Middle East & North Africa

Former UNDP Director Khalid Malik Exposes Roots of Violent Extremism

As part of its Speaker Series on January 28, EWI’s New York office featured Khalid Malik, who spoke on the sources of violent extremism, in light of the rise of ISIS in Iraq and the attack on Charlie Hebdo in Paris earlier this month. 

Malik is the former director of the Human Development Report Office at the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). His professional experience in development economics and implementing related programs brought a unique perspective to his presentation, which was followed by a lively question-and-answer session.

Utilizing development data and anecdotes from his time at the UNDP, Malik described how economic inequality, social stratification and uneven access to services drive otherwise peaceful people to ideological extremism and violence.

According to Malik, three important and interrelated forces that push people towards violent extremism are “exclusion, climate change and job insecurity.”

The international community needs to be more “inclusive of other perspectives and increase understanding, in order to implement more effective development policies,” said Malik. Not doing so, he said, has led to inefficient allocation of aid and pushed many in Iraq and Afghanistan, for example, toward violent extremism.

When discussing the impact of climate change on religious extremism, Malik pointed to the Syrian conflict and a drought that began in 2002 that precipitated massive job shortage, ultimately serving as a trigger for the current conflict. Malik also tied climate change issues to conflicts in Mali, Niger and even the rise of Boko Haram in Nigeria.

Malik pointed out that 98 percent of the damage wrought by violent extremism occurs in developing countries. He also highlighted a study which found that 70 percent of young Taliban fighters had joined the group because it offered a rare steady job. Malik was careful to point out that job insecurity does not always lead to a rise in violent extremism, but is often a common feature of regions experiencing it.

When asked whether there were policies that do work to increase access to services and decrease inequality and stratification, Malik displayed some optimism.

“If we stop the flow of illicit money, educate the people and invest in job creation programs, we can see tremendous positive change.”

After The Paris Massacre, We Cannot Have Business As Usual

In Mail Today, EWI Fellow and former Indian Foreign Secretary Ambassador Kanwal Sibal discusses why the Charlie Hebdo attacks should serve as a wake-up call to all of us. 

The brutal killing in Paris of Charlie Hebdo journalists dramatises once again the deeply uncivilised nature of international terrorism motivated by religious beliefs. There is no excuse for killing cartoonists in cold blood, for drawings considered offensive by members of a particular religious community.

Those offended would have every right to condemn what is - in their eyes - grossly blasphemous. They could remonstrate with the publication and the concerned authorities, take legal action, caution against provocations that alienate religious communities. But for individuals to believe that it is their religious duty to kill the “blasphemers” and administer “justice” in any jurisdiction and outside any lawful process is deeply reprehensible. To rely on a religious text or injunction to legitimise such murderous conduct is indefensible. 

 

Contrast 

In Charlie Hebdo’s particular case, two incompatible social and legal norms and, more generally, radically different ways of thinking are at play. From one perspective, freedom of thought is unconstrained by religious injunctions, the principle of freedom of speech is constitutionally guaranteed, and politics is freed from limits imposed by religious texts.In many ways the modern and the medieval are in contrast. The abnormal element is that the terrorists are French citizens, born and raised in the democratic culture and freedoms of this European country and exposed to its social norms. That they should have lived nonetheless within their medieval religious ghettos of thought, so alienated from their liberal environment and so much under the influence of bigoted Islamists in the distant Arabian peninsula, is remarkable. 

To link this slaughter – even while condemning it – to the backlash of the West’s war on terror is to half justify it. The moment we try to rationalise unspeakable acts, they become no longer totally condemnable.Yes, the West has militarily intervened in Islamic countries, forced regime changes there and destroyed whole societies in the name of democracy and human rights, angering many in the Islamic world.But then, several Arab states backed the elimination of Saddam Hussein and Muammar Gaddafi, and – Turkey included – support the ouster of Syria’s Hafez Assad. Today, key Gulf countries and Jordan have joined the West in air operations against the Islamic State (IS), besides taking counter-terrorism measures against the Al Qaeda in alignment the West’s war on terror. Egypt, in turn, seems determined to decimate the Muslim Brotherhood. Many Arab states have below the radar understandings with Israel and play tactical politics with the Palestinian issue. 

