Politics and Governance

“In no other area of security are the rules undefined,” McConnell said, making the point that without agreed-upon guidelines, critical infrastructure systems across the globe are at stake and financial and political stability are continually threatened. Discussions continued on ways that EWI, with its unique history of building trust between nations, can help make significant progress in fighting cyber crime and avoiding global misunderstandings and tensions. The European delegation emphasized the U.S.-EU alliance and hopes for improved cyber cooperation despite recent strains.

Participants stated that one of the main roadblocks to significant progress is the gap between the rapid pace of technology and the slow pace of policy approvals. One reason is that lack of familiarity with rapid technological advances often overwhelms and confuses uninformed policymakers. All agreed that there must be a bridge between these two arenas and that dialogue is a key component.

Click here to view more photos from the event. 

Other panelists included Rolf Alter, director of Public Governance and Territorial Development Directorate at the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development; Hernando José Gómez, Colombian lead on U.S.- Colombia FTA Task Force; David Lorello, partner at Covington and Burlington; Elizabeth Morrissey, managing partner at Kleiman International; Scott Scherer, vice president at Boeing Capital Corporation; and David Torstensson, vice president at Pugatch Consilium. Patrick Kilbride, executive director of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and Americas Division and Coalition for the Rule of Law, moderated.  

The panel focused on how factors such as transparency, due process and predictability contribute to business investors’ confidence in government. Other topics discussed include the impact of weak or non-existent Rule of Law on economic growth and job creation, the assessment tools used by the business community to determine candidate markets, the regulations that guide corporate activities in a foreign marketplace, and case studies on how businesses can collaborate with other stakeholders to strengthen overall Rule of Law.

The lucrative panel discussion, as well as the broader business presence at the World Justice Forum, marked an important moment in the U.S. Chamber’s commitment to give business a voice in the broader Rule of Law dialogue. 

Click here to view the full participant list.

Click here to read updates from the Forum IV.  

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Nagorski was one of several panelists to discuss the “Freedom of Media and Security of Journalists,” an event organized by the Overseas Press Club (OPC) in conjunction with the Press Club Polska, with 60 people in attendance. During the panel, Nagorski—who had served as bureau chief for Newsweek in Warsaw, Moscow, Rome, Bonn and Berlin— contrasted the historical differences faced by journalists, from the Cold War to present times.

“It’s worth noting that, despite all the dangers today to freedom of the media and the huge problems we have with security for journalists, there are some positive trends,” Nagorski said.

“There’s no better example than the country we’re now in. I covered Poland in the 1980s, when I had to play cat-and-mouse games with the security services to interview someone like Zbigniew Bujak, the underground leader of Solidarity who was the country’s most wanted political fugitive. I was led by Solidarity contacts through back alleys, jumped in and out of cars, and went through all sorts of other drills to avoid being followed. Today, that’s hard to imagine. Political life is free and the media is free. And the country has taken off economically, banishing the chronic shortages and deprivation of the bygone era. As elsewhere, the media is facing plenty of competitive pressures, but no more so than everywhere else.”

Click here to read the full event write-up.

If the overthrow of President Mubarak by the mass of protestors in Tahrir Square in 2011 was a surprise, the ouster of President Morsi by even larger protests in Tahrir Square and across Egypt in recent days is equally dramatic.

Mubarak was in power for 30 years. The people, tired of his repressive and corrupt rule, wanted change. Morsi, in power for only a year, has alienated the people extraordinarily quickly, forcing a regime change.

Morsi, elected as President through a tortuous but reasonably credible democratic process, differed from the manner in which Mubarak assumed and retained power. Those young, social media activists who sought regime change in 2011 may not have intended power to be transferred to the Muslim Brotherhood (MB), with the Salafists in tow. But the MB being far more organized and embedded at the grass root level than the more liberal and secular forces responsible for expelling the Mubarak regime, won the election and acquired political legitimacy. Now they have been ousted by what is effectively a military coup.

BROTHERHOOD

This unforeseen development in a country that is the political and cultural heartland of the Arab world cautions against interpreting the nature of forces at play in the Arab world from narrow, self-serving political perspectives.

When political change occurred in Tunisia and Egypt through street protests against dictatorial regimes, it was pre-maturely hailed as the Arab Spring by the West. The Arab world, it was claimed, was moving towards democracy, refuting a widely-held view that Islam and democracy cannot cohabit.

