Southwest Asia

Creighton's presentation focused on political and economic issues in Afghanistan and the region, building upon EWI's work through the Afghanistan Reconnected Process, as well as on his experience as an ISAF commander in Afghanistan. In addition, he addressed the need for governments, international organizations, and donors in the region to focus on "bankable" projects to reap the fruits of cooperation and support Afghanistan’s path towards a more stable and prosperous future.

EWI's Afghanistan Reconnected Process will continue in 2015 with Advocacy and Outreach Missions to Dushanbe (Tajikistan) in October and to Kabul (Afghanistan) in November.

For more information on EWI's Afghanistan Reconnected Process, please contact Ettore Marchesoni at emarchesoni@eastwest.ngo.

For EWI's contribution to the RECCA-VI Academic Forum, please see, Afghanistan Reconnected: Businesses Take Action to Unlock Trade in the Region.

For more information on the RECCA Forum, please visit: recca.af

For EWI intern Henry Villacorta's response to Jim Creighton's speech at the International Symposium on Cultural Diplomacy in the UN, click here.

Публикуемый в переводе на русский язык доклад «Афганский наркотрафик: сценарии развития ситуации после 2014 года» продолжает серию публикаций, отражающих анализ и рекомендации российско-американской Рабочей группы по проблеме афганского наркопотока, организованной Институтом Восток-Запад в 2011 году. С прекращением мандата Международных сил содействия безопасности (МССБ) и выводом из Афганистана значительной части иностранного военного контингента страна сталкивается с вызовами переходного периода, существенно повышающими риски военно-политической дестабилизации и роста производства опиатов.

Учитывая значительную степень неопределенности дальнейшего развития событий внутри и вокруг Афганистана, авторы доклада приняли за основу анализа сценарный подход, основанный на комбинации двух базовых факторов, определяющих уровень безопасности в стране и, соответственно, потенциал развития наркоэкономики как способа выживания в кризисных условиях: степень политического единства и уровень внешней поддержки (прежде всего в отношении Афганских сил национальной безопасности). Примечательно, что в рамках каждого из четырех получившихся сценариев, от более-менее оптимистичного до самого негативного, российские и американские эксперты находят возможности для развития сотрудничества России и США в борьбе с наркоугрозой. К сожалению, подготовка и выпуск доклада (оригинал на английском языке увидел свет в феврале 2015 года) совпали с периодом резкого обострения российско-американских отношений, вызванного украинским конфликтом, а также более глубокими расхождениями во взглядах на современный миропорядок между политическими элитами двух стран. Взаимодействие России и США в сфере противодействия афганской наркоугрозе стало одной из жертв этого обострения, оказавшись фактически замороженным в результате введенных Западом антироссийских санкций.

Однако к моменту выхода в свет русского текста доклада появились признаки растущего понимания руководителями обеих стран того факта, что для решения ряда приоритетных международных проблем сотрудничество России, США и их союзников является насущной необходимостью в интересах их обоюдной национальной и глобальной безопасности и должно быть защищено от влияния политических разногласий по другим вопросам. Так, в телефонном разговоре 15 июля 2015 года президенты В.Путин и Б.Обама выразили «взаимный настрой на продолжение совместной работы в интересах устойчивой реализации венских договорённостей [по иранскому ядерному досье], а также по некоторым другим актуальным международным темам, включая противодействие угрозе международного терроризма.» (http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/49999). Сотрудничество в борьбе с терроризмом и экстремизмом неизбежно создает предпосылки для возвращения к активному взаимодействию России и Запада в противодействии наркоугрозе, в частности в свете все более очевидных попыток ИГИЛ распространить свое влияние на Афганистан и другие страны центрально-азиатского региона. Как отмечалось в первом докладе Рабочей группы «Афганский наркотрафик: совместная оценка угрозы», «связи между наркотрафиком и организованным вооруженным насилием (и транснациональными сетями криминального и террористического толка) служат источником новых типов угроз безопасности на региональном и глобальном уровнях.» (http://www.ewi.info/idea/afghan-narcotrafficking-joint-threat-assessment-russian-edition). Более подробный анализ этой связи, в частности в сфере использования финансовых доходов от мировой торговли афганскими наркотиками, Рабочая группа планирует представить в одном из своих очередных докладов в 2016 году.

