Key Developments

• Crimean voters overwhelming chose to secede from Ukraine in the March 16 referendum, and the Crimean parliament accordingly has declared independence and formally applied to join the Russian Federation.

• The announced results reported that 97% of voters supported becoming part of Russia.  As the poll was boycotted by the Crimean Tatars and many ethnic Ukrainians (roughly 13% and 25% of the Crimean population, respectively), the officially reported turnout of 83% of the population seems incongruous.

• On Saturday, March 15, Russia vetoed a UN Security Council resolution that would have declared the Crimean referendum illegal.  Aside from China’s abstention, all the other members of the Security Council voted in favor of the resolution.

• Following Sunday’s referendum, Ukraine has mobilized 40,000 of its reservists and diverted $680 million from its cash-strapped budget to improve military readiness.

• Russia has deployed thousands of soldiers to the Ukrainian border for a series of military exercises to take place over the next two weeks.

• A truce between Ukrainian and Russian troops has been negotiated in the Crimea.  The truce, which will last through March 21, permits the Ukrainian military to resupply their surrounded bases and reduces the possibility of an immediate confrontation.

• According to a statement released on Sunday by the Russian Foreign Ministry, over the course of two phone conversations on Saturday and Sunday, Kerry and Lavrov have agreed to seek Ukrainian constitutional reforms to resolve the crisis.  The U.S. has not confirmed the statement.

• President Obama spoke with President Putin of Russia on Sunday, reiterating continued American opposition to the referendum as a violation of the Ukrainian constitution and sovereignty.  Obama went on to press Putin on the need for the de-escalation and a diplomatic resolution to the crisis.

• After condemning the referendum, both the U.S. and the EU have imposed sanctions, including travel bans and assets freezes, on Russian and Ukrainian leaders over Crimea’s move to join Russia.  Both the U.S. and the EU have warned that further sanctions may be imposed if the crisis remains unresolved.

• President Obama has issued an executive order targeting 11 individuals – seven Russians and four Ukrainians – including Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin, Crimean Prime Minister Sergey Aksyonov, former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich, Putin aides, Vladislav Surkov and Sergei Glazyev, Valentina Matviyenko, the head of the upper house of the Russian parliament, and Vladimir Konstantinov, the head of the Crimean parliament.  The executive order goes on to label Aksyonov and Konstantinov as separatists.

• The EU has announced sanctions targeting 21 individuals – thirteen Russians and eight Crimeans.  The names of these individuals were not immediately publicized, but do not include senior Russian leaders.

• In the largest demonstrations in nearly two years, as many as 50,000 protesters took part in a rally in Moscow to oppose the government’s intervention in Ukraine.

• Dmitry Kiselyov, the head of Rossiya Segodnya (Russia Today), the official Russian government owned news agency, and the host of a popular Russian Sunday television show has stirred Cold War fears by noting on the air that Russia is capable of turning the U.S. into radioactive dust.

• Several public NATO websites have been the targets of cyber-attacks purportedly perpetrated by pro-Russian hackers.

Government Statements

The White House, Fact Sheet: Ukraine-Related Sanctions,” March 17, 2014

The White House, Readout of the President’s Call with President Putin,” March 16, 2014

Jay Carney, “Statement by the Press Secretary on Ukraine,” The White House, March 16, 2014

Analytical Pieces

Dmitri Trenin, “Crimea’s Choice,” The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace – Eurasia Outlook, March 17, 2014

Sergei Aleksashenko, “The Day After: Is It Technically Difficult to Annex Crimea?,” The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace – Eurasia Outlook, March 17, 2014

Mike Callaghan, “Is the IMF a political football in the Ukraine crisis?,” The Interpreter, March 17, 2014

Council on Foreign Relations, Interview of John B. Bellinger III: Why the Crimean Referendum is Illegitimate,” March 16, 2014

Paul Pillar, “Ukraine and the Zero-Sum Impulse,” The National Interest, March 16, 2014

Thomas L. Friedman, “The Three Faces of President Obama,” The New York Times, March 16, 2014

