Strategic Trust-Building

Updates and Analysis on Ukraine Crisis - April 8, 2014

EWI offers a daily situation report on Ukraine's unfolding crisis, featuring key developments and links to analytical pieces from foreign policy experts around the world.  

Key Developments

White House Press Secretary Jay Carney said Monday that Russia and the U.S. are discussing ways to de-escalate tensions over Ukraine. According to White House spokesman Jay Carney, "we are continuing to engage in a dialogue with Russia over moving down the road of diplomatic resolution.”

U.S. State Department spokesperson Jen Psaki said that the two countries have agreed to hold direct talks involving representatives from the U.S., Russia, the EU and Ukraine to search for a peaceful resolution to the crisis in the next 10 days.

Any further efforts to destabilize Ukraine will incur costs for Russia, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry warned in a phone call with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. Kerry said that the U.S. is watching events in eastern Ukraine with "great concern," and noted that they "do not appear to be a spontaneous set of events.” Kerry urged Russia to "publicly disavow the activities of separatists, saboteurs and provocateurs," according to Psaki. 

 

Internal Security News:

  • Russian commentary suggests that unlike the case of Crimea, protests in other predominantly Russian areas of Ukraine aim to achieve a federal system in Ukraine.
     
  • According to Russian news agency ITAR-TASS, participants in a meeting in Kharkiv proclaimed an independent state named the Kharkov People's Republic. They stated that the decision would take effect after being approved by a regional referendum.
     
  • As the Ukrainian government moved to restore order in the cities of Kharkiv and Donestk, it threatened tougher measures against separatist agitators.  
     
  • Ukrainian special forces have been deployed to the region after authorities reported the capture of a Russian special forces officer involved in provocateur activities. The moves followed a declaration of independence or autonomy from a small group of demonstrators in Donetsk.
     
  • In Kharkiv, an occupied building that had been set on fire was cleared of protesters by authorities who said they did not use firearms in the operation. 
     
  • In Donetsk, authorities surrounded the occupied government building, but indicated that no effort would be made to storm the building. 

 

Constitutional Reform News:

  • At a meeting to review security plans for Eastern Ukraine, Ukrainian Prime Minister Yatsenyuk said that the proposal for federalism as part of constitutional reform is an attempt to destroy the country’s unity.  
     
  • Deputies of the Donetsk regional council proclaimed formation of an independent and sovereign Donetsk People’s Republic with an Act on State Sovereignty of the Donetsk People’s Republic. Further, the regional council transformed itself into a Council (Soviet) of the Republic.

 

Diplomatic Interaction News:

  • The Russian Foreign Ministry reaffirmed its offer of international assistance to start a national dialogue between Ukraine’s political and regional forces, and stated its preparedness to take part in efforts alongside foreign partners. However, Russia also issued a statement warning Ukraine that any use of force in the east could provoke civil war.
     
  • Latvia followed Lithuania in banning Russian state television broadcasts about the Ukraine crisis, which they fear may threaten national security interests.
     
  • Canada expelled junior military attachés and warned Russia that it will face increasing sanctions if it does not change course. Foreign Affairs Minister John Baird issued a statement condemning Russia's "provocative actions in Crimea and elsewhere." 
     
  • The leader of Moldova's pro-Moscow breakaway region, Transdniestr, urged the country's politicians to start discussions that would allow it to formally join Russia.
     
  • Russia did not attend a meeting on Ukraine held by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe.
     
  • The EU is close to freezing plans to complete the $50bn (£30bn) South Stream gas pipeline traveling from Russia through the Black Sea, the first serious EU action to punish the Kremlin for seizing Crimea. Key details emerged in a leaked briefing by the European Commission's chief, Jose Manuel Barroso, to Bulgarian politicians.
     
  • The European Space Agency will not follow NASA’s lead in breaking cooperation with Russian partners. 
     
  • G20 finance chiefs are expected to discuss financial aid to Ukraine at their meeting later this week, Japan's Finance Minister Taro Aso said Tuesday.

Governance and Economy News: 

  • Russia's Ukrainian imports in the period from January to February 2014 decreased by 30.5 percent to $1.59 billion USD–compared to $2.289 billion a year ago–the RF Federal Customs Service (FCS) has reported.

 

Updates and Analysis on Ukraine Crisis - April 7, 2014

EWI offers a daily situation report on Ukraine's unfolding crisis, featuring key developments and links to analytical pieces from foreign policy experts around the world. 

