Regional Security
Political Islam in Sudan: A Focus on External Rivalries
Writing for African Liberty, EWI Program Assistant for the Middle East and North Africa program, Desirée Custers, discusses the connection between political Islam and extra-regional actors in Sudan, arguing that external rivalries can impede the democratic transition.
Sudan’s recent measures to decrease strict Islamic restrictions clearly show the country’s break from a radical form of Islamic ruling associated with the former president Omar al-Bashir, who was ousted in 2019. This article will focus on the relationship between political Islam and extra-regional actors in Sudan, arguing that external influences could negatively affect Sudan’s transition towards a democratic government in the face of increased economic and social pressure.
Islam, the Sudanese Revolution, and External Actors
Although the break from a strict Islamic rule stems from the decades-long political mismanagement by al-Bashir’s Islamist National Congress Party (NCP), it should not be seen as independent of Sudan’s political environment, in which extra-regional powers use an Islamic political narrative to advance their geostrategic interests. As such, Turkey and Qatar are considered backers of political Islam and are associated with the Muslim Brotherhood, of which Sudan’s al-Bashir was an offspring. By contrast, the UAE and Saudi Arabia oppose Islamic political ideologies. These intra-Sunni politics are played out among others in Libya, Tunisia, Egypt, and Sudan.
Click here to read the full article on African Liberty.
Click here to read an Indonesian translation of the article on Republika.co.id.
Brussels MENA Briefing: How to Rescue Sudan’s Transition Process
On July 7, the EastWest Institute (EWI) and the Center for Applied Research in Partnership with the Orient (CARPO) hosted their fifth “Brussels MENA Briefing”—a series of after-work briefings on the MENA region—focusing on how to rescue Sudan’s transition process, as well as the role the international community can play in Sudan’s political transition.
Speakers included Yasir Zaidan, lecturer of international affairs and security studies at the National University of Sudan, and Dr. Annette Weber, senior fellow at the Africa and Middle East division of the German Institute for International and Security Studies (SWP) in Berlin. EWI’s Vice President of the MENA program, Kawa Hassan, served as moderator.
What started in Sudan as a demonstration against austerity measures in December 2018, turned into a mass peaceful revolution that led to the ousting of long-ruling president Omar Al-Bashir on April 11, 2019. Military and civilian leaders signed a power-sharing agreement in August 2019, initiating a transition towards a democratic government under the guidance of Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok and Chairman of Sudan's ruling Transitional Military Council, Lieutenant-General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan. The military members are to lead the council for the first 22 months, followed by civilian leadership, with elections scheduled for 2022.
However, as the speakers remarked, to successfully complete the transition in the face of political and economic challenges, Sudan needs the support of the international community. It was pointed out during the briefing that the military still holds much of the economic power and is interfering in civilian portfolios, such as foreign affairs. Due to the dire economic situation and the serious health challenges presented by COVID-19, the transitional government lacks the means for many of its policy initiatives. One speaker noted the lack of resources needed to create institutions that support the democratic process, such as an electoral institution.
In this respect, the speakers pointed out that the Sudan Partnership Conference co-hosted by Germany, the EU, the UN and Sudan offered some solace. The donor conference, held virtually from Berlin on June 25, included the financial support of delegations from 40 countries and 15 international organizations. Although the conference did not reach the financial goals hoped for by the Sudanese transitional government, both speakers stressed that the conference led to several breakthroughs.
One speaker observed that the conference brought international attention to Sudan and the EU’s political support of protesters’ demands was perceived positively by Sudanese civilians. Others highlighted the important steps made by international financial institutions towards debt relief, despite Sudan remaining on the U.S. “State Sponsor of Terrorism” list. Lastly, the discussants noted that the conference acknowledged the measures taken by the Sudanese transitional government towards progress in economic reform, such as setting up anti-corruption commissions and freezing bank accounts linked to the former regime.
Despite these important breakthroughs, the discussants pointed to several areas in need of further attention, both from the international community and within Sudan. As the experts noted, it is important that the transitional government communicates its achievements, such as its positive economic reform policies, to its citizens. Furthermore, there is a need for a broader representation within the transitional process. Another finding drawn from the briefing is that the youth, a driving force in the revolution, need to translate their political movement into political influence.
As for the international community, the speakers concluded that there must be common understanding among external actors—from Gulf countries to the EU—and the Sudanese transitional government on key concepts such as democracy, economic reform and security. This need is urgent, considering the fragility of Sudan’s transition in a region full of unrest.
