Key Developments

• In a joint statement entitled The Hague Declaration, the leaders of the G7 reaffirmed their support for the sovereignty, territorial integrity and independence of Ukraine and refused to recognize the results of the Crimean referendum and Russia’s annexation of Crimea.
   
  • The G7 leaders called on Russia to adhere to its international obligations and to utilize diplomatic measures to de-escalate the situation.
     
  • The declaration definitively called off the summit originally scheduled to be held in Sochi in June and suspended Russia’s membership in the G8.
     
  • The document voiced strong support for Ukraine and its people, as well as the government’s reform efforts.
     
  • The declaration further supported the IMF’s central role in assisting, reforming and integrating the Ukrainian economy.
     
• Russia and Ukraine has held talks for the first time since the start of the crisis. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov met with his Ukrainian counterpart Andriy Deshchytsia on the sidelines of the Nuclear Security Summit at The Hague.
   
• President Obama met with Kazakh President Nazarbayev yesterday at The Hague. While the details of the meeting have not been released, Kazakhstan is a close Russian ally and a member of the Russia-led customs union.
   
• Ukraine has been accused of retaliating against Russia’s annexation of Crimea by inducing blackouts in a number of Crimean cities via sharp reductions in the peninsula’s electricity supply. Crimea receives most of its electricity from mainland Ukraine.
   
• Pilloried for the Ukrainian military’s response to the Russian invasion of Crimea, acting Defense Minister Ihor Tenyukh has resigned and been replaced by Mykhailo Koval, a general commanding the Ukrainian border guards.
   
• Vice President Biden and Romanian President Basescu spoke on the phone yesterday about the ongoing crisis in Ukraine. Biden reaffirmed the U.S.’s steadfast commitment to Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty. Article 5 or the principle of collective defense provides that an armed attack on a NATO member will be considered an armed attack on all NATO members.
   
• Legislation for a U.S. aid package to Ukraine has advanced in the Senate. The bill, tied up in longstanding partisan disputes over a reformed IMF structure granting additional power to developing countries, offers Ukraine $1 billion in loans and $100 million in direct aid.  Another $50 million is slated to strengthen democratic institutions, improve rule of law and civil organizations and to help Ukraine recover assets stolen by the previous, deposed government.
   
• A U.S. poll conducted by CBS found that 61% of Americans believe that the U.S. does not have the responsibility to do something regarding the situation in Crimea.

Government Statements

“G7 statement – The Hague Declaration,” The White House, March 24, 2014

“Readout of the Vice President’s Call with Romanian President Traian Basescu,” The White House, March 24, 2014

Articles

Anthony Faiola, “A ghost of World War II history haunts Ukraine’s standoff with Russia,” The Washington Post, March 25, 2014

Sarah Dutton, Jennifer De Pinto, Anthony Salvanto and Fred Backus, “Poll: Most say U.S. doesn’t have a responsibility in Ukraine,” CBS News, March 25, 2014

Olena Goncharova, “Parliament names new defense minister as Turchynov calls Russia’s takeover of Criema ‘our general tragedy’,” Kyiv Post, March 25, 2014

Jim Acosta, “U.S., other powers kick Russia out of G8,” CNN, March 24, 2014

“Crimea crisis: Russia and Ukraine hold first meeting,” BBC News, March 24, 2014

Jonathan Weisman, “Aid Package for Ukraine Advances in the Senate,” The New York Times, March 24, 2014

Jeffrey Lewis, “The Ukes and Their Nukes – Why the Bomb wouldn’t have helped Kiev protect Crimea from Russia,” Foreign Policy, March 24, 2014

Stephen M. Walt, “Would You Die For That Country? – Why the United States needs to think twice before calling Ukraine an ally,” Foreign Policy, March 24, 2014

Ian Brzezinski, “Three ways NATO can bolster Ukraine’s security,” The Washington Post, March 24, 2014             

Elisabeth Brocking, “Monitoring Moscow’s Victory – Why International Monitors in Ukraine Benefits Russia, Not the West,” Foreign Affairs, March 24, 2014

_

Photo Credit: BiLK_Thorn

Key Developments

• As Russian troops seized another Ukrainian military base in Crimea, interim Ukrainian President Okelsandr Turchynov has ordered the withdrawal of all Ukrainian armed forces from Crimea.
   
• In an appearance on ABC’s This Week, interim Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Deshchytsia warned that Russia’s latest provocation increased the likelihood of war.
   
