South Asia

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's visit to Japan from May 27 to 30 was opportune, as the circumstances today are more propitious than ever for India and Japan to forge a solid strategic partnership. 

Japan's ties with China have frayed badly, with massive trade and investment ties between the two failing to shield Japan politically from aggressive Chinese territorial claims on Senkaku islands.

Even if the two countries manage to defuse the situation to avert the incalculable risks of an actual military brawl, China has lit a fire under the relationship that would be very difficult to douse.

To deal with the emerging Chinese threat, Japan has to develop a new mix of diplomatic and military tools. In addition to a defence cordon provided by its US alliance, it needs a diplomatic cordon comprising of select countries anxious about the unpredictable consequences of China's rise visible in its aggressive posturing in the South China and East China waters and its recent incursion into Ladakh. Japan's ties with India have thus become more relevant strategically.

Circumstances

Economic reasons too favour close India-Japan bonds. Japan is already heavily over-invested in China; China's politically motivated squeeze of Japan on rare-earth supplies carried a lesson. Rising India, with all its shortcomings, has the market, consumption potential, investment needs and manpower assets of interest to an ageing Japanese society and the Abeconomics-pushed revival of Japan's economy.

Prime Minister Abe lays stress on democracy as a source of security and has proposed in that perspective the concept of an Asian Security Diamond comprising of U.S., Japan, India and Australia.

Tactically, grouping select countries sharing similar political values to work together to promote regional security is a defensible approach, and China's protests, as an opaque, authoritarian state have no legs.

Japan's current political overtures towards India are unprecedented. Sensing this, the Chinese have tried to interfere with the developing momentum of Indo-Japanese partnership, with Premier Li Keqiang inserting his visit to India before that of our Prime Minister's Japan travel, and manipulating its results in rhetoric and substance to suit China's diplomatic strategy.

We went along with Li Keqiang to describe the India-China relationship as "an effective model of friendly co-existence between...neighbouring countries" and emphasised its "regional, global and strategic significance." We agreed to establish a Joint Study Group to develop a BCIM (Bangladesh, China, India, Myanmar) Economic Corridor. 

Enhanced bilateral cooperation on maritime security and cooperation in safeguarding sea-lanes and freedom of navigation was also endorsed, as well as the establishment of an open and inclusive security framework in the Asia-Pacific region. We even approved bilateral cooperation in civil nuclear energy.

In effect, by unduly projecting congruences with China, we distanced ourselves from key aspects of Japan's China concerns in advance of Manmohan Singh's visit to Japan. As we pragmatically separate our relations with China from those with Japan, we should avoid creating space for China to shoot at Japan from our shoulders, as Chinese commentators have done in lecturing Japanese politicians - described as "petty burglars" - on the edifying manner in which India and China managed to properly solve their border stand-off quickly.

Ties

The Prime Minister's visit highlighted several positive features of the India-Japan political, economic and security agenda in the years ahead. He was shown unusual regard, with the Japanese royal couple hosting a lunch for him and his wife and their visit to India getting announced for November/December this year. The two countries intend strengthening their Strategic and Global Partnership "taking into account changes in the strategic environment."

In addition to existing multifarious dialogues at the level of their Foreign and Defence Ministries, India and Japan have also launched a Maritime Affairs Dialogue in January this year. Importantly, India and Japan intend expanding defence ties, with regular and more frequent bilateral naval exercises planned following the first one in June 2012.

In this connection we should be less reticent about trilateral India-Japan-US naval exercises in the Indian Ocean. Japan is keen to sell its amphibian aircraft US-2 to India, which interests the Indian Navy. A Working Group will explore the modalities of its acquisition.

In the context of Japan's highly inhibited posture on external defence cooperation, such overtures need an encouraging Indian response to solidify other aspects of our bilateral ties. 

