Political disagreements between the United States and Russia over Ukraine should not hamper their cooperation in search of strategic solutions to the issue of Afghan drugs production and trafficking. This was a key conclusion drawn by the EastWest Institute’s project team following a three-day meeting of its U.S.-Russia experts steering group on Afghan narcotrafficking, held in Moscow at the end of June. Co-chaired by EastWest’s vice president, David Firestein, and the institute’s Russia office director, Vladimir Ivanov, the meeting in Moscow was convened specifically to assess the implications of the current systemic crisis in Russia’s relations with the West on the security situation and counternarcotics efforts in and around Afghanistan. 

The meeting involved leading experts from the EastWest Institute’s bilateral Joint U.S.-Russia Working Group on Afghan Narcotrafficking: Ilnur Batyrshin, head of the Russian Federal Drug Control Service’s research center; Ivan Safranchuk, associate professor at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations; Konstantin Sorokin, advisor at the International Training and Methodology Centre for Financial Monitoring; Ekaterina Stepanova, head of the Peace and Conflict Studies Unit at the Institute of the World Economy and International Relations; George Gavrilis, visiting scholar at the Institute for Religion, Culture and Public Life at Columbia University; and Austin Long, assistant professor at Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs. The steering group meeting also included Patricia Nicholas, project manager in the International Program at the Carnegie Corporation of New York, whose generous contribution makes possible the work of this EastWest Institute experts group on Afghan narcotrafficking.

Participants discussed the effect of the drawdown in Afghanistan of NATO International Security Assistance Force troops after 2014, with many noting that poppy cultivation and exports of illicit drugs from the country are likely to increase and that a basic precondition to solving this problem in the longer term would be political reconciliation and increased stability and functionality of the Afghan government at both the central and local levels. Discussion also focused on possible measures for managing the situation in the interim, such as continued international assistance to help raise the capacity of Afghan military and security forces as well as enhanced efforts to secure the borders around Afghanistan to counter both illicit drugs exports and the possible spillover of violent extremism to the neighboring countries. In this context, it was pointed out by some participants that even if U.S.-Russian counternarcotics cooperation continues at the operational level in this post-Crimea-sanctions environment, this is not enough to effectively address the complexity of Afghan drugs and security issues. 

The steering group devoted one full meeting day entirely to consultations with key regional players that contribute to shaping security and counternarcotics strategies around Afghanistan. The consultations involved senior diplomats from the embassies in Moscow of Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iran and Kazakhstan as well as the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Secretariat of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). Ambassador Zamir Kabulov, Special Envoy of the Russian Federation President for Afghanistan, also addressed the group. 

The outcome of the steering group meeting in Moscow made it clear that the EastWest Institute’s leadership of this dialogue is particularly important against the backdrop of the recent challenges in the U.S.-Russia relationship at the governmental level. The steering group concluded that increasing efforts to engage regional players in this project could be an effective step towards helping restore regular communication between the Russian and U.S. counternarcotics communities. 

Current developments in Iraq expose further the failure of US policies in West Asia.

With all the resources at its command, of information, analysis and technical expertise, and the sense of responsibility that must accompany the overwhelming power it possesses, the US should not be committing egregious mistakes in dealing with an unstable region like West Asia, riven with historical enmities, issues of nationhood, religious extremism, sectarian conflict and terrorism.

Instead of stabilising the region and releasing forces that would bring about real improvements in governance, participatory politics, institution building and social modernisation, US policies have largely done the opposite.

This becomes glaring as the declared reasons for interventions are the promotion of democracy, pluralism, human rights and western values.

Terrorism

The Arab Spring, supposedly the harbinger of democracy in West Asia and evidence that Islam and democracy are not antithetical, has degenerated into an ouster by the military of a democratically-elected regime in Egypt that seemed determined to Islamise the polity, contrary to majority opinion.

After endorsing the toppled Muslim Brotherhood as a moderate force, the US now backs a military regime that is determined to decimate it in the name of democracy and human rights.

