EWI Vice President and Director of Public Policy Andrew Nagorski recently appeared on Fox News to weigh in on the recent expulsion of U.S. journalist David Satter from Russia—the first expulsion of its kind since the Cold War. Watch the interview, below.
Russia has 8.420 nuclear warheads of which 1.720 are operational,2700 are in storage and 4000 are retired.
At present, Russia is thought to have well over 1,000 tactical weapons over various sorts along its western border, including the enclave of Kaliningrad according to some reports. The US has about 180 B61 nuclear gravity bombs stored at bases in Germany, Belgium, Netherlands, Italy and Turkey.
EWI Board Member Kanwal Sibal has written an article for the Daily Mail on India’s evolving relations with Russia and China. He also considers related implications for India-U.S. relations.
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's back-to-back visits to Russia and China from October 20 to 24 reflect the evolution of India's external relations in a world with shifting power balances.
The challenges lie in consolidating relations with tried and trusted friends with declining power, while forging understandings with adversaries with rising influence who seek to advance their interests through tactical overtures of friendship.
Russia
Russia remains a vital strategic partner of India. The long-term geopolitical interests of both are compatible. Russia is not interfering in sub-continental affairs, where it recognises India's primacy.
On principles that should govern international relations such as respect for sovereignty and non-interference in the internal affairs of countries, combating international terrorism without double standards, and opposition to regime change policies, India and Russia have shared views.
Russia is India's principal defence partner, offering over the years platforms and technologies that have fortified our defence capabilites, whether it is the aircraft carrier Vikramaditya, the leased nuclear propelled submarine Chakra, technical assistance for Arihant, licensed manufacture of front-line combat equipment such as the Sukhoi 30 MKI aircraft and T90 tanks, the joint development of the potent supersonic missile Brahmos, or co-developing the fifth generation fighter aircraft and a multi-role transport aircraft.
Russia's politically significant role in India's civilan nuclear sector is epitomised by the construction of two 1000 MW nuclear power plants at Kudankulam, honouring a commitment made prior to its Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) membership.
The techno-commercial negotiations for building two additional reactors at Kudankulam have been completed, but the contract's finalisation awaits resolution of issues raised by India's nuclear liability legislation.
With China our territorial disputes endure. China has strengthened its military infrastructure on our frontiers, forcing India to belatedly raise additional forces and allocate enhanced infrastructure expenditure on its side. China seeks substantial territorial concessions by India, not simply an agreement on border adjustment, which makes settlement a distant prospect.
Vladimir Putin (right) will need reassuring that India's increasing ties with the US will not come at Russia's expense
Vladimir Putin (right) will need reassuring that India's increasing ties with the US will not come at Russia's expense
The confidence-building border measures that China backs are intended to prevent military incidents that would distract it from dealing with far bigger challenges in the east presented by US and Japan constraining China's regional dominance and its naval power expansion.
China
China interferes actively in our region, feeding fears of Indian hegemony amongst our smaller neighbours and preventing India from raising its global profile by consolidating its regional base. Pakistan, which has been fully complicit in this, receives Chinese political and military backing for pursuing its confrontational policies towards India.
China is Pakistan's principal defence partner. By transferring nuclear weapon and missile technology to Pakistan, China has profoundly damaged India's security.
In the civilian nuclear field, as a counter to India-Russia nuclear ties, before joining the NSG, China "grandfathered" its supposed commitment to supply two nuclear reactors to Pakistan. It then decided to supply two additional reactors on the same pretext, this time as a riposte to the India-US nuclear deal.
PM Manmohan Singh will hope for a positive agreement on border security when he visits China this month
PM Manmohan Singh will hope for a positive agreement on border security when he visits China this month
China is aiding in the construction of plutonium reactors in Pakistan to enable it to build smaller warheads for tactical nuclear weapons.
Despite political closeness, India's economic relationship with Russia remains modest, with two-way bilateral trade at only $11 billion plus last year. The target of $20 billion by 2015 seems unachievable. Several business promotion efforts have failed to boost economic exchanges.
India is proposing Russian investments in the Delhi-Mumbai industrial corridor, while the expanded energy partnership with Russia that India has long sought remains unrealised. In contrast, despite serious political differences, India-China trade relations have flourished, expanding to nearly $70 billion in 2012, making China India's largest trading partner in goods despite the damage done to our manufacturing sector in the process and security concerns emanating from China's huge penetration of our power and telecom sectors.