Graham Allison, “A ‘Belgian Solution’ for Ukraine?,” The National Interest, March 15, 2014

Colum Lynch, “Russia Vetoes Last-Ditch U.N. Effort to Prevent Crimea Annexation,” The Cable- Foreign Policy, March 15, 2014

Andrew S. Bowen, “Chicken Kiev: Will Russia risk an all-out invasion of Ukraine?,” Foreign Policy, March 15, 2014

Peter Liberman and Julie A. George, “Will Conquest Pay?: In Crimea, Russia Might Come Out Ahead,” Foreign Affairs, March 14, 2014

John McCain, “Obama Has Made America Look Weak,” The New York Times, March 14, 2014

Taras Kuzio, “Farewell, Crimea: Why Ukrainians Don’t Mind Losing the Territory to Russia,” Foreign Affairs, March 13, 2014

Fareed Zakaria, “Why (this time) Obama Must Lead,” The Washington Post, March 13, 2014
 

Key Developments

• US Secretary of State John Kerry met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in London on Friday for six hours. Lavrov stated that Russia will "respect the will of the people of Crimea.” After the meeting, Lavrov called the talks “constructive” but stated that Russia and the U.S. did “not have a common vision” on the situation in Ukraine.
   
• Hundreds of pro-Russian and Kiev supporters clashed last night in the east Ukraine city of Donetsk in the worst display of violence since Ukraine President Viktor Yanukovych was ousted on  February 22. One person died in the violence, and several people were injured.
   
• On Friday morning, trucks, troops and at least one armored personnel carrier (APC) were unloaded from a Russian warship, the Yamal 156, at Kazachaya Bay near Sevastopol in Crimea. The large landing ship can carry more than 300 troops and up to a dozen APCs.
   
• Senior U.S. officials report that Ukraine's interim government has appealed to the U.S. for military aid, including arms, ammunition and intelligence support. Wary of aggravating tensions with Russia, the Obama administration has agreed to send only military rations at this time.
   
• Russia's ambassador to the United Nations, Vitaly Churkin, told an emergency meeting of the Security Council that Moscow "does not want war" with Ukraine, as a direct response to a question posed by Ukraine's interim Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk.
   
• A draft resolution has been circulated in the UN Security Council concerning the referendum in Crimea, planned for Sunday. Sponsored by the U.S., the resolution would declare the referendum illegal. According to council diplomats, Russia has pledged to veto the resolution.
   
• The U.S. aid package to Ukraine stalled in the Senate on Thursday because of Republican opposition to the bill. In addition to opposing the IMF reforms tied to the aid package, some opponents, such as  Senator Rand Paul (KY), also stated that the aid would indirectly benefit Russia because of the billions of dollars of debt Ukraine owes Russia. Some Republicans, however, support the bill, with Senator John McCain (AZ) harshly criticizing those in his party for their opposition to the proposed legislation. The bill will be taken up again when Congress reconvenes on March 24.
   
• Eight U.S. Senators, led by Senator John McCain (R-AZ), will travel to Ukraine this weekend to meet with the interim government.
   
• Leonid Kravchuk, Ukraine's first president (1991-1994), earlier this month denounced Russia's invasion of Ukraine, stating that Russia has violated the Budapest Memorandum and that “Ukraine has every reason to go to international arbitration." Kravchuk vowed that he and every Ukrainian citizen would take up arms to fight for their homeland against Russian aggression.

Government Statements

Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk addressed the UN Security Council on March 13 at its sixth urgent meeting on the crisis in Ukraine

Press Briefing by U.S. Press Secretary Jay Carney, 3/13/2014

Analytical Pieces

The Editorial Board, “Fixing Ukraine’s Economy,” The New York Times, March 13, 2014. 

Wei Zongyou, “Ukraine Crisis: Can China Be More Helpful?,” The Diplomat, March 14, 2014.

Jamila Trindle, “Cutting off your Nose,” Foreign Policy, March 13, 2014. 

Alexander Motyl, “Why Ukraine Should Risk it All,” Foreign Policy, March 14, 2014. 

Susan B. Glasser, “Putin on the Couch,” Politico, March 14, 2014.