Libya's Gaddafi was eliminated in a brutal manner to general glee, and now lawlessness and political anarchy reign in the country.

The killing of the US Ambassador in Benghazi illustrated the folly of assuming self-imposed burdens to end tyranny in third countries and gift western freedoms to their peoples.

Pursuing ill-thought-out regime change policies, a peaceful street protest in Syria suppressed by force by the Syrian government became the peg for the West to hound President Assad, peremptorily summoning him to step down, threatening military reprisals, supporting a motley of violent opposition groups to force his eviction, all unmindful of the religious and ethnic diversity of the country and the danger of sectarian forces destroying its secular fabric.

With the country torn by a raging civil war worsened by external meddling, the cause of democracy and human freedoms in Syria has been buried under the debris of destruction there.

If military interventions in the region were intended to eliminate international terrorism, that objective has not been achieved either.

The US had wrongly accused Saddam Hussain of Al Qaida links. Afghanistan was attacked and the Taliban regime evicted for harbouring Al Qaida.

Although remnants of the Osama-led Al Qaida leadership remain in Pakistan, the overall success in vanquishing Al Qaida was cited as reason for US withdrawal from Afghanistan.

Today, Al Qaida-linked forces are active across a much wider geography than before  - in Mali, Yemen, Libya and Syria - not to mention the emergence of various extremist jihadi groups, some even more radical than Al Qaida like the salafists linked to Saudi Arabia, a US ally.

Oddly, even as the US fights Al Qaida, its Gulf allies finance death-dealing jihadi groups promoting an ideology diametrically opposed to US's value-based policies for the region.

The contradictions in US policies have resulted in stultifying its regime change plans in Syria for fear of hard core Islamists taking over there.

Worse, Al Qaida has finally surfaced in Sunni dominated parts of Iraq and adjoining Syrian territory dressed up as the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS).

The US has either failed to closely monitor ground developments in Iraq and Syria, or is now incapable of controlling the emergence of these fanatical forces because of their links to some of its Arab allies and its own vanishing appetite for renewed military intervention.

Ironically, the US now seems open to working with Shia Iran to stem the rising tide of Sunni zealotry in the region.

Combat

In our region, US policy confusion prevents the use of those instruments at its disposal against Pakistan's complicity with religious extremism and terror directed against US interests in Afghanistan, that it has used liberally against Iran and threatens to use to modify Russian behaviour in Ukraine.

The release of prominent Taliban figures from Guantanamo Bay suggests preparatory work for a possible deal with this obscurantist force ideologically linked to extremist Sunni groups in West Asia.

The US seems less interested in confronting extremist Islamist ideologies, as they have used them in the past to achieve geopolitical ends, and more in channelling their hostility away from itself and, failing that, combating them.

Assessment

Ironically, the country at the forefront of combating terrorism and extremist forces westwards of us is the main cause of their expanding footprint because of misguided policies.

In the quest to impose democracy, freedom and western values by force if necessary, it has unleashed forces of bigotry and sectarianism, placing the lives of millions in distress.

If ISIS claims it is out to unravel the Sykes-Picot agreement, the US intervention in Iraq was the first ominous step in that direction. India has been exposed to security threats because of US policies.

They have distorted relations with Iran, especially in the area of energy security.

From being our second largest oil supplier, Iran has dropped to fifth place, while Iraq has become our second largest oil supplier, with Indian purchases reaching $20billion in 2012.

But now our energy interests are threatened in Iraq because of policy errors of the political and military overlords of the region.

We should assess the impact of US policies in our western neighbourhood on our security. This exercise is important in the light of our "strategic partnership" with the US and the assumption that we have a convergence of interests globally.

Better late than never, the much awaited assault on North Waziristan has begun, 75 days later than it should have. To quote my article, “Non-stop” of Mar 6, 2014, “The precision strikes of the PAF disrupted the TTP’s administrative and operational deployment. More importantly, ‘actionable intelligence’ was available for these to be carried out, that knowledge is bound to have made the TTP nervous. No collateral damage was reported, confirming these targets were pure militant bases. TTP badly needs time and space to regroup after suffering the PAF’s precision strikes and re-locate its hideouts to safer havens. The “snowline” at 8000 ft is preventing the militants from leaving the valleys and dispersing into the mountains before May. With aircraft/drones overhead this is not easy”, unquote.