Key Developments

April 5: Several thousand pro-Russian demonstrators attacked a prosecutor’s office in the town of Mariupol in Donetsk, followed by attacks on Ukrainian government buildings in two Eastern cities–Donetsk and Lukhansk. The attacks followed the Ukrainian government’s announcement that it had arrested members of an armed gang plotting to seize power on April 10 in Lukhansk (the main city of the country’s easternmost province).

April 6: President Oleksandr Turchynov's office said that he had canceled a planned visit to Lithuania this week to take charge over the developing situation in eastern Ukraine. ITAR-TASS subsequently reported that security service officers yielded to  protesters’ demands and released six arrested activists from a pro-Russian organization in Lukhansk.

April 7: Pro-Russian activists occupying regional administration buildings in Donetsk have declared that they represent the “Dontesk People’s Republic” and indicated their intent to hold a secession referendum by May 11. They have requested troop support from Russian President Putin. Meanwhile, Ukrainian PM Yatsenyuk accused Russia of sowing unrest as a pretext for invading the eastern provinces, and accused Putin of planning “to divide Ukraine into parts and to turn part of Ukraine into a territory of slavery under a Russian dictatorship.” In the Crimean village of Novofedorivka, a Russian soldier shot and killed an off-duty Ukrainian naval officer in what appears to have been a personal argument. 

 

Government Statements:

Speech by NATO Deputy Secretary General Ambassador Alexander Vershbow to the 21st International Conference on Euro-Atlantic Security, Krakow, Poland, “A new strategic reality in Europe,” 4 April 2014

Speech by the Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and his answers to questions during joint press conference with the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Kazakhstan, Erlan Idrisov, 3 April 2014

 

News Items:

James G. Neuger, “NATO Condemns Russia’s ‘Propaganda’ as Lavrov Cries Foul,” Bloomberg Businessweek, 4 April 2014

Mark Silva, “Obama’s Russian Reset Lost in Putin’s Translations,” Bloomberg Businessweek, 4 April 2014

Thomas Grove, “Russia recalls military representative in rebuke to NATO,” Reuters, 3 April 2014

Simon Shuster, “Ukraine and Russia Demonize Each Other With Claims of Terrorism,” Time, 3 April 2014

Kiev Ignored Independent Sniper Case Assessment – Lavrov,” RIA Novosti, 4 April 2014

Natalia Zinets, Richard Balmforth and Paul Ingrassia, “Ukraine PM says will stick to austerity despite Moscow pressure,” Chicago Tribune, 4 April 2014

Agence France-Press, “Ukraine eyes coal after Russian gas price hike,” GlobalPost, 4 April 2014

Kathy Lally, “Pro-Russian protests diminish in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk region,” The Washington Post, 3 April 2014

Kenneth Rapoza, “Russia Helped Ukraine, But Now Ukraine Needs More, IMF's Lagarde Says,” Forbes, 3 April 2014

EU must be ready with Russia sanctions over Ukraine: UK,” Reuters, 4 April 2014.

Fyodor Lukyanov, “Does Russia need America?,” Russia Beyond the Headlines, 4 April 2014

Sir Rodric Braithwaite, “Is the crisis in Ukraine a plum ripe for picking?,” Russia Beyond the Politics, 3 April 2014

Updates and Analysis on Ukraine Crisis - April 4, 2014

EWI offers a daily situation report on Ukraine's unfolding crisis, featuring key developments and links to analytical pieces from foreign policy experts around the world. 

Key Developments

 

Government Statements:

Speech by NATO Deputy Secretary General Ambassador Alexander Vershbow to the 21st International Conference on Euro-Atlantic Security, Krakow, Poland, “A new strategic reality in Europe,” 4 April 2014

Speech by the Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and his answers to questions during joint press conference with the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Kazakhstan, Erlan Idrisov, 3 April 2014

 

News Items:

James G. Neuger, “NATO Condemns Russia’s ‘Propaganda’ as Lavrov Cries Foul,” Bloomberg Businessweek, 4 April 2014

Mark Silva, “Obama’s Russian Reset Lost in Putin’s Translations,” Bloomberg Businessweek, 4 April 2014

Thomas Grove, “Russia recalls military representative in rebuke to NATO,” Reuters, 3 April 2014

Simon Shuster, “Ukraine and Russia Demonize Each Other With Claims of Terrorism,” Time, 3 April 2014

Kiev Ignored Independent Sniper Case Assessment – Lavrov,” RIA Novosti, 4 April 2014

Natalia Zinets, Richard Balmforth and Paul Ingrassia, “Ukraine PM says will stick to austerity despite Moscow pressure,” Chicago Tribune, 4 April 2014

Agence France-Press, “Ukraine eyes coal after Russian gas price hike,” GlobalPost, 4 April 2014

Kathy Lally, “Pro-Russian protests diminish in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk region,” The Washington Post, 3 April 2014

Kenneth Rapoza, “Russia Helped Ukraine, But Now Ukraine Needs More, IMF's Lagarde Says,” Forbes, 3 April 2014

EU must be ready with Russia sanctions over Ukraine: UK,” Reuters, 4 April 2014.