The EastWest Institute has released a new report by a working group of Russian and U.S. experts on how the United States and Russia can jointly combat narcotrafficking out of Afghanistan. The joint U.S.-Russia working group previously has released two reports, Afghan Narcotrafficking: A Joint Threat Assessment in 2013 and Afghan Narcotrafficking: Post-2014 Scenarios in February 2015.

The paper points out that Afghanistan accounts for 80 percent of global opium and 74 percent of illicit opium production worldwide—90 percent of which is trafficked out of the country. Afghan heroin has created an addiction crisis in Russia, whereas for the United States the growing Afghan drug trade is further testimony to the failed decade long U.S.-led state-building exercise in the country.

The current publication comes at a time of increased tensions between the United States and Russia over Ukraine, which is detrimentally affecting joint efforts elsewhere in the world. “(…) [C]ooperation between the United States and Russia may not come easily even when confronting a common threat. Fallout from the Ukraine crisis has damaged the bilateral relationship to an extent that will take years to repair,” the study notes pessimistically.

Prior to the Ukraine crisis, both countries had slowly increased joint operations in the region. For example, back in 2010, Russian and American authorities seized approximately $60 million worth of opium during raids on four drug laboratories near the Afghanistan-Pakistan border. The EastWest paper elaborates:

"According to official data from the Federal Drug Control Service of the Russian Federation (FSKN), such cooperative operations continued through 2012, yielding a total of seven FSKN-DEA operations in the country. These operations resulted in seizures of 2.5 tons of opiates, 3.5 tons of hashish, 1.5 tons of morphine and 5.5 tons of precursors—along with the destruction of 10 drug laboratories."

However, even prior to the Ukraine crisis things did not always go smoothly between Moscow and Washington. Right around the time when United States state-building efforts intensified in Afghanistan (2008-2009), it became apparent that Moscow favored a more heavy-handed approach—a combination of opium eradication combined with interdiction efforts within Afghanistan and the destruction of laboratories—while Washington wanted to pursue a lighter touch campaign focused on drug interdiction in order not to further aggravate the Afghan population.

With the ongoing deterioration of Russia-West relations, the cooperation could potentially snap to a complete halt, although the U.S.-Russian working group does not seem to think this is likely. They offer a set of recommendations for Afghan, U.S., and Russian policymakers to consider. Here is a selection:

• Encourage Afghanistan to cooperate more actively with Iran to improve interdiction along the Afghan-Iranian border. (…)
• Speak with a common voice in matters of counternarcotics and border security in Central and South Asia and demand that Central Asian officials live up to the obligations of the counternarcotics and border management assistance that they have received. (…)
• Push Afghanistan and Pakistan to finalize the status of their frontier.(…)
• Deepen formal and informal cooperation across the FSKN and DEA field offices in Afghanistan and Central Asia.(…)
• Jointly expand multilateral training of Central Asian and Afghan border police, customs authorities and counternarcotics officers. (…)
• Establish joint positions on counternarcotics and border control at international bodies where these issues are discussed (…) 

According to the EastWest Institute, The State of Afghanistan’s Borders will be followed by three more reports in 2015 and 2016: two that will offer specific policy suggestions on alternative livelihood in Afghanistan and narco-financing and a final report presenting a compendium of all recommendations.

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To read this article at The Diplomat, click here.

How can economic development increase not only prosperity, but also security and stability in post-2014 Afghanistan and the region? Can Afghanistan reclaim its unique position as a transit route between resources in Central Asia, Southwest Asia and the booming Far East? And what are Pakistan’s challenges and opportunities in this scenario?

These were the dominant themes of the EastWest Institute’s advocacy and outreach mission to Pakistan’s capital of Islamabad from March 18-20, 2015, conducted as part of the Afghanistan Reconnected initiative (also referred to as the Abu Dhabi Process). The mission was carried out by a delegation of parliamentarians, former ministers and private sector experts from Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, the United States and Turkey. 