Robert Kahn, “Sanctions: What’s Next?,” Council on Foreign Relations, March 13, 2014.

John J. Mearsheimer, “Getting Ukraine Wrong,” The New York Times, March 13, 2014. 

Video

Ukraine's PM appeals to U.N. over Crimea (1:43)

Key Developments

• In a phone call on March 12, Didier Burkhalter, Swiss Foreign Minister and OSCE Chairperson-in-Office, urged Russian President Vladimir Putin to cooperate with the OSCE in sending observers to Crimea and called for a long-term perspective of Ukraine’s territorial integrity. The conversation between the two also focused on the possibility and conditions needed to establish an “international contact group” on the current Ukrainian crisis.
   
• 1,500 Russian paratroops have landed in the Rostov region of Russia that borders Ukraine to conduct military exercises, according to the Russian Defense Ministry. Troops will also be assembled in Belgorod and Kursk near Russia’s Ukrainian border.
   
• Interim Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk held a Q&A at the Atlantic Council on March 12 after his talks with President Obama and will hold an open meeting with the UN Security Council today in New York City.
   
• In joint remarks delivered following a private meeting between President Obama and Interim Ukrainian Prime Minister Yatsenyuk, Obama declared that “the most pressing challenge that Ukraine faces at the moment …is the threat to its territorial integrity and its sovereignty.” Obama also declared that the U.S. sees Russia’s actions in Crimea to be against international law. Yatsenyuk stated that the Ukrainian government is willing to consider bilateral talks with Russia but will not surrender its freedom or right to its territorial integrity.
     
• The Ukrainian Parliament has adopted a bill creating a Ukrainian National Guard comprising 60,000 troops. The force’s duty is to counteract “military aggression against Ukraine and liquidation of a military conflict by conducting military operations and fulfilling the tasks of territorial defense.” 
   
• The Senate Foreign Relations Committee voted 14-3 in support of a bill that includes a $1 billion loan guarantee to Ukraine. The bill now goes to the full Senate for a vote. If it passes, it would then go to the House of Representatives for approval before becoming law. However, a passage of the bill could be delayed, as several Republicans, including Representative Buck McKeon (R-CA), chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, have already expressed opposition to the bill because of its linkage with broader IMF reforms. 

Government Statements

The White House Office of the Press Secretary, remarks by President Obama and Ukraine Prime Minister Yatsenyuk after their Bilateral Meeting – March 12, 2014

Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine Statement on National Guards – March 13, 2014

OSCE – A briefing will be held in Vienna to discuss a recent visit to Ukraine – March 13, 2014

Analytical Pieces

Thomas De Waal, “Toward a Scottish Solution for Crimea,” The Wall Street Journal, March 11, 2014

Wojciech Konończuk, “Russia’s Real Aims in Crimea,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, March 13, 2014 

Geoff Dyer, “In the Battle for Crimea, China Wins: How Beijing stands to gain from Russia's invasion of Ukraine,” Foreign Policy, March 13, 2014

Daniel F. Runde, and Conor M. Savoy “Providing Aid to Ukraine is in the National Interest,” Center for Strategic and International Studies, March 12, 2014

Meghan L. O'Sullivan, “A Better Energy Weapon to Stop Putin,” Bloomberg View, March 11, 2014

Key Developments

• World leaders have issued statements condemning the upcoming Crimean referendum.
   
  • In a joint statement, the leaders of the G-7, the President of the Council of Europe and the President of the European Commission have condemned Russia’s actions in Crimea as a violation of the Ukrainian Constitution and international law, including the UN Charter.  In the statement, the leaders also called on Russia to stop the Crimean referendum and declared that they would not recognize the results due to the “lack of adequate preparations and the intimidating presence of Russian troops.”  The statement went on to call on Russia to utilize diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict under the auspices of the UN or the Organization for Security and Co-Operation in Europe (OSCE).
     
  • The OSCE Chair has declared the Crimean referendum illegitimate as it is not in keeping with the Ukrainian Constitution and international law.
     
  • The leader of Crimean Tatars, Refat Chubarov, believes that Russia will rig the referendum and has called for a boycott.
     
