Politics and Governance

SC Magazine Quotes Firestein on Chinese IT Regulations

In an article on Chinese IT regulations, SC Magazine featured comments by David Firestein, EWI vice president for strategic trust-building and Track 2 diplomacy.

The article covered the negative reaction among Chinese officials to a new bill that requires a strict approval process for American governmental purchases of Chinese software. 

This requirement, an element of the Consolidated and Further Continuing Appropriations Act of 2013, follows a recent uproar over reports of alleged Chinese cyber attacks on American computer systems. Chinese officials have expressed opposition to the change, calling it a "discriminatory" action.

Firestein explained that “it's no surprise that this rule has generated a lot of attention in China, but one shouldn't overstate what the law seeks to do," continuing "it puts in a quality control premise. It doesn't seek to ban, but to [implement] a vetting mechanism.”

Click to read the article at SC Magazine.

Challenges to Indian Foreign Policy

EWI Board Member Kanwal Sibal, former national security advisor of India, assesses India's recent difficulties abroad.

Some caveats are necessary before pronouncing on the UPA government’s foreign policy, especially the apparent mishandling of relations with Sri Lanka and the case of the Italian marines, as well as the setback in the Maldives. First, no country can have a foreign policy that is seen as being without fault by the public. This is particularly true of democracies where all kinds of opinions get expressed, political partisanship is normal as Opposition parties will always find some reason to contest government decisions, and the civil society has its own views on how policies should be framed on humanitarian and peacebuilding issues in particular.

Second, even countries more powerful than India, better governed, with wider internal debates and inputs from specialists, with greater sense of purpose and more aggressive in safeguarding national interest appear to make serious foreign policy mistakes or manifestly fail to achieve their objectives.

Third, it should not be assumed that big countries can have their way with small countries. The international system presents an obstacle as principles of sovereignty are involved and the reaction of competing powerful countries, in the region or outside, have to be factored into decision-making, especially if the smaller countries have a sensitive geopolitical location.

A further point needs to be made specifically with regard to India. Our foreign policy problems are numerous and complex. Pakistan has been a perennial problem ever since we became independent, confronting us with military challenges, religious extremism and terrorism. Our other neighbours, barring Bhutan, have played external powers against us as a balancing factor. China and Pakistan have boosted the capacity and the confidence of our neighbours to oppose us, and, until the major improvement of our relations with the U.S., the American card has come in handy too. It is not absent even today in the triangular India-U.S.-Pakistan diplomatic equation, with the situation in Afghanistan adding to its complexity.

The issues relating to the presence and treatment of Indian ethnic groups in neighbouring countries makes the management of relations with the latter more difficult. These issues spill over into domestic politics and cannot be treated solely as a foreign policy agenda. Our response to Islamic terrorism from Pakistan, which is essentially a foreign policy challenge, gets embroiled with the secular-communal debate in India as well as electoral considerations because a robust physical and legal response to local linkages of Pakistan-sponsored terrorism is seen as targeting our own Muslim population unfairly.

With all these caveats, our handling of the Sri Lanka issue at the recent UN Human Rights Council (UNHRC) at Geneva deserves to be seen as a particularly low point in our diplomacy. Sri Lanka has not been an easy partner to deal with; its discriminatory policies towards the Tamil population have been the source of tensions with India for long. If Sri Lanka had been wiser, it would have avoided creating a festering domestic ethnic situation that objectively impinged on India and was bound to provoke Indian interference and be a source of mistrust between the two countries. Sri Lanka has not, as a result, been sufficiently cognisant of our security concerns. It has exploited its geopolitical position and our adversarial relationship with China and Pakistan to carve out space for itself to frustrate us in many ways. It has played its cards ably by also cooperating with us in some areas and giving us enough stakes to blunt our responses to its provocations.

Sri Lanka’s failure to resolve ethnic issues after crushing the LTTE, the lack of progress on reconciliation and accountability issues, the reneging on implementing the 13th Amendment, the agitation of the issue of human rights violations of the civilian Tamil population in the final stages of military operations against the LTTE by the Sri Lankan diaspora, amplified by reports of Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International, all led to the stigmatisation of Sri Lanka on human rights issues in a U.S.-sponsored resolution at the UNHRC last year. India departed from its principled position not to back country-specific resolutions at Geneva by voting in favour of the resolution after working to dilute those parts of it that were too intrusive and disrespectful of Sri Lankan sovereignty.

