Conflict Prevention

The virtual workshop assembled 13 speakers and over 60 participants to discuss key shifts in nuclear posture and technologies, as well as escalation dynamics originating both within and outside of South Asia. 

Click here to read the full event report on the SIPRI website.

The discussion, chaired by CRC's Dr. Ranj Alaaldin, will focus on the main challenges to stabilization and reconstruction, the future of democracy promotion in the region, reconciliation and peace-building and the role that international actors like the United States and Europe can play to constrain the fallout from conflicts and their second-order effects. 

Participants include EWI Vice President of the MENA Program Kawa Hassan, Frances Brown from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Jomana Qaddour from Atlantic Council and Emad Badi from the Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance.

Click here to learn more and register.

On November 10, the EastWest Institute (EWI), together with its partners at the German Chambers of Commerce in Algiers and Casablanca, held a webinar entitled “The Health and Care Industry: Challenges and Opportunities”— the fourth in a series of virtual meetings as part of EWI’s ongoing Algeria-Morocco Business Dialogue. The webinar brought together seven business leaders, three Algerian and four Moroccan, to take part in a cross-border business dialogue aiming to promote greater economic connectivity between the two countries in the healthcare sector. 

The Healthcare Sector

From an outside perspective, the respective healthcare industries in Algeria and Morocco present an attractive investment opportunity. As the two largest populations in the Maghreb region, both countries offer large markets with little competition. According to the latest figures of the Observatory of Economic Complexity (2018), Algeria’s pharmaceutical exports totaled just 6.4 million USD while it imported a whopping 1.77 billion USD. Although nowhere near as stark a difference, Morocco’s trade in pharmaceuticals is similarly heavily imbalanced towards imports with the country importing 662 million USD of products and exporting only 110 million USD. However, despite these vast opportunities for large players in the healthcare industry, the two countries offer completely different experiences in terms of breaking into the market. 

Despite 4.3 billion USD of public spending per year and serving as a unique example of universal healthcare in North Africa, the Algerian system is regularly described as defunct and distinctly lacking in proper medical equipment. A major underlying issue is the numerous bureaucratic, registration and international certification hurdles outside investors must navigate in order to get a foothold in the country. Nevertheless, despite these difficulties, Algeria is growing in relevance for large international private sector players as the government diversifies its economy, which many believe will lead to the inevitable opening of the country to international markets. Morocco, on the other hand, is often described as a much more open and friendly environment to do business, boasting a growing middle class and lower international certification requirements. 

The attractiveness of each country’s respective health care sector has yet to register with governmental officials on either side of the border. Only 1.2 million USD of Morocco’s total pharmaceutical exports made it across the border, accounting for just 0.068 percent of Algeria's total imports in this commodity. Unfortunately, these paltry figures are of little surprise within the context of Algeria-Moroccan trade relations given they echo the same story of missed opportunities across multiple sectors. 

Local Experience and Solutions

Webinar participants came from a variety of businesses across the healthcare sector. From representatives of medical and laboratory equipment manufacturers to pharmaceutical, cosmetic and food supplement producers, the participants represented a wide variety of interests across the entire scope of the industry. Yet, despite their distinct areas of focus, all participants shared frustration at their inability to conduct trade with their counterparts in the neighboring country. However, it was noted that this is certainly not due to a lack of trying. Representatives from businesses on both sides of the border confirmed their willingness to find partners and markets in Algeria and Morocco but testified to their experience of either running into bureaucratic difficulties, facing open discouragement, or in the case of one participant, discounting cross partnership as a viable option.

One of the more structural problems to bilateral trade in this sector is the lack of trust in the capacity and brand of the other country. This has been one of the overarching themes of the entire project to date, with participants across multiple sectors affirming that products from outside the region, such as Europe, are generally more trusted and better received than those originating from the region. The preference for European-made products discourages Algerian or Moroccan businesses from trying to enter the market across the border, since this general attitude among consumers makes it immensely difficult to market products effectively. 

Recommendations 

Made in Maghreb: To address the lack of confidence in locally made products, businesses in the region need to foster an environment where the local market is more forthcoming towards products emanating from the Maghreb. One possible solution could be joint business ventures with the stages of manufacturing taking place on either side of the border. In light of the COVID-19 pandemic, this idea also offers a means to reduce reliance on large supply chains from places like China.

Knowledge Platform: The German-Algerian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (AHK) has already launched an internet platform for Algerian and Tunisian businesses to share information and best practices, but this should be extended to Morocco. This platform would serve as a viable means for business leaders to establish partnerships with their counterparts and identify means to navigate bureaucratic obstacles on either side of the border. 