  • Ukrainian leaders have appealed for financial assistance, revealing that the Ukrainian treasury has less than $500,000 and needs $4 billion to prevent a default on its debts.  An IMF team is currently in Kiev assessing and finalizing Ukraine’s financial needs.
     
• The EU has finalized a seven-page document setting sanctions against Russia, including travel bans and asset freezes.  The measures, targeted at individuals who have undermined and threatened Ukrainian sovereignty, are being coordinated with the U.S., Canada, Switzerland, Turkey and Japan.  In their meeting next Monday, EU foreign ministers are expected to approve the measures.
   
• Acting on a request from Ukraine, the OSCE has called on its member states to provide unarmed observers to deploy to eastern and southern Ukraine.  So far, twenty-five states have responded positively to the request.  An earlier OSCE observer mission to the Crimea was halted by checkpoints setup along Crimea’s border.
   
• Mustafa Jemilev, a representative of Crimean Tatars, is in Moscow this week on the invitation of Russian leaders.  This invitation is seen as a part of a charm offensive by Russia to win the support of Tatars for the Crimean referendum.
   
• Interim Ukrainian Prime Minister Yatsenyuk is to meet with Obama today at the White House.
   
• Ukraine’s media regulator has ordered the country’s cable providers to stop transmitting Russian language television.

Government Statements

Statement of G-7 Leaders on Ukraine – March 12, 2014:

White House version

Council of Europe version

OSCE Chair says Crimean referendum is illegal in current form – March 11, 2014

OSCE – Ukraine requests continuation of visit by unarmed personnel – March 11, 2014

Analytical Pieces

Dimitri K. Simes and Paul J. Saunders, “And the Winner in Ukraine Is … China,” The National Interest, March 12, 2014

Rajan Menon, “A Ten-Point Plan for Ukraine,” The National Interest, March 12, 2014

Nikolas K. Gvosdev, “How Putin Can Use Crimea,” The National Interest, March 12, 2014

Ted Galen Carpenter, “Ukraine Should Have Kept Its Nukes,” The National Interest, March 12, 2014

Harry Kazianis, “5 Ways Russia’s Ukraine ‘Boomerang’ Could Strike Asia,” The Diplomat, March 12, 2014

Brenda Shaffer, “Pipeline Problems: Ukraine Isn’t Europe’s Biggest Energy Risk,” Foreign Affairs, March 11, 2014

Jeffrey Tayler, “Sorry, Putin Isn’t Crazy,” Foreign Policy, March 11, 2014

Key Developments

• The Crimean regional assembly has been threatened with dissolution by the Ukrainian parliament upon a failure to cancel the planned March 16 referendum.  Crimean lawmakers, in the meantime, have adopted a resolution that will have Crimea ask to join Russia if that measure is approved by the referendum.  Russian lawmakers have announced that they will discuss legislation on March 21 to admit Crimea into Russia.

• Released details of the referendum offer two options to Crimean voters: to join the Russian Federation or to remain as a part of Ukraine under an abolished 1992 Crimean constitution that gave Crimea the status of an autonomous republic within Ukraine.

• Ukraine’s acting Defense Minister Ihor Teniukh has revealed that only 6,000 troops were ready for combat due to years of neglect by previous Ukrainian governments.  Oleksandr Turchynov, the acting president, has established a new National Guard by mobilizing internal police troops to augment existing military forces.

• In a speech from Rostov-on-Don, Russia, ousted Ukrainian President Yanukovych asserted his claim to be the rightful president and denounced the May 25 Ukrainian presidential elections as unlawful.  He accused the U.S. and the West of backing an ultranationalist and fascist government in Ukraine, warned that the Ukrainian government would spark a civil war, and urged the Ukrainian military to resist the government.

• Conflicting stories have been released on the failure to arrange a meeting between Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian President Putin.
  • A brief televised exchange between Putin and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov claimed that Kerry had rejected an invitation to travel to Russia for consultations.
  • The State Department claimed that Russia was not prepared to engage with the U.S. and were unwilling to meet with officials from the new Ukrainian government.
     
