Middle East & North Africa

ISIS has succeeded in developing enhanced methods of communicating their ideology and propaganda to appeal to thousands of youths from the around the world in an effort to recruit them to fight for ISIS in Syria and Iraq.

The conference, organized by the EastWest Institute in cooperation with the Hollings Center for International Dialogue, featured experts in policy, theology, deradicalization and counterterrorism practice, and social media from the Middle East, North Africa, Europe, and the U.S. Participants analyzed and debated tools and methods used for recruiting and disseminating propaganda and messaging by extremist groups, the role of religious institutions, past and present deradicalization efforts, and the conditions and challenges to crafting a successful and appealing counter-narrative to ISIS’s ideological propaganda.

The conference was followed by a public panel debate at Kadir Has University entitled “Key Strategies in Countering Extremism: Experiences from the MENA Region and Pakistan.” EWI’s Vice President for Regional Security, Amb. Martin Fleischer gave opening remarks and supporting comments were provided by Manal Omar, Vice President at United States Institute of Peace, and Shafqat Mehmood, Founder and Chairman of PAIMAN Trust Alumni. The Discussion was moderated by Serhat Güvenç, Deputy Dean of the Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences at Kadir Has University.

*A comprehensive report will follow in the next days. 

Photographer: Ulaş Tosun

In the terrorist attack last week that took the lives of 21 people, most foreign tourists, at the National Bardo Museum, Tunisia itself was under attack. And it will remain so because it is a secular democracy in an Arab world that is not democratic and, with the exception of Lebanon’s power-sharing arrangements, has never known democracy.

Responsibility for the outrage was claimed by the Islamic State, although officials have identified a cell of militants with various allegiances, including the local Salafist extremist group Ansar al Shariah. The Arab world is reeling from an unprecedented wave of Islamic extremism, in part financed by sympathizers in oil-rich Persian Gulf states and unfortunately exacerbated by America’s “war on terror.” The West must now decide whether the young Tunisian democracy is worth saving.

From Iraq to Libya, and Syria to Yemen, the status of democracy in the region is a catastrophe. Even Egypt has reverted to its authoritarian ways. Today, those in the region who have survived the mayhem yearn for a more stable Middle East, for a chance to find their way and fulfill the destinies of their peoples.

Bold action, by the United States in particular, could make a significant difference. If the West perceives Tunisia as a new light in the otherwise dark Arab political sphere, it might help the country stand up to extremist assaults. But if it chooses merely to pay lip service to Tunisia’s achievements, the risk is that the newly elected government may fail. The consequences of this choice are grave.

The Obama administration and the United States Congress have an opportunity to amend future historians’ judgments of America’s misguided interventions in the Middle East by coming to the aid of the one success story of the period. And Tunisia’s political achievements are all the more important because they are not the product of American armed intervention.

The country’s secular democracy owes much to cultural factors: the peaceful character of its people, their middle-class culture, respect for women’s equality, regard for education, moderate practice of Islam and social tolerance. Unfortunately for the hopes of many at the outset of the Arab Spring, these preconditions for democracy simply did not exist in the rest of the Arab world.

In January 2014, just three years after Mohamed Bouazizi immolated himself — an act that incited the Tunisian revolution, ending 23 years of dictatorship — the transitional assembly adopted the new Constitution. Islamists held a majority of seats until the elections last fall. But the secular opposition successfully resisted the push of the Islamist party, Ennahda, toward theocracy and Shariah law. Tunisia’s recent presidential elections were universally applauded for their transparency, fairness and civility. In January of this year, President Beji Caid Essebsi pledged to respect and defend the new secular Constitution.

The Islamist terrorists who struck weeks later at the Bardo Museum could not accept or even fathom such a bright future. Tunisia’s success as a democracy is incompatible with their perverse, absolutist, almost nihilistic interpretation of Islam. They will not cease until Tunisia declares its allegiance to an archaic form of Islam incompatible with Enlightenment principles — what my Sorbonne professor, the French philosopher Paul Ricoeur, called the “hermeneutics of suspicion,” the interpretive power of critical reason applied to our beliefs and our texts.

How can the United States come to Tunisia’s assistance in its hour of need? President Obama’s recent phone call to Mr. Essebsi was appreciated, but words of sympathy are surely far less than the moment requires. To convey a stronger message, America’s president should schedule an early visit to the country, address its newly elected Parliament and let Tunisians know that they are, from now on, among the strategic allies of the United States on the basis of shared democratic values and interests.

Congress should, for its part, promptly issue an invitation to Mr. Essebsi to address a joint session of the legislature upon his first official visit to the United States. Congress should also offer a far more significant package of economic, military and financial assistance than the present $61 million appropriation for Tunisia, particularly since the country’s tourism industry, which accounts for about 15 percent of the country’s economy, will certainly be affected by the museum attack.