Our positive vote then and this year was a mistake. India has itself been targeted for human rights violations in Jammu & Kashmir by the Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International without any allowance for its democracy, the independence of its judiciary, an alert press and the fact these organisations largely relied on exposures of abuses by Indian sources. The U.S. too has played its part to embarrass India in the past on human rights violations in Jammu & Kashmir in a bid to be even-handed towards Pakistan accused of abetting terrorist attacks against us. We have had to fight attempts by Pakistan to castigate us at the human rights forum at Geneva.

This time too, India worked initially to moderate the resolution on these counts. Having departed from its principled position last year, India could not vote against the resolution or abstain this year without a show of tangible progress by Sri Lanka on pending issues, including on the recommendations of the Lessons Learnt and Reconciliation Commission. What made our diplomacy almost farcical at Geneva was the bizarre attempt by India to work at the last minute to strengthen the very resolution that it had worked to soften earlier, not because any objective external policy factor had changed or the Sri Lankan government had committed a new breach of human rights or that India had not done its diplomatic homework earlier thoroughly enough and new factors had emerged to warrant a review of its earlier position. It was simply a case of internal threats to the UPA government form the DMK, the latter’s demagoguery on “genocide” in Sri Lanka four years after military operations in the island nation have ended that led to this last-minute scramble to appease an internal regional lobby at Geneva.

Worse for us, we got rebuffed by the US as it feared toughening the resolution may reduce the number of countries supporting it. We ended by looking bloody-minded and the US looking moderate. Such conduct erodes the credibility of our diplomacy abroad, besides raising fears at home that the government in New Delhi is losing grip over foreign policy under regional pressures. This has other longer-term implications — unless the primacy of New Delhi in foreign policy is restored — in that foreign countries and missions will start interacting at the regional level in terms of understanding the dynamics of Indian foreign policymaking and influencing it outside New Delhi.

The case of the Italian marines has lost its dramatic edge after their return to India. The Italians were escalating the issue by defying the Supreme Court and treating India with political disdain. The Supreme Court, in return, was escalating a bilateral issue with Italy into a multilateral one with the larger international community by interpreting the provisions of the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations (VCDR) on diplomatic immunity in a way that would uphold its dignity. The government was caught in a vice as it could not give precedence to its international obligations over the views of the highest court of the land. When the Italians protested against the court’s order restraining the Italian Ambassador from leaving the country, it took the plea that while it was aware of the provisions of the VCDR, it was bound by the court’s decision.

The problem might have been avoided in the first place if the government was not so accommodative towards the marines by opposing back-to-back furloughs to them in Italy on unconvincing grounds. The government also did not guide the Supreme Court properly on the issue of diplomatic immunity of the Ambassador and the unenforceable nature of his undertaking, which was political rather than legal in character. Of course, by disowning its word, Italy was guilty of a serious breach of faith. The government can take credit that its firmness compelled Italy to review its decision on the marines, and the Supreme Court even more so by its willingness to reinterpret the VCDR to suit the particular circumstances of the case.

The Italian government has shown political courage in reversing its decision despite potential backlash at home and deserves to be commended for acting sensibly and honourably at the end. It would be wise for India not to claim a diplomatic victory as escalation would have hurt the interests of both countries.

The defiance with which the Maldives have treated Indian interests in the commercial dispute with GMR over the airport contract and later the way the understanding reached with Indian emissaries over the arrest of former president Mohamed Nasheed was violated has provoked a debate on the conduct of the country’s foreign policy reflected in its inability to exercise sufficient weight in its periphery.

Since India looms large in our smaller neighbours and our representatives there get will-nilly involved in their domestic politics, we need to pay greater political attention to even the smallest of them and assign diplomats there with appropriate political skills. Beyond this, of course, we have to keep in mind that even powerful countries cannot easily bully neighbours — the U.S. has tasted the defiance of Venezuela and Cuba. We have also to contend with the China factor in our neighbourhood.