Using their proxies within Pakistani civil society to campaign for “ceasefire” and “peace talks”, the militants got the requisite time and space, roping in part of our irresponsible electronic media to do their dirty work of spreading propaganda.  The govt’s vacillation has only add to the casualties, both among our soldiers and civilian non-combatants. Azb was the Sword carried by our beloved Prophet (PBUH) at the Battle of Badr, operation Hazb-e-Azb was preceded by extensive precision air attacks carried by the PAF. This took out a number of Uzbek and other foreign militants, including Abu Abdur Rehman Almani, alleged mastermind of the terrorist attack on the recent Karachi Airport. PAF air strikes, helicopter gunships, field artillery, etc are supporting the ground offensive. Possible exit points have been blocked by using heliborne SSG, supplemented by regular units where possible and necessary. One must not hold one’s breath expecting the Afghan Army to seal the border. In any case the plight of the disintegrating Iraqi Army in the face of Sunni militant onslaught is a harbinger of things to come in Afghanistan post-2014.

Asked during a panel discussion arranged by the US think tank Atlantic Council in Washington DC whether Pakistan Army ever planned going into North Waziristan, my answer “when good and ready” was met with scorn and disbelief. As our jawans spill their “blood and guts” establishing the writ of the State by clearing the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), East Turkistan Islamic Movement (ETIM) and Al-Qaeda elements, one hopes the skeptical will be good enough acknowledge their sacrifice.

Operation Al-Mizan (2002-2006) was the first time the Pakistan Army went into FATA, “Zarb-e-Azb” is the 8th. Combat experience over a dozen years is a great equalizer, the battle conduct of well-equipped, motivated and trained troops  marks the transformation of this Army after the disastrous Al-Mizan into a truly magnificent fighting force top down through all ranks, accelerated after Rah-i-Rast (Swat 2009) and Rah-i-Najat (South Waziristan 2009).  Facing this juggernaut, will Hafiz Gul Bahadur and Mullah Nazir manage to remain aloof from the TTP?  Discretion will probably dictate they stay away. The sacrifices of our officers and jawans notwithstanding, without a dedicated Counter Terrorism Force (CTF) we will not be rid of terrorism in even 100 years. Instead of passively waiting for a “blowback”, the civilian law enforcement agencies (LEAs) need take to the initiative rooting out the militants from their urban hideouts.  Army units being used as a Quick Reaction Force (QRF) should never be deployed in urban areas. The Rangers have done excellent work in Karachi, simply beef them up and give them a free hand.

Pervaiz Rasheed “appealed to the whole nation to stand united behind the govt and the Armed Forces in the war against terrorism.” What a hypocrite! To quote my article “Dangerous Games” of May 14, 2014, “A dozen plus of Mian Sahib’s close political aides seem afflicted with the “Masada Complex”, pushing the Sharifs into a stupid no-win confrontation with the army”, unquote. Mian Nawaz Sharif has a number of sincere, committed and capable leaders, there are quite a few others who are not.  The PEMRA farce only goes to prove the PML (N) Govt siding with Geo against the Army.  In any case the PML (N) Govt has set the ball rolling for its departure in 3-4 months by the brutal police firing in Lahore killing 8 Tahirul Qadri supporters in cold blood. Evoking memories of the shocking PML (N) attack on the Supreme Court (SC) in 1998 was known PML (N) worker Gullu Butt running riot damaging over 20 vehicles and then celebrating by doing “Bhangra”. The SP in-charge publicly embraced this “Goonda” for doing a “good job”.  When criminals function in the name of justice, justice becomes a crime.