Partners

On South and East China Sea wrangles, we joined Japan in reiterating our commitment to the freedom of navigation and unimpeded commerce based on international law. On terrorism, the Japanese endorsed our preferred formulations. On the sensitive nuclear cooperation issue, the gain from the visit was Prime Minister Abe's recognition of India's sound nonproliferation record, Japan's commitment to work for India's membership of the four international export control regimes - the NSG, MTCR, the Australia Group and the Wassenaar Arrangement, and proposed acceleration of negotiations on the India-Japan civil nuclear agreement.

The visit provided an opportunity to emphasise the need to boost the current bilateral trade of $18 billion. India accounts for only 4 per cent of Japan's investment in Asia, though it has committed $4.5 billion for key Delhi-Mumbai industrial and rail freight corridors as part of developing our infrastructure, is eyeing the Mumbai-Ahmedabad high speed railway route, and could potentially participate in the Chennai-Bengaluru industrial corridor.

India is seeking Japanese investments in solar power generation and clean coal technologies.

The Prime Minister rightly called India and Japan natural and indispensable partners for mutual prosperity and a peaceful and stable future for the Asia-Pacific and Indian Ocean regions. 

Beyond words, we need clarity about our strategic choices in action. The China factor should not interfere with the strategic direction of our Japan relationship.

Click here to read the article in the Daily Mail. 

The peer-to-peer exchange, which included U.S. legislators and women parliamentarians from Afghanistan, Pakistan, Morocco, Tunisia, and Turkey focused on promoting women as agents of change in political life, conflict prevention and peace-building."

The write-up notes, "the most pressing policy goal identified by leaders from the Middle East region was ensuring the protection of Afghan women’s rights following the withdrawal of U.S. and international security forces in 2014."

To read full published article, click here.

To read EWI’s report on the event, click here.

As part of their “Women, Peace and Security” partnership, EWI’s Parliamentarians Network for Conflict Prevention and Women’s Action for New Directions (WAND) brought together U.S. state legislators and international parliamentarians in Ankara on May 28-30. The purpose of this meeting was to help participants learn from the experiences of Turkish women leaders, and explore ways in which women leaders can better support one another globally. Women in Turkey have successfully gained a place at the highest levels of government.

"We struggle in a different way, but we struggle with the same issues" responded one of the U.S. legislators upon hearing accounts of the difficulties women have in countries like Afghanistan and Pakistan. One of the positive outcomes of this meeting was that members of the U.S. delegation committed to take up the issue of the security needs of women with their respective members in Congress.

Ten U.S. state legislators and six participants hailing from Afghanistan, Morocco, Pakistan and Tunisia gathered for a series of dialogues with Deputy Minister for Family and Social Policy Dr. Aşkın Asan as well as with Turkish parliamentary committees. The aim of the partnership is to create better understanding between these female legislators, to forge personal ties and to educate them on various models and tools available to increase the role each of these women can play in their respective security debates.

The delegation was briefed on the developments in Morocco, which largely escaped the massive demonstrations that the MENA region experienced throughout the Arab Awakening. All eyes are now on Tunisia, which will be voting on its new constitution in a few weeks. The outcome of this process will be pivotal in determining the success of the regional revolution.

In debating the barriers to women reaching the higher levels of policy making, the delegation quizzed Deputy Minister Asan. Particularly, they wanted to know what steps the Organization of Islamic Conference (OIC) is taking to promote the implementation of United Nations Security Council Resolution 1325 on Women, Peace and Security, adopted in 2000. The resolution requires United Nations member states to incorporate women into peace processes and negotiations.

A conference held in Istanbul two years ago entitled “Change in Muslim Societies and the Role of Women” produced an agreement on the establishment of a gender-equality institute, but unfortunately the rhetorical support for the creation of this institute has not been followed up by concrete steps. The partnership will seek to further press governments on the implementation of this agreement and will seek to establish a relationship with the Parliamentary Union of the OIC member States (PUIC) to further engage women in the vital debates on conflict prevention, peace and security.

Click here to read a write-up by one of the event's participants, in the Georgia Senate Press. 