• The Russian Federal Drug Control Service (FSKN) announced on March 21 that U.S. sanctions targeted against its director, Viktor Ivanov, would preclude any cooperation with the U.S., including Afghan narcotrafficking.  The statement further blamed the U.S. and NATO for the explosive increase of illegal drug production in Afghanistan.
   
• Visa and Mastercard temporarily blocked transactions from two Russian banks jointly owned by two Russian oligarchs, Boris and Arkady Rotenberg, sanctioned by the U.S. government.  Transactions were restarted after both credit card companies received clarifications from the U.S. government that, at present, companies managed by individuals sanctioned have not been targeted.
   
• President Obama is in Europe to discuss the Crimea crisis with President Xi Jinping of China and the leaders of the G7 on the sidelines of the Nuclear Security Summit.
   
  • In a speech before Rembrandt’s The Night Watch at the Rijksmuseum in Amsterdam, President Obama stated that “Europe and America are united in our support of the Ukrainian government and the Ukrainian people.”
     
  • The leaders of the G7 are likely to discuss additional sanctions against Russia and the June meeting of the G8 originally scheduled to be held in Sochi.
     
• A prominent Russian politician called for Ukraine to be partitioned by its neighbors along the lines of the infamous 1939 Molotov-Ribbentrop pact.  The 1939 Molotov-Ribbentrop pact between the Soviet Union and Nazi Germany was a non-aggression pact that also divided the territories of several Eastern European countries, including Romania, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and Finland into Soviet and Nazi spheres of influences.
   
• Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev has said that Crimea may be granted the status of a special economic zone
   
• Afghan President Hamid Karzai has publicly backed the Russian annexation of Crimea.  In a statement released by his office, Karzai said that Afghanistan “respect[s] the decision the people of Crimea took through a recent referendum that considers Crimea as part of the Russian Federation.”  Afghanistan becomes only the third nation, after Syria and Venezuela, to recognize Russia’s annexation of Crimea.
   
• In the face of tightening Western sanctions, Russia is likely to fall into a recession.

Government Statements

Statement from Russian Federal Drug Control Service on sanctions levied against Viktor Ivanov (in Russian)

Articles

Michael D. Shear, Alison Smale and David M. Herszenhorn, “Obama, in Europe, Says Allies ‘United’ on Ukraine,” The New York Times, March 24, 2014

Boriana Milanova and Victoria Butenko, “Ukraine orders Crimea troops withdrawal as Russia seizes naval base,” CNN, March 24, 2014

Lidia Kelly, “Russia politician proposes new division of Ukraine,” Reuters, March 24, 2014

“Crimea may get special economic zone status – Medvedev,” The Voice of Russia, March 24, 2014

Andra Timu, Henry Meyer and Olga Tanas, “Russia Facing Recession as Sanctions Likely to Intensify,” Bloomberg, March 24, 2014

Ted Galen Carpenter, “Are the Baltic States Next?,” The National Interest, March 24, 2014

“G7 leaders discuss Crimea crisis at The Hague,” EuroNews, March 24, 2014

Michael A. McFaul, “Confronting Putin’s Russia,” The New York Times, March 23, 2014

Matthew Rosenberg, “Breaking with the West, Afghan Leader Supports Russia’s Annexation of Crimea,” The New York Times, March 23, 2014

J. Dana Stuster, “Ukrainian Foreign Minister Says Chances of War Are ‘Growing,’” Foreign Policy, March 23, 2014

Scott Wilson, “Obama’s aim to shift U.S. foreign policy runs up against an old Cold War rival,” The Washington Post, March 23, 2014

Kathrin Hille, “Visa and MasterCard restart payments for Russian banks,” The Financial Times, March 23, 2014

James S. Robbins, “Would America Go to War with Russia?,” The National Interest, March 22, 2014

“Sanctions destroy anti-trafficking cooperation with US-Russian drug agency,” RT, March 21, 2014

Key Developments

• Ukraine has signed parts of the EU Association Agreement, which was rejected by former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych in November of last year. The signed sections call for stronger political dialogue and security cooperation, but leave out measures dealing with trade, law enforcement, anticorruption and macroeconomics. The EU remains committed to the remainder of the package, which is likely to be signed by Ukraine after the presidential elections in May.
   
  • The EU has also announced that it will move up the deadlines for similar agreements with Georgia and Moldova, a move that will likely inflame tensions with Russia.
     
• The European Union has increased pressure on Russia over its actions in Ukraine:
   
• The Council of the European Union has imposed sanctions and travel bans on 12 additional individuals as a response to “actions undermining or threatening the territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence of Ukraine.”
   