On the other hand, Saudi Arabia radiates the most fundamentalist Wahhabi ideology, one providing the religious compass for the kind of vengeance exacted against Charlie Hebdo. 

 

Complicit 

With Qatar and the UAE also complicit in expanding the hold of this extremist ideology over Muslim masses across the world, it becomes that much more difficult to bring about reforms in the practice of Islam, “modernise” it by re-interpreting its texts in the light of today’s requirements and, crucially, removing religion as a source of political and social conflict between the Islamic world and others. To add to all the complexity underpinning Islamic radicalism, it is well to remember the close political compact between the US and Saudi Arabia. So, the notion that Islamic anger against the West for its war on terror caused the butchery in Paris should be treated in a nuanced manner. 

Most importantly, the Kouachi brothers did not justify their monstrous act of killing the cartoonists by invoking the excesses of the West’s war on terror, the thousands of casualties inflicted by military operations, and the ensuing internal lawlessness and violence, or the use of torture against prisoners and the like. In any case, it would not have made any sense if they had, because then Charlie Hebdo and its cartoonists would not have been the logical targets. For them the casus belli was almost primitively religious. They were specifically avenging the insults to their prophet by Charlie Hebdo - overlooking the “insults” the cartoonists had hurled in all directions, including at the Pope and the Jews – and announced triumphantly that, with its principal cartoonists dead, the magazine was finished.

 

Mobilisation 

The massive public mobilisation in France against the attack on Charlie Hebdo reveals the shock felt in the country. Europe has been stirred by the enormity of the act. It is not clear, however, what this wave of anguish is directed at. Is it to convey Europe will uphold the principle of freedom of expression undeterred by threats from would-be terrorists? Does this mean preserving the space for more “offensive” cartoons against the founder of Islam? The terrorists, in any case, are not raging against “freedom of expression” in general; their aim is to intimidate those who dare to “insult” their prophet. The impact of their action across Europe would have gratified them, as their agenda has got the attention they wanted. Catharsis apart, this public mobilisation will make sense only if the intolerant features of Islam and the sources which nourish Wahhabism/ Salafism are recognised and exposed. 

Unfortunately, political correctness and concerns about a backlash against the vast majority of peace-loving and law-abiding Muslims will dissuade this. The usual cliches will be mouthed that Islam is peace loving, no religion advocates the killing of innocents and that terror has no religion, providing the usual escape route from assuming the onerous responsibility for effective international action against the terrorist menace by both the victims of terror and those at the level of states, mosques and religious institutions that protect and propagate the kind of Islam that breeds such ideological violence. One fears that it will be business as usual once the shock subsides. 

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To read the original article at the Mail Today, click here

Violent Extremism: What’s Driving It?

Overview

Thursday, January 28, 2015 | 2:30 p.m. - 4:00 p.m.
EastWest Institute | 11 East 26th St., 20th Fl., New York, NY 10010

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Khalid Malik, former director of the Human Development Report Office of the United Nations Development Progamme (UNDP), will be addressing some of the factors that drive the violent extremism of ISIS, Al Qaeda and the various splinter groups that have grown in number, evident in the most recent terrorist attacks in France, which left 17 people dead and riveted worldwide attention.

Malik will discuss how a scarcity of resources like food and water, as well as development issues like jobs and education, are driving the appeal and recruitment of these groups. 

Khalid Malik, of Pakistan, served as special advisor with the UNDP Partnerships Bureau, after completing his assignment early last year as UN RC/RR China. Before that he was director of the UNDP Evaluation Office and UN Representative, UNRC/UNDP RR in Uzbekistan. Earlier, Malik held both positions in UNDP as senior economist in the Africa Bureau and programme management positions in Asia and in the Caribbean.