Vice President and Director of Regional Security Ambassador Martin Fleischer presented EWI’s activities in the region, introducing a keynote speech by Ambassador Miroslav Jenča, Special Representative of the UN Secretary-General for Central Asia and head of the United Nations Regional Centre for Preventive Diplomacy for Central Asia (UNRCCA). The high-level event was enriched by comments from Mr. James Appathurai, Deputy Assistant Secretary General for Political Affairs and Security Policy, and Secretary General’s Special Representative for the Caucasus and Central Asia, NATO; H.E. Mr. Homayoun Tandar, Ambassador of Afghanistan to the European Union, Belgium and Luxembourg; and H.E. Mr. Rustamjon Soliev, Ambassador of Tajikistan to the European Union, Belgium and Luxembourg. The roundtable discussion was moderated by Mr. Christian Forstner, head of the Hanns Seidel Foundation’s Brussels Center.

Ambassador Fleischer outlined the prospects for stability and cooperation in Afghanistan and Central Asia, presenting the steps taken by EWI’s Afghanistan Reconnected Process. This initiative aims at forging regional economic cooperation to minimize the economic impact of security transition in Afghanistan in the years to come, by engaging governments, Members of Parliament and private-sector leaders from the region. The Afghanistan Reconnected Process has identified energy trade and transit, cross-border trade facilitation and investment in regional transport infrastructure as most urgent areas of cooperation that can contribute to enhanced cooperation and economic security in the region. In 2015, EWI will undertake comprehensive regional advocacy and outreach missions for the implementation of the priority measures identified, with the private sector as main driver of the economic cooperation agenda.

While recognizing the value of EWI’s initiatives in the region, Ambassador Jenča acknowledged the increasing complexity of Central Asia and the need for more regional cooperation, in the interest of stability. The situation is not only related to the completion of NATO’s combat mandate in Afghanistan, the withdrawal of troops and the potential security implications on Central Asia, but also to other regional and broader challenges. In particular, the presence of Central Asian foreign fighters in the Middle East, the crisis in Ukraine, the falling ruble and prices of oil and gas, as well as the decreasing remittances of labor migrants from Central Asia in Russia also had a significant impact on the region and its stability.

Beyond the issue of regional cooperation, Ambassador Jenča wondered if countries of the region truly identified with Central Asia as a region. The lack of regional structures, limited cooperation, communication, transport links and cross-border trade, which stagnates at about 6 percent of total trade in each country, seem to suggest that this is not the case. The slow progress of the CASA 1000 and TAPI projects exemplify the skepticism encountered by cross-border initiatives, which require further stability and international community involvement to succeed.

At the same time, Ambassador Jenča mentioned that the main challenges and obstacles to stability often lie within Central Asian states. The succession of political leaders, socio-economic problems, marginalization, shortcomings in the rule of law, religious extremism, inter-ethnic tensions and organized crime are issues which need to be addressed by the countries in the region in particular through preventive efforts, which UNRCCA promotes. Moreover, the more stable, democratic and prosperous the countries will become, the more resistant they will be to external threats.

Despite the risks and threats faced by the region, Ambassador Jenča stressed that Central Asian states had made continuous progress in the past 20 years and had managed to keep the region stable. In this respect the international community needs to build upon and sustain the developments achieved in the region. As Central Asian states continue to diversify their foreign policy and partners to face increasing challenges, the EU has the opportunity to become an even more attractive partner in the region, and may consider more targeted support to Central Asia.

The ensuing discussion referred to the challenges posed to the region by unresolved border disputes, tensions over the use of common water resources and energy needs, marginalization and human rights questions, drug trafficking, terrorism and other forms of organized crime. Such trends continue to undermine regional stability and require concerted efforts by all countries of Central Asia to develop effective responses.

The regional dimension of the threat of violent extremism was strongly remarked, in light of the possible return of over 2,000 fighters from the region who joined the IS insurgency in Iraq and Syria. In addition, Ambassador Soliev noted that IS has announced future actions in Pakistan and Afghanistan, raising the level of alert of neighboring countries. A recent meeting of deputy foreign ministers from the region has discussed the issue at length in Ashgabat, Turkmenistan.

In addition, developments in Afghanistan are affecting security in Central Asia as a whole, as there is a potential threat of terrorist and extremist actions related to lesser control over the Afghan territory after the withdrawal of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF). In this respect, Ambassador Tandar stressed the key role of Afghanistan, which he described as “The Shield of Central Asia” in the fight against terrorism.