• European leaders have canceled an EU-Russia summit planned for June and announced that meetings between Russia and individual countries will also be canceled.
   
• EU leaders have warned that a separate EU monitoring mission will be sent to Ukraine if Russia continues to block the mission from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE);
   
• Germany will suspend approval of all defense-related exports to Russia;
   
• France has suspended "the majority of its military cooperation with Russia,” according to Defense Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian.
   
• Following unanimous passage in Russia’s upper house of Parliament, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed legislation to complete the annexation of Crimea.
   
• Russia retaliated against further sanctions announced on Thursday by banning nine U.S. lawmakers from entering Russia, including Senate Majority Leader Harry M. Reid (D-Nev.), House Speaker John A. Boehner (R-Ohio), Senator John McCain (R-Ariz.) and three top Obama aides. A statement published on Russia’s Foreign Ministry website read: “We have warned repeatedly that using sanctions is a double-edged sword and will hit the United States back.”
   
• Acting Ukrainian President Oleksandr Turchynov stated that there is a “real threat of invasion” from Russia, following interim Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk’s warning on Thursday that any move to claim further Ukrainian territory would trigger an “appropriate response,” including from the Ukrainian military.
   
• Next week, President Obama will travel to Europe to meet with allies in the forums of the European Union, NATO, and Group of Seven industrialized nations (the G8 is no longer recognized, due to the exclusion of Russia from the group).
   
• Ukraine will appeal to the United Nations to declare Crimea a demilitarized zone and take measures to remove Russian forces.

Government Statements

Official Journal of the European Union, implementing Decision 2014/145/CFSP concerning restrictive measures in respect of actions undermining or threatening the territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence of Ukraine

Statement by President of the European Council Herman Van Rompuy at the occasion of the signing ceremony of the political provisions of the Association Agreement between the European Union and Ukraine, March 21, 2014

Conclusions on Ukraine, Approved by the European Council, March 20, 2014

Letter -- Blocking Property of Additional Persons Contributing to the Situation in Ukraine, From President Obama, March 20, 2014

Comment by the Information and Press Department of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs regarding the Budapest Memorandum of 1994, March 19, 2014

News Articles

Matthew Dalton, Laurence Norman, and Naftali Bendavid, “EU, Ukraine Sign Part of Economic Deal,” The Wall Street Journal, March 21, 2014

Carol E. Lee, Gregory L. White, Jared A. Favole, “U.S., Russia Trade Sanctions Over Crimea,” The Wall Street Journal, March 21, 2014

Jake Rudnitsky and Volodymyr Verbyany, “Putin’s Words No Solace as East Ukraine Braces for Storm,” BloombergBusinessweek, March 21, 2014

Timothy Heritage and Vladimir Soldatkin, “Putin looks to Asia as West threatens to isolate Russia,” Reuters, March 21, 2014

Andrew E. Kramer, “Ukraine Sets Deadline for Militias to Surrender Illegal Guns,” The New York Times, March 20, 2014

Alec Luhn, “Trade war over Crimea looms as Russia closes Ukrainian-owned sweet factory,” The Guardian, March 20, 2014

Roger Runningen, James G. Neuger and Gregory Viscusi, “Russia Pressed on Ukraine as EU Joins U.S. on Sanctions,” Bloomberg, March 21, 2014

Brett Wolf, “Banks must brace for Russia sanctions row, warn US industry officials,” Reuters, March 20, 2014

Shaun Walker, Alec Luhn, “Crimea crisis: US sanction list is who's who of Vladimir Putin's inner circle,” The Guardian, March 20, 2014

Steven Lee Meyers, Alan Cowell, and Andrew Higgins, “Putin Cool to Idea of Further Retaliation Over Sanctions,” The New York Times, March 21, 2014

Rick Gladstone, “Russia Hints at Using Iran Talks as Leverage,” The New York Times, March 20, 2014

Key Developments

• The lower house of the Russian parliament has approved the treaty annexing Crimea by a vote of 443 to 1.
   
• Ukraine has threatened to leave the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), a Russian-led regional organization.
   
• On Wednesday, Russia began issuing passports to residents of Crimea, declaring that they had become citizens of Russia after the treaty was signed.
   