Fyodor Lukyanov, “Does Russia need America?,” Russia Beyond the Headlines, 4 April 2014

Sir Rodric Braithwaite, “Is the crisis in Ukraine a plum ripe for picking?,” Russia Beyond the Politics, 3 April 2014

Updates and Analysis on Ukraine Crisis - April 3, 2014

EWI offers a daily situation report on Ukraine's unfolding crisis, featuring key developments and links to analytical pieces from foreign policy experts around the world. 

Key Developments

  • Security chiefs in Ukraine accused former President Yanukovych of ordering the February shooting of anti-government protesters in Kiev. These charges follow the arrest of 12 members of the Berkut riot police, who were responsible for more than 100 shooting deaths.
  • According to senior U.S. defense officials, the U.S. Navy is sending a ship to the Black Sea within the coming week to show continued support for Ukraine. The ship will take part in multilateral exercises. There is only one other U.S. Navy ship in the Black Sea, which was deployed on March 21.

 

News and Analysis

Alexei Anishchuk, “Russian Diplomat: US Should ‘Practice Yoga, Stick to Food-Combining Diets,’ And Forget Crimea’s Annexation”, Business Insider, 4/3/14

Michelle Arrouas, “NATO Chief Says Russia Could Attack Ukraine Without Warning”, Time, 4/3/14

C.J. Chivers and David M. Herszenhorn, “In Crimea, Russia Showcases a Rebooted Army”, The New York Times, 4/2/14

Vladimir Soldatkin, “Russia Hikes Gas Prices for Ukraine by 80 Percent”, Reuters, 4/3/14

Tom Cohen, “Is Crimea gone? Annexation No Longer the Focus of Ukraine Crisis”, CNN, 4/1/14

Andrew Roth, “Ukraine Moves to Disarm Paramilitary Groups”, The New York Times, 4/1/14

 

 

Updates and Analysis on Ukraine Crisis - April 2, 2014

EWI offers a daily situation report on Ukraine's unfolding crisis, featuring key developments and links to analytical pieces from foreign policy experts around the world.

Key Developments

 

Government Statements

John Kerry, “Press Availability at NATO,” U.S. Department of State, 1 April 2014

NATO takes measures to reinforce collective defence, agrees on support for Ukraine,” NATO, 1 April 2014

 

Articles

Carol Kriel and Vladimir Isachenkov, “AP Interview: Yanuykovych Hopes for Crimea’s Return,” Associated Press, 2 April 2014

Russia steps up pressure on Ukraine to disarm far-right,” Reuters, 2 April 2014

David Frum, “Russia’s Plans to Partition Ukraine,” The Atlantic, 2 April 2014

Ukraine Constitution reform unlikely without teamwork with society – Russian FM,” ITAR-TASS, 2 April 2014

Rajan Menon, “Why the Ukraine Crisis Won’t Save NATO,” The National Interest, 1 April 2014

Robert Farley, “No, F-22s Can’t Save Ukraine,” Medium – War is Boring, 1 April 2014

Adrian Croft, “Russia could achieve Ukraine incursion in 3-5 days: NATO general,” Reuters, 1 April 2014

Michael R. Gordon, “NATO to Firm Up Its Presence in Eastern Europe as It Halts Cooperation with Russia,” The New York Times, 1 April 2014

Andrew E. Kramer, “Russia Tightens Pressure on Ukraine with Rise in Natural Gas Price,” The New York Times, 1 April 2014

Tom Cohen, “Is Crimea Gone?  Annexation no longer the focus of Ukraine crisis,” CNN, 1 April 2014

Agnes Lovasz, “Dashed Ikea Dreams Show Decades Lost to Bribery in Ukraine,” Bloomberg, 31 March 2014

Alexander Kliment, “Putin’s Fairy Tale: Why Russia Will Try – and Fail – To Build a New Empire,” Foreign Affairs, 31 March 2014

Eugene Rumer, Andrew S. Weiss, Ulrich Speck, Lina Khatib, George Perkovich, and Douglas H. Paal, “What Are the Global Implications of the Ukraine Crisis?,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 27 March 2014

Updates and Analysis on Ukraine Crisis - March 31, 2014

EWI offers a daily situation report on Ukraine's unfolding crisis, featuring key developments and links to analytical pieces from foreign policy experts around the world.