"China Targets Broader Investments in U.S.," Wall Street Journal. May 20.

"US and Chinese leaders to hold summit in California," BBC. May 20.

"Analysis: From opera to exercises, U.S. and China deepen military ties,” Reuters. May 22.

“It won’t be easy to build an ‘anyone but China’ club,” Financial Times. May 22. 

Follow EWI on Twitter @EWInstitute for continuing news updates.

Compiled by Michael McShane and Haolin Liu.

Visiting China is a never-ending revelation; the amazing 7.7 percent growth rate in a sluggish global economy is considered ‘disappointing’ there. Of China’s 31 provinces, Guangdong has the highest GDP – US$960 billion with a growth rate of 8.2 percent – while Tibet is lowest with 12 percent growth rate and a GDP of US$11 billion.

The Guizhou province has the highest growth rate (12 percent). Xinjiang, bordering Pakistan and vastly underdeveloped, is 25th with US$121 billion and a 12 percent growth rate. The expanse of the two bustling ever-growing mega cities of Beijing or Shanghai is truly outstanding with enormous public infrastructure delivering efficient services to its citizens.

An early morning (7:15am) extempore briefing by CH Tung at the EastWest Institute’s 2013 ‘spring’ board meeting in Beijing from May 15 to May 17 was a treat. The shipping magnate became Hong Kong’s chief executive in 1999 when the city was handed back to China by the UK. Born on July 8, 1937 – the day Japan and China went to war – Tung gave an insightful historical and cultural perspective into China describing the determined mindset influencing China’s drive to soon become the most prosperous country in the world.

Certainly important to peace and prosperity in the world, the US-China competition is presently peaceful but has ominous military overtones because of the growing number of flashpoints on China’s periphery. The US is mired in Cold War relationships that it cannot seem to shed. Of greater concern to us are Pakistan’s present and future ties with China.

China’s only opening to the world was symbolised best by Pakistan facilitating its first top-level contact with the US – Henry Kissinger’s famous secret trip to China in July 1971 changed the strategic dynamics of the world. Chinese PM Chou En-Lai reportedly told Kissinger, “Do not forget the bridge (meaning Pakistan) you have used, you may have to use it again.” Unfortunately our record with the US is spotty, every ten years or so Pakistan goes from being a ‘cornerstone’ to a ‘gravestone’.

The Chinese leaders from the 1970s are retired octogenarians now. However, China has not forgotten the ‘bridge’ that Pakistan is, at least at the strategic level. The proposed Pak-China economic corridor linking Gwadar Port with Xinjiang and other parts of China will involve both road and rail links, with both optic fibre and oil pipelines for boosting energy, trade and transport between the two countries. Initially investing over US$20 billion creating a ‘Special Economic Zone’ in Xinjiang, China’s keenness to have another trade outlet to the Indian Ocean is cementing its historic ties with Pakistan.

The transit time will be reduced from weeks and months to three to four days only, creating an economic windfall for Pakistan, particularly in less developed Balochistan. Pakistan’s salvation requires major investment in infrastructure. With the US pulling out of Afghanistan by 2014, the Afghan economy will go into a tailspin. Only an economic overdrive can contain the spill over of the desperate poverty. Militarily we will be hard-pressed, force-multiplied further if we fail to create economic opportunities for our people as well as the Afghans.

The high point of my current visit to China was meeting up with retired ambassador Zhang Chun Xiang. Four decades ago he was an interpreter with the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) divisions constructing the tremendous Karakoram Highway (KKH) in the highest mountains in the world. Pakistan Army Aviation’s KKH Flight was in support with two Aloutte-3 helicopters.

Ambassador Zhang speaks fluent Urdu and is not averse to choice Punjabi expletives if and when the need arises. He served as the Chinese consul general in Houston, retiring as China’s ambassador to Hungary. His 23 years of service in Pakistan includes stints with the Chinese consulate general in Karachi and the Chinese embassy in Islamabad. His last posting in Pakistan was as ambassador. Now in an advisory capacity with major Chinese technological group Huawei, Zhang still advises on Chinese policies in South Asia.