What is important, however, is the assessment countries make of India’s likely responses if its vital interests are undermined. If their experience tells them that India’s tolerance levels are very high and that they can get away with defiance, they will be prone to do so. But if the perception of India changes and it is seen as acting boldly to protect its interests, the inclination to defy India would be less. Our softness towards both China and Pakistan, despite provocations, gives an image of accommodation, prudence, undue caution, a disinclination to be provoked and a reluctance to make hard choices. There is a range of conduct between being aggressive and being pusillanimous. Our foreign policy has to show greater firmness, which has not been the hallmark of the UPA government or those before it.

Click here to read this piece at Tehelka.com.

This Week in News

This Week in News is the EastWest Institute's weekly roundup of international affairs articles relevant to its areas of work.

 

"What's Wrong with China's North Korea Policy?," Carnegie Endowment. Mar 26, 2013. 

"In China, Soviet Union's failure drives decisions on reform," The Washington Post. Mar 23, 2013.

"China's Xi tells Africa he seeks relationship of equals," Reuters. Mar 25, 2013. 

"China agencies press territorial claims in Asian waters," The LA Times. March 27, 2013. 

"Elite in China Face Austerity Under Xi's Rule," New York Times. March 27, 2013.

Follow EWI on Twitter @EWInstitute for continuing news updates.

Compiled by Michael McShane, Athina Doutis, Alex Schulman and Haolin Liu.

A Shift in the Sino-Russian Relationship?

On March 27, Dr. Marcel de Haas presented a new report on security relations between China and Russia at EWI’s Brussels center. Dr. de Haas is a Senior Research Associate at the Netherlands-based Clingendael Institute, which facilitated the event in cooperation with EWI.

There is, according to the paper, a “new order in the relationship between Moscow and Beijing, in which China is no longer the junior partner.”

Titled “Russian–Chinese Security Relations: Moscow’s Threat from the East?” the report reviews positive and negative aspects of the relationship. It also considers the role of Western nations in the future of Sino-Russian relations.

The paper, released in the wake of Xi Jinping’s recent visit to Russia (his first as China’s President), maintains that China’s rapid growth has shifted the nature of this bilateral relationship, which has largely been based on energy and arms transactions.

 “When China has reached enough independence from Russia in military technology and has created sufficient alternative ways of gaining energy,” it argues, “Beijing might well ‘dump’ Russia as a ‘strategic’ partner.”

That raises the possibility of a more positive relationship between Moscow and the West. De Haas maintains that recent Sino-Russian political cooperation was mostly due to opposition towards Western policies, not the result of a “genuine desire for country-to-country political cooperation.” Following China’s so-called “dumping,” Russia may find itself resorting to an alignment with Europe and the United States on security issues.

In attendance were 32 Brussels-based academics, NGO officials and diplomats. Representatives from Russia and China voiced objections to the report’s claims of a fracturing relationship, maintained that although Sino-Russian relations consist of different approaches and interests, China and Russia’s roles are complementary, not confrontational.

 

Has the Arab Spring been Beneficial for Women?

Writing for EWI's Parliamentarians Network for Conflict Prevention, network member Meg Munn, MP and Nicole Cleminshaw argue that, while the Arab Spring has been beneficial for women, more work lies ahead.

The Arab Spring began on 18th December 2010 when a young, jobless Tunisian graduate was selling vegetables from a cart. After his wares were consistently seized by the police, he set himself on fire in protest. This act sparked demonstrations and protests across Tunisia, which led to the toppling of the 23 year reign of Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. The wave of protest quickly spread across North Africa and the Middle East, with pro-democratic rebellions that toppled regimes and left many Arab citizens with increased civil rights.

Women were essential

Women were essential to helping maintain the movement. In Yemen, it was a young woman who first led demonstrations on her university campus against the long rule of Ali Abdullah Saleh. In Bahrain, women were some of the first to pour into Pearl Square in the capital city demanding change, often carrying their children with them. In Cairo, women were involved in arranging food deliveries, blankets and medical help which allowed a moment to turn into a movement.