• In an appearance at the Brookings Institute, NATO Secretary General Anders Rasmussen declared Russian actions in Crimea to be “gravest threat” to European security since the Cold War.  Rasmussen went on to say that NATO was weighing assistance to Ukraine.  NATO has canceled plans to escort Russian ships ferrying chemicals from Syria and staff-level meetings between NATO and Russian officials.
   
• President Obama gave a six-minute statement from the White House on the Crimean crisis:
  • Obama condemned conscious decisions made by the Russian government, Obama detailed additional sanctions against more senior officials of the Russian government, individuals with significant resources who provide support to the Russian government and a bank that provides material support to these individuals.
     
  • The U.S. Treasury identified the 20 additional individuals, including senior Russian legislative leaders, and the Rossiya Bank as those targeted by the sanctions.
     
  • Obama revealed that he signed a new executive order allowing for sanctions against key sectors of the Russian economy.
     
• European leaders are also weighing additional sanctions.
   
• Japan has suspended investment and visa talks with Russia.  In a news conference, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga declared that the “recognition of Crimean independence by Russia violates Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and is regrettable.”

Government Statements

Barack Obama, “President Obama Statement on Russian Intervention in Ukraine,” C-SPAN, March 20, 2014

“Ukraine-related designations – Specially Designated Nationals List Update,” U.S. Department of the Treasury, March 20, 2014

“Remarks to the Press by Vice President Joe Biden, President Dalia Grybauskaite of Lithuania, and President Andris Berzins of Latvia,” The White House, March 19, 2014

Articles

Kimberly Marten, "Vladimir Putin: Ethnic Russian Nationalist," The Washington Post, March 19, 2014

Willy Englund and Kathy Lally, “Russian parliament moves to ratify Crimea takeover; Obama announces new sanctions,” The Washington Post, March 20, 2014

Janine Davidson, “Thinking the Unthinkable in Ukraine,” The National Interest, March 20, 2014

Humphrey Hawksley, “Ukraine crisis: Could Trans-Dniester be next?,” BBC News, March 20, 2014

Terrence McCoy, “Is Crimea part of Russia?  Ukraine?  Welcome to Wikipedia’s quandary,” The Washington Post, March 20, 2014

“Ukrainian ultras put aside differences in demonstration of solidarity,” The Guardian, March 20, 2014

Gareth Evans, “The Ukraine Nuclear Delusion,” Project Syndicate, March 19, 2014

David Alexander and Krista Hughes, “U.S.-Russia sanctions rhetoric shakes companies, investors,” Reuters, March 19, 2014

Mark Landler, “With Russia, as With China, Unnerved U.S. Allies Seek Reassurances,” The New York Times, March 19, 2014

Job C. Henning and William Courtney, “Don’t Just Sanction Russia, Deter It,” The National Interest, March 18, 2014

“Japan to impose sanctions on Russia for Crimea move,” Reuters, March 17, 2014

Key Developments

• This morning, disguised Russian troops, supported by local militia, stormed and captured the Ukrainian naval headquarters in Sevastopol. Rear Admiral Sergei Haiduk, the base commander, was captured along with a number of his men.
   
• Hours after President Putin of Russia reclaimed Crimea as part of Russia, a Ukrainian military mapping office near Simferopol was attacked by pro-Russian forces.  One Ukrainian soldier was killed and another wounded. Ukrainian Prime Minister Yastenyuk has characterized the attack and killing of a Ukrainian soldier as a war crime.
   
• Recognizing the inability of its soldiers to continue resisting in Crimea, Ukraine is preparing to evacuate all of its military personnel and their families.
   
• President Obama has invited the leaders of the G-7 to a meeting on March 24 on the sidelines of the Nuclear Security Summit being held next week in The Hague.
   
• President Xi Jinping of China, who is travelling to Europe next week, is expected to meet with President Obama at The Hague to discuss the Crimean crisis.
   
• In a speech before the British Parliament, Prime Minister David Cameron has warned that Russia could be expelled from the G8. The U.K. has already suspended military cooperation with Russia.
   
• In yesterday’s phone conversation between President Obama and Chancellor Merkel of Germany, both leaders condemned Russia’s move to annex Crimea as a violation of international law, and Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity. They agreed on the need to send international observers from the OSCE and the UN to Ukraine immediately, as well as the need to stabilize the Ukrainian economy.
   
• After meeting with Prime Minister Tusk of Poland, Vice President Biden also met yesterday with Presidents Komorowski of Poland and Ilves of Estonia.
   