The EastWest Institute honoured Ambassador Zhang by his brief presence at the EWI Board meeting. People like Zhang have kept the friendship alive not only between individuals but countries, our mutual association being highly symbolic of the continuing friendship between China and Pakistan. Emotions and feelings will always drive relationships between nations. And, more importantly, core interests must coincide – and better still, not diverge.

The disappointment in Pakistan that Chinese PM Li Keqiang chose India as his first stop as prime minister (with Islamabad to follow later) is more perception than fact. We should not be apprehensive of China-India relations; they will have no negative consequences for Pakistan. Similarly we cannot condition our ties with the US on its ties with India – the dynamics are different particularly given the economic connotations. Our ties with China will become stronger as mutual economic initiatives increasingly dovetail into their geo-political compulsions. Take India’s questioning of the Chinese policy of issuing stapled visas to residents of Indian-occupied Kashmir in contrast to giving normal visas to citizens of the Pakistan-administered side. India says China is taking Pakistan’s side in the dispute. That is true!

India’s trade with China exceeds US$66 billion but unresolved border disputes remain. Historically China is a restraining factor to India’s normal aggressive posture vis-à-vis Pakistan. India’s apprehensions about Gwadar are neither justified nor warranted. The Chinese PM will possibly underscore the port’s importance to China, not as a forward military base but an energy and trade junction providing a vital economic outlet for the country. Regional peace and stability requires we address contentious issues that bedevil relations, like Kashmir, between India and Pakistan. Given that we can never come to an agreement over Kashmir, what is stopping us from coming to an arrangement?

To quote Director Sun Shi-Lai of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences “Pakistan can cast great influence on Islamic countries and serve as a bridge between China and the Middle East.” Fortunately China’s self-interest and our national interest coincide, reinforcing mutual commitment as “all-weather” friends (to quote Chinese FM Wang Yi). Our friendship is definitely a ‘cornerstone’ of Chinese foreign policy. With over US$20 billion being invested in Xinjiang this year alone, China’s opening to the Indian Ocean is not only a dream of prosperity for China and Pakistan but a dire necessity.

The Chinese suffered many casualties during the construction of the KKH. As helicopter pilots it was our unpleasant duty to ferry the injured for medical aid – some of them with fatal injuries. For me personally at that time it was a road coming from nowhere and going nowhere. The proximity to blood and gore on a daily basis does get to you. After one particularly harrowing day I angrily asked Zhang, “What is with you Chinese? Why are you killing yourselves for this road?” His calm reply is forever etched in my memory, “You Pakistanis cannot think beyond 10 years, us Chinese dream beyond a 100 years!”

What stops us Pakistanis from dreaming too?

Ikram Sehgal is a security analyst and chairman of PATHFINDER GROUP.

To read full published article, click here.

More than 150 lost their lives in the run-up to the elections and on election day itself, scores were injured. Despite fear and intimidation, by lining up to vote the populace signalled their readiness to be stakeholders in the destiny of the nation and willing to confront the challenges. PTI’s Chairman Imran Khan made an emotional appeal to the people to go out and vote for change. Vote for change it certainly is, the ruling coalition parties that have driven Pakistan literally into the ground are now an “endangered species”, but the voters played safe, favouring the steady experience of Mian Nawaz Sharif instead of the charismatic Imran Khan.

What both military and civil regimes could not do to the PPP founded by Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, his son-in-law Asif Ali Zardari and his shadowy Merlin operating from the Presidency have managed to do in the space of five years of misrule. For lining their own pockets, they have sacrificed the great national party, marginalizing it into mostly a regional status. Zardari’s nuisance value will remain, he will keep on playing the “Sindh Card” but the writing is on the wall. The strong second place showing of PML (F) allied with nationalists in interior Sindh ensures that even in the Sindh rural areas politically life will be tough for the party in the future.

