Key Developments

April 5: Several thousand pro-Russian demonstrators attacked a prosecutor’s office in the town of Mariupol in Donetsk, followed by attacks on Ukrainian government buildings in two Eastern cities–Donetsk and Lukhansk. The attacks followed the Ukrainian government’s announcement that it had arrested members of an armed gang plotting to seize power on April 10 in Lukhansk (the main city of the country’s easternmost province).

April 6: President Oleksandr Turchynov's office said that he had canceled a planned visit to Lithuania this week to take charge over the developing situation in eastern Ukraine. ITAR-TASS subsequently reported that security service officers yielded to  protesters’ demands and released six arrested activists from a pro-Russian organization in Lukhansk.

April 7: Pro-Russian activists occupying regional administration buildings in Donetsk have declared that they represent the “Dontesk People’s Republic” and indicated their intent to hold a secession referendum by May 11. They have requested troop support from Russian President Putin. Meanwhile, Ukrainian PM Yatsenyuk accused Russia of sowing unrest as a pretext for invading the eastern provinces, and accused Putin of planning “to divide Ukraine into parts and to turn part of Ukraine into a territory of slavery under a Russian dictatorship.” In the Crimean village of Novofedorivka, a Russian soldier shot and killed an off-duty Ukrainian naval officer in what appears to have been a personal argument. 

Government Statements:

Speech by NATO Deputy Secretary General Ambassador Alexander Vershbow to the 21st International Conference on Euro-Atlantic Security, Krakow, Poland, “A new strategic reality in Europe,” 4 April 2014

Speech by the Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and his answers to questions during joint press conference with the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Kazakhstan, Erlan Idrisov, 3 April 2014

News Items:

James G. Neuger, “NATO Condemns Russia’s ‘Propaganda’ as Lavrov Cries Foul,” Bloomberg Businessweek, 4 April 2014

Mark Silva, “Obama’s Russian Reset Lost in Putin’s Translations,” Bloomberg Businessweek, 4 April 2014

Thomas Grove, “Russia recalls military representative in rebuke to NATO,” Reuters, 3 April 2014

Simon Shuster, “Ukraine and Russia Demonize Each Other With Claims of Terrorism,” Time, 3 April 2014

“Kiev Ignored Independent Sniper Case Assessment – Lavrov,” RIA Novosti, 4 April 2014

Natalia Zinets, Richard Balmforth and Paul Ingrassia, “Ukraine PM says will stick to austerity despite Moscow pressure,” Chicago Tribune, 4 April 2014

Agence France-Press, “Ukraine eyes coal after Russian gas price hike,” GlobalPost, 4 April 2014

Kathy Lally, “Pro-Russian protests diminish in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk region,” The Washington Post, 3 April 2014

Kenneth Rapoza, “Russia Helped Ukraine, But Now Ukraine Needs More, IMF's Lagarde Says,” Forbes, 3 April 2014

“EU must be ready with Russia sanctions over Ukraine: UK,” Reuters, 4 April 2014.

Fyodor Lukyanov, “Does Russia need America?,” Russia Beyond the Headlines, 4 April 2014

Sir Rodric Braithwaite, “Is the crisis in Ukraine a plum ripe for picking?,” Russia Beyond the Politics, 3 April 2014

Speaking to an audience of foreign policy and intelligence professionals, as well as global investors, Major General (MG) Davis addressed NATO’s response to the Ukraine crisis and the changing dynamic of NATO-Russia relations in recent months. MG Davis stressed the importance of fulfilling commitments to NATO partners such as Ukraine, in addition to its formal members, and in distinguishing the difference between “security partnerships versus a defense alliance.” Recent developments confirm Russia’s role as a competitor or challenger to NATO, rather than a strategic partner, and as such, the Trans-Atlantic community must conduct a joint threat assessment to re-think the implications of Russian actions and policy with respect to deterrence and defense. 

NATO members must also revisit the assumption that eastern and southeastern expansion is a stabilizing force for international security, MG Davis explained. As reflected in Putin’s Kremlin speech on March 18, Russia’s worldview is fundamentally divergent from U.S. and European interests and deeply influenced by its historical context. With this in mind, MG Davis assessed that Russian grand actions—such as its annexation of Crimea—may not necessarily reflect a grand strategy. These actions could just as likely be driven by perceptions of opportunity or even narrow interests.

Both the U.S. and NATO must also face the reality of budgetary constraints and reduced defense spending. A review of threats to NATO’s collective defense may very well lead to capability adjustments in key areas, and in the near term, has already lead to a need to review defense plans, force posture and exercises. Looking forward, MG Davis expressed measured optimism, recognizing the need to execute well-prepared plans that reflect a new security environment and emerging challenges NATO faces in 21st century geopolitics. 