  • Polish President Komorowski warned that Russian aggressions were a result of a quadrupling of Russia’s military budget over the last eight years, while many European countries had cut theirs. Seeking to reassure these Eastern European NATO allies, Biden responded, “You have an ally whose budget is larger than the next 10 nations in the world combined.”
     
  • “If the international community does not stand up, then the international community will collapse,” warned Estonian President Ilves in remarks with Biden, “The kind of behavior we see is dangerous for the world.”
     
  • Biden also raised the prospect of the rotation of additional U.S. forces to the region for military exercises.
     
• Vice President Joe Biden traveled overnight to Lithuania for meetings with Presidents Grybauskaite of Lithuania and Berzins of Latvia.
   
  • Lithuanian President Grybauskaite called Russian actions in Crimea a direct threat to the region.
     
• On Tuesday, NATO Secretary General Anders Rasmussen held talks in Washington, D.C. with senior U.S. government officials, including Secretary of State John Kerry, Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel and National Security Advisor Susan Rice.
   
• In response to calls to provide Ukraine with military assistance, White House Press Secretary Jay Carney has stated that the U.S. is reviewing requests made by the Ukrainian government, but that the focus would remain “on economic and diplomatic efforts aimed at de-escalating the situation in the Ukraine.”
   
• Pro-Russian forces have seized many of Crimea’s most valuable assets, including assets owned by Ukrainian ministries, trade unions and oligarchs.
   

Government Statements

Vladimir Putin, “Address by President of the Russian Federation,” The Kremlin, March 18, 2014

“Readout of the President’s Call with Chancellor Merkel of Germany,” The White House, March 18, 2014

“Remarks to the Press by Vice President Joe Biden and President Toomas Ilves of Estonia,” The White House, March 18, 2014

“Remarks to the Press by Vice President Joe Biden with President Bronislaw Komorowski of Poland,” The White House, March 18, 2014

“Remarks to the Press by Vice President Joe Biden with Prime Minister Donald Tusk of Poland,” The White House, March 18, 2014

Jay Carney, “Press Briefing by Press Secretary Jay Carney, 3/18/2014,” The White House, March 18, 2014

“NATO Secretary General in Washington to discuss Ukraine crisis, Wales summit,” NATO, March 18, 2014

Analytical Pieces

Matthew Sussex, “Russia-Crimea: Putin’s revanchism,” The Interpreter, March 19, 2014

Sam Roggeveen, “Crimea: Europe’s holiday from strategy is over,” The Interpreter, March 19, 2014

Michael Tomasky, “Three Questions for Ukraine Hawks,” The Daily Beast, March 19, 2014

Pawel Sweiboda, “Europe’s Eastward Evangelists: Why Poland Holds the Key to Ukraine’s Future,” Foreign Affairs, March 18, 2014

Dominique Arel, “Double-Talk: Why Ukrainians Fight Over Language,” Foreign Affairs, March 18, 2014

Jonathan Marcus, “Analysis: Russia’s Crimea move poses West huge questions,” BBC News, March 18, 2014

Hanna Kozlowska, “Russia Sanctions Fail to Soothe Poland’s Frayed Nerves,” Foreign Policy, March 18, 2014

Jamila Trindle and Keith Johnson, “Clean Slate?: Russia’s annexation of Crimea could wipe away billions of dollars of Ukrainian debt,” Foreign Policy, March 18, 2014

John Hudson, “Ukraine Warns of War as Russia Annexes Crimea,” Foreign Policy, March 18, 2014

Christopher Dickey, “Why Putin Did It,” The Daily Beast, March 18, 2014

David Ignatius, “What we learned in Crimea,” The Washington Post, March 18, 2014

Ulrike Lunacek, “PN Member Ulrike Lunacek in Favor of Special OSCE Mission for Crimea,” EastWest Institute, March 18, 2014

Jamie Dettmer, “Ukraine Expects U.S. Military If War With Russia Starts,” The Daily Beast, March 17, 2014

Samuel Charap and Keith Darden, “Russia’s unclear motives in Ukraine,” International Institute for Strategic Studies, March 3, 2014

Key Developments

• President Vladimir Putin has signed a draft treaty that would incorporate Crimea into the Russian Federation. Crimean Prime Minister Sergei Aksyonov and Speaker Vladimir Konstantinov of the Crimean Parliament were both present for the signing at the Kremlin.

• Putin declared that “Crimea has always been an integral part of Russia in the hearts and minds of people.”  Putin goes on to state that Russia does not want to partition Ukraine: “We are one people. We simply cannot exist without one another.”

