Russia

Nudging Behemoth

By 1989, the communist movement was going through its final convulsions on the world stage.

The ideology laid out in the Communist Manifesto by Marx and Engels, imported to Russia by Lenin, imposed on East Europe by Stalin and exported to the developing world by his successors had lost whatever was left of its legitimacy. For those mired in the past, the Cold War lingered on without direction and without end. For those engaging in the future it was imperative to start setting a new agenda for international cooperation.

In 1989, a consortium of research fellows from EWI produced a treatise on arms control called Conventional Arms Control and East-West Security published by Oxford and Duke University Presses, while another team released a supporting volume entitled, Managing the Transition: Integrating the Reforming Socialist Countries into the World Economy. Both were to have significant impact on expert debate. By 1990, the USSR was entering a full-scale economic crisis with increasing shortages, plunges in production, and a dangerous decline in state revenues. To facilitate responses to the financial and humanitarian crises, EWI was asked to convene many new types of meetings. One of the most useful was the first ever meeting between policy planning directors of the USSR and Eastern Europe with the United States and Western Europe. EWI's high-level Consultative Group on Economic Reform in the USSR brought Gorbachev's top team to the U.S. to work and Western experts to Moscow.

Personally sanctioned by Gorbachev, the Consultative Group was created to handle the increasing economic crisis of the Soviet Union. EWI had begun to shift its emphasis away from hard security concerns and concentrate on the wrenching economic transitions in the East. As the Soviet system stood on the verge of collapse, the failures of the command economies now posed as much of a threat to the unification of Europe as the Cold War had only a short time before.

Lowering the Nuclear Threshold

In 1986, an untested Soviet leader began employing a new political lexicon, and his expressions generated controversy and suspicion.

As if proposing "substantial reductions of all forces in Europe" were not sufficient, there were also unimaginable words from a Soviet leader such as "dependable verification" and "on-site inspections." Given previous deceptive Soviet slogans like Stalin's "world peace campaign," the West was right to be suspicious. Yet despite Western reservations, there was an equal obligation to investigate these new policy changes.

At the time Gorbachev began disclosing plans for potential arms reductions in Europe, the Warsaw Pact was comprised of 5,343,000 soldiers, and NATO, 3,670,000, while the nuclear arsenals on both sides were proliferating. An entire generation grew up fearing that an accident triggered anywhere, at any time, could quickly spell disaster the world over. Thus, when the new leadership in the Kremlin started discussions toward arms reductions it was the moral obligation of EWI to contemplate these offers seriously.

The Institute at that time had accumulated some unusual back channel diplomacy experience. As early as 1984, during the conservative reign of General Secretary and former head of the KGB Yuri Andropov, the Institute hosted the first ever military-to-military dialogue meetings between NATO and the Warsaw Pact countries. By 1986, the organization was well placed to host a completely unprecedented series of "non meetings" between high-ranking military officers of NATO and the Warsaw Pact in Budapest and Munich. The EWI Conventional Arms Reduction Working Group in the mid-'80s yielded surprising policy results. In September of 1986, leaders from NATO and the Warsaw Pact signed the groundbreaking Stockholm Agreement, which reduced the risk of war in Europe by providing both sides with advance notice of troop movements, inspections and verified compliance. Achievements such as these would have been impossible to conceive of only a few years earlier.

Although General Secretary Gorbachev's initial reforms in bloc relations were solely of a military nature, they gave indications that the East was about to undergo fundamental changes. The Institute, risk taking from its inception, was among the first to truly understand this. Accordingly, the strategy of engagement offered EWI a unique place at the table, and from this vantage point, instead of merely reacting to events, EWI helped make them possible.

The Beginnings: Who are you really, John Mroz?

The EastWest Institute was born in the East. It was begun over a beer in a Chinese restaurant with a modest proposal from Co-Founder Ira Wallach. "If you could do anything to make the world a safer place for my grandchildren, John, what would you do?"

At the time of this unexpected conversation in 1981, the realities of a deepening Cold War had set in and the possibility of ending the Cold War was amongst the most distant of dreams. The détente period was slowing down and the rhetoric on both sides was heating up. The Third World was a frequent battlefield for the two superpowers and new instabilities from Afghanistan to Mozambique were dangerously destabilizing the East-West balance of power. Other forces, both sectarian and nationalistic, were appearing to endanger the peace. In Iran, the revolutionary turmoil of 1979 encouraged the ruinous Iraqi invasion. Lebanon was engulfed in violence, and Beirut was one of the most infamous of cities on earth.

Life in Lebanon in the early 1980s was not for the weak at heart. Incoming phone calls could generate deadly explosions and casual drives down winding dirt roads turned into fatal ambushes. The bullets of professional assassins killed their targets, and stray bullets killed at random. To John Edwin Mroz, a young scholar who devoted much of his time to the Middle East working on UN peacekeeping and peacebuilding efforts, the horrors of Lebanon provided an urgent sense of mission, and this adversity forged the character of EWI.