Prior to joining the United Nations System, Malik carried out research and teaching at Pembroke College, Oxford and at the Pakistan Institute of Development Economics in Islamabad. Malik did post-graduate research at Oxford University. He also holds an MA in Economics from Essex University, an MA in Economics from Cambridge University and a BA in Economics/Statistics from Punjab University.

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Women Political Leaders Gather in Rabat to Advance the WPS Agenda

EWI's Parliamentarians Network teams up with Women's Action for New Directions and the Konrad Adenauer Foundation in a conference to advance the role of women political leaders in peace and security 

In November, Women’s Action for New Directions (WAND) and the EastWest Institute’s Parliamentarians Network for Conflict Prevention (PN), in partnership with the Konrad Adenauer Foundation (Rabat), convened 18 female political leaders and legislators from the United States, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Egypt and Morocco for the conference “Advancing the Role of Women Political Leaders in Peace and Security.” 

“Bringing together women peacemakers in Morocco, land of tolerance, peace and diversity," said Loubna Amhaïr, member of the Moroccan House of Representatives as well as the Parliamentarians Network for Conflict Prevention, "links the west to the east on common issues and challenges about conflict prevention and peace management.”

In addition to internal working sessions in which participants shared experiences and identified common challenges, the conference included high-level policy meetings with the president of the Moroccan House of Representatives; the chairman of the Committee on Foreign Affairs, Islamic Affairs, Diaspora, Immigration and National Defense; the director of the Department of the United Nations and International Organizations in the Moroccan Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Cooperation; and the minister of Solidarity, Women, Family and Social Development.

Georgia State Senator and President of the Women Legislator's Lobby of WAND Nan Grogan Orrock stated that “the escalating violence and instability in parts of the Middle East lends new urgency to our efforts to convene women leaders in the region and from the U.S. We share views and build trust across national boundaries. We are resolved to act together on our shared commitment to strengthen the role of women across the globe in building sustainable peace."

Participants explored concrete ways to implement the principles of UN Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) 1325 on Women, Peace and Security and to sensitize policy and decision makers about its relevance. Committed to continue their coalition and further strengthen the role of women in peace and security, participants also discussed potential activities for 2015, when UNSCR 1325 will celebrate its 15th anniversary.

Click here to read the full report.

For more photos from the conference, see our album on flickr

Countering Violent Extremism: EWI Expert Roundtable Discusses Strategies to Counter ISIS in Iraq and Syria

The EastWest Institute’s Brussels Center hosted a two-day roundtable consultation on “Countering Violent Extremism in Iraq and Syria: A Regional Approach” on November 13-14, 2014. Senior policy makers, academics and experts from the Middle East and Europe met to develop policy recommendations for countering violent extremism and for initiating a political strategy to address the threat posed by the Islamic State in Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS). 

Participants in the first panel, titled: “A Regional Cooperation to Address the Threat of ISIS” underlined the joint opposition of all stakeholders towards ISIS’ spread and its brutality. Participants pointed that the vacuum of authority, governance, and leadership in both Syria and Iraq—as different as the situation in these two countries may be—allowed ISIS to establish its hold in the territory spanning the border between the two countries. The alienation and subsequent marginalization and exclusion of the Iraqi Sunni community, and the failure of regional and international actors to respond appropriately to the crisis in Syria, were identified as having further fueled the group’s rise.

The current airstrikes of the “Global Coalition against ISIL,” while containing the group’s expansion militarily, were seen as at most a short-term approach in the absence of a political process that  addresses the sectarian conflict in Iraq and the lack of  apolitical solution to end the civil war in Syria. Participants acknowledged the possible negative repercussions of a prolonged military campaign that will allow ISIS to mobilize additional forces and recruits and provide the group with a perceived legitimacy resulting from its direct confrontation with the West.