CM Sindh Qaim Ali Shah blamed the Federal Govt for the Airport attack, the octogenarian conveniently forgetting that while it was a intelligence failure both at the Federal and Provincial levels, that the base, logistics etc of the Uzbek terrorists were the prime responsibility of the Karachi Police and its intelligence arms directly answerable to the Sindh Govt. This public abdication of responsibility by the Province’s Chief Minister gives sufficient reason to appoint a Lieutenant Governor and put Karachi in a state of emergency for a period of not less than 2 years. A Taliban-led insurrection in Karachi could quickly spread over the country, we do not wait to descend into anarchy like it is happening in Libya, Syria and Iraq. 

KPK’s PTI-led govt is the worst affected by terrorism. Shrugging of the mind-games of PTI’s vociferously pro-Talibaan Rustam Shah Mohmand, Imran Khan and PTI are now thankfully supporting the Army action to rid this country of the menace of terrorism.  PTI’s leader must recognize realpolitik in Pakistan consists of a mix of conservative thinking blending pragmatically with liberal ideas.

The Pakistani electronic media has unfortunately become an inadvertent tool in the terrorist’s hands to successfully propagate their evil objectives, spreading venomous propaganda and creating fear and apprehension to demoralize the population and weaken their confidence in the existing system. Nowhere in the world is time and space given to terrorists as by our irresponsible electronic media. On the other hand they target the army on any given reason. In “Fight or unite?” of May 8, 2014, I had said, “Given that the freedom of the media is a must for sustaining democracy, the media must not use this freedom as a license to tar and feather the Army. Without their continuing sacrifices on a daily basis, the freedom that the media enjoys today would be lost, as would be the country. Close your eyes for one moment and imagine ‘media freedom’ under a Taliban-run country. We must remain within the parameters of good common sense and not cross fail-safe lines”, unquote.  

Appeasement is not an option, terrorism cannot be wished away – and certainly not by good faith and misplaced logic when your brutal antagonists pursue their living by your deaths. There is only one solution to the terrorist problem, and that is to eliminate it.

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Read the piece here on Pakistan Today. 

Photo Credit: martnpro

Our 2013 Annual Report highlights EastWest Institute’s accomplishments of last year. The institute’s goal of building cooperation and forging real solutions to daunting international problems continues to be as relevant as it was at its founding more than 33 years ago.

President and CEO John Mroz states in his President’s Report,  “It is clear that the East and West must work more closely with one another to address issues that affect us all, and establish a new world order that reflects current economic, military and political realities. We have recently seen the dangers when this does not happen.” He emphasizes EWI’s continued key role as a bridge between major powers. 

This report summarizes, among other key efforts, the expanded scope of EWI’s Global Cooperation in Cyberspace program, a cornerstone of the institute’s work. Our Regional Security Initiative continues to push for private and public sector collaboration in Afghanistan and the surrounding region, securing a peaceful, prosperous transition post-2014 troop withdrawal.  Our ongoing U.S.- China high-level dialogues continue to explore ways to manage critical differences over Taiwan, cybersecurity and regional tensions, and we released a well-received Taiwan arms sales policy recommendation that presents a creative way forward to reduce cross-Strait military tension.

In 2014, EWI is forging ahead with these and other conflict reduction initiatives. We are deeply grateful for the continued support of our board, advisors and donors. 

The Asia Pivot Needs a Firm Footing in the Middle East: 
Why Washington can't afford to neglect its friends in the Gulf.

President Barack Obama heads to the Gulf this week at a time of major geopolitical turmoil, with events in Crimea and Russia dominating the headlines. None of this disorder is American-made, of course, and none will be solved by America on its own. But as the U.S. president will hear during his visit, American leadership is still as important to global stability and security as it ever was, and nowhere more than in the Middle East.

Recently, that leadership -- and the security partnerships that bolster it--have been tested and strained. Now facing ever more complex regional challenges from Egypt's transition to a potential nuclear deal with Iran, the president can use his meeting with Saudi King Abdullah this week to signal a new phase of engagement with Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and other regional allies of the United States.