About the Brussels MENA Briefings
The Brussels MENA Briefings are in-depth round-table discussions on topics of current significance in the MENA region hosted by EWI and CARPO bimonthly, the first week of every second month. As in-person-briefings are impossible due to COVID-19, EWI and CARPO have temporarily turned this series into a monthly webinar. Please note that attendance is by invitation only.
Should you be interested in being considered for the invitation list, kindly send an email to Desirée Custers mentioning your name, affiliation and geographical or thematic area of interest and expertise in the Middle East.
Dates for upcoming Brussels MENA Briefings:
Tuesday, September 8, 2020: (topic tbd)
Event Reports from Previous Briefings:
"A New Iraqi Government in Place: Challenges and Opportunities for Iraq in its Neighborhood" (June 2020)
"The Status Quo of the Libya Conflict: Is the Berlin Process Obsolete?" (May 2020)
"Post-Sultan Qaboos Oman: Transition Opportunities and Challenges" (April 2020)
"Iran After Parliamentary Elections" (March 2020)
Hassan Attends Webinar on U.S.-European Security Engagement in Iraq
On July 14, EWI's Vice President of the Middle East and North Africa Program Kawa Hassan participated in a webinar hosted by the German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF) and Konrad Adenauer Stiftung (KAS) entitled "Navigating Stormy Weather: Dissecting the European and U.S. Contribution to Security and Stability in Iraq."
Other speakers included Sajad Jiyad, visiting fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations' (ECFR) Middle East and North Africa programme, and Kirsten Fontenrose, director of the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative at the Atlantic Council. The webinar was moderated by Louisa Loveluck, Baghdad bureau chief for The Washington Post.
Kawa Hassan highlighted several key takeaways from EWI and CARPO's ongoing joint project: "Iraq and Its Neighbors." Based on intensive engagement and partnership with officials and experts from Iraq, Hassan said it has become clear that Iraqis trust the EU and do not percieve it as a threat. He believes that the EU can assist Iraq to become a center for regional dialogue and cooperation in many areas, including addressing the impacts of climate change, economic and energy cooperation and people-to-people exchanges.
Click here to watch the webinar.
Business Dialogue Algeria-Morocco: Webinar on Women’s Empowerment
On July 7, the EastWest Institute convened a webinar entitled “Women’s Empowerment and Entrepreneurship: Challenges and Opportunities,” in cooperation with its partner organizations, the German–Algerian and German–Moroccan Chambers of Industry and Commerce.
The webinar brought together four high-ranking female business leaders, two each from Algeria and Morocco, to take part in a cross-border business dialogue aiming to promote greater economic connectivity between the two countries. It marked the second event in a year-long project, which commenced with an initial conference early this year on “Food Security and Agriculture” in Berlin.
Funded by the German Foreign Office, the project seeks to promote a climate of trust by bringing pragmatic business professionals together to identify creative solutions for circumnavigating the closed border currently preventing the two countries from conducting greater cross-border trade.
During the two-hour discussion, participants highlighted the shared economic complementarity from which both countries could and should profit. A border closure since 1994 is the chief reason behind both countries’ inability to tap into this economic potential. All parties participating in the webinar argued the political standstill behind the installation of the closure is the primary trade complication that unnecessarily drives the business communities on either side of the border to export to third countries in Europe rather than with each other.
Even during these unprecedented times of the COVID-19 crisis, the political situation between Algiers and Rabat continues to prevent both countries from governing in more practical terms, as personified by the fact Moroccan-made face masks and other PPE are still mainly exported to Europe rather than across the border, despite a huge demand in Algeria.
A particularly noteworthy topic during the debate centered on female cooperatives and women’s business organizations, with participants noting these types of female associations are much more prevalent among rural women in Morocco than in Algeria. Participants from both countries agreed that a much more intense exchange between female-run cooperatives at this level would greatly benefit rural communities on either side of the border by providing employment, as well as special know-how and marketing for region-specific agricultural products. Furthermore, all parties identified trade fairs as a unique platform for entrepreneurs to work closer together and exchange ideas.
Finally, towards the end of the discussion, the German-Algeria Chamber of Commerce AHK, together with German Society for International Cooperation (GIZ), launched the creation of a business platform for the regional medical sector. This initiative is a first step in generating greater contact between business professionals from Algeria and Tunisia (with the hope of eventually incorporating Morocco) to exchange information, experiences and modes of best practice as a catalyst for greater cooperation and regional integration.
EWI’s Algeria-Morocco Business Dialogue is an ongoing project within its Middle East and North Africa program and its next conference is scheduled to take place in October this year either in Berlin or via video conference.