Tunisia only recently emerged from four years of financial mismanagement by the Ennahda-led transitional government. A donor conference, including other major Western countries, would provide the setting for an effective response to Tunisia’s economic needs. Tunisia needs more than symbolic gestures to combat Salafist terrorists determined to cripple the Tunisian economy by frightening off Western tourists and investors.

Tunisia’s security sector is also vulnerable and in need of support, including more modern military equipment and intelligence-gathering tools. The government has to contend not only with a 300-mile border with a chaotic, post-Qaddafi Libya (a huge arms bazaar for Islamist terrorists of all stripes), but also with as many as 500 returning Islamic State fighters who must be prevented from launching further attacks like the one at the Bardo Museum. Effective exchange of information between the American intelligence community and the Tunisian security apparatus should be mandated by Congress.

Cooperation on security should extend to NATO countries, too. It is clear that Islamic State-inspired jihadists are aiming at Europe no less than at Tunisia, with the Mediterranean region serving as shelter for a new breed of terrorists who can easily disappear among the local populations. It is estimated that about 2,500 susceptible, misinformed Tunisians are fighting in the ranks of the Islamic State. They, too, might one day return and spread havoc.

Why wait for another Bardo tragedy to deal with this threat? There is as much at stake for the West in the attack at Tunis last week as there was at Paris in January: It is the same fight.

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To read the article at the New York Times, click here. 

Creighton emphasized that a comprehensive strategy is required to combat the terrorist group, and maintained that the U.S. must take a leadership role in the fight.

To watch the video on the Arise News Youtube Channel, click here.

Vice President and Director of Regional Security Ambassador Martin Fleischer presented EWI’s activities in the region, introducing a keynote speech by Ambassador Miroslav Jenča, Special Representative of the UN Secretary-General for Central Asia and head of the United Nations Regional Centre for Preventive Diplomacy for Central Asia (UNRCCA). The high-level event was enriched by comments from Mr. James Appathurai, Deputy Assistant Secretary General for Political Affairs and Security Policy, and Secretary General’s Special Representative for the Caucasus and Central Asia, NATO; H.E. Mr. Homayoun Tandar, Ambassador of Afghanistan to the European Union, Belgium and Luxembourg; and H.E. Mr. Rustamjon Soliev, Ambassador of Tajikistan to the European Union, Belgium and Luxembourg. The roundtable discussion was moderated by Mr. Christian Forstner, head of the Hanns Seidel Foundation’s Brussels Center.

Ambassador Fleischer outlined the prospects for stability and cooperation in Afghanistan and Central Asia, presenting the steps taken by EWI’s Afghanistan Reconnected Process. This initiative aims at forging regional economic cooperation to minimize the economic impact of security transition in Afghanistan in the years to come, by engaging governments, Members of Parliament and private-sector leaders from the region. The Afghanistan Reconnected Process has identified energy trade and transit, cross-border trade facilitation and investment in regional transport infrastructure as most urgent areas of cooperation that can contribute to enhanced cooperation and economic security in the region. In 2015, EWI will undertake comprehensive regional advocacy and outreach missions for the implementation of the priority measures identified, with the private sector as main driver of the economic cooperation agenda.

While recognizing the value of EWI’s initiatives in the region, Ambassador Jenča acknowledged the increasing complexity of Central Asia and the need for more regional cooperation, in the interest of stability. The situation is not only related to the completion of NATO’s combat mandate in Afghanistan, the withdrawal of troops and the potential security implications on Central Asia, but also to other regional and broader challenges. In particular, the presence of Central Asian foreign fighters in the Middle East, the crisis in Ukraine, the falling ruble and prices of oil and gas, as well as the decreasing remittances of labor migrants from Central Asia in Russia also had a significant impact on the region and its stability.

Beyond the issue of regional cooperation, Ambassador Jenča wondered if countries of the region truly identified with Central Asia as a region. The lack of regional structures, limited cooperation, communication, transport links and cross-border trade, which stagnates at about 6 percent of total trade in each country, seem to suggest that this is not the case. The slow progress of the CASA 1000 and TAPI projects exemplify the skepticism encountered by cross-border initiatives, which require further stability and international community involvement to succeed.

At the same time, Ambassador Jenča mentioned that the main challenges and obstacles to stability often lie within Central Asian states. The succession of political leaders, socio-economic problems, marginalization, shortcomings in the rule of law, religious extremism, inter-ethnic tensions and organized crime are issues which need to be addressed by the countries in the region in particular through preventive efforts, which UNRCCA promotes. Moreover, the more stable, democratic and prosperous the countries will become, the more resistant they will be to external threats.