Even in the more conservative regimes of the region women reacted against their leadership’s actions. Hundreds of Syrian women marched through the town of Beida to protest the detention of their men. When Yemini President Saleh announced that it was un-Islamic for men and women to march side by side in protest, thousands of women flooded the streets just to prove him wrong.

Women continue to support the demonstrations by working as nurses in makeshift hospitals, cooking food for protesters, and giving speeches and singing songs at demonstrations. Their support has been vital in sustaining the Arab Spring. However, the movement itself does not rest upon gender equality. Women of all countries involved agree on that. It is about regime change to bring freedoms to people of genders, all religions and race.

Above all, it is about the freedom to express oneself. In addition to the right to freedom psychologically, socially, and economically, the demonstrators call for the ability to speak their minds and simply be themselves.

Even though the movement is about the rights of everyone, women make up a substantial proportion of the Arab Spring countries. In Tunisia, for example, it was the grievances of the young, well educated and unemployed people that sparked the revolution. Two-thirds of that population is made up of Tunisian women.

Women in Arab nations like men face problems in terms of lack of opportunities and employment options. But it is worse because while more and more Muslim women are attending university, they have even fewer opportunities than their male colleagues to speak or to secure a job. It is only natural then for them to question the nature of the system in their country. This frustration can be seen by the level of support women have contributed to the movement.

Will only men benefit?

The question remains as to whether the Arab Spring has benefited women. After all their hard work and support, many women fear that only the men will gain the freedoms for which both genders fought. Many women report that while the men were happy for the women’s support during the revolution, some men feel that now it’s time for women to go back home to their “normal lives.” It is alarming that women’s efforts are at risk of being unrewarded and that men who welcomed their support on the street may not welcome their presence in business or government.

Additionally, rape and sexual assault are being used as weapons against women. Assault and harassment were problems before the revolutions, but heightened levels of such violence has led many to believe that they are being used as a way to silence women and keep them indoors. Ultra-conservative Islamists have blamed women who are sexually assaulted at demonstrations by saying the harassment was their fault for mixing inappropriately with men.

There have also been high profile accounts of female journalists being attacked and sexually assaulted during protests. These stories include that of Natasha Smith, a young British journalism student who went to Egypt to cover women’s rights for her final project. She was separated from her two male companions by dozens of frenzied men who dragged her across the ground as they ripped off her skirt, undergarments, shoes and shirt. She was ultimately saved from the continued assault by a different group of Egyptian men.

Cases like these are appalling in and of themselves, however what is even more shocking is that law enforcement has been unwilling to challenge this wave of sexual violence. Indeed, when law suits have been filed against perpetrators of sexual assault the victims themselves have been targeted. A lawyer from Benghazi named Iman Al-Obaidi told journalists that she was raped by security forces in March 2011; she was then accused of defamation against the Qadaffi government. She was subsequently arrested by security police, forced into a car, and detained for several days.

The detentions have often brought sexual discomfort. In 2011, Samira Ibrahim and Maha Mohamed brought a case to the Egyptian courts challenging the legality of forced virginity tests of female protesters. In the face of increased sexual violence towards women, both Samira and Maha won their cases.

Driven into traditional roles?

Despite Samira and Maha’s landmark cases, women express their concern of being driven into more traditional roles due to increasing violence and the militarisation of the economy. At the same time, many of the Arab Spring nations have been experiencing the rise of “political Islam.” These are Islamic parties such as Egypt’s Freedom and Justice Party or Tunisia’s formerly outlawed Islamic Ennanhda party. Ennanhda has since dropped the Islamic portion of its name but its core values remain the same. Both of these parties recently secured over 40% of the available seats in their respective countries.

The rise of these Islamic parties has multiple causes. In addition to the religious backing they have, under previous regimes Islamic organisations have been able to provide charities, social services, jobs and business opportunities to the population establishing a network of support across the country.

However, it is not only male conservatives that support the Islamic parties. While proportionally more men indicated in a 2012 Gallup poll that they think Sharia should be the only source of law, proportionally more women indicated that it should be a source, but not the source.