It is important to rid the country of the aberration blighting the Presidency. The 18th Amendment was made into a joke, the government was mismanaged from the Presidency over a puppet PM put into place by Zardari, the Constitution now works in Mian Nawaz Sharif’s favour. Mian Nawaz Sharif can let Zardari finish his term in August or impeach him, alongwith PTI he has the necessary numbers to do so. While Mian Sahib is inclined to let him finish his term, why is our future PM being so magnanimous, will justice be served by letting Zardari go without retrieving the billions he has secreted abroad? Or is the Swiss case the symbolic price of our democracy? It gives truth to Imran Khan’s insinuations of PPP and PML (N) being hand in glove! Removed of his Presidential immunity, Zardari and his close associates in white collar crime can be put on the ECL to start with. Zardari’s close aides must not be allowed to exit Pakistan, these people have harmed the country beyond measure. People like former Interior Minister Rahman Malik should be a virtual mine of knowledge. Given the right “incentives” they will talk nineteen to the dozen to save their skins.

A cursory look at the voting figures will show that Imran Khan’s Tsunami touched landfall in KPK but only parts of Punjab. Despite giving PML (N) the nod, the calculations went astray because the visible enthusiasm in the streets indicated a surge for PTI, true in KPK but not in Punjab. Conversely the PML (N)’s measure of popularity in the Punjab was quite wrong, taking 40 more NA seats than projected. Dozens of races were close, PTI was not too far behind in second place in many contests. The “first past the post system” is flawed, winner takes all but is that true representation of the stakeholders in a democracy? After all, more than 100% is a bit thick with indications of ballot stuffing, interference in women polling stations, etc PTI asked for re-counting in 25 NA seats. PML (N) is so far ahead, they can afford voting irregularities to be examined. A few adjustments notwithstanding, Mian Sahib won the elections fair and square. Remember 1977, PPP had clearly won the elections, less than two dozen seats were rigged but the entire electoral exercise became a subject of doubt and controversy. The PML (N) destroyed PPP and PML (Q) in the Punjab and PTI put paid to ANP in KPK. Calculations were that ANP would be left with 4 NA seats in KPK, even stalwarts like Asfandyar Wali Khan and Ghulam Mohammad Bilour suffered stinging defeats.

Bagging a significant number of independents, PML (N) will have a working majority to form a government without other partners. A good sign is that MQM’s Altaf Hussain immediately called to congratulate the PML (N) chief on his victory. While PML (N) does not need MQM according to the seat count, it is always useful to have MQM on board, Karachi being crucial for any Federal Government. PPP has the numbers to align with MQM for the Sindh Provincial Government, MQM may have a vital role to play in political détente.

Visiting Beijing, one was struck by the priorities for China set out by Chinese Premier Li Keqiang, “upholding social fairness and justice, improving the policy environment for development and providing high quality public service.” The last can only become true in Pakistan when the blatant discrimination between the District Management Group (DMG) and the Provincial Civil Services (PCS) is removed. Mian Nawaz Sharif has his work cut out, despite our manpower and material resources the country is in an economic mess. Why not imitate the Chinese priorities for economic reforms on an urgent basis i.e. reduce administrative redundancy, empower the private sector and open up more to the world?

Waiting for more than four hours because the ballot boxes did not arrive, once the process started, it was smooth in our polling station in NA-250. The elections were not flawless, no elections in Pakistan ever are. Yet this was the best electoral exercise conducted in Pakistan’s history. Besides knowing clearly for the first time in my life in which location to vote, thanks to NADRA’s electronic message system, my name on the voter list was easily ascertained. Each page had ten voters with their photographs, that is no mean achievement! If the polling staff did not arrive in time, that was not the ECP’s fault, the Caretaker Government was derelict in their administrative responsibility, moreover local law and order is their subject. ECP staff deserve kudos for performing despite our 85 years old media-grandstanding Chief Election Commissioner. While ECP’s nominated members will take all the glory for a job well done, the real kudos must be reserved for Mr Ishtiak, Secretary ECP and the ECP rank and file.