Click here to read a French translation of this event report.
Click here to read an Arabic translation of this event report.
EWI Hosts Fourth "Balkan Dialogues" Webinar on Kosovo-Serbia Agreement
On July 1, EWI’s Balkan program organized a digital meeting on the “Kosovo Serbia Agreement: Beginning with the End in Mind”—the fourth session in its Balkan Dialogues series.
The webinar hosted 150 attendees and 20 speakers, including Miroslav Lajcak, chief EU negotiator for the Belgrade-Pristina Dialogue; Mathew Palmer, State Department Special Envoy for the Balkans; Ambassador Wolfgang Ischinger; Dr. Michael Carpenter, managing director of the Penn Biden Center; Ambassador Cameron Munter; and many other experts and diplomats.
In a lively discussion, the speakers employed cautious optimism, exchanging views on the current status of the Kosovo-Serbia negotiations, as well as the troubling state of relations between the EU and the U.S. All participants argued that dialogue between Serbia and Kosovo has no alternative, and should resume as soon as possible under EU leadership, in partnership with the U.S. The panelists also unanimously agreed that the Euro-Atlantic partnership, being the key historical geopolitical alliance "which ended World War II," needs to be once again strengthened.
Following the event, multiple media reports and analyses appeared in print and electronic media across the Balkans. Numerous comments submitted to organizers after the event emphasized that continued efforts through the Balkan Dialogues will have a crucial role for the success of Serbia-Kosovo negotiations in the months to come.
The next session is slated to take place by the end of September, with several smaller discussions focused on individual elements of key importance for the sustainable agreement, organized in the meantime.
EastWest Institute has launched the Balkan Dialogues initiative in response to the urgent need for inclusive and open, high-level dialogue concerning pressing security challenges threatening the Western Balkans, aiming to increase and deepen understanding and build trust between representatives of the various geopolitical interests present in the region today. For more information on the initiative, please click here.
Media coverage from the event:
Hassan to Participate in Online Seminar on U.S.-European Security Engagement in Iraq
On July 14, Kawa Hassan, director of EWI's Middle East and North Africa program, will participate in an online seminar entitled "Navigating Stormy Weather: Dissecting the European and U.S. Contribution to Security and Stability in Iraq."
The webinar—organized by the German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF) and Konrad Adenauer Stiftung (KAS)—will also feature Sajad Jyhad, visiting fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations' Middle East and North Africa programme; Kristen Fontenrose, director of the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative; and will be moderated by Louisa Loveluck, Baghdad bureau chief for The Washington Post.
Click here to register and to learn more.
New Iraqi Government in Place: Challenges and Opportunities for Iraq in its Neighborhood
On June 9, the EastWest Institute (EWI) and the Center for Applied Research in Partnership with the Orient (CARPO) hosted their fourth “Brussels MENA Briefing”—a series of afterwork briefings on the MENA region—focusing on challenges facing the new Iraqi government, as well as the role the European Union (EU) can play in supporting the new government in Baghdad.
Speakers included Sajad Jiyad, visiting fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) and former managing director of the Al-Bayan Center for Planning and Studies based in Baghdad, and Daniela Verena Huber, head of the Mediterranean and Middle East Program of the Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI). EWI’s Vice President of the MENA program, Kawa Hassan, severed as moderator.
On May 6, after nearly six months of political deadlock, Iraq swore in a new government headed by Mustafa Al-Kadhimi, chief of the Iraqi National Intelligence Service. Both speakers stressed the new prime minister would seven daunting challenges in his new role: collapsing oil prices; the COVID-19 pandemic; meeting protesters’ demands for an early election; tackling rampant corruption of ruling elites; holding government officials and paramilitaries responsible for the violent crackdown of the October uprising accountable; addressing the proxy conflict between the U.S. and Iran in Iraq, as well as developing balanced relations with the two external powers; and increasing ISIS attacks.
Concerning Iraq’s internal socio-economic and political challenges, the experts elaborated on the EU’s potential role in supporting the development of a welfare state that would increase the government’s legitimacy, helping it tackle ubiquitous corruption. In addition, an Iraqi welfare state could provide an alternative to ethno-sectarian identity politics, which have often been instrumentalized for political advantages by both internal and external forces. Furthermore, the briefing shed light on the significance of the EU’s support of Iraq’s territorial integrity and ability to carry out federal solutions within a unified country.