Nevertheless, the effects of the increase in Islamic party power have had a disproportionate effect on women. Salafist students, who support a strict interpretation of Islam, have called for gender separation in their courses and for women to be fully covered when attending university. Worryingly, the second demand has met little resistance from university administrators.

Once considered the most liberal of the Middle Eastern countries, Tunisia has seen a sharp rise in the number of women wearing veils. All the while, campaigns promote Islamic parties as a platform for change even though some of these groups look to implement a purist interpretation of Islam that would call for secular laws to be rolled back. And with the rise of these parties, in some instances women have less representation in government than before the revolutions.

Women’s representation in government

Many of the newer Arab democracies have employed electoral quota laws to try and increase women’s representation in government. The effectiveness of quota systems is however under debate.

Tunisia, for example, has implemented a “zipping” system where every other candidate on an electoral list must be female. Egypt issued a decree abolishing a quota requiring 64 of 518 seats be filled by women and instead requires all electoral lists to include at least one women. There are concerns with both systems. In Egypt, few women are nominated and are often placed at the bottom of the list. Women in Tunisia fear that the regulations won’t be enforced if officials claim that there aren’t enough qualified women to run. This, they assert, is a farce because even in the most rural regions there are female doctors, lawyers, and teachers.

The performance of electoral lists seems to be disappointing as only 2 women are currently in cabinet positions in Egypt, Tunisia, and Libya, all countries that maintain quotas. Yet are these results better than not having a provision at all? In Tunisia 4 of 6 constitutional draft committees were headed by women but in Egypt, the number of women parliamentarians has dropped from 12% to 2%. The international average is around 21%.

Gaining a sense of empowerment

However, despite the hardships women have endured as a result of the Arab Spring, there have been distinct benefits as well. Women activists in Arab Spring countries most notably point to the sense of empowerment that women have found by fighting for their rights. The experience they have obtained pushing for collective, national goals has been invaluable. They cannot be legislated away or removed from an individual’s memory. This experience of coming together to be agents of positive change has become a seed that will grow into greater demands for women’s rights. Women have learned that they have to fight for their freedoms and that these freedoms are worth fighting for.

In fact, this mobilization is working. Last November, the Egyptian government dropped the controversial Article 68 which had affirmed the government’s commitment to gender equality as long as it didn’t interfere with the rulings of Sharia. Now, there will be equality for all citizens, regardless of gender, race, or religion. Similarly in Tunisia, the draft constitution guarantees non-discrimination on any grounds, including gender.

However, there is still work to be done and that work is being done by very dedicated women in the Arab Spring nations. Protests continue over the implementation of Tunisia’s Article 28 which describes women’s roles in the family as “complementary” to those of men’s. After women’s positive experience mobilising for their rights, women will not accept the definition of their roles in relation to those of a man. Women must be defined in their own right.

Furthermore, mobilization has continued at the grassroots level. Anti-harassment backlash in Egypt has been undertaken in a variety of forms. In addition to self-defence courses, there have been marches in Cairo against sexual harassment. These women are responding to ultra- conservative Islamists who say women invite sexual assault by attending anti-government demonstrations where they mix with men. As recently as early February, an Egyptian lawmaker remarked that women are sometimes fully responsible for rape because they put themselves into that situation. In response, women brandish knives at the rallies and threaten to cut off the hands of attackers.

However, there are also creative reactions that don’t respond to violence with violence. An app called Harassmap now sends text alerts to women regarding “danger zones” where harassment or assaults have been reported.

There has also been a push to make sure that all voices, including women, are being included in the conversations about constitutions, law, and the role of religion. In Tunisia, Amira Yahyaoui founded Al Bawsla, an organisation that helps people understand the role politics plays in their lives and how to work together to protect their rights. Likewise, as in Tunisia, Alaa Murabit is publishing a Libyan Women’s Charter that has been produced in consultation with women across Libya. It will lay out the specific needs and demands of Libyan women which will then be used to influence the writing of the new constitution.