The entry of MB into electoral politics was welcomed as a sign of maturing democratic impulses sweeping the Arab populace. Fine tuned analysis to disarm fears about the implications of this long-banned organization joining politics and aspiring for state power were offered. The MB comprised of various political currents, it was said, with moderates in the ascendant. “Political Islam”, which the MB represented, was seen as the only way that democracy could be ushered into the Arab world. Seen as a hostile force after the Iranian revolution, “political Islam” became a viable and acceptable instrument to promote America’s vocational attachment to the international spread of western style democracy.

Reservations about Morsi were held in abeyance, believing that he could successfully make the transition from military rule to democracy in Egypt. Morsi, in fact, made a fairly positive impression after assuming power, at least externally. He seemed intent on restoring Egypt’s political role in the region, reaching out to Iran, reducing the heavy weight of America on Egypt’s foreign policy, courting China, renewing relations with nonaligned friends of the past like India.

India received him in March this year, signalling our positive view of the political change in Egypt and acceptance of the moderate credentials of the MB. Surprisingly, we found common language on Syria as well as on terrorism in our joint declaration with him.

REVOLT

However, perceived inadequately in their acuteness by the outside world because of tailored international media coverage, serious tensions have apparently been brewing in Egypt because of Morsi government’s policies to islamicize Egyptian institutions and society through appointments and educational and cultural initiatives. With the failure to improve economic conditions, with poverty and unemployment rampant and sectarian strife targeting the Coptic community, public grievance against the Morsi government has been escalating.

Protests against Morsi's Policies - Talaat Harb Square

It did not seem, however, that matters had reached such a dangerous tipping point. Could such truly massive demonstrations that require huge resources, remarkable coordination skills and identifiable leadership occur spontaneously or erupt primarily through the use of social media, especially in an inadequately wired society? Individuals like El Baradei and Amr Moussa, with limited public following, have emerged as the political face of the popular revolt, which leaves many questions unanswered.

COUP

The U.S. seems to have been egging Morsi to bridge growing domestic political differences, with Secretary Kerry, during his March visit to Cairo, while pledging additional aid, calling for restoration of “unity, political stability and economic health to Egypt." Kerry spoke about the “deep concern about the political course of their country, the need to strengthen human rights protections, justice and the rule of law, and their fundamental anxiety about the economic future of Egypt" that political and business leaders conveyed to him. The U.S. Congress reacted sharply in June to the repression of NGO workers—Egyptian and American—assisting Egypt “as it moves down the path towards democracy, democratic training, the building of civil society, and the establishment of the rule of law.”

The Arab Spring has withered at its roots. The political judgment that MB had evolved into a moderate force has proved faulty. That “political Islam” could usher in democracy in the Islamic world has proved to be wrong. Ironically, opening the doors for more democracy in Egypt allowed conservative Islam to walk in and thwart the wishes of a large section of the population.

If the revolt against MB rule in Egypt will reverse the rising tide of conservative Islam in the Arab world on the strength of Gulf wealth and Turkish ambiguities, it would be a welcome development. The immediate prospects in Egypt are, however, bleak as a legitimately elected government has been ousted by the military and the erstwhile President confined. The West is refraining from describing this as a coup, which it is as the Constitution does not empower the Egyptian armed forces to be political arbiters in a crisis, however serious.

The Egyptian military, supposedly trusted by society, is now being castigated by MB activists, as is the U.S. So much for the Arab Spring and Egypt’s much-lauded experiment with democracy with Islamists in charge. The last word to be said may well be a bloody one! 

Click here to read this article in the Daily Mail. 

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“Natural resource issues are rising on the agenda of traditional security actors,” Ferenz said. Pointing to recent commentaries by members of the U.S. military and intelligence communities on resource shocks as drivers of economic and political crises as well as of regional tensions, she added: “The three issues where there are clear disagreements between China and the U.S. are maritime security, trade and Tibet. All three of those have underlying resource conflicts attached to them.”

Groff made several key points concerning the increased role water will have in human security, emphasizing what he called “a crisis around governance” and highlighting the role the private sector can play when appropriate policies and accountability frameworks are in place. He also noted the increased awareness of the complex challenges facing water governance.

“A lot of our institutions have begun to realize that you don’t just think about water in terms of scarcity or in isolation,” Groff said, noting that this will require intensive policy dialogue with governments. “With nexus kinds of things, it’s harder to do the math around it, and it’s harder to make the case for the math.”

Kőrösi stressed the importance of building networks of cooperation within nations and between nations. He also highlighted some of the operational challenges, noting that there must be an exponential increase in the number of water experts in much of the developing world in order to head off a global disaster.