Key Developments

Government Statements

John Kerry, “Press Availability – Paris, France,” U.S. Department of State, March 30, 2014

Readout of the President’s Call with President Putin,” The White House, March 28, 2014

General Assembly Adopts Resolution Calling Upon States not to Recognize Changes in Status of Crimea Region – 100 Votes in Favour, 11 Against, 58 Abstentions for Text on Ukraine,” United Nations General Assembly, March 27, 2014

 

Articles and Analysis

Paul Taylor, “Ten Ways the Ukraine Crisis May Change the World,” Reuters, March 31, 2014

Robert Spalding III, “America’s Secret Weapon to Stop Russia,” The National Interest, March 31, 2014

BBC, “Ukraine angered by Russia PM Medvedev’s visit to Crimea,” BBC News, March 31, 2014

Brad Knickerbocker, “Putin, Obama maneuver over crisis in Ukraine. Whose advantage?,” The Cristian Science Monitor, March 30, 2014

Anne Gearan, “Kerry, Russia’s Lavrov Fail to Reach Deal Over Ukraine, Say They Will Keep Talking,” The Washington Post, March 30, 2014

Nick Gass, “Russian Ambassador Says ‘Crimea is a Part’ of Russia,” Politico, March 30, 2014

Simon Tisdall and Rory Carroll, “Russia Sets Terms for Ukraine Deal as 40,000 Troops Mass on Border,” The Guardian, March 30, 2014

Andrew E. Kramer, “Ukraine’s Hopes Riding on Chocolatier,” The New York Times, March 29, 2014

Louis Charbonneau, “Russia Threatened Countries Ahead of UN Vote on Ukraine–Envoys,” Reuters, March 28, 2014

Jonathan Weisman, “Kremlin Finds a Defender in Congress,” The New York Times, March 28, 2014

Jonathan Marcus, “Analysis: Could Russia Absorb Eastern Ukraine?,” BBC News, March 28, 2014

James Traub, “The Enemy We’ve Been Waiting For,” Foreign Policy, March 27, 2014

Nate Jones, “Vladimir Channels the Gipper,” Foreign Policy, March 27, 2014

Clifford Krauss, “Potential Crackdown on Russia Risks Also Punishing Western Oil Companies,” The New York Times, March 27, 2014

BBC, "Vladimir Putin: The Rebuilding of ‘Soviet’ Russia,” BBC News, March 27, 2014

 

Updates and Analysis on Ukraine Crisis - March 27, 2014

EWI offers a daily situation report on Ukraine's unfolding crisis, featuring key developments and links to analytical pieces from foreign policy experts around the world.   

Key Developments 

  • The IMF agreed to $14-$18 billion in loans to Ukraine . Subject to approval at April’s IMF  board meeting, the two-year package offers financial support to prevent a Ukrainian default, in exchange for reforms that will unlock additional bilateral and multilateral assistance, totaling up to $27 billion. The roadmap for reform includes:
     
    • An end to subsidized gas, with a 79 percent price increase as of April 1, and the removal of all energy subsidies by 2016.
       
    • A flexible exchange rate, replacing Ukraine’s current currency peg, as well as fiscal reforms to lower the national deficit.
       
    • New anti-corruption legislation.
       
  • The U.N. General Assembly passed a resolution declaring that Crimea's annexation referendum is invalid. It affirms Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, and calls upon states, international organizations  and agencies not to recognize any change in Crimea’s status. The vote was 100 in favor and 11 opposed, with 58 abstentions. The General Assembly resolution is not legally-binding.
     
  • A package that combines Ukrainian aid and Russian sanctions passed both the House and Senate, clearing the way for White House approval.
     
  • Yulia Tymoshenko, former Ukrainian Prime Minister, announced that she will run for president in May’s election. As the leader of Ukraine’s “Fatherland” party,  Tymoshenko was released from jail following the ouster of former President Victor Yanukovych. In a press conference announcing her candidacy, Tymoshenko declared President Putin as Ukraine’s “number one enemy.”
     
  • In order to sidestep U.S. sanctions, President Putin announced that Russia will develop a new payment network, allowing its citizens to bypass U.S.-based systems.