• John Kerry is in Ukraine with an offer of American aid and technical assistance.  Touring the streets of Kiev, Kerry lit a candle at one of the makeshift shrines dedicated to some of victims killed in February’s protests.
   
• Western leaders have met in London to discuss the implementation of sanctions (including asset freezes and travel bans).  Sanctions could come into effect as early as this week if Russia fails to respond to Western mediation efforts.
   
• Pro-Russian forces have closed Crimean airspace to all commercial flights.

• In what is seen as an American gesture of support for its eastern NATO allies, the U.S. has begun a series of military exercises with Poland.  Meanwhile, naval exercises in the Black Sea between the U.S., Bulgaria and Romania have been delayed by weather.  While the U.S. has claimed that both military exercises were planned before the onset of the Crimean crisis, Polish President Bronislav Komorowski expressed oblique concern for the Crimean situation.

• NATO will deploy early warning aircraft to Romania and Poland to monitor the Ukraine crisis.

Government Statements

Jen Psaki, “Daily Press Briefing – March 10, 2014 – Ukraine,” U.S. Department of State, March 10, 2014
http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/dpb/2014/03/223197.htm#UKRAINE

“U.S. Will Beef Up Air Operations in Poland,” U.S. Department of Defense, March 10, 2014
http://www.defense.gov/news/newsarticle.aspx?id=121808
 

Analytical Pieces:

Eugene Chausovsky, “Ukraine’s Increasing Polarization and the Western Challenge,” Stratfor, March 11, 2014
http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/ukraines-increasing-polarization-and-western-challenge
Chausovsky is an Eurasia Analyst and Director of Europe and Former Soviet Union Analysis for Stratfor.

Bruce P. Jackson, “How to Overcome the Ukraine Stalemate,” The National Interest, March 11, 2014
http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/how-overcome-the-ukraine-stalemate-10029
Jackson is the president of the Project on Transitional Democracies.

William Partlett, “Yes, Crimeans Do Have a Choice – And a Good One,” The National Interest, March 11, 2014
http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/yes-crimeans-do-have-choice%E2%80%94-good-one-10026
Partlett is a postdoctoral fellow at Columbia Law School.

Jamie Metzl, “Back to the Future in Ukraine and Asia,” Project Syndicate, March 10, 2014
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/jamie-f--metzl-says-that-russia-and-china-are-reenacting-nineteenth-century-norms-of-international-behavior
Metzl is a partner in a New York-based global investment firm and a senior fellow at the Asia Society.  He formerly served on the National Security Council and the State Department during the Clinton administration.

Alexander J. Motyl, “Is Losing Crimea a Loss?: What Russia Can Expect in Ukraine’s Rust Belt,” Foreign Affairs, March 10, 2014
http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/141020/alexander-j-motyl/is-losing-crimea-a-loss
Motyl, an Ukrainian-Amerian, is a professor of political science at Rutgers University-Newark.

Kori Schake, “The White House Needs to Shut Up: Every time the administration opens its mouth, it’s only making things worse in Ukraine,” Foreign Policy, March 10, 2014
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2014/03/10/obama_putin_ukraine_russia
Schake is a fellow at the Hoover Institution.

Marina Lewycka, “Ukraine and the west: hot air and hypocrisy,” The Guardian, March 10, 2014
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/10/ukraine-and-west-hot-air-hypocrisy-crimea-russia

Leonid Bershidsky, “Anti-War Russians, an Endangered Minority,” Bloomberg, March 10, 2014
http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-03-10/anti-war-russians-an-endangered-minority

Video

National Interest Interview of Alexey Pushkov – March 10, 2014
http://nationalinterest.org/video/interview-alexey-pushkov-crimea-10031
Pushkov is the head of the foreign affairs committee within the Russian legislature.

Key developments

• Interim Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk will meet with President Obama on Wednesday at the White House. Yatsenyuk will also address the UN Security Council in New York City on Thursday.
   
