Strategic Trust-Building

The EastWest Institute (EWI) today released Terrorism in Afghanistan: A Joint Threat Assessment, the culminating report from the institute’s Joint U.S.-Russia Working Group on Counterterrorism in Afghanistan. Authored by American and Russian contributors, the report provides a timely, even-handed assessment of terrorism and armed conflict in Afghanistan, while also exploring the counterterrorism agenda in the broader geopolitical context of U.S.-Russia relations.

“In spite of ongoing tensions between the United States and Russia, Afghanistan and counterterrorism have remained rare dynamic areas for constructive, bilateral dialogue,” said Vladimir Ivanov, director of the Working Group and EWI’s Russia and the United States program. “At this critical juncture in Afghanistan’s road to peace, and as violence continues to plague the country, it is more important than ever for the U.S. and Russia to better align their counterterrorism and peace-making efforts, not just for the safety and stability of Afghanistan, but for the region and world.”

Click here for the full report. The Russian translation of Terrorism in Afghanistan: A Joint Threat Assessment will be made available in June 2020.

Terrorism in Afghanistan: A Joint Threat Assessment is intended to serve as an analytical tool for policymakers and an impetus for joint U.S.-Russia action. The report provides an overview of the security situation and peace process in Afghanistan, taking into account U.S. and Russian policies, priorities and interests; surveys the militant terrorist groups in and connected to Afghanistan and explores the security interests of various regional stakeholders vis-à-vis Afghanistan. Challenges relating to border management, arms trafficking and terrorist financing in Afghanistan are also briefly addressed.

Launched in October 2017, the Working Group convened U.S. and Russian policy and technical experts in Moscow, Washington, D.C., Brussels and Vienna over the course of two years. The Working Group has since garnered positive feedback and support from key interlocutors, including the U.S. Department of State, U.S Department of Defense and Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, as well as the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE).

On May 20, Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen will be sworn in for her second term, while strains in the tripartite relationship between China, Taiwan, and United States reach unprecedented levels. Taiwan continues to be used as a ploy in the political games between the world’s two superpowers, with both sides turning up the heat in the Taiwan Strait. Tsai’s inauguration coincides with U.S. lobbying efforts to help Taiwan secure observer status at the World Health Organization (WHO)’s 73rd World Health Assembly, as well as increased pressure from Beijing to have more say in the self-ruling island’s status. Though it is likely that Tsai will maintain her track record of capably preserving the cross-strait status quo, U.S.-China competition may emerge as a potential game changer in the unresolved Taiwan Strait crisis, especially with the U.S. presidential election drawing closer.

Tsai and the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) she represents won a landslide victory in the January election, which was widely seen as a referendum on the future of Taiwan and its relationship with China. Over 8 million voters cast their ballots for Tsai, placing confidence in her ability to defend Taiwan’s democracy and sovereignty. The election took place when Taiwan’s heightened sympathy for Hong Kong’s fight for democracy was juxtaposed against the precipitous erosion of the “one country, two systems” formula, originally developed for Taiwan by former Communist Party leader Deng Xiaoping and only later adopted for Hong Kong. Three decades after the formula’s conception, Chinese President Xi Jinping’s overture to the Taiwanese about “inevitable” reunification has been quickly dismissed and the prospect of Taiwan returning to China is a taboo subject for Taiwanese politicians. Not surprisingly, the Kuomintang (KMT) opposition party is still licking its wounds from the electoral defeat that was driven, in no small part, from its struggle to move past its Beijing-friendly position.

Click here to read the full article on The Diplomat.

Currently, we witness a volatile, polarized and destabilizing international security environment that has exposed us to the grey zones of war and peace. Security challenges arising from both hybrid threats and hybrid warfare (both multiple and synchronized threats that aim to target states’ vulnerabilities at different levels covering domains other than military) seem to have held front seat on the global security agenda thereby altering the relevance of nuclear deterrence. Deterrence is generally understood as an ability to dissuade a state from embarking upon a course of action prejudicial to one’s vital security interests, based on demonstrative capability. The nuclear deterrence theory, as propounded by Brodie (Brodie 1946, p. 76), which is grounded in political realism, enriches our thought process to comprehend the potential character of nuclear weapons. The focus of nuclear deterrence was on averting wars through the psychological manipulation of an adversary’s mind. Thus, it is argued that renewed warfare domains and non-military threats seems to have marginalized the relevance of deterrence theory. Therefore, new mechanisms are required to defend societies and build a correlation between deterrence and evolving wide-raging threats that are non-military in nature. It is further argued that a long-term holistic approach to deterrence as an instrument is needed that focuses on both current military and renewed non-military threats which cover political, economic, social and digital landscape.

Click here to read the full article on E-International Relations.

The dialogue, second in the project series, brought together experts from both the public and private sectors in India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka and the Maldives to jointly analyze threats to water security in Asia in the face of worsening hydro-meteorological disasters due to climate change. The two-day dialogue consisted of six panel discussions on varied topics related to the politicization of water security, including the economic vulnerabilities of the water crisis and stakeholder engagement, among others. 

Experts 

Vice Admiral KKVPH De Silva
Commander of the Sri Lanka Navy

Dr. Nilanjan Ghosh 
Observer Research Foundation-Kolkata

Mr. Dipak Gyawali
Former Minister of Water Resources of Nepal

Mr. Ikram Sehgal
Pathfinder Group Pakistan

Dr. Jayanta Bandyopadhyay
Observer Research Foundation

Dr. Khondaker Azharul Haq
Global Water Partnership South Asia

Mr. Ibrahim Zuhuree
Minister of Foreign Affairs, Republic of Maldives

Mr. Ahmad Rafay Alam
Punjab Environment Protection Council; Pakistan Climate Change Council

Dr. Damodar Pokharel
Nepal Centre for Disaster Management

Mr. Shafqat Munir
Bangladesh Institute of Peace and Security Studies

Dr. Uttam Sinha
Nehru Memorial Museum and Library

Dr. Suba Chandran Durai
National Institute of Advanced Studies

Ms. Dharisha Mirando
China Water Risk

Ms. Ailiya Naqvi
Center for Strategic and Contemporary Research

Ms. Joyeeta Bhattacharjee
Observer Research Foundation – New Delhi

Ms. Ruwanthi Jayasekara
Institute of National Security Studies Sri Lanka

Mr. Nisar A. Memon
Water Environment Forum, Pakistan

Mr. Kumar Pandey
Independent Power Producers’ Association of Nepal

Ms. Mallika Joseph
Chanakya Chakra

Moderators

Rear Admiral (RNR) D C Gunawardena
Sri Lankan Navy

Dr. Christian Hübner
Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung RECAP

Mr. Nishchal Pandey
Centre for South Asian Studies

Dr. Walter Ladwig
EastWest Institute

Acknowledgements

This roundtable dialogue on “Water Security and Disaster Management in Asia” was made possible through the partnership and generous support of Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung|RECAP, Institute of National Security Studies Sri Lanka (INSSSL) and Consortium of South Asian Think Tanks (COSATT).

EWI Senior Fellow, Dr. Lora Saalman, spoke on "The Impact of AI on Asia-Pacific Nuclear Risk and Stability" at the Pacific Forum on December 13, 2019 and at the East-West Center on January 9, 2020 in Honolulu, Hawaii.

Her edited report is available here.