Key Developments

• At a joint news conference with other members of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov expressed concern that Western influence will interfere with the process of Ukraine’s constitutional reform, stating that “the West has taken up the role of arbiter of Ukraine's fate, while the current authorities ... lack significant independence.”
   
• Russia recalled its ambassador to NATO on Thursday, following NATO’s decision to suspend cooperation with Russia. 
   
• Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) detained 25 Ukrainians on Thursday on accusations that they are members of ultra-nationalist movements and were planning terrorist attacks inside Russia on orders from Ukraine’s Security Service. 
   
• Ukraine is in emergency talks with European neighbors to discuss the obstacles to importing gas from the West into Ukraine. The meetings come after Russia nearly doubled the price of gas being exported to Ukraine in the last three days and warnings from Ukrainian President Yatsenyuk that Russia could potentially increase pressure on Ukraine by limiting the supply of gas.
   
  • U.S.-based energy company Westinghouse Electric Co. is in negotiations with Ukrainian energy supplier Energoatom to extend its contract to provide nuclear fuel for the country’s reactors. Besides Westinghouse, Russia’s state-owned Rosatom is the only producer of fuel for this particular type of reactor. Such a deal would foster a greater commitment between Ukraine and the West while decreasing Ukraine’s energy dependency on Russia.
     
• NATO jets took part in an air patrol over Lithuania as an act of reassurance to its Eastern European members.
   
• On Thursday, President Obama signed into law the bill that provides $1 billion in loans to Ukraine. President Obama also met with Congressional leaders at the White House on Thursday for talks on the Ukraine Crisis.

Government Statements:

Speech by NATO Deputy Secretary General Ambassador Alexander Vershbow to the 21st International Conference on Euro-Atlantic Security, Krakow, Poland, “A new strategic reality in Europe,” 4 April 2014

Speech by the Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and his answers to questions during joint press conference with the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Kazakhstan, Erlan Idrisov, 3 April 2014

News Items:

James G. Neuger, “NATO Condemns Russia’s ‘Propaganda’ as Lavrov Cries Foul,” Bloomberg Businessweek, 4 April 2014

Mark Silva, “Obama’s Russian Reset Lost in Putin’s Translations,” Bloomberg Businessweek, 4 April 2014

Thomas Grove, “Russia recalls military representative in rebuke to NATO,” Reuters, 3 April 2014

Simon Shuster, “Ukraine and Russia Demonize Each Other With Claims of Terrorism,” Time, 3 April 2014

“Kiev Ignored Independent Sniper Case Assessment – Lavrov,” RIA Novosti, 4 April 2014

Natalia Zinets, Richard Balmforth and Paul Ingrassia, “Ukraine PM says will stick to austerity despite Moscow pressure,” Chicago Tribune, 4 April 2014

Agence France-Press, “Ukraine eyes coal after Russian gas price hike,” GlobalPost, 4 April 2014

Kathy Lally, “Pro-Russian protests diminish in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk region,” The Washington Post, 3 April 2014

Kenneth Rapoza, “Russia Helped Ukraine, But Now Ukraine Needs More, IMF's Lagarde Says,” Forbes, 3 April 2014

“EU must be ready with Russia sanctions over Ukraine: UK,” Reuters, 4 April 2014.

Fyodor Lukyanov, “Does Russia need America?,” Russia Beyond the Headlines, 4 April 2014

Sir Rodric Braithwaite, “Is the crisis in Ukraine a plum ripe for picking?,” Russia Beyond the Politics, 3 April 2014

Key Developments

• On Wednesday, NASA confirmed that it will suspend most of its engagement with its Russian counterpart, Roscosmos, due to the issues in Ukraine. NASA will suspend travel to Russia, visits by Russian government officials and even email exchanges with Russian officials, but the two agencies will “continue to work together to maintain safe and continuous operation of the International Space Station.

• Security chiefs in Ukraine accused former President Yanukovych of ordering the February shooting of anti-government protesters in Kiev. These charges follow the arrest of 12 members of the Berkut riot police, who were responsible for more than 100 shooting deaths.

• On Thursday, 16 Ukrainian senior officers joined a NATO military exercise in Bulgaria as a sign of cooperation. The officers joined more than 700 troops from 13 NATO nations. The exercise is being held only a few hundred miles from the Crimean peninsula.  

• According to senior U.S. defense officials, the U.S. Navy is sending a ship to the Black Sea within the coming week to show continued support for Ukraine. The ship will take part in multilateral exercises. There is only one other U.S. Navy ship in the Black Sea, which was deployed on March 21.