Joint Risk Management: To date, the COVID-19 pandemic has not ushered a fresh impetus in either capital to cooperate with their respective neighbor in overcoming shared issues; this is despite the fact both countries are two of the worst hit on the African continent. Businesses from multiple industries in both countries have lost markets as a result of the ongoing situation. Nevertheless, the pandemic offers an opportunity for companies to integrate different elements of their crisis management, so they may come out of the other side of future health crises in a healthier and more stable position. 

Training and scientific webinars: Given the economic complementarity between the two countries, knowledge and expertise exchanges offer an immediate and practical means for cooperation. In addition, considering the current lack of interaction between the business communities in Algeria and Morocco, developing education services offers a more viable starting point for the potential development of Maghrebi products in the future. 

Continue the process: Participants to the webinar attested to the importance of holding future meetings and continuing the current process. The lack of opportunities for Algerian and Moroccan business leaders to meet and discuss ideas only highlights the necessity for EWI to continue to establish channels of communication for future trade relations. Developing more sub-sector specific webinars offers a legitimate means to continue and build upon the achievements of the initiative. Regarding the healthcare sector, this could take the form of a series of webinars concerning the pharmaceutical or medical equipment manufacturing industries 

About the Algeria Morocco Business Dialogue

Despite its vast potential, the Maghreb region is often cited as being one of the least economically integrated regions in the world. The Algeria-Morocco Business Dialogue project seeks to bring together Algerian and Moroccan business leaders from multiple business sectors with the aim of overcoming obstacles to bilateral trade between the two neighbors.

The dialogues center on topics vital to successful entrepreneurship in Algeria and Morocco such as food security, agriculture, healthcare, the impact of digitalization and new technologies and energy—with a particular focus on how to attract quality investment, ensure environmental protection and empower businesswomen.

COVID-19 has unfortunately had a detrimental effect on the overall operation and schedule of the project. Each meeting was envisioned as a two-day conference such as the first event on the agricultural industry, which took place as a two-day delegation to Berlin to attend the city’s Green Week—one of the world’s largest international agriculture trade affairs. Nevertheless, EWI has moved the project online in order to maintain the good momentum of the project generated in Berlin. Although this means the discussions between participants are less interactive, they proved no less intensive nor productive as the following policy recommendations attest.

Click here to read a French translation of this event report. 

Click here to read an Arabic translation of this event report.

Links to Reports of Previous Briefings:

Cooperation in the Automobile Industry

Women’s Empowerment and Entrepreneurship: Challenges and Opportunities

The Agricultural and Food Manufacturing Sector

The meeting kicks off a year-long, Track 2 dialogue series, aimed at exploring avenues for military-to-military cooperation between the United States and Russia on urgent security and strategic issues.

American participants included General (ret.) George W. Casey, General (ret.) Curtis M. Scaparrotti and Ambassador Karl W. Eikenberry. Russian participants included Lieutenant General (ret.) Evgeny P. Buzhinsky, Colonel General (ret.) Viktor Yesin and Major General (ret.) Pavel Zolotarev.

As U.S.-Russia relations continue to deteriorate, the meeting afforded participants a timely opportunity to exchange perspectives on the major geopolitical obstacles hampering bilateral military-to-military cooperation, as well as assess issues of mutual concern and interest, including arms control, nuclear non-proliferation and emerging technologies.

Participants agreed that the current state of U.S.-Russia relations is characterized by tension, competition and higher levels of unpredictability and mistrust; however, as compared to the Cold War period, communication and interaction between both militaries is at an all-time low. Discussions underscored that this vacuum in communication poses significant risks, and there remains a greater need for dialogue between Russia and the United States in order to avoid miscalculation and misunderstanding, which can escalate into conflict. 

Co-moderated by Bruce McConnell, EWI president, and Vladimir Ivanov, director of EWI’s Russia program, the meeting also allowed participants to share their respective experiences working with American and Russian colleagues throughout their distinguished careers.

Future meetings of the U.S.-Russia Military-to-Military Dialogue will be organized for later this year and next year.

The dialogue was made possible by the generous support of Carnegie Corporation of New York.

The deadly blast that ripped through the Port of Beirut on August 4 provided a tragic reminder of Lebanon’s systemic problems: a deficit of good governance, widespread corruption and a politicized judiciary apathetic to any semblance of accountability. More than a month since the blast, as Amnesty International detailed in a recent statement, it is becoming increasingly clear that the Lebanese authorities “have no intention whatsoever of fulfilling their responsibilities of conducting an effective, transparent and impartial investigation.”