The PML (N) forms the Federal Government, and the government in the Punjab, PPP in Sindh and PTI should be able to do it in KPK. Balochistan will probably have a PML (N) supported government. While PTI will get on-hands experience of governing in KPK, it needs the full support of the Federal Government because the ongoing battle to eliminate terrorism is centered in KPK. It was tremendous to see Mian Nawaz Sharif reach out pragmatically to Imran Khan by visiting him in his hospital bed. It maybe too much to hope for but should PTI become part of the Federal government it would confirm that Pakistan’s interests and Mian Nawaz Sharif’s are one and same.

Having proved himself politically at the polls, Mian Nawaz Sharif has shown, at least initially, that he is well on his way to becoming the political statesman this country badly needs.

Ikram Sehgal is a security analyst and chairman of PATHFINDER GROUP.

To read full published article, click here.

Notwithstanding PPP and ANP desperately trying to avoid impending rout by delaying the electoral process, approximately 86 million people will be eligible to decide the country’s fate on Saturday May 11, 2013.

Kayani put to rest widespread doubts by reiterating the army’s commitment supporting the election schedule, 70000 troops fanning out to deploy in sensitive areas. 35 million voters of the 80 eligible (about 44%) exercised their right in 2008.  Alongwith fake degrees a greater number of votes (37 million, 46%) being bogus and/or duplicate undermined the credibility of the “elected” Assemblies and served to show the disfigured face of our “democracy”. These “anomalies” have now been removed, to an extent.  Given the ineffectiveness of the due diligence conducted by the ECP, these frauds will be soon be back in Parliament.

The voting percentage represents the barometer of the will of the people, it is impossible to quantify whether the aspirations of the people desperate for change will be translated into votes.  Whoever thought up the idea of launching the movie “Chambeli” at this particular time has a genius for impact and sheer timing.  The spontaneous reaction of the audience captures the deep resentment against the existing feudal system, coincidence that the content and theme is synonymous with Imran Khan’s message?  With a majority of youth and women already vowing for him, Imran Khan has woken up dormant society, will his unfortunate injury galvanize the populace to vote the difference for this nation, his party and for himself on May 11?

Constant terrorist attacks notwithstanding, about 43 million (nearly 50%), are expected to turn out.  17 million (20%) voters ages 18 - 25 years and women across the age divide being very visibly enthused may cross the 45 million voters (52%) mark.  Coincidentally 17 million now between the ages 51-70 were in the age group 18-25 in rooting for Zulfikar Ali Bhutto in 1970 in the vain hope of acquiring “Roti, Kapra aur Makan”.   PPP, MQM and ANP candidates are being targetted by terrorists as “liberals” but other parties are also being attacked, JUI (F) lost 25 killed in Kurram Agency this Sunday and 5 in Hangu a day later. PPP, ANP and PML (Q) stand to become politically “endangered species” on May 11, only the MQM vote bank (about 2.5 million) remains intact. Notwithstanding the excellent Benazir Income Support Program (BISP) initiative, discredited and in disarray, PPP will be lucky to get close to their 10 million tally in 2008.  Most of 2008’s 8 million PML (Q) votes will return to PML (N), ANP registering far less than their half million plus votes in 2008.  PTI stands to match the PML(N) popular vote estimated at about 14 million votes (6.7 million in 2008). JUI (F) and JI will each poll half a million plus with “independents” getting 5-6 million votes.

The Federal capital has 0.6 million (0.33 males 0.27 females) voting for 2 NA seats and FATA 1.75 million (1.15 males 0.59 females) for its 12 NA seats. The 61 NA seats in Sindh voted for by 18.7 million voters (10.3 males, 8.4 females) are divided demographically along rural, urban and urban-rural constituencies. Primarily due pre-poll rigging PPP will still retain 27 or so NA rural seats. PML (F) alliance with nationalists and PML (N) could manage upto 9-10 seats, MQM will retain its 19 urban seats, PML (N) two with a seat each for ANP and PML (Q).  PPP will lead the Provincial coalition with MQM and ANP as partners.