A headline in a newspaper in Ceaucescu's Romania posed the theoretical question, "Who are You Really, John Mroz?" The inference was that he was an agent of a neighboring country. Mistrustful minds for years have sought to understand the "real agenda" behind the EastWest Institute. During the course of countless interviews in Europe and the U.S., John Mroz and EWI were labeled "Polish partisans," "Hungarian nationalists," or supporters of other nationalities that the speaker viewed as opponents. Some questioned whether John and EWI were agents of the U.S. government or a furtive subordinate of the USSR. It seemed impossible that a group of European and American citizens could come together and set out to build confidence and promote fundamental change.

What lies behind the "real motives" of EWI however, can be found in the tragic cityscape of war-torn Lebanon. Here the ambitions and aspirations of the EastWest Institute were ultimately forged. Of the wide range of potential responses to this human tragedy, the Institute conceived by John Mroz and Ira Wallach that day in Amman was born on the road less traveled. A decision was made soon after that afternoon in Jordan to engage the struggle directly, fighting back for peace and to give a chance for the people and nations in the region to know freedom and prosperity. This has set the agenda of EWI, and after twenty years of working in a world in transformation this cause remains as sacred today as when the Institute was born.

EWI Leader: Francis Finlay

In a recent conversation, Francis Finlay, Co-Chairman of EWI’s board, described how he first encountered EWI on a trip to post-Cold War Eastern Europe in 1992 with a group of institutional investors organized by George Russell.

“The first evening in Prague, John Mroz, President and co-founder of the EastWest Institute, was the opening speaker,” Finlay recalls. “John gave an informative, stimulating and comprehensive overview of current political and economic developments in the region. Over the years he gave consistently excellent presentations on many of the group’s annual trips.”

Indeed, according to Finlay, “one of the continuously valuable aspects of being involved with EWI is the unique perspective on geopolitical developments provided by Mroz and the institute’s staff and fellows.” He adds: “Given the contagion effect in emerging markets, in-depth understanding of local social, political and economic conditions provides a significant edge at times of high volatility to investors.”

Finlay subsequently joined the board, and in 2008 was elected Co-Chairman with George Russell, becoming Chairman in 2009. “I was extremely honored to succeed George Russell,” says Finlay. Currently he and Ross Perot, Jr. are Co-Chairmen.

EWI has been fortunate to have such a seasoned leader. Following sale of the international investment firm Clay Finlay Inc that he co-founded in 1982 and his decision to step down from a leadership position, Finlay has focused on “a portfolio of enthusiasms.” These include investment directorships across a range of investment disciplines as well as membership of several investment committees, including those of Oxford University and the British Museum, where he is also a Trustee. His not-for profit directorships outside the field of international affairs focus on education and the arts.

Despite his many commitments, Finlay is an enthusiastic participant in EWI activities, taking a leading role in high-level meetings in China, Russia, the Middle East and Europe. He has taken a particular interest in EWI’s work on sub-sea cable security, attending the initial seminar in Dubai and several subsequent C40 meetings

In 2010, Finlay chaired a conference for EWI at the European Parliament on Strengthening the Role of Afghan Women Parliamentarians.  He was impressed by the clear outcome of the conference. “Everyone who attended left for home with the urgent mission of making sure that their local parliamentarians were aware of the risks these exceptional women face in the event of serious domestic reconciliation negotiations.”

In Finlay’s view, one of the EWI’s distinguishing attributes is the senior staff’s flexibility and willingness to take on new security challenges, with cybersecurity  serving as the most recent example.  Reflecting on what differentiates EWI from other organizations, Finlay concludes, “This is not an institute that exists to publish, it exists to make a difference.”

At EWI, we thank Francis Finlay, along with our other generous donors and committed directors for their support, which allows us to make that difference.

 To watch Finlay and others describe his experiences at EWI, we invite you to watch the following video: 

 

 

This video also includes commentary from:  Joseph Nye, member of EWI’s Presidents Advisory GroupProfessor, Harvard University, and the author of The Future of PowerLady Barbara Judge, founding EWI Board Member and Chairman, Pension Protection Fund, UK; F. Stephen Larrabee, former EWI Vice President and Director of Studies, Distinguished Chair in European Security, the RAND Corporation; Dr. Claire Gordon, former EWI Staff Member and Teaching Fellow, London School of Economics; Greg Austin, EWI Vice President; Vasil Hudak, former EWI Staff Member and Executive Director, JPMorgan; Stephen Heintz, EWI Board Member and President, Rockefeller Brothers Fund; Peter Castenfelt, EWI Board Member and Chairman, Archipelago Enterprises, Ltd; Dr. Armen Sarkissian, EWI Vice-Chairman and Former Prime Minister of Armenia; and Professor Louise Richardson, EWI Board Member and Principal, University of St. Andrews.

 

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