"Those who used to chastise America for acting alone in the world cannot now stand by and wait for America to solve the world's problems alone. We have sought--in word and deed--a new era of engagement with the world," Obama said in his 2009 speech at the United Nations. We welcomed that sentiment then and embrace it as enthusiastically now.

So what should this engagement look like today? It starts with a strong U.S. reaffirmation of our shared vital interests in the Middle East. It is a long and difficult "to do" list that includes containing the Iranian nuclear threat, challenging extremism and fighting terrorism, stabilizing Egypt, ending the violence in Syria, advancing an Arab-Israeli peace, and protecting energy supplies and international shipping.

It also requires better communication. At a working level, there is a constant and productive rhythm of cabinet-level meetings and senior official visits. But relationships in the Middle East are built on personal contact, and maintaining a candid and vibrant dialogue with regular leader-to-leader contact is essential.

For our part, we understand that the path forward is close collaboration with the United States and other regional allies. A strong partnership is essential. In meeting shared threats, we will share the burden. Gulf defense capabilities have improved dramatically, and we are committed to investing even more. Gulf states have a range of sophisticated U.S.-made defense equipment on order; they are jointly deploying advanced missile defense systems; and our militaries continue to train and operate closely together.

In the United Arab Emirates (UAE), we know also that a security partnership can only be strengthened by constant interaction. The UAE has proved its value and commitment both on and off the battlefield, alongside the United States. As a five-time participant in multinational peacekeeping coalitions, we have been fighting together for more than 12 years in Afghanistan, and in Libya we conducted joint air missions. Ongoing UAE-U.S. intelligence cooperation has disrupted illicit money and arms flows. And joint naval and air operations maintain freedom of navigation in the Gulf.

U.S. relationships in the Middle East, of course, are rooted in more than just shared security interests. There are ever stronger cultural and commercial ties. In 2013, Gulf states imported more than $50 billion in U.S. goods and services, and they have hundreds of billions of dollars invested in America. U.S. universities and cultural and medical institutions such as New York University, the Cleveland Clinic, and the Guggenheim have outposts throughout the region. And tens of thousands of our students are attending colleges throughout the United States.

In short, there is a lot that binds us together. And we have to continue to count on each other to meet the challenges and opportunities ahead in what is still the most dangerous of neighborhoods. As friends and allies, we may not agree on every issue or every tactic, but there are urgent initiatives that we can work on together that set the stage now for more positive developments later. These include: cooperating on an economic stabilization plan for Egypt, shutting down money flows to the extremist opposition in Syria, building governance capacity in Libya, and joint planning for the "day after" the Iran talks conclude -- deal or no deal.

When Obama visits, the president will be reminded that in the Gulf we still see the United States as an irreplaceable pillar of regional security. With unsteady neighbors, expansionist dreamers, and violent nonstate actors all around us, we cannot go it alone. We need friends; and no friend is more important to us than Washington.

In turn, the United States should know that we are eager and willing to contribute to our collective security interests. While the talk out of Washington continues about a "pivot to Asia," U.S. energy independence, and new budget priorities, very few in the Middle East truly believe the U.S. commitment is waning. Even so, it is important for the president to reaffirm America's sustained commitment to the region during his visit.

Yet we are realistic--all partnerships must adapt with the times. But we also know that the vital interests that connect us--the threat of aggression and terrorism, the benefits of trade and commerce, the values of peace and moderation--remain as strong today as ever before.

Approximately 30 participants attended from European institutions, diplomatic missions, the media and academia. Dr. Sajjadpour outlined the basics of Iran’s foreign policy, its conceptual framework, its continuity as well as new elements, and the apparent readiness of the Rouhani government to engage proactively with others in what is a very dynamic international environment. The Q&A segment focused on global and regional issues, as well as on the domestic background of Iran’s foreign policy. Parliamentary elections will be in 2015. Dr. Sajjadpour confirmed that progress on nuclear issues is a priority for Iran, and that his country will continue to be a regional power defending its security interests.  He also outlined recent positive developments in Iran’s relationships within the region.   

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