Strategic Trust-Building

The stated goal of the United States in pushing for an anti-missile missile system in Poland and the Czech Republic is to protect Europe against nuclear attacks from Iran or other "rogue states." But a joint analysis by top U.S. and Russian scientists has concluded the system as proposed wouldn't be able to do that, The Washington Post reported Tuesday.

The EastWest Institute, an independent think tank based in Moscow, New York and Belgium, determined that no missile threat from Iran to Europe is imminent within the next five years because Tehran doesn't possess the technical prowess and won't for at least six to eight years.

EWI vice president Ortwin Hennig appearing on Euronews, discussed the strategic benefits and challenges of Turkey’s integration into the EU. Hennig emphasized the strategic importance of Turkish accession, but cautioned that Turkey still has many hurdles to overcome before it becomes an EU member state.

Tensions remain high after the launch, condemned by the West for its nuclear-arms ramifications. North Korea declares a success. Officials elsewhere say the rocket and satellite fell into the sea.

Reporting from Seoul -- South Korea and Japan scrambled to interpret the fallout from a North Korean rocket launch today that the regime said placed a satellite into orbit -- a claim contradicted by both Washington and Seoul.

National security officials met in separate meetings in Tokyo and Seoul, where anti-Pyongyang demonstrators clashed with police for the second time in three days, this time burning a missile replica and a photograph of North Korean leader Kim Jong Il.

EWI President and CEO John Edwin Mroz was interviewed by the China People's Daily on issues in international affairs.

The article ran on the heels of the Chinese Communist Party's 17th Congress, at which Chinese President Hu Jintao gave a report that mentioned the need for all countries to "uphold the purposes and principles of the United Nations Charter, observe international law and universally recognized norms of international relations, and promote democracy, harmony, collaboration and win-win solutions in international relations."
 
In the interview, Mr. Mroz makes the point that as the world develops at a faster pace and becomes increasingly complex, no one country or entity can undertake the responsibilities of managing today's global challenges alone. 

He notes that EWI is unusual among think tanks in that it is action-oriented and does not take a US-centric approach to resolving global problems.  EWI advocates a "P5-plus" model that revolves around the five permanent members of the UN Security Council and other important countries, that are brought in on relevant issues.

Mr. Mroz contends that world has reached a new "tipping point," wihch could tilt either in a positive or negative way, depending on the actions of the major powers.

The Russian-led Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) should prepare for possible instability as the economic outlook darkens, a counter-terrorism official said.

Andrei Novikov, head of the CIS Anti-Terrorism Centre, added that nowhere in the world was safe from dangers like suicide bombers but it was clear that economic development or the lack of it in places like Afghanistan affected regional stability.

The EWI paper US Policy on China: A Wishlist for the Obama Administration, drew the attention of the Chinese news agency Xinhua.

Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin struck a deal early today with the European Union on supervising the flow of natural gas through Ukraine, paving the way to restart shipments to fuel-starved European customers.

The price dispute that first drove Russia to cut off gas to Ukraine on New Year's Day had yet to be resolved, and there was no word on how soon gas deliveries to Europe would start up again. There was no immediate response from Ukraine.

A Cold War approach to nuclear weapons, based on huge stockpiles and enemies like the USSR that no longer pose an imminent threat to the US, is outdated and fails to adequately address the security threats facing the US and the world today.In stark contrast to Gates, UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon’s recent address to the East-West Institute recognizes how pursuing global disarmament is critical to achieving real security.

Regardless of who wins on November 4, a consistent, coherent voice to advance nuclear disarmament and global cooperative security based on the rule of law will remain necessary.

The Global Security Institute (GSI), along with many other civil society initiatives and governments, is advancing these goals on multiple fronts, in the US through the Bipartisan Security Group and internationally through the Middle Powers Initiative and the network of Parliamentarians for Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Disarmament.