Speakers agreed that ISAF and the international community have not successfully addressed narco-trafficking stemming from Afghanistan during ISAF’s mandate, and that it is having an impact outside the country’s borders, feeding organized crime in the region and beyond. As the NATO presence decreases, poppy cultivation is increasing—as forecasted by UNODC, whose regional program on the topic is coming to an end. These developments may exacerbate the already fragile security situation in the region. Further commitment is therefore required from the international community. NATO is available to provide support to Central Asia in relation to narco-trafficking, as well as in the field of border control and transit through training and mapping exercises. However, its involvement should not be seen as part of a zero-sum game by other influential actors in the region, as it will not be embedded in a political agenda.

It was also mentioned that Central Asian states can play a more important role in stabilizing Afghanistan, using their comparative advantages of geographical proximity, cultural similarities, and potential for mutually beneficial regional cooperation. Countries in the region are already involved in Afghanistan’s energy, infrastructure, transport and capacity building, but further engagement is necessary. These countries, however, need to be supported by the international community in order to harvest the fruits of regional cooperation. In particular, Afghanistan needs to be better engaged in regional processes and relevant regional initiatives. At this critical time, international support for concrete projects is needed more than ever.

Speakers agreed that Central Asian states feel they need to survive between two powerhouses: Russia and China. The former’s influence in security and politics is great, and the latter’s economic clout is growing continuously.  This often puts countries in the region in front of difficult choices. For example, Ambassador Jenča referred to Kyrgyzstan’s decision to join the Eurasian Economic Union, as well as China’s pledge of 3 billion dollars for projects in the region, through its Silk Road Initiative. Central Asian states are strengthening ties with these partners, while others’ commitments to the region have been less consistent. In particular, the US’ interests in the region remain unclear, while the EU needs to show itself as a more appealing partner, beyond its ongoing engagement in the area.

Particular attention was paid to the EU’s involvement in Central Asia, thanks to the contribution of Members of European Parliament Dorfmann and Zeller from the audience. More specifically, they highlighted how the EU is lagging behind Russia and China in the establishment of its priorities in the region. After the launch of the EU Strategy for Central Asia in 2007, its role was largely neglected until the current Latvian EU Presidency, which has committed to producing a more focused updated strategy by the summer. The EU has nonetheless expanded its assistance to Central Asia, and the European Parliament has been supporting the region’s path towards democracy. Moreover, Ambassador Soliev reminded the audience about the upcoming EU-Central Asia High-level Security Dialogue, to be held on March 11, 2015, in Dushanbe, Tajikistan.

Ambassador Jenča stressed fostering cooperation and establishing partnerships as fundamental factors for advancements in the region. In particular, he recognized the commitments in this direction made by Afghanistan’s President Ashraf Ghani, who, since his inauguration has conducted numerous international missions aimed at strengthening ties with neighboring countries. Moreover, looking at the region as a whole, Ambassador Jenča concluded that cooperation between states in the region is an absolute priority for stability, and that the implementation of national reforms is key.

In this sense, in the margins of the conference, the UNSRSG and EWI formed a partnership for the final and critical phase of the Afghanistan Reconnected Process, aiming at advocating for reforms with governments in the region. By sharing the policy recommendations developed by business leaders from Central Asia and neighboring countries with concerned national administrations, the initiative will promote and support change towards enhanced economic cooperation and stability for the region.

The EastWest Institute has just released Afghan Narcotrafficking: Post-2014 Scenarios, the second report out by its working group of Russian and U.S. experts. As Afghanistan now faces an uncertain political and security environment following the drawdown of ISAF troops at the end of 2014, the potential for a worsening narcotrafficking threat is great.

The report states that the potential for deterioration “underscores the imperative need for Russian and U.S. policymakers to find the political will to resume and perhaps even increase cooperation despite ongoing differences on other issues. Together with regional partners and international organizations, renewed Russian-U.S. cooperation presents the best hope for a brighter future.”

Senator Dianne Feinstein issued the same call for cooperation in a December 2014 report by the United States Senate Caucus on International Narcotics Control, in which she wrote: “The simple fact is that Afghan narcotics pose serious security and health threats to both the United States and Russia. We should find opportunities to jointly address this shared problem.”

The working group’s first report, Afghan Narcotrafficking: A Joint Threat Assessment, came out in 2013. Post-2014 Scenarios will be followed by three more reports in 2015 and 2016 offering specific policy suggestions on border security, alternative livelihood in Afghanistan and narco-financing, with a final report presenting a compendium of all recommendations.

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