• Over the weekend, world leaders have conducted a series of phone conversations trying to garner international support for their viewpoints:
   
  • President Obama spoke separately with Prime Minister Cameron of the U.K., President Hollande of France and Prime Minister Renzi of Italy. Obama welcomed the unified stance taken by the U.S. and Europe against Russian military intervention in Crimea.
     
  • Obama also spoke with Presidents Berzins of Latvia, Grybauskaite of Lithuania and Ilves of Estonia. The Baltic leaders welcomed last week’s deployment of U.S. fighters to the region, while Obama expressed continued U.S. commitments to its NATO allies.
     
  • In separate phone calls with Chancellor Merkel and President Obama, President Xi Jinping of China urged restraint and a peaceful resolution to the conflict.
     
  • In phone conversations with Prime Minister Cameron and Chancellor Merkel, President Putin claims that Russian actions in the Crimea were in accordance with international law and that the new Ukrainian government was failing to curb “ultra-nationalist and radical forces.” 
     
• In a press conference in Kiev, Geoffrey R. Pyatt, the U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, has stated that the U.S. will not recognize the results of the Crimean referendum scheduled for Sunday, March 16. These statements were echoed by Antony Blinken, the deputy national security advisor, in D.C.
   
• In response to U.S. sanctions, the Russian Defense Ministry warns that it is considering freezing international inspections of Russia’s nuclear weapons that are a part of Russia’s commitment to nuclear arms treaties.
   
• Pavlo Rizanenko, a member of the Ukrainian parliament, has warned that the failure of the Budapest Memorandum may force Ukraine to acquire nuclear weapons as a deterrent against Russia. The 1994 Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances signed by the Russian Federation, the U.S. and the U.K. guarantees the sovereignty of an independent Ukraine in return for Ukrainian accession to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and the surrender of all Ukrainian Soviet-inherited nuclear weapons to Russia.
   
• Kiev estimates that there are 18,000 pro-Russian troops currently in Crimea. “Russian troops have deployed along the Crimea’s borders to block the movement of Ukrainian troops.
   
• As the Russian Foreign Ministry condemned anti-Russian violence in eastern Ukraine, Russian news agencies are reporting a looming pro-Russian uprising in the region.
   
• Western officials are trying to find ways to alleviate the stranglehold of Russian natural gas on Ukraine that include larger natural gas exports from the United States, reversing natural gas from Western Europe back to Ukraine and diversifying natural gas imports from countries other than Russia.
   
• Ukrainian television channels have been shut down in the Crimea and replaced by Russian state television.
   
• Planned U.S. aid to Ukraine has become entangled in a political dispute over the governance structure of the International Monetary Fund that would grant more control to emerging powers. Republicans fear a loss of American influence and express an unwillingness to use taxpayer money to bail out fiscally irresponsible countries like Ukraine.

Government Statements

Secretary General of the UN, Ban Ki-moon, calls Crimea referendum “worrying and serious” development – March 7, 2014

Joint press statement of NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen and interim Ukrainian Prime Minister Arsenii Yatseniuk – March 6, 2014

Analytical Pieces

Andong Peng, “Ukraine – A Case for Chinese Involvement,” The Diplomat, March 10, 2014

Edward Luttwak, “Russia Wants Much More Than Crimea,” New Republic, March 9, 2014

Mitchell A. Orenstein, “Get Ready for a Russo-German Europe: The Two Powers That Will Decide Ukraine’s Future – and the Region’s,” Foreign Affairs, March 9, 2014

Judy Dempsey, “Crimea and the Cost of Playing for Time,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace – Strategic Europe, March 10, 2014

Condoleezza Rice, “Will America heed the wake-up call of Ukraine?,” Washington Post, March 7, 2014

Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg and Bogdan Klich, “Disrupting Putin’s Game Plan,” Project Syndicate, March 7, 2014

Steven Pifer, “Honoring Neither the Letter nor the Law,” Foreign Policy, March 7, 2014

Keith Johnson, “Help Is Not on the Way,” Foreign Policy, March 7, 2014

Matthew Gault, “This Is Why Russia Wants Crimea,” Medium – War is Boring, March 7, 2014

Paul Pilar, “More Sanctioning Madness,” The National Interest, March 6, 2014