Roundtable participants, representing diverse organizations, offered expert perspectives from their fields. Annette Huber-Lee, until recently the director of the Asia Center at the Stockholm Environment Institute, made the point that scientists have to emerge from their silos to address these cross-cutting challenges. “The scientists studying water must confer with those studying energy, as we all know their findings and studies influence each other,” Huber-Lee said.

Panel members also offered concrete examples of areas in which progress has been made. Groff said that within the past decade the ADB has integrated climate-resilience in its infrastructure investments while regional energy cooperation has made strides in Asia.

Others pointed out that the pace of change is often the fastest at the local level where choosing the right terms of engagement can have a big impact. According to Mandy Ikert, director of the Water and Adaptation Initiative of the C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group, cities are now more willing to work together to create an environment of global sharing. “In many cities it may not be politically favorable to talk about climate change, but you can re-brand it to things that make sense to them locally,” Ikert explained.

Her organization currently facilitates technology exchange between Beijing and New York City, as Beijing searches for a means to employ a zero-energy fresh water supply system.

“We have Beijing that is solely reliant on one remaining clear reservoir working now with New York to determine whether they can actually have-zero energy fresh water supply as New York does,” Ikert added. “There’s a lot of global sharing happening at the local level.”

View more photos from the event on our Flickr page. 

CHINA 

“Is Taiwan Part of the ‘Chinese Dream?’” Wall Street Journal, June 18, 2013.

Ever since President Xi Jinping made it clear that the “Chinese Dream” would be at the center of his 10-year term, the world has been scrambling to work out exactly what the “dream” is. “China’s dream won’t be realized until Taiwan, which was separated from the mainland when the losing side in a civil war fled there in 1949, [returns] back into the fold.”

“China’s Foreign Ministry sets up cyber security office.” Xinhuanet, June 14, 2013.

China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs has set up an office responsible mainly for diplomatic activities regarding cyber affairs. China believes that cyberspace needs neither fighting nor hegemony, but it does need regulations and cooperation.

RUSSIA

“G20 summits: Russia and Turkey react with fury to spying revelations.” The Guardian, June 17, 2013.

Mere days before the opening of the G8 summit in Northern Ireland, The Guardian released NSA documents showing that U.S. spies had intercepted communications between former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev and other top Russian officials during the 2009 G-20 summit in London, casting another shadow of mistrust on already troubled U.S.-Russia relations.

“U.S. and Russia sign pact to create communication link on cyber security.” Washington Post, June 17, 2013.

The U.S. and Russia agreed to open communication links on cybersecurity, including the refitting of a Cold War-era “hotline” to serve as a direct line of contact between the U.S. cybersecurity coordinator and his or her Russian counterpart. The agreement was announced Monday at the G8 summit.

WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION

“Why You Shouldn’t Get Too Excited About Rouhani.” The Atlantic, June 17, 2013.

The election of moderate candidate Hassan Rouhani to the Iranian presidency inspired hope that Iran may be headed in a more constructive direction, particularly with respect to its nuclear program. Mark Dubowitz of The Atlantic warns, however, that Rouhani is in fact a loyal devotee of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who holds ultimate sway in policymaking, and that his demonstrated approach to nuclear negotiation is more deceptive than conciliatory.

“Russia signals nuclear arms cuts will not come easy.” Reuters, June 19, 2013.

Speaking in Berlin this week, President Obama called on Russia to agree to further nuclear arms reduction agreements with the U.S. The appeal was met with a chilly reception in Russia, where Vladimir Putin expressed concerns over U.S. and NATO deployments of anti-missile shields and the development of high-precision non-nuclear weapons, which Russia fears may “disturb the strategic balance.”

Follow EWI on Twitter @EWInstitute and Facebook for continuing updates.

Compiled by Haolin Liu and Andi Zhou.

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's visit to Japan from May 27 to 30 was opportune, as the circumstances today are more propitious than ever for India and Japan to forge a solid strategic partnership. 

Japan's ties with China have frayed badly, with massive trade and investment ties between the two failing to shield Japan politically from aggressive Chinese territorial claims on Senkaku islands.

Even if the two countries manage to defuse the situation to avert the incalculable risks of an actual military brawl, China has lit a fire under the relationship that would be very difficult to douse.