Calls for an international investigation are undoubtedly justified, given Lebanese distrust of state institutions. But from the onset, Lebanon’s President Michel Aoun—an ally of Hezbollah—has rejected any consideration of an international probe, claiming that the aim of an international inquiry would be “to miss the truth.” Aoun’s reason for his refusal is obvious: an international investigation would circumvent a judicial process that he and his allies control, and would risk exposing them to criminal negligence. President Aoun’s party, the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), and their allies, have played a central role in the appointment of judges, especially to the Higher Judicial Council (HJC)—a panel of 10 judges meant to ensure the proper functioning of the judiciary. In the investigation into the port blast, the HJC turned down two nominations of independently-minded judges to lead the probe before accepting the nomination of Fadi Sawan, a judge politically aligned with the FPM, Hezbollah, and their allies.

The politicization of Lebanon’s judiciary has repeatedly undermined its objectivity. For cases where political allies are suspect, investigations are perfunctory or non-existent. While the government’s reaction to the explosion is one example, myriad problems impacting the welfare of Lebanese citizens remain unpunished. For instance, subsidized medicine and flour are smuggled into Syria depriving the Lebanese of basic commodities. Exchange offices launder money and prop up a black-market currency exchange that undermines monetary policy. 

The Lebanese government’s reaction to the port explosion mirrored its response to the ongoing economic disaster: shifting blame and finding a scapegoat. A favorite tactic is to weaponize the judiciary by using FPM-connected judges to incriminate legitimate businesses. One example is the politically-motivated prosecution of ZR Energy, a relative newcomer to the local fuel market, which has historically been dominated by a handful of politically connected companies. In what has devolved into a wide-ranging scandal that has implicated the FPM and Hezbollah, ZR Energy was wrongfully investigated and charged in delivering defective fuel in an obvious attempt to distract from the Ministry of Energy and Water’s inability to address Lebanon’s longstanding power blackouts. Notably, the Ministry has long been controlled by the FPM and Hezbollah and has added an estimated 1.2-1.8 billion USD annually to the country’s budget deficit, while delivering little to no electricity. This latest case of scapegoating demonstrates that the judiciary is not only a mechanism used to hand out passes to businesses and officials that run afoul, but also has been weaponized to clear the playing field of business adversaries.

Lebanese leaders are now under international pressure to implement much-needed reforms to bring the country back from the brink of economic and political collapse. French President Emmanuel Macron provided a clear roadmap that, if followed, would unlock much needed aid. On September 8, the U.S. Department of the Treasury sanctioned two former ministers for providing “backdoor deals” and relying on Hezbollah for “personal gain and gains for their political allies ahead of the needs of the Lebanese people.” Two Hezbollah connected companies were also sanctioned on September 17. These sanctions send a strong message to the Lebanese ruling elite that they must take politics out of due process and form a government independent of the politicians who have bankrupted the country.

It is becoming clear that similar pressure will be needed to ensure that the Lebanese judiciary is provided with the necessary autonomy to pursue impartial investigations, rather than condemning the political opponents of the FPM and Hezbollah. Lebanon deserves, and the international community must demand, a truly independent investigation into the devastating Beirut port blast. The United States and the broader international community should prioritize bolstering accountability in the next cabinet as Lebanon picks up the pieces and recovers. Judicial accountability must extend not only to potentially negligent port authorities, but also to the political leaders who turned a deaf ear to warnings that tons of ammonium nitrate were being stored steps away from the heart of the city. Only then will the Lebanese people have a chance to rebuild their shattered city, tattered economy and restore their faith in government institutions.

Raymond Karam is the chief program and development officer at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington. He previously served as an Associate and the Washington, D.C. representative for the EastWest Institute where he led initiatives with partners in the Middle East on issues of regional security, nonproliferation, economic development and environmental governance.

The views expressed in this publication are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the EastWest Institute

Building on themes from EWI’s recently released report, Terrorism in Afghanistan: A Joint Threat Assessment, the roundtable brought together American and Russian policy and technical experts to exchange views on the many uncertainties and complexities surrounding the pending drawdown of American troops from Afghanistan and its likely ramifications for the stability and security of Afghanistan’s neighbors. 

As allegations of Russian bounties on U.S. soldiers have further aggravated bilateral tensions, and intensified violence in Afghanistan has cast doubts on the war-torn country’s prospects for peace, the roundtable provided a rare opportunity for candid dialogue on Russian and American concerns vis-à-vis ever-evolving security threats in Afghanistan and the prospects for continued bilateral cooperation in this arena.

Discussion focused on several possible outcomes of the U.S. troop withdrawal, including the resurgence of terrorist and militant actors in Afghanistan and increased Pakistan-India rivalry; the short- and long-term consequences for regional players, such as Pakistan, India and the Central Asian states; and the role of regional actors in ensuring the stability of Afghanistan following the United States’ departure. Participants also highlighted the obstacles facing the intra-Afghan peace talks and political reconciliation. 