• In a conciliatory speech delivered in Russian, Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk sought to reassure his country’s ethnic Russian population and Russia by pledging that Ukraine would not join NATO.

• A Twitter statement released by the Ukrainian government stated that Ukraine would never recognize Crimea’s new status.

• Legislation has been formally submitted to the Russian parliament to begin the process of annexation of Crimea and officially reverse a 60-year old decision made by the Soviet Union that transferred Crimea to Ukraine.

• In a press conference yesterday, President Obama expressed support for Ukraine and declared that the U.S. “stands with the people of Ukraine and their right to determine their own destiny.”

• William Hague, the British foreign secretary has condemned Russia’s actions as a “flagrant disregard of Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.”

• A statement released yesterday by the Foreign Ministers of the EU condemned the Crimean referendum and its outcome as illegal under the Ukrainian constitution and warned of further economic consequences if there are “any further steps by the Russian Federation to destabilize the situation in Ukraine.”

• Vice President Joe Biden has arrived in Warsaw for two days of meetings with the leaders of Poland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.  Biden’s trip is meant to reassure these eastern European countries of America’s continued support and commitment to NATO.

• Speaking together with Prime Minister Donald Tusk of Poland, Vice President Biden characterized Russia’s moves as “nothing more than a land grab.”

• Prime Minister Tusk declared that continued NATO solidarity enable “sufficient and strong reactions to Russia’s aggression.”

• Targets of EU sanctions include the prime minister of Crimea, the chairman of the Commonwealth of Independent States, three Russian military commanders and senior officials in the Russian legislature.

• French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius has warned Russia that France could cancel the Russian purchase of French-built amphibious assault warships as part of the next round of European sanctions against Russia.

• In response to U.S. sanctions against him, Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin of Russia has posted a message on Twitter: “Comrade Barack Obama, what should do those who [sic] have neither accounts nor property abroad?”

• President Obama has spoken with Chancellor Merkel to continue coordinating the response to the Ukrainian situation.

• Concerned with increasing tensions, Swedish leaders, including Deputy Prime Minister Jan Björklund, are considering joining the NATO alliance and boosting military spending.

• The leader of the Moldovan breakaway region of Transnistria has urged Russia to annex the region.  Responding to this appeal, President Nicolae Timofti of Moldova has warned Russia against any move to annex Transnistria.  Transnistria seceded from Moldova in 1990 on fears that Moldova would merge with Romania.  A brief war was fought in 1992, after which Transnistria declared itself an independent state, but remains unrecognized in the international community.  Russia maintains a force of “peacekeepers” in the region.  In a 2006 referendum, 97.2% of vote was in favor of joining Russia.

• With the crisis ongoing, Crimea is feeling the financial costs of instability, as tourism from Ukraine and the West has largely dried up.

Government Statements

Barack Obama, “Statement by the President on Ukraine,” The White House, March 17, 2014

William Hague, “Foreign secretary condemns Russia’s recognition of Crimea as a ‘sovereign state’,” March 17, 2014

The White House, “Background Press Briefing by a Senior Administration Official on the Vice President’s Trip to Poland and Lithuania,” March 17, 2014

Council of the European Union, “Council conclusions on Ukraine,” March 17, 2014

Analytical Pieces

Daniel Woker, “Russia-Ukraine: Who can mediate?,” The Interpreter, March 18, 2014

Jan Techau, “Ukraine, the Birthplace of Strategic Europe?,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace – Strategic Europe, March 18, 2014

Gordon Adams, “Don’t Poke the Russian Bear,” Foreign Policy, March 17, 2014

Steven Pifer, “Helping Ukraine is Punishing Russia,” Reuters, March 17, 2014

Michael Hirsh, “A New ‘Cool War’ With Russia Is About To Begin,” National Journal, March 17, 2014

Stewart M. Patrick, “Crimea: Stop Citing International Law and Start Condemning Russian Expansionism,” Council on Foreign Relations – The Internationalist, March 17, 2014

Jochen Bittner, “Is Crimea the Next Yugoslavia?,” The New York Times, March 17, 2014

Charlemagne, “Putin untouched,” The Economist, March 17, 2014

Dimiter Kenarov, “Watching Gogol in Simferopol,” Foreign Policy, March 17, 2014

Dan Lamothe, “Bad Romance: France’s $1.7 Billion Warship Deal with Russia Gets New Scrutiny,” Foreign Policy, March 17, 2014

Loren Thompson, “Ukraine Crisis: Poland’s Air Defense Become A Pressing Concern for Washington,” Forbes, March 17, 2014

Yong Kwon, “The IMF, Ukraine, and the Asian Financial Crisis Hangover,” The Diplomat, March 17, 2014

Pankaj Mishra, “Putin’s Eurasian Fantasy,” Bloomberg View, March 17, 2014

Peter Beinart, “America is Too Broke to Rescue Ukraine,” The Atlantic, March 17, 2014
 

Video

“Putin Announces Crimea Annexation,” The New York Times, March 18, 2014

Key Developments

• Crimean voters overwhelming chose to secede from Ukraine in the March 16 referendum, and the Crimean parliament accordingly has declared independence and formally applied to join the Russian Federation.