To deal with the emerging Chinese threat, Japan has to develop a new mix of diplomatic and military tools. In addition to a defence cordon provided by its US alliance, it needs a diplomatic cordon comprising of select countries anxious about the unpredictable consequences of China's rise visible in its aggressive posturing in the South China and East China waters and its recent incursion into Ladakh. Japan's ties with India have thus become more relevant strategically.

Circumstances

Economic reasons too favour close India-Japan bonds. Japan is already heavily over-invested in China; China's politically motivated squeeze of Japan on rare-earth supplies carried a lesson. Rising India, with all its shortcomings, has the market, consumption potential, investment needs and manpower assets of interest to an ageing Japanese society and the Abeconomics-pushed revival of Japan's economy.

Prime Minister Abe lays stress on democracy as a source of security and has proposed in that perspective the concept of an Asian Security Diamond comprising of U.S., Japan, India and Australia.

Tactically, grouping select countries sharing similar political values to work together to promote regional security is a defensible approach, and China's protests, as an opaque, authoritarian state have no legs.

Japan's current political overtures towards India are unprecedented. Sensing this, the Chinese have tried to interfere with the developing momentum of Indo-Japanese partnership, with Premier Li Keqiang inserting his visit to India before that of our Prime Minister's Japan travel, and manipulating its results in rhetoric and substance to suit China's diplomatic strategy.

We went along with Li Keqiang to describe the India-China relationship as "an effective model of friendly co-existence between...neighbouring countries" and emphasised its "regional, global and strategic significance." We agreed to establish a Joint Study Group to develop a BCIM (Bangladesh, China, India, Myanmar) Economic Corridor. 

Enhanced bilateral cooperation on maritime security and cooperation in safeguarding sea-lanes and freedom of navigation was also endorsed, as well as the establishment of an open and inclusive security framework in the Asia-Pacific region. We even approved bilateral cooperation in civil nuclear energy.

In effect, by unduly projecting congruences with China, we distanced ourselves from key aspects of Japan's China concerns in advance of Manmohan Singh's visit to Japan. As we pragmatically separate our relations with China from those with Japan, we should avoid creating space for China to shoot at Japan from our shoulders, as Chinese commentators have done in lecturing Japanese politicians - described as "petty burglars" - on the edifying manner in which India and China managed to properly solve their border stand-off quickly.

Ties

The Prime Minister's visit highlighted several positive features of the India-Japan political, economic and security agenda in the years ahead. He was shown unusual regard, with the Japanese royal couple hosting a lunch for him and his wife and their visit to India getting announced for November/December this year. The two countries intend strengthening their Strategic and Global Partnership "taking into account changes in the strategic environment."

In addition to existing multifarious dialogues at the level of their Foreign and Defence Ministries, India and Japan have also launched a Maritime Affairs Dialogue in January this year. Importantly, India and Japan intend expanding defence ties, with regular and more frequent bilateral naval exercises planned following the first one in June 2012.

In this connection we should be less reticent about trilateral India-Japan-US naval exercises in the Indian Ocean. Japan is keen to sell its amphibian aircraft US-2 to India, which interests the Indian Navy. A Working Group will explore the modalities of its acquisition.

In the context of Japan's highly inhibited posture on external defence cooperation, such overtures need an encouraging Indian response to solidify other aspects of our bilateral ties. 

Partners

On South and East China Sea wrangles, we joined Japan in reiterating our commitment to the freedom of navigation and unimpeded commerce based on international law. On terrorism, the Japanese endorsed our preferred formulations. On the sensitive nuclear cooperation issue, the gain from the visit was Prime Minister Abe's recognition of India's sound nonproliferation record, Japan's commitment to work for India's membership of the four international export control regimes - the NSG, MTCR, the Australia Group and the Wassenaar Arrangement, and proposed acceleration of negotiations on the India-Japan civil nuclear agreement.

The visit provided an opportunity to emphasise the need to boost the current bilateral trade of $18 billion. India accounts for only 4 per cent of Japan's investment in Asia, though it has committed $4.5 billion for key Delhi-Mumbai industrial and rail freight corridors as part of developing our infrastructure, is eyeing the Mumbai-Ahmedabad high speed railway route, and could potentially participate in the Chennai-Bengaluru industrial corridor.

India is seeking Japanese investments in solar power generation and clean coal technologies.

The Prime Minister rightly called India and Japan natural and indispensable partners for mutual prosperity and a peaceful and stable future for the Asia-Pacific and Indian Ocean regions. 

Beyond words, we need clarity about our strategic choices in action. The China factor should not interfere with the strategic direction of our Japan relationship.

Click here to read the article in the Daily Mail.