 

Government Statements

Full Transcript: President Obama Gives Speech Addressing Europe, Russia on March 26,” The Washington Post, 26 March 2014

 

News and Analysis

Ian Bremmer, “A Tortured Policy Toward Russia” (Op-Ed), The New York Times, 26 March 2014

Natalia Zinets, “IMF Throws Ukraine Financial Lifeline, Russian Economy to Slump,” Reuters, 27 March 2014

Rumer et al, “What are the Global Implications of the Ukraine Crisis?” (Q&A), Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 27 March 2014

Robert Kahn, “Ukraine and IMF: Step Forward Now,” Council on Foreign Relations, 27 March 2014

The Economist, “America and the IMF: Dereliction of Duty,” The Economist, 29 March 2014 (print edition)

Ian Wallace, “Ukraine Crisis, Target Breach and Edward Snowden: What’s Next for U.S. Cyber Policy?” Brookings, 25 March 2014

James Surowiecki, “Putin’s Power Play,” The New Yorker, 24 March 2014

Updates and Analysis on Ukraine Crisis - March 26, 2014

EWI offers a daily situation report on Ukraine's unfolding crisis, featuring key developments and links to analytical pieces from foreign policy experts around the world.  

Key Developments

  • At a news conference following a meeting with European leaders, President Obama stressed that all European member nations have the responsibility to contribute to NATO in order to ensure its ability to deter an expansionist Russia. He also expressed concern about some members’ declining defense budgets.
  • During meetings in Brussels, President Obama and European leaders have stressed the importance of Europe becoming energy independent  as a means of isolating Russia. While European leaders pressed the president to reduce trade restrictions and increase U.S. gas exports, he emphasized that Europe should work to develop its own energy resources.
    • Officials from the U.S. and Europe will meet next week to continue discussions on how to reduce Europe’s dependence on Russian energy supplies; discussions also will cover negotiations on the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership.
    • Ukraine has also begun efforts to reduce dependency on Russian energy, through negotiations to import natural gas from the European Union.
  • Talks between Ukraine and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are winding down today, as the IMF is expected to offer an economic reform and aid program soon. Ukraine has asked for a loan of $15 to $20 billion. Any agreement would only be a preliminary deal and will likely include smaller amounts and requirements of “strong prior actions” to be implemented in Ukraine before any funds would be released, due to previously failed loan attempts last year.
  • The Swiss government, which holds the rotating chair of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), released a statement condemning the Russian annexation of Crimea. Switzerland will not adopt the sanctions against Russia imposed by the European Union, although it may impose similar measures in the future. The statement also announced that Switzerland will take measures to prevent Russians and Ukrainians from using Swiss territory to circumvent the current sanctions.
  • Congress is likely to pass the U.S. aid package to Ukraine by Thursday, according to Senator Harry Reid of Nevada.
    • Senate Democrats conceded to House Republicans to drop the proposed reforms to the IMF from the Ukrainian aid package. President Obama supported the reforms, as the U.S. is only nation among those he is meeting with in Europe that has not ratified the changes.
  • UK Prime Minister David Cameron has warned that if Russia invades Eastern Ukraine, the EU is ready to impose sanctions targeting EU-Russian trade and Russia’s energy, financial services and arms sectors.

Government Statements

“Transcript: Obama addresses NATO strength at March 26 news conference in Brussels:”

Articles and Analysis

Carol E. Lee and Matthew Dalton, “U.S., EU Aim to Cut Europe's Reliance on Russian Energy,” The Wall Street Journal, 26 March 2014.

Daryna Krasnolutska, “Ukraine Nears End of IMF Aid Talks as Obama Warns Russia,” Bloomberg, 26 March 2014.

Darya Korsunskaya, “Crimea Only a Temporary Distraction from Russia's Economic Woes, Expert Says,” Reuters, 26 March 2014.

Mike Dorning and Julianna Goldman, “Obama Deflecting Criticism Calls Russia a Regional Power,” BloombergBusinessweek, 26 March 2014.

Associated Press, “Congress on Track to Pass Ukraine Aid Bill,” The Washington Post, 26 March 2014.

Ayesha Rascoe, “U.S. lawmakers mull speedier gas exports to help Ukraine, Europe,” Reuters, 25 March 2014.

Luke Harding, “Shooting of Far-Right Leader Threatens to Raise Tensions in Ukraine,” The Guardian, 25 March 2014.

Peter Spiegel  and Neil Buckley, “IMF Rushes through $15bn Ukraine Bailout,” Financial Times, 26 March 2014.

Reuters, “China Says Supports International Financial Aid for Ukraine,” Reuters, 26 March 2014

Anne-Marie Slaughter, “The War of Words over Ukraine Plays into Putin’s Hands,” The Washington Post, 25 March.

Michael A. Levi and David M. Rubenstein, “Hot Air About American Gas Will Not Scare Putin,” Council on Foreign Relations, 25 March 2014.

 

 

 

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