• The announced results reported that 97% of voters supported becoming part of Russia.  As the poll was boycotted by the Crimean Tatars and many ethnic Ukrainians (roughly 13% and 25% of the Crimean population, respectively), the officially reported turnout of 83% of the population seems incongruous.

• On Saturday, March 15, Russia vetoed a UN Security Council resolution that would have declared the Crimean referendum illegal.  Aside from China’s abstention, all the other members of the Security Council voted in favor of the resolution.

• Following Sunday’s referendum, Ukraine has mobilized 40,000 of its reservists and diverted $680 million from its cash-strapped budget to improve military readiness.

• Russia has deployed thousands of soldiers to the Ukrainian border for a series of military exercises to take place over the next two weeks.

• A truce between Ukrainian and Russian troops has been negotiated in the Crimea.  The truce, which will last through March 21, permits the Ukrainian military to resupply their surrounded bases and reduces the possibility of an immediate confrontation.

• According to a statement released on Sunday by the Russian Foreign Ministry, over the course of two phone conversations on Saturday and Sunday, Kerry and Lavrov have agreed to seek Ukrainian constitutional reforms to resolve the crisis.  The U.S. has not confirmed the statement.

• President Obama spoke with President Putin of Russia on Sunday, reiterating continued American opposition to the referendum as a violation of the Ukrainian constitution and sovereignty.  Obama went on to press Putin on the need for the de-escalation and a diplomatic resolution to the crisis.

• After condemning the referendum, both the U.S. and the EU have imposed sanctions, including travel bans and assets freezes, on Russian and Ukrainian leaders over Crimea’s move to join Russia.  Both the U.S. and the EU have warned that further sanctions may be imposed if the crisis remains unresolved.

• President Obama has issued an executive order targeting 11 individuals – seven Russians and four Ukrainians – including Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin, Crimean Prime Minister Sergey Aksyonov, former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich, Putin aides, Vladislav Surkov and Sergei Glazyev, Valentina Matviyenko, the head of the upper house of the Russian parliament, and Vladimir Konstantinov, the head of the Crimean parliament.  The executive order goes on to label Aksyonov and Konstantinov as separatists.

• The EU has announced sanctions targeting 21 individuals – thirteen Russians and eight Crimeans.  The names of these individuals were not immediately publicized, but do not include senior Russian leaders.

• In the largest demonstrations in nearly two years, as many as 50,000 protesters took part in a rally in Moscow to oppose the government’s intervention in Ukraine.

• Dmitry Kiselyov, the head of Rossiya Segodnya (Russia Today), the official Russian government owned news agency, and the host of a popular Russian Sunday television show has stirred Cold War fears by noting on the air that Russia is capable of turning the U.S. into radioactive dust.

• Several public NATO websites have been the targets of cyber-attacks purportedly perpetrated by pro-Russian hackers.

Government Statements

The White House, Fact Sheet: Ukraine-Related Sanctions,” March 17, 2014

The White House, Readout of the President’s Call with President Putin,” March 16, 2014

Jay Carney, “Statement by the Press Secretary on Ukraine,” The White House, March 16, 2014

Analytical Pieces

Dmitri Trenin, “Crimea’s Choice,” The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace – Eurasia Outlook, March 17, 2014

Sergei Aleksashenko, “The Day After: Is It Technically Difficult to Annex Crimea?,” The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace – Eurasia Outlook, March 17, 2014

Mike Callaghan, “Is the IMF a political football in the Ukraine crisis?,” The Interpreter, March 17, 2014

Council on Foreign Relations, Interview of John B. Bellinger III: Why the Crimean Referendum is Illegitimate,” March 16, 2014

Paul Pillar, “Ukraine and the Zero-Sum Impulse,” The National Interest, March 16, 2014

Thomas L. Friedman, “The Three Faces of President Obama,” The New York Times, March 16, 2014