• With 40,000 Russian troops near the Ukrainian border, NATO has promised to increase troops in Eastern Europe to quell fear of Russian influence. Russian officials stated that any move by NATO to increase its permanent presence in the region would violate a 1997 NATO-Russian cooperation treaty. The continued presence of Russian troops has NATO military chiefs concerned that Putin’s plans go beyond just Crimea, and possibly into Eastern Europe. However, Russian officials have stated that troops will return to their regular bases after military exercises have been completed.

News and Analysis

Alexei Anishchuk, “Russian Diplomat: US Should ‘Practice Yoga, Stick to Food-Combining Diets,’ And Forget Crimea’s Annexation”, Business Insider, 4/3/14

Michelle Arrouas, “NATO Chief Says Russia Could Attack Ukraine Without Warning”, Time, 4/3/14

C.J. Chivers and David M. Herszenhorn, “In Crimea, Russia Showcases a Rebooted Army”, The New York Times, 4/2/14

Vladimir Soldatkin, “Russia Hikes Gas Prices for Ukraine by 80 Percent”, Reuters, 4/3/14

Tom Cohen, “Is Crimea gone? Annexation No Longer the Focus of Ukraine Crisis”, CNN, 4/1/14

Andrew Roth, “Ukraine Moves to Disarm Paramilitary Groups”, The New York Times, 4/1/14

Key Developments

• In an interview with the Associated Press, ousted Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych admitted that he was wrong to invite Russian troops into Crimea and vowed to restore Crimea as a part of Ukraine.
   
• NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe, General Philip Breedlove has warned that Russia could invade Ukraine and within three to five days could achieve a number of objectives, including establishing a land corridor connecting Russia to Crimea and even the Moldovan separatist region of Transniestria, and further seizing the Eastern and Southern parts of Ukraine.
   
• General Breedlove also informed the NATO foreign ministers that NATO intelligence has found no signs that Russian troops have begun to withdraw from the Ukrainian border; days after Russian President Vladimir Putin reassured German Chancellor Angela Merkel that he was withdrawing some of the Russian troops.
   
• NATO has effectively halted all practical and military cooperation with Russia.  NATO foreign ministers have further directed the NATO military to develop measures to further reassure its Eastern European members.
   
• After meeting with his German and French counterparts, Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski told reporters that Poland wanted NATO to deploy two brigades (with as many as 5,000 troops each) to the country.  Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk further expressed that the steps taken by NATO have fallen short of the expectations of its eastern members.
   
• Gazprom, the Russian state-owned natural gas company, has raised the price of natural gas sold to Ukraine by 44%.  While the company claims that the price increase stemmed from unpaid Ukrainian debt, Gazprom has previously used punitive pricing to punish countries at odds with Russia.
   
• Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov has called on Ukraine to publicize the steps being taken to institute constitutional reform.
   
• The Ukrainian parliament has ordered security forces to disarm illegally armed groups after a shooting incident where three individuals were wounded in Kiev.

Government Statements

John Kerry, “Press Availability at NATO,” U.S. Department of State, 1 April 2014

“NATO takes measures to reinforce collective defence, agrees on support for Ukraine,” NATO, 1 April 2014

Articles

Carol Kriel and Vladimir Isachenkov, “AP Interview: Yanuykovych Hopes for Crimea’s Return,” Associated Press, 2 April 2014

“Russia steps up pressure on Ukraine to disarm far-right,” Reuters, 2 April 2014

David Frum, “Russia’s Plans to Partition Ukraine,” The Atlantic, 2 April 2014

“Ukraine Constitution reform unlikely without teamwork with society – Russian FM,” ITAR-TASS, 2 April 2014

Rajan Menon, “Why the Ukraine Crisis Won’t Save NATO,” The National Interest, 1 April 2014

Robert Farley, “No, F-22s Can’t Save Ukraine,” Medium – War is Boring, 1 April 2014

Adrian Croft, “Russia could achieve Ukraine incursion in 3-5 days: NATO general,” Reuters, 1 April 2014

Michael R. Gordon, “NATO to Firm Up Its Presence in Eastern Europe as It Halts Cooperation with Russia,” The New York Times, 1 April 2014

Andrew E. Kramer, “Russia Tightens Pressure on Ukraine with Rise in Natural Gas Price,” The New York Times, 1 April 2014

Tom Cohen, “Is Crimea Gone?  Annexation no longer the focus of Ukraine crisis,” CNN, 1 April 2014

Agnes Lovasz, “Dashed Ikea Dreams Show Decades Lost to Bribery in Ukraine,” Bloomberg, 31 March 2014

Alexander Kliment, “Putin’s Fairy Tale: Why Russia Will Try – and Fail – To Build a New Empire,” Foreign Affairs, 31 March 2014

Eugene Rumer, Andrew S. Weiss, Ulrich Speck, Lina Khatib, George Perkovich, and Douglas H. Paal, “What Are the Global Implications of the Ukraine Crisis?,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 27 March 2014

Key Developments

• According to NATO and U.S. military sources, 40,000 Russian troops have massed on Ukraine’s eastern borders and are engaged in activity that could be a prelude to an invasion.