Despite the risks and threats faced by the region, Ambassador Jenča stressed that Central Asian states had made continuous progress in the past 20 years and had managed to keep the region stable. In this respect the international community needs to build upon and sustain the developments achieved in the region. As Central Asian states continue to diversify their foreign policy and partners to face increasing challenges, the EU has the opportunity to become an even more attractive partner in the region, and may consider more targeted support to Central Asia.

The ensuing discussion referred to the challenges posed to the region by unresolved border disputes, tensions over the use of common water resources and energy needs, marginalization and human rights questions, drug trafficking, terrorism and other forms of organized crime. Such trends continue to undermine regional stability and require concerted efforts by all countries of Central Asia to develop effective responses.

The regional dimension of the threat of violent extremism was strongly remarked, in light of the possible return of over 2,000 fighters from the region who joined the IS insurgency in Iraq and Syria. In addition, Ambassador Soliev noted that IS has announced future actions in Pakistan and Afghanistan, raising the level of alert of neighboring countries. A recent meeting of deputy foreign ministers from the region has discussed the issue at length in Ashgabat, Turkmenistan.

In addition, developments in Afghanistan are affecting security in Central Asia as a whole, as there is a potential threat of terrorist and extremist actions related to lesser control over the Afghan territory after the withdrawal of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF). In this respect, Ambassador Tandar stressed the key role of Afghanistan, which he described as “The Shield of Central Asia” in the fight against terrorism.

Speakers agreed that ISAF and the international community have not successfully addressed narco-trafficking stemming from Afghanistan during ISAF’s mandate, and that it is having an impact outside the country’s borders, feeding organized crime in the region and beyond. As the NATO presence decreases, poppy cultivation is increasing—as forecasted by UNODC, whose regional program on the topic is coming to an end. These developments may exacerbate the already fragile security situation in the region. Further commitment is therefore required from the international community. NATO is available to provide support to Central Asia in relation to narco-trafficking, as well as in the field of border control and transit through training and mapping exercises. However, its involvement should not be seen as part of a zero-sum game by other influential actors in the region, as it will not be embedded in a political agenda.

It was also mentioned that Central Asian states can play a more important role in stabilizing Afghanistan, using their comparative advantages of geographical proximity, cultural similarities, and potential for mutually beneficial regional cooperation. Countries in the region are already involved in Afghanistan’s energy, infrastructure, transport and capacity building, but further engagement is necessary. These countries, however, need to be supported by the international community in order to harvest the fruits of regional cooperation. In particular, Afghanistan needs to be better engaged in regional processes and relevant regional initiatives. At this critical time, international support for concrete projects is needed more than ever.

Speakers agreed that Central Asian states feel they need to survive between two powerhouses: Russia and China. The former’s influence in security and politics is great, and the latter’s economic clout is growing continuously.  This often puts countries in the region in front of difficult choices. For example, Ambassador Jenča referred to Kyrgyzstan’s decision to join the Eurasian Economic Union, as well as China’s pledge of 3 billion dollars for projects in the region, through its Silk Road Initiative. Central Asian states are strengthening ties with these partners, while others’ commitments to the region have been less consistent. In particular, the US’ interests in the region remain unclear, while the EU needs to show itself as a more appealing partner, beyond its ongoing engagement in the area.

Particular attention was paid to the EU’s involvement in Central Asia, thanks to the contribution of Members of European Parliament Dorfmann and Zeller from the audience. More specifically, they highlighted how the EU is lagging behind Russia and China in the establishment of its priorities in the region. After the launch of the EU Strategy for Central Asia in 2007, its role was largely neglected until the current Latvian EU Presidency, which has committed to producing a more focused updated strategy by the summer. The EU has nonetheless expanded its assistance to Central Asia, and the European Parliament has been supporting the region’s path towards democracy. Moreover, Ambassador Soliev reminded the audience about the upcoming EU-Central Asia High-level Security Dialogue, to be held on March 11, 2015, in Dushanbe, Tajikistan.

Ambassador Jenča stressed fostering cooperation and establishing partnerships as fundamental factors for advancements in the region. In particular, he recognized the commitments in this direction made by Afghanistan’s President Ashraf Ghani, who, since his inauguration has conducted numerous international missions aimed at strengthening ties with neighboring countries. Moreover, looking at the region as a whole, Ambassador Jenča concluded that cooperation between states in the region is an absolute priority for stability, and that the implementation of national reforms is key.

In this sense, in the margins of the conference, the UNSRSG and EWI formed a partnership for the final and critical phase of the Afghanistan Reconnected Process, aiming at advocating for reforms with governments in the region. By sharing the policy recommendations developed by business leaders from Central Asia and neighboring countries with concerned national administrations, the initiative will promote and support change towards enhanced economic cooperation and stability for the region.