Wooing 3.34 million (1.9 males 1.4 females) voters for 14 NA seats in Balochistan are PML (N), Balochistan National Party (BNP) headed by Akhtar Mengal, Mehmood Khan Achakzai’s Pakhtunkhwa Milli Awami Party (PKMAP), JUI (F) and Hasil Khan Bizenjo’s National Party (NP), NA contenders include JUI (Nazaryati) (separated from JUI (F)) and Bugti’s Jamhoori Watan Party (JWP).  PML (N) may get 3 seats, BNP, PKMAP, JUI (F) and NP 2 each, and 1 seat each for JUI (N), JWP and independent.  The Provincial coalition is up for sale!

Faced with a meltdown, ANP are citing security fears.  The battle-fatigue of the 12.3 million (7.04 males 5.3 females) KPK electorate has been force-multiplied by blatant corruption. ANP may at best win 4-5 NA seats out of 35 NA seats and maybe 12-15 PA seats. Gaining most from ANP’s misery, PTI will take some seats also from PPP, collecting between 12-15 NA seats. PPP will retain 5-6 seats.   Its Hazara stronghold should get PML (N)  7-8 NA seats overall, JUI will have 4-5 seats, one each for Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) and Aftab Sherpao.  PTI could lead the Provincial coalition but so could PML (N) if PTI cannot get the numbers together.

Nearly 49 million voters (27.6 males 21.4 females) will battle for 148 NA seats in the Punjab.  PPP will manage around 18-20 NA seats with PML (Q) getting 10-12 NA “electables”, about 10 will go to independents.  PML (N) should get 80 seats and PTI 50 on the 2008 pattern.   If near 50% vote, it will tilt towards PTI, PML (N) could have 70 and PTI 65 NA seats.  The Punjab Provincial elections is presently a toss-up.  PPP will peak at 40-45 seats with PML (Q) bagging 15 and MQM 19 NA seats, JUI (F) 7 and JI about 5 seats. There may be 12-15 independents.   With five million possible overseas voters eligible, Imran’s tally could have gone up by 3.5 million if ECP had not denied the Pakistani diaspora abroad their right of vote.

Adding independents, either party will need the magic 100 plus seats to lead a coalition government.  While there is virtually no difference ideologically between PML (N) and PTI bad-mouthing between  PML (N) and PTI has been quite vicious and quite unnecessary. Having been outmaneuvered time and again by Zardari’s duplicity, can Nawaz Sharif rely on the reliably unreliable? Moreover the pound of flesh Zardari will extract will be a political price (re-election as President) almost impossible for PML (N) to pay. Whatever way one looks at it, whether PML (N) is in front or PTI is, Mian Nawaz Sharif and Imran Khan must come together.

The nightmare of the last five years was symbolised by the rule of law being broken by the rulers as their convoluted version of governance, something highlighted in “Chambeli”.  Despite his grievous head and back injuries Imran Khan gave a dramatic and emotional appeal to the people from his hospital bed, “I have done what I have to do, that was my responsibility.  Now you do what is your responsibility.”  Observers agree that the wave of sympathy for him and his exhortation for the people to change their destiny by going to vote on May 11 will encourage them to flock to the polls. The fact of his electronic media appearance from the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) on prime TV in contrast to his opponents will help PTI.  We are on the verge of salvation, the Sharif’s spontaneous reaction to Imran’s injury, Mian Sahib’s suspending of his campaign for a day, shows compromise is possible by recognizing each other’s popular mandate and working out an amicable relationship to ensure good governance.  Only adherence to the rule of law will usher in the peace and prosperity that the people of this country have been denied and badly deserve. 