However, the $100 billion target set for 2015 is unlikely to be achieved because the trade deficit - likely to reach $40 billion this year - is becoming unsustainable.
Strategy
Improved India-US ties impact our relations with both Russia and China. Russia's primary concern would be the erosion of its dominant position as our defence partner as we increase our acquisitions of US defence equipment, as this affects political equations.
India will need to continually reassure Russia concretely that its expanded strategic ties with the US would not be at Russia's expense. China closely monitors US arms sales to India, viewing them as integral to the American strategy to create a security ring around China. With China under an arms embargo by the West, Russia has been China's principal arms supplier, with the potential sale of Russia's Su 35 combat aircraft to China under discussion.
Russia's concerns about Chinese reverse engineering are pitted against its need to export to sustain its domestic defence industry, besides solidifying strategic understandings with China as a consequence of western geopolitical and economic pressures on it.
More...
India and Russia to settle issues over Kudankulam nuclear project
India may lease second nuclear submarine from Russia
Omar says India can no longer be a silent victim
Russia has also supplied RD-93 engines to power the JF-17 fighter aircraft, a China-Pakistan joint venture.
Our triple challenge is to avoid entanglement in Russia-US tensions, manage to our advantage US-China strategic competition and attenuate the negatives for us of increased Russia-China collaboration.
The PM's Moscow visit for the 14th summit meeting will be successful if it delivers the Kudankulam 3 and 4 contract. The deliverable from the China visit will be the Border Defence Cooperation Agreement, valuable for avoiding incidents, not solving their cause.
Our challenge, then, is to build a larger edifice of relations with Russia on existing strong political and security foundations, whereas with China it is ensuring the safety of the impressive edifice that is rising on foundations that are not only weak but can shift.
The writer is a former Foreign Secretary
EWI Senior Fellow Danila Bochkarev,spoke in Ljubljana, Slovenia recently about the effects of the energy industry on EU-Russia relations.
“Europe's becoming more active on the energy [front], while Russia is becoming more defensive,” he said. “The idea is how to find a compromise.”
Bochkarev listed some areas of conflict over energy, including market competition and deregulation, climate change/environmental standards, and maintaining secure gas supplies.
Click here to read a summary of Bochkarev’s speech in Natural Gas Europe.
This study submits twelve major recommendations to the private sector, governments and other stakeholders—especially the financial sector—for the purpose of improving the reliability, robustness, resilience and security of the world’s undersea communications cable infrastructure.
In practical terms, these twelve recommendations are offered as challenges to individuals. These will be the ones who will need to make the difference when a difference is called for. The senior leaders and subject matter experts of equipment suppliers, network operators and service providers; the leaders and participants of the industry’s fora; researchers; consultants in small firms; government policy makers and staff employees; IT specialists in financial firms; and many others—all are strongly urged to include this report in their dialogue and to do so speedily, as the improvement opportunities described have important benefits to many throughout the world—and the consequences, many downsides.
It is encouraging that at the time of this report dispatch, a number of private sector interests have indicated their willingness to take the next steps suggested for several recommendations. Each of the recommendations should be considered and acted upon with urgency proportional to the vital role that international communications networks and services will play in the future. The critical priority for implementation is clear. Without reliable international communications networks and services, public welfare is endangered, economic stability is at risk, other critical sectors are exposed, and nation-state security is threatened. The implementation of this report’s recommendations will significantly reduce these and other risks. Each of the twelve recommendations is both challenging and achievable. The intent of the ROGUCCI process from the beginning has been to improve the world’s communications. Successful implementation of each recommendation will significantly improve the reliability and robustness of communications services for the citizens around the world. However, each will require skill, resolve and genuine partnership among government entities, stakeholders and the private sector.
This study strongly urges the private sector, governments and other stakeholders to chart and embark on a new course of policy and practice that forcefully advocates highly available, highly reliable, highly robust, highly resilient and highly secure international communications infrastructure.
Click here to download the complete publication from the IEEE web site
Leading officials of NATO, Russia and the United States spoke at an informal round-table on joint ballistic missile defence at the EastWest Institute on Wednesday, March 30, 2011. Here is a selection of media reports from this off-the-record meeting.
· Russia Today [in English]
· Ria Novosti [in Russian]
· Voice of Russia [in English]
· Voice of Russia [in Russian]
· Kosmopolskaya Pravda [in Russian]
· ARMS-TASS [in Russian]
· Radio Mayak [in Russian]
· VPK [in Russian]
· MAIL.RU [in Russian]