While it seems necessary to contain ISIS on the battlefield, participants emphasized the need to challenge the group on an ideological level, in order to prevent it from abusing religion for its own political and territorial aims. Participants also noted that ISIS’ idea of an Islamic State that provides an alternative to the current state order has proven popular with disenfranchised and marginalized youths in the region. Additionally, ISIS has also succeeded in attracting a growing number of recruits from Western countries—an issue that deserves further studies.

Participants highlighted the importance of exploiting the convergence of interest of all regional actors in defeating ISIS, as well as the necessity of bringing all regional actors to the table to contribute to a political process, including those who have a record of supporting radical movements. For that, it is essential to understand the individual security interests of the neighboring states involved and try to find common ground. 

Participants specifically addressed the role of Turkey, noting that the reluctance of Ankara to fight ISIS militarily stems from the understandable fear of further endangering Turkey and creating more enemies in the region. ISIS has already declared Istanbul as a target for attack. A lack of defined political objectives within the coalition, especially for a solution for Syrian conflict,is also keeping Turkey on the sidelines. Furthermore, the role of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in the fight against ISIS is alarming to Turkey, as it sees it acquiring weapons and expertise that the group could possibly use against the Turkish state.

The second panel, “Iran’s Foreign Policy and its Role in the Middle East,” reflected on the interests and goals that drive Iran’s policies in Iraq and Syria. The discussion emphasized that Iran is increasingly a rational actor with clear interests and objectives, regionally and internationally. ISIS presents a new challenge for Tehran, which threatens the territorial integrity of its ally in Baghdad and of the region as a whole.

Participants discussed Iran’s role in contributing to the current situation by having supported former Iraqi Prime Minister Maliki without pressuring him into adopting a more inclusive approach to governance. There was consensus that Tehran has now, however, taking a constructive role in supporting the new government of Haydar Al-Abadi, which is making strides in overcoming the sectarian divide. This influence that Iran exerts over Baghdad emphasizes the need to engage Iran in any joint regional political process aimed at countering ISIS. Participants highlighted Iran’s pragmatic current foreign policy, one that is not limited to groups or states with a particular religious belief.

Participants underlined that for Iran, the history of armed conflict with Iraq has made Iraq’s stability a foreign policy and a national security consideration of highest priority. Tehran also places a great importance on the holy Shia cites in the Iraqi cities of Najaf and Karbala and wants to ensure a secure environment that will allow Iranian pilgrims to freely visit.  

Participants accredited Iran’s efforts in denouncing violence and extremism by sponsoring the "World Against Violence and Violent Extremism” (WAVE) resolution in the UN General Assembly and hosting the WAVE Conference in Tehran in December 2014.

The discussion showcased the necessity of engaging Iran on a regional and international level. The influence Iran holds in Iraq and Syria, as well as the common interest of Iran, the United States, the EU and the Gulf States in wanting to defeat ISIS provides ample common ground for better regional cooperation.

Participants acknowledged that a permanent and satisfactory agreement, limiting Iran’s ability to produce a nuclear weapon, would allow for better cooperation between western countries, Arab states, and Iran to fight extremism and resolve other regional conflicts.

The third panel, “Europe, The EU, And Countering Violent Extremism: Internal and External Challenges,” involved representatives of various EU organs, and dealt with the current EU approach vis-à-vis the rise of ISIS, the cooperation with states in the region and the two-way flow of ISIS fighters.  

Participants acknowledged the unique threat that ISIS presents for the EU as it is the first instance a terrorist organization is in control of a substantial amount of territory in the vicinity of the European Union. Recent estimates show that 3,000 foreign fighters have traveled from Europe to join ISIS forces.

Participants highlighted the fact that European Union anti-terrorism efforts have been extended significantly both internally and externally. Increased measures have been put into effect, such as early identification of potential extremist individuals and the prevention of their travel. As the Internet is used as a major recruiting tool by ISIS aiming at European youths, EU coordination with Internet companies has increased, and more efforts are being made to detect suspicious travel to Syria and Iraq.