EWI plans to host a second virtual roundtable later this summer focused on U.S.-Russia cooperation on economic development and connectivity in Afghanistan and the region.

The webinar hosted 150 attendees and 20 speakers, including Miroslav Lajcak, chief EU negotiator for the Belgrade-Pristina Dialogue; Mathew Palmer, State Department Special Envoy for the Balkans; Ambassador Wolfgang Ischinger; Dr. Michael Carpenter, managing director of the Penn Biden Center; Ambassador Cameron Munter; and many other experts and diplomats.

In a lively discussion, the speakers employed cautious optimism, exchanging views on the current status of the Kosovo-Serbia negotiations, as well as the troubling state of relations between the EU and the U.S. All participants argued that dialogue between Serbia and Kosovo has no alternative, and should resume as soon as possible under EU leadership, in partnership with the U.S. The panelists also unanimously agreed that the Euro-Atlantic partnership, being the key historical geopolitical alliance "which ended World War II," needs to be once again strengthened.

Following the event, multiple media reports and analyses appeared in print and electronic media across the Balkans. Numerous comments submitted to organizers after the event emphasized that continued efforts through the Balkan Dialogues will have a crucial role for the success of Serbia-Kosovo negotiations in the months to come.

The next session is slated to take place by the end of September, with several smaller discussions focused on individual elements of key importance for the sustainable agreement, organized in the meantime.

EastWest Institute has launched the Balkan Dialogues initiative in response to the urgent need for inclusive and open, high-level dialogue concerning pressing security challenges threatening the Western Balkans, aiming to increase and deepen understanding and build trust between representatives of the various geopolitical interests present in the region today. For more information on the initiative, please click here.

Media coverage from the event:

Радио Телевизија Србије (in Serbian)

Kosovo Online (in Serbian)

B92.net (in Serbian)

N1 TV (in Serbian)

A select delegation of leaders from the U.S. Democratic and Republican Parties and the global business community traveled to Beijing, China to meet with senior officials from the Communist Party of China (CPC) on November 18-21, 2019. The discussions were part of the 11th U.S.-China High-Level Political Party Leaders Dialogue organized by the EastWest Institute (EWI) in partnership with the International Department of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (IDCPC). 

Launched in 2010, the U.S.-China High-Level Political Party Leaders Dialogue seeks to build understanding and trust between political elites from the U.S. and China through candid exchanges of views on topics ranging from local governance to foreign policy concerns. The dialogue process consistently involves sitting officers from the CPC and the U.S. Democratic and Republican National Committees. 

In the 11th iteration of the dialogue, the CPC delegation was led by Song Tao, minister of IDCPC. Gary Locke, former secretary of the United States Department of Commerce, former governor for the state of Washington and former United States Ambassador of China; and Alphonso Jackson, former secretary of the United States Department of Housing and Urban Development; lead the U.S. Democratic and Republican delegations, respectively. Throughout the dialogue, members of both delegations spoke freely on relevant topics including foriegn policy trends, trade disputes and emerging areas of economic cooperation. 

EWI facilitated a series of meetings for the U.S. delegation, which included a productive meeting with Wang Qishan, vice president of the People’s Republic of China at the Great Hall of the People. The delegates also met with Yang Jiechi, director of the Office of the Central Commission for Foreign Affairs; Dai Bingguo, former state councilor of the People’s Republic of China; and Lu Kang, director of the Department of North American and Oceanian Affairs at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The U.S. delegates visited the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and met with their president, Jin Liqun, as well as the Schwarzman College at Tsinghua University to engage prominent scholars on the future of the U.S.-China relationship. 

Currently, we witness a volatile, polarized and destabilizing international security environment that has exposed us to the grey zones of war and peace. Security challenges arising from both hybrid threats and hybrid warfare (both multiple and synchronized threats that aim to target states’ vulnerabilities at different levels covering domains other than military) seem to have held front seat on the global security agenda thereby altering the relevance of nuclear deterrence. Deterrence is generally understood as an ability to dissuade a state from embarking upon a course of action prejudicial to one’s vital security interests, based on demonstrative capability. The nuclear deterrence theory, as propounded by Brodie (Brodie 1946, p. 76), which is grounded in political realism, enriches our thought process to comprehend the potential character of nuclear weapons. The focus of nuclear deterrence was on averting wars through the psychological manipulation of an adversary’s mind. Thus, it is argued that renewed warfare domains and non-military threats seems to have marginalized the relevance of deterrence theory. Therefore, new mechanisms are required to defend societies and build a correlation between deterrence and evolving wide-raging threats that are non-military in nature. It is further argued that a long-term holistic approach to deterrence as an instrument is needed that focuses on both current military and renewed non-military threats which cover political, economic, social and digital landscape.

Click here to read the full article on E-International Relations.