Imran’s injury, though unfortunate, is the game changer for compromise badly needed in Pakistan politics.  There is a time to fight and a time to unite!

To read full published article click here.

In the wake of the Boston marathon bombings, Sehgal maintained that the Tsarnaev brothers represent "a new breed completely" who operate without directly affiliating with known terrorist groups.

At a recent EWI talk, Sehgal addressed terrorism in the context of Pakistan's political instability.

About 40 participants from around the globe, including Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, the United Arab Emirates, Turkey, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, China, the United States and Europe, attended the EastWest Institute’s Istanbul conference, “Afghanistan Reconnected,”  in Istanbul  on April 10-11. Sponsored by the UAE, Germany and Turkey, this is the first of five conferences over the next two years focusing on improving the infrastructure within Afghanistan. The goal is to see how the country can best link up with its neighbors to fully develop its potential as an economic land bridge in Asia.

“Achievements on the security front will be fleeting unless they are underpinned by sustainable economic development,” Ambassador Fatih Ceylan of the Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs warned participants at the opening of the conference. Many reiterated the point that the market won’t wait for those in power to make decisions necessary for economic development. “Afghanistan Reconnected” comes at a critical time as the 2014 troop withdrawal approaches and Afghanistan begins to transit from a security economy to a more sustainable peace economy with sufficient growth and revenue.

The business communities of the region voiced their interest in unimpeded trade and more business opportunities, discussing the challenges in developing the hard and soft infrastructure required to enhance Afghanistan’s connectivity. Attendees agreed that Afghanistan’s economic potential will only be optimized when it becomes a transit route for trade and continental transport connecting people and markets in East and South Asia, Central Asia, Europe and the Middle East.

“We need to develop a cooperative framework through which we are able to bind the region in a web of trade, energy and transport linkages,” Ambika Sharma, deputy secretary general and head of the International Division at the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry told the participants. Those linkages, she added, “will not only act as a major confidence building measure, but will also contribute to greater economic synergies in the region and spur economic growth in Afghanistan and beyond.”

Another key issue at the conference was the relationship between Afghanistan and Pakistan and the need to enhance regular trade in line with the Afghanistan Pakistan Trade and Transit Agreement (APTTA). Attendees discussed the potential opportunities of the Southern Corridor from India to the Middle East and Europe. Former U.S. Ambassador to Afghanistan Robert Finn of Princeton University analyzed the relationship between Afghanistan and countries of Central Asia, referring to the economic benefits of using the shorter Southern Corridor for container shipment.

Dr. S. Frederick Starr, chairman of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute at Johns Hopkins University and a leading expert focused discussion on impediments to trade as well as easy gains from prompt improvements. Several participants from Pakistan and Afghanistan recognized the existing trust-deficit in the region as a major obstacle to developing its full potential. Najlla Habibyar, head of Afghanistan’s Export Promotion Agency, also emphasized the potential for her country to move from being an importer to an exporter of energy with the right infrastructure in place.

Despite the enormous hurdles, participants believed that there are tremendous regional possibilities.

“Only regional cooperation can fully unlock the immense potential of Afghanistan and its neighbors," Jan Kubis, UN Special Representative and Head of the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) pointed out. “Among the multitude of platforms it is the recently conceived Afghan-led and regionally owned Istanbul/Heart of Asia process that could be used both for mobilizing political will for cooperation and promoting a culture of working together in topical areas of common interest.”

The conference agreed on a number of recommendations to aid the development of the infrastructure network within Afghanistan and beyond in the short, medium and long term. Both the Afghan government representatives and the Afghan parliamentarians vowed to take swift action and expressed the commitment to follow up on these recommendations. Among them:  increased efforts to fully implement APTTA as well as its gradual extension to India; the removal impediments to the fast transfer of goods between Kandahar and the Pakistani port at Gwadar; and the strengthening of the Afghan’s government’s ability to maintain its roads and develop and extend its rail network.

Read the conference summary and recommendations.