Graham Allison, “A ‘Belgian Solution’ for Ukraine?,” The National Interest, March 15, 2014

Colum Lynch, “Russia Vetoes Last-Ditch U.N. Effort to Prevent Crimea Annexation,” The Cable- Foreign Policy, March 15, 2014

Andrew S. Bowen, “Chicken Kiev: Will Russia risk an all-out invasion of Ukraine?,” Foreign Policy, March 15, 2014

Peter Liberman and Julie A. George, “Will Conquest Pay?: In Crimea, Russia Might Come Out Ahead,” Foreign Affairs, March 14, 2014

John McCain, “Obama Has Made America Look Weak,” The New York Times, March 14, 2014

Taras Kuzio, “Farewell, Crimea: Why Ukrainians Don’t Mind Losing the Territory to Russia,” Foreign Affairs, March 13, 2014

Fareed Zakaria, “Why (this time) Obama Must Lead,” The Washington Post, March 13, 2014
 

Key Developments

• US Secretary of State John Kerry met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in London on Friday for six hours. Lavrov stated that Russia will "respect the will of the people of Crimea.” After the meeting, Lavrov called the talks “constructive” but stated that Russia and the U.S. did “not have a common vision” on the situation in Ukraine.
   
• Hundreds of pro-Russian and Kiev supporters clashed last night in the east Ukraine city of Donetsk in the worst display of violence since Ukraine President Viktor Yanukovych was ousted on  February 22. One person died in the violence, and several people were injured.
   
• On Friday morning, trucks, troops and at least one armored personnel carrier (APC) were unloaded from a Russian warship, the Yamal 156, at Kazachaya Bay near Sevastopol in Crimea. The large landing ship can carry more than 300 troops and up to a dozen APCs.
   
• Senior U.S. officials report that Ukraine's interim government has appealed to the U.S. for military aid, including arms, ammunition and intelligence support. Wary of aggravating tensions with Russia, the Obama administration has agreed to send only military rations at this time.
   
• Russia's ambassador to the United Nations, Vitaly Churkin, told an emergency meeting of the Security Council that Moscow "does not want war" with Ukraine, as a direct response to a question posed by Ukraine's interim Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk.
   
• A draft resolution has been circulated in the UN Security Council concerning the referendum in Crimea, planned for Sunday. Sponsored by the U.S., the resolution would declare the referendum illegal. According to council diplomats, Russia has pledged to veto the resolution.
   
• The U.S. aid package to Ukraine stalled in the Senate on Thursday because of Republican opposition to the bill. In addition to opposing the IMF reforms tied to the aid package, some opponents, such as  Senator Rand Paul (KY), also stated that the aid would indirectly benefit Russia because of the billions of dollars of debt Ukraine owes Russia. Some Republicans, however, support the bill, with Senator John McCain (AZ) harshly criticizing those in his party for their opposition to the proposed legislation. The bill will be taken up again when Congress reconvenes on March 24.
   
• Eight U.S. Senators, led by Senator John McCain (R-AZ), will travel to Ukraine this weekend to meet with the interim government.
   
• Leonid Kravchuk, Ukraine's first president (1991-1994), earlier this month denounced Russia's invasion of Ukraine, stating that Russia has violated the Budapest Memorandum and that “Ukraine has every reason to go to international arbitration." Kravchuk vowed that he and every Ukrainian citizen would take up arms to fight for their homeland against Russian aggression.

Government Statements

Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk addressed the UN Security Council on March 13 at its sixth urgent meeting on the crisis in Ukraine

Press Briefing by U.S. Press Secretary Jay Carney, 3/13/2014

Analytical Pieces

The Editorial Board, “Fixing Ukraine’s Economy,” The New York Times, March 13, 2014. 

Wei Zongyou, “Ukraine Crisis: Can China Be More Helpful?,” The Diplomat, March 14, 2014.

Jamila Trindle, “Cutting off your Nose,” Foreign Policy, March 13, 2014. 

Alexander Motyl, “Why Ukraine Should Risk it All,” Foreign Policy, March 14, 2014. 

Susan B. Glasser, “Putin on the Couch,” Politico, March 14, 2014.

Robert Kahn, “Sanctions: What’s Next?,” Council on Foreign Relations, March 13, 2014.

John J. Mearsheimer, “Getting Ukraine Wrong,” The New York Times, March 13, 2014. 

Video

Ukraine's PM appeals to U.N. over Crimea (1:43)