Ultimately, the women of the Arab Spring nations have faced hardship. They have endured continuing sexual abuse and have fought to maintain their rights in the face of powerful conservative Islamic parties. Despite these difficulties, the Arab Spring has provided an opportunity for women to participate politically by toppling regimes and to fight for the issues that affect them. While, the quantifiable results of this fight have been disappointing thus far, it is up to the women of these nations to push against traditionalist forces that look to diminish their rights. The revolution won’t truly be over until there are rights for everyone, not just the men of the Arab Spring nations.

Haifa Al Kaylani Named Among the 100 Most Powerful Arab Women

On the occasion of International Women's Day, Haifa Al Kaylani, EWI board member and chairman of the Arab International Women's Forum, has been recognized as one of the hundred most powerful women in the Arab World.

The "Power 100 list," which was published by Arabia Monitor, recognizes the world’s 100 most influential Arab women in business, science, media, entertainment, arts and sports.

Noting that she holds "senior roles in several organisations in the UK and internationally as well as seats on the boards of cultural and educational institutions and NGOs," the ranking affirmed that "her influence is widely accepted."

In a recent interview, Al Kaylani noted that "empowering Arab youth and supporting the role of Arab women leaders is the utmost priority if we are to achieve true and lasting peace and prosperity in the Arab world."

This is the third consecutive year that Al Kaylani's leadership has been recognized by this Arabia Monitor.

Click here to read the 100 Most Powerful Arab Women feature at ArabianBusiness.com.

 

This Week in News

This Week in News is the EastWest Institute's weekly roundup of international affairs articles relevant to its areas of work.

 “Russian Judge Delays Trial of Dead Lawyer,” New York Times, March 11,2013.

Two-Thirds of Russians Support Banning Foreign Adoptions – Poll Interfax – Moscow, March 11, 2013 

U.S. Demands China Block Cyberattacks and Agree to Rules” The New York Times. Mar 11, 2013. 

China offers to discuss cyber security with US” Reuters. Mar 12, 2013.

"Guns and Butter: How to Prevent a Nuclear Arms Race in Asia" Albert B. Wolf, World Policy Blog. March 13, 2013

China’s Xi Jinping charts a new PR course” The Washington Post. March 13, 2013.

China’s New Leader Takes Full Power in Delicate Balancing Act,” The New York Times. March 14, 2013. 

 

Follow EWI on Twitter @EWInstitute for continuing news updates.

Compiled by Michael McShane, Athina Doutis, Alex Schulman and Haolin Liu.

 

Ambassador Yousef Al Otaiba Honored by World Affairs Council

EWI board member and UAE ambassador to the U.S. Yousef Al Otaiba was honored by the World Affairs Council yesterday for his contributions to the development of the US-UAE relationship.

Otaiba and his diplomatic corps, who have drawn attention for their international aid efforts, were presented with the Distinguished Diplomatic Service Award at the World Affairs Council-Washington, D.C.'s annual gala.

"My team and I have worked very hard to build new relationships," said Otaiba, explaining that they have travelled "throughout the country to share the story of the deep ties that bind our two countries."

The embassy's significant aid to Joplin, Missouri following a devastating tornado and pledges to New York and New Jersey in the wake of Hurricane Sandy were cited as major factors in determining the recipient of the award.

Click here to read full coverage of the award presentation at The National.

This Week in News

This Week in News is the EastWest Institute's weekly roundup of international affairs articles relevant to its areas of work. 

China, the Abnormal Power,” by Yukon Huang. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. March 5.

"A Russian 'Frenemy'," by Leon Aron. Los Angeles Times. March 5.

"Obama's Nuclear Future: The Battle to Reduce the U.S. Nuclear Stockpile Begins," Foreign Affairs, March 6.

China navy seeks to 'wear out' Japanese ships in disputed waters,” Reuters. March 6.

"Holder says Obama plans to explain drone policy," The Washington Post. March 6.

North Korea Warns of Pre-emptive Nuclear Attack,” The New York Times. March 7.

"U.N. Security Council approves new sanctions against North Korea," The Washington Post. March 7.

Follow EWI on Twitter @EWInstitute for continuing news updates.

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