Participants urged that efforts by the EU must not come at the expense of human rights and civil liberties and that those measures should be coordinated with the countries of the region, in the form of intelligence sharing and through Intergovernmental Organizations like Interpol.

Participants acknowledged that Europe and the international community have to shoulder part of the blame for the rise of violent extremism, referring to inaction towards the crisis in Syria and the actions, and the unresolved nature of the Israel-Palestine conflict, which all contribute to the rise of extremism in the region.  The European Union and the international community must support a regional dialogue involving local communities with the aim to counter ISIS. 

The fourth session, “Security and Governance in a Fragile Environment: Lessons from Iraq 2003–2014,” pinpointed the failures that have been caused by domestic mismanagement and bad governance, and by the unhelpful role a number of regional and international actors played in Iraq since 2003.

Participants acknowledged that the time after the invasion of Iraq in 2003 brought with it an erosion of the Iraqi national identity and an exacerbation of sectarianism domestic tensions, triggering a process of re-tribalization and drastic weakening of a national identity. The subsequent Iraqi governments have failed to unite Iraqis and instead “clung to sect-centered elitism,” leading to great polarization and disenfranchisement, especially within the Iraqi Sunni population. Several factors led to the rise of ISIS: the lack of authority of the Iraqi central government in certain areas beyond the borders of Baghdad, especially in Sunni majority provinces; the amount of corruption in the Iraqi central governments machinery, coupled with the security vacuum left by the hasty withdrawal of US troops; and the general failure of the state.

Participants analyzed the role of the Iraqi central government under former Prime Minister Maliki, pointing out the fact that Maliki centralized power and weakened Iraq’s better working political institutions, politicized the armed forces for his own goals, and he subsequently ostracized opponents and local communities beyond Baghdad. These failures in governance, and not necessarily Sunni Iraqi’s affinity to the religious and ideological message of ISIS, led many to view the rise of ISIS as a rebellion against a government in Baghdad that they consider to be illegitimate.

RECOMMENDATIONS

Local and National

  1. Encourage inclusive governance and Sunni outreach in Iraq. A domestic political process in Iraq that addresses legitimate grievances of the Iraqi Sunni population, Kurds, and other Iraqi minorities is imperative to fight the root causes of the rise of extremist groups such as ISIS.
  2. Support reconciliation measurements in both Iraq and Syria.  With the enablement of the international community and regional actors, local reconciliation processes must be fostered, with the aim of finding a way forward for various parties to the conflict and crafting a unified agenda to countering extremist threats by groups like ISIS. The international community in that regard can provide logistics and know-how while leaving the local actors to take ownership of the process. (Regarding the need for political strategy for Syria see also section “International” below.)

Regional

  1. Foster an inclusive regional dialogue to address the threat of extremism. There needs to be an inclusive regional dialogue, including an inter-Arab and Arab-Iranian-Turkish dialogue to address the threat of extremist groups in the region. These talks should address broader geopolitical challenges in the region that are fuelling extremist ideology and ways for reducing tensions. Such a process would be most successful with international legitimacy and consensus, especially from the United States, the Permanent Members of the United Nations Security Council and the European Union.
  2. Challenge ISIS on the battlefield on ideas. The military campaign against ISIS must be complemented by challenging the group on an ideological level, in order to refute the ISIS philosophy, the violence it has perpetrated and halt its recruitment. Regional, especially Muslim, allies need to coordinate a global response to this ideology on university campuses, mosques, media outlets, the Internet, prisons, social media, and refugee camps.
  3. Explore the potential of cross-border Sunni dialogue. Regional Sunni partners in Jordan and the Gulf states should undertake outreach to the Sunni tribes in western Iraq in an effort to re-engineer a program similar to the Sons of Iraq program. Baghdad’s Sunni outreach can only be done effectively in cooperation with regional partners, particularly Saudi Arabia and Jordan. The United States and the international community should carefully weigh the risks and opportunities of providing military and non-military support to select tribes if they prove willing to counter ISIS.
  4. Increase intelligence sharing between regional and international actors. Although the United States has a wide range of networked relationships with key Middle East intelligence services, such as with Jordan, Turkey and Saudi-Arabia, the scope and speed of ISIS’s rise came as a surprise. Effective counterterrorism efforts throughout the Middle East require a target-oriented exchange of intelligence that goes beyond these established networks.