• Originally called to Washington, D.C. to testify before Congress this week, NATO Supreme Allied Commander and Commander of U.S. European Command, General Philip Breedlove, was sent back to Europe on Saturday in the face of growing uncertainty in Ukraine.

• In a trip condemned by Ukraine, Russian Prime Minister Medvedev arrived in Crimea on Monday morning. In televised remarks, Medvedev announced that Crimea would be made a special economic zone.

• Russian President Vladimir Putin called President Obama on Friday to discuss a diplomatic resolution to the Ukrainian crisis.

• Secretary of State John Kerry met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Paris on Sunday to discuss ways of de-escalating the crisis. Both sides have agreed that a political solution is necessary for .

• Kerry called on Russia to demobilize its troops deployed on the Ukrainian border and indicated that the U.S. continues to view Russian actions in Ukraine as illegal and illegitimate.
• Both sides agreed to a number of priorities, including: “the rights of national minorities; language rights; demobilization and disarmament of irregular forces and provocateurs; an inclusive constitutional reform process, and free and fair elections monitored by the international community”.
• Russia proposed that the Ukrainian government be federalized: power would be decentralized away from Kiev and the president and granted to provincial governors.

• In an interview on ABC’s This Week, Russian Ambassador to the U.S., Sergey Kislyak, said that “Crimea is a part of [the] Russian Federation.”
   
• On CNN, Senator Dianne Feinstein (D-CA), chair of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, conceded that the Crimea issue was “done” and that any future discussion would need to move beyond Crimea.

• NATO foreign ministers are scheduled to meet on Tuesday and Wednesday to decide on additional steps in response to the Ukrainian crisis.

• According to Reuters, Russia threatened several countries in Eastern Europe, Central Asia and Africa with reprisals if they voted in favor of the UN General Assembly resolution condemning the Crimea referendum.
   

Government Statements

John Kerry, “Press Availability – Paris, France,” U.S. Department of State, March 30, 2014

“Readout of the President’s Call with President Putin,” The White House, March 28, 2014

“General Assembly Adopts Resolution Calling Upon States not to Recognize Changes in Status of Crimea Region – 100 Votes in Favour, 11 Against, 58 Abstentions for Text on Ukraine,” United Nations General Assembly, March 27, 2014

Articles and Analysis

Paul Taylor, “Ten Ways the Ukraine Crisis May Change the World,” Reuters, March 31, 2014

Robert Spalding III, “America’s Secret Weapon to Stop Russia,” The National Interest, March 31, 2014

BBC, “Ukraine angered by Russia PM Medvedev’s visit to Crimea,” BBC News, March 31, 2014

Brad Knickerbocker, “Putin, Obama maneuver over crisis in Ukraine. Whose advantage?,” The Cristian Science Monitor, March 30, 2014

Anne Gearan, “Kerry, Russia’s Lavrov Fail to Reach Deal Over Ukraine, Say They Will Keep Talking,” The Washington Post, March 30, 2014

Nick Gass, “Russian Ambassador Says ‘Crimea is a Part’ of Russia,” Politico, March 30, 2014

Simon Tisdall and Rory Carroll, “Russia Sets Terms for Ukraine Deal as 40,000 Troops Mass on Border,” The Guardian, March 30, 2014

Andrew E. Kramer, “Ukraine’s Hopes Riding on Chocolatier,” The New York Times, March 29, 2014

Louis Charbonneau, “Russia Threatened Countries Ahead of UN Vote on Ukraine–Envoys,” Reuters, March 28, 2014

Jonathan Weisman, “Kremlin Finds a Defender in Congress,” The New York Times, March 28, 2014

Jonathan Marcus, “Analysis: Could Russia Absorb Eastern Ukraine?,” BBC News, March 28, 2014

James Traub, “The Enemy We’ve Been Waiting For,” Foreign Policy, March 27, 2014

Nate Jones, “Vladimir Channels the Gipper,” Foreign Policy, March 27, 2014

Clifford Krauss, “Potential Crackdown on Russia Risks Also Punishing Western Oil Companies,” The New York Times, March 27, 2014

BBC, "Vladimir Putin: The Rebuilding of ‘Soviet’ Russia,” BBC News, March 27, 2014

Full Interview Transcript: 

HARI SREENIVASAN: Finally tonight, “The Connection.” There’s the old saying that those who don’t know history are doomed to repeat it. The Russian Navy agreed to pull out of the Black Sea around Crimea on March 30. Not this March 30, but 158 years ago today.