Since 2003, Iraq has been a battleground for the U.S.-Iran proxy conflict. Experts noted that Iraq must formulate a policy to maintain good, diplomatic relations with both powers, pointing to the June 11 U.S.-Iraq strategic dialogue as an example forward. One speaker highlighted that this dialogue might help the U.S. to facilitate the process of Iraq acquiring loans from the IMF and World Bank to tackle the current economic crisis. Others argued that Iraq needs to start a similar, parallel dialogue with Iran, given the importance of the bilateral relationship for Iraq’s stability and security.
Following the killing of General Qasem Soleimani in January, experts observed that while Iran is taking increasing stock of the situation in Iraq, Iraqis are aiming to minimize and manage tension on their own soil—just as they did in the period of 2015-2017, when both Iran and the U.S. supported Iraq in its fight against ISIS.
The discussants mentioned that the EU has historically engaged in “bandwagoning” with the U.S. when it comes to its approach toward Iraq. This has left the EU without a strong policy of its own. However, with the U.S. stepping out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)—the nuclear agreement between the EU/E3+3 and Iran—and its tensions with Iran rising, the EU is forced to revise and develop its own position towards Iraq and the MENA region as a whole. A priority in this respect, as mentioned in the briefing, is for the EU to understand its capabilities and strengths. The discussants pointed to several policy areas where the EU could best offer its assistance.
When it comes to Iraq’s relationship with its neighbors, the EU could provide diplomatic assistance by persuading external actors to refrain from interfering in Iraqi affairs. The EU could also play a role in defining norms for interaction and negotiations, since the region lacks its own mechanisms for dialogue and conflict resolution. Furthermore, the EU could offer diplomatic offices that support Iraq in serving as a contact point between states, rather than as a theater for proxy wars. This diplomatic support could provide the groundwork for Iraq to engage in win-win relations with its immediate neighborhood.
The speakers concluded the briefing by recommending that the EU develop a comprehensive security strategy that combines both the traditional security concept and a human security approach. The EU can begin to implement this strategy by focusing on “low-hanging fruits” projects in the trade, health and environment sectors.
About the Brussels MENA Briefings
The Brussels MENA Briefings are in-depth roundtable discussions on topics of current significance in the MENA region hosted by EWI and CARPO bimonthly, the first week of every second month. As in-person-briefings are impossible due to COVID-19, EWI and CARPO have temporarily turned this series into a monthly webinar. Please note that attendance is by invitation only.
Should you be interested in being considered for the invitation list, kindly send an email to Desirée Custers mentioning your name, affiliation and geographical or thematic area of interest and expertise in the Middle East.
Dates for upcoming Brussels MENA Briefings:
Tuesday, July 7, 2020: How to Rescue Sudan’s Transition Process
Tuesday, September 8, 2020: (topic tbd)
Event Reports from Previous Briefings:
The Status Quo of the Libyan Conflict: Is the Berlin Process Obsolete?
Post-Sultan Qaboos Oman: Transition Opportunities and Challenges
Hassan Joins NATO Mission Iraq Strategic Assessment Capability
Upon the request of the NATO’s principal military Headquarters (SHAPE), EWI's Vice President of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) program Kawa Hassan has joined the NATO Mission Iraq Strategic Assessment Capability (NMISAC) as of May 2020. This Independent Advisory Group supports the NATO Mission in Iraq (NMI). It aims to provide strategic, systematic, independent, evidence-based advice and insights to senior NATO Commanders to support existing assessments of the situation in Iraq and the region.
Hassan's previous accomplishments include: 1) serving as the lead-author of the SIPRI research report “Iraq, Climate-Related Security Risk Assessment,” which was used in the July 2018 UN Security Council debate on the nexus between climate change and security, brought forward under the Swedish Presidency of the Council; 2) serving as a member of the Atlantic Council’s Task Force Report on the Future of Iraq “Achieving Long Term Stability to Ensure the Defeat of ISIS;” and 3) co-leading the Working Group Rights & Protection of Minorities in the Middle East, Fondation Maison des sciences de l’homme (FMSH).
NATO Mission Iraq (NMI) is a non-combat training and advisory mission founded on partnership and inclusivity as well as on full respect for Iraq’s sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity. NMI’s advisory activities are conducted in Baghdad, including in the Iraqi Ministry of Defence, the Office of the National Security Advisor and relevant national security institutions. NMI training activities are carried out at the Iraqi military schools in the Baghdad area, Taji and Besmayah. NMI is a new iteration of a long-standing relationship between the Alliance and Iraq, providing expertise and best practice in security/defense sector reform, institution building and training and education from the entire Alliance and its partners from all over the world.
Pages