International

  1. Address humanitarian crises in the region.  The Syrian civil war has sparked one the greatest population exoduses in modern history, with more than 3 million Syrians fleeing to neighbouring countries. Inside Syria, some 6.5 million people are estimated to be displaced. The rise of ISIS has brought additional misery to minority groups in both Syria and Iraq. A coherent strategy must address how to protect minorities, alleviate the suffering of refugees, and help stabilize the countries most affected by their influx.
  2. Enable reliable and capable regional partners to take the fight directly to ISIS. The United States is providing the greatest support for forces fighting ISIS. NATO and other U.S. allies should together develop a strategy to help the region counter ISIS with technical support and military assistance. This should include specific commitments to provide support to the Iraqi government, Kurdish forces and third-way opposition alternatives to the Assad regime and ISIS in Syria. At the same time, lessons learnt in the past must be taken into account in order not to “nourish false friends”.
  3. Rebuild the regional and international foundations to mediate a solution to the Syrian conflict. Although peace talks in Geneva failed in early 2014, conditions should be set for a political transition in Syria. The international community should work to reinvigorate a regional contact group on the Syrian conflict to start building a foundation for new peace talks.
  4. Engage the United Nations Security Council to drain the financing sources of ISIS. The UNSC should establish a Sanctions Committee against ISIS, such as the one existent to implement sanctions against Al-Qaida and individuals affiliated with it and formerly against the Taliban. UNSC financial sanctions should be put in place against individuals and organizations providing or allowing direct support to ISIS.
  5. Enhance law enforcement and intelligence fusion efforts to identify and counter ISIS and other terrorist fighters holding Western passports. This should build on existing U.S.-European efforts in coordination with the International Criminal Police Organization (INTERPOL). More than 12,000 foreign fighters are estimated to have flocked to Iraq and Syria; the dangers of extremists coming home to continue the fight with acts of terrorism cannot be ignored. Western countries should partner with allies in the Middle East and local communities on counter-radicalization efforts.
  6. Engage local communities in counter-radicalization efforts. Local communities have an important role to play in counter-extremist and de-radicalization strategies in the West. Efforts should be made that counter-terrorism strategies do not further alienate and marginalize the already vulnerable elements of society who are often targets of recruitment by extremist groups.

EWI’s Martin Fleischer Speaks at First World Against Violence and Extremism (WAVE) Conference in Tehran

The EastWest Institute took part in the first conference on World Against Violence and Extremism (WAVE), held in Tehran, Iran, on December 9-10, 2014.

EWI’s Vice President for Regional Security Martin Fleischer spoke on the panel on Violence and Extremism in the Asian context, together with the deputy foreign ministers of Afghanistan, Tajikistan and Armenia.

Outlining EWI’s Afghanistan Reconnected initiative, which aims at stabilizing post-2014 Afghanistan and its neighbors through revitalizing the regional economy, Fleischer encouraged a more active Iranian participation in this process. On the challenge of politically countering the so-called Islamic State, he called for a regional dialogue which would include influential actors not present at this conference (alluding inter alia to Saudi Arabia) and offered EWI’s good services in that regard.

Ambassador Fleischer also gave an interview to Iranian state-TV IRINN, expressing the view that a major responsibility for countering Islamic State ideologically lies with Muslim communities both in the region and in Western countries. Asked for his assessment of the conference, he appreciated the Iranian WAVE initiative within the United Nations as a move towards Iran’s assuming its role as a responsible regional power that constructively engages with its neighbors and the international community.