Into the time machine we go.

During the 1850’s, the Imperial Army of Czarist Russia fought forces from Britain, France, the Ottoman Empire and the Kingdom of Sardinia for control of … wait for it … the Crimean Peninsula and the surrounding Black Sea.

FRANZ-STEFAN GADY: I do think that in the heads of the Russian leadership this always was, in one way or another, Russian territory

HARI SREENIVASAN: Historian Franz-Stefan Gady is a senior fellow at the EastWest Institute. He says back then, Russia’s rationale for fighting in Crimea was to protect the local population. Sound familiar?

FRANZ-STEFAN GADY: I do think that there’s a pattern in history in general that certain states are just sort of unlucky being buffer states between two great empires.

HARI SREENIVASAN: The fighting in Crimea back then was so intense that hundreds of thousands of men lost their lives during the nearly three-year conflict.

The war inspired great writers.

Tennyson wrote the “Charge of the Light Brigade” about British Cavalry fighting in that Crimean conflict, including his now famous verse: their’s not to reason why, their’s but to do and die.

As a young man, Leo Tolstoy served as an artillery officer in the war and later wrote about it.

HARI SREENIVASAN: In “The Sevastopol Sketches,” he described how a Russian soldier coped with the pain after an amputation. The character says, “If you don’t think, it is nothing much. It mostly all comes from thinking.” A variation of that idea could be if you don’t mind, it doesn’t matter.

The world is watching whether the Europeans and Americans mind what’s happening in Ukraine, and whether whatever they do, or don’t do in the coming weeks, will matter. And what happens at the negotiating table may determine what lessons from history have been learned or if they will just be repeated once more.

Photo Credit: David Farrer

Key Developments 

• The IMF agreed to $14-$18 billion in loans to Ukraine . Subject to approval at April’s IMF  board meeting, the two-year package offers financial support to prevent a Ukrainian default, in exchange for reforms that will unlock additional bilateral and multilateral assistance, totaling up to $27 billion. The roadmap for reform includes:
   
  • An end to subsidized gas, with a 79 percent price increase as of April 1, and the removal of all energy subsidies by 2016.
     
  • A flexible exchange rate, replacing Ukraine’s current currency peg, as well as fiscal reforms to lower the national deficit.
     
  • New anti-corruption legislation.
     
• The U.N. General Assembly passed a resolution declaring that Crimea's annexation referendum is invalid. It affirms Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, and calls upon states, international organizations  and agencies not to recognize any change in Crimea’s status. The vote was 100 in favor and 11 opposed, with 58 abstentions. The General Assembly resolution is not legally-binding.
   
• A package that combines Ukrainian aid and Russian sanctions passed both the House and Senate, clearing the way for White House approval.
   
• Yulia Tymoshenko, former Ukrainian Prime Minister, announced that she will run for president in May’s election. As the leader of Ukraine’s “Fatherland” party,  Tymoshenko was released from jail following the ouster of former President Victor Yanukovych. In a press conference announcing her candidacy, Tymoshenko declared President Putin as Ukraine’s “number one enemy.”
   
• In order to sidestep U.S. sanctions, President Putin announced that Russia will develop a new payment network, allowing its citizens to bypass U.S.-based systems.

Government Statements

“Full Transcript: President Obama Gives Speech Addressing Europe, Russia on March 26,” The Washington Post, 26 March 2014

News and Analysis

Ian Bremmer, “A Tortured Policy Toward Russia” (Op-Ed), The New York Times, 26 March 2014

Natalia Zinets, “IMF Throws Ukraine Financial Lifeline, Russian Economy to Slump,” Reuters, 27 March 2014

Rumer et al, “What are the Global Implications of the Ukraine Crisis?” (Q&A), Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 27 March 2014

Robert Kahn, “Ukraine and IMF: Step Forward Now,” Council on Foreign Relations, 27 March 2014

The Economist, “America and the IMF: Dereliction of Duty,” The Economist, 29 March 2014 (print edition)

Ian Wallace, “Ukraine Crisis, Target Breach and Edward Snowden: What’s Next for U.S. Cyber Policy?” Brookings, 25 March 2014

James Surowiecki, “Putin’s Power Play,” The New Yorker, 24 March 2014