High-level policy makers, including current and former heads of government, ministers, and parliamentarians from across the globe, but mainly from the Middle East, Asia, and Europe attended the conference. It was chaired by Foreign Minister of Iran, Mohammad Javad Zarif, and inaugurated by President Hassan Rohani.

The invitation to EWI was conveyed by the Institute for Political and International Studies, a think tank linked to the Foreign Ministry of Iran, in light of EWI’s work on Countering Violent Extremism and its outreach to and engagement of Iran on a regional security issues. The conference provided an opportunity for the institute to present the scope of its trust-building work, expand ties with Iranian officials and develop its network in the MENA region.

 

For more information on the WAVE, visit the conference website.

Haifa Al Kaylani Appointed to the Board of Directors at the Arab British Chamber of Commerce

EWI Board Member Haifa Fahoum Al Kaylani is the newest board member of the Arab British Chamber of Commerce (ABCC) in London, after being formally nominated by the Palestinian Chamber of Commerce on December 5th. Al Kaylani will look to help the ABCC continue to enhance Arab British trade and business ties, while also pushing to improve the economic and social environment in the Palestinian territories.

To read Al Kaylani's bio, click here.

Reconnecting Afghanistan

EWI Board Member Ikram Sehgal, in an article published in The Express Tribune, discusses the need for economic resurgence in Afghanistan. Sehgal highlights EWI's recent Istanbul conference, which encouraged businesses in South and Central Asia to take necessary initiatives to unlock trade and kick-start the war-ravaged Afghan economy.

The lack of economic opportunities for the populace in Afghanistan is a major impediment to peace and stability. Without an adequate industrial base and/or agriculture infrastructure, guns-for-hire in abundance as a means to finding income is neither conducive for foreign direct investment nor for domestic entrepreneurial initiatives. That a small elite cabal with fixed mindsets returned after the fall of the Taliban to occupy seats of power in Kabul, does not help.

Economic resurgence for land-locked countries requires facilitating trade to and through their territory.  The EastWest Institute (EWI), a New York-based leading US think tank, headed by Ross Perot Junior, initiated the “Abu Dhabi Process” — a cross-border trade dialogue co-funded by Abu Dhabi and Germany — between Afghanistan and the countries on its periphery. Hosted by the EWI, the recent Istanbul conference encouraged businesses in South and Central Asia to themselves take necessary initiatives to unlock trade and kick-start the war-ravaged Afghan economy.

For the short-term, the recommended ways forward included: a) a regional business council comprising influential business leaders from Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, Iran, CARs, Turkey and Iran; b) one-window custom clearance systems by Afghanistan and improved border sources at Torghundi, Hairatan, Torkham, Chaman, Wagah and Sher Khan Bandar and other border points to reduce time and cost of crossing; c) a generous visa regime to enable businesses to move around easily (under Saarc for the short-term and the Economic Cooperation Organisation for the long-term); d) regional entrepreneurship exchange programmes to promote trade and investment opportunities.

The mid-term recommendations included: a) a unified transaction mechanism system and a regional banking framework; b) standardising the Afghan tax structure to entice business investment; and c) a free trade zone Fata. The long-term recommendations were: a) a regional infrastructure trust fund, with India, Turkey, China, Russia, Pakistan and Afghanistan as donors to invest in designing, developing and expanding transport means, such as railways; and b) the implementation of CASA-1000TAPI projects and other regional energy projects (without mention by name of the Iran-Pakistan (IP) gas pipeline). The threat of US sanctions remain, and while Pakistan has no intention of bucking that, the Iranian portion is in place at the border at two places, 70 kilometres from Gwadar and 250 kilometres to connect into the extensive Pakistani gas pipeline infrastructure, with planned connections into Fata and Swat.

Recent significant and symbolic events confirm that Ashraf Ghani is a game-changer in the context of the Pakistan-Afghanistan relationship.  To quote a recent article of mine,Throwing aside diplomatic norms, the Afghanistan’s President visited GHQ immediately after landing at Islamabad. A foreign Head of State heading straight towards a military HQ on arrival carries a lot more than ceremonial importance, the Afghan President means business because he well understands where the real power concerning national security rests. Ashraf Ghani described his discussions later with the Pakistani PM as ‘a shared vision to serve as the heart of Asia, ensuring economic integration by enhancing connectivity between South and Central Asia through energy, gas and oil pipelines becoming a reality and not remaining a dream. The narrative for the future must include the most neglected of our people to become stakeholders in a prosperous economy in stable and peaceful countries, our faiths are linked because terror knows no boundaries. We have overcome obstacles of 13 years in three days, we will not permit the past to destroy the future’.” How will the Afghan president overcome the ‘hate Pakistan’ mindset of a few Kabul diehards, some of these ingrates even born and educated in Pakistan, who must even now be conspiring to cut him down to size?

That the future would not be held hostage by the past was symbolised by the US repatriating (with Afghan consent) Latif Mehsud along with two other militant commanders from Bagram into Pakistani custody. In another one of my articles, I had said, “The capture of the senior leader of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Hakeemullah Mehsud’s No 2, by US Special Forces represents the ‘smoking gun’ about the Afghan regime’s sustained involvement in terrorism in Pakistan. In the company of the Afghan National Directorate of Security (NDS) agents taking their prized asset to Kabul to meet senior government officials, Latif Mehsud was simultaneously on the American ‘most wanted list’. India’s RAW is using the NDS as a proxy to sustain and support the TTP’s brutal campaign within Pakistan. To its credit, despite Karzai’s fury at the US for his capture (Daily Telegraph, October 13, 2013), this cut no ice with the US, and it signalled that as its enemy, Latif Mehsud would remain in its custody.” The act of handing over this terrorist is a confidence-building measure that will reduce the trust deficit and build on the excellent fast developing working relationship.

Realpolitik is the product of cold, calculated pragmatism based on economics. Afghanistan will make billions of dollars from system-collected royalties from the Central Asian Corridor passing through its geographical location. Without a continuous flow of gas and power, economic resurgence in Pakistan will remain moribund. The EWI’s Abu Dhabi Process emphasises that the entire region stands to gain exponentially from constructive trade and commerce engagement.

Afghanistan has finally found its man of destiny in Ghani. How long before a leader in Pakistan rises above selfishness and greed for the sake of the country? 

Martin Fleischer Discusses ISIS and Extremism at European Parliament

Ambassador Martin Fleischer, EWI Vice President of Regional Security and Director of its Brussels office, discusses ISIS and the rise of extremism during the Kangaroo Group Lunch Debate held at the European Parliament on November 11. 

See full transcript, below. 

Syria and the Fight Against ISIS

A contribution by Ambassador Martin Fleischer
The EastWest Institute

 

It’s an honor for EWI to contribute—in the framework of the Kangaroo Group’s working group on space, security and defense—to the esteemed members of the European Parliaments’ deliberation on the challenges posed by the rise of ISIS.

EWI has a long record of work in the Middle East and on issues such as violent extremism, especially with its seminal publication Countering Violent Extremism: Lessons from the Abrahamic Faith. In fact, EWI’s work between East and West began in the early 1980s with its late founder John Edwin Mroz’s Track 2 negotiations between Yasser Arafat and the Reagan administration.

Nowadays, EWI’s Parliamentarian Network for Conflict Prevention, of which MEP Gahler and Gomes are members, engages increasingly in the Middle East, with a conference planned for next week in Rabat, Morocco, bringing together parliamentarians from the United States and the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region on finding common ways to advance the role of women political leaders in peace and security issues.

On the issue of ISIS:

The Islamic State in Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS), which renamed itself the Islamic State (IS) earlier this year, has eroded the borders of both Iraq and Syria, and represents an immediate and significant threat to the surrounding region. ISIS also represents an evolving threat to Europe, the United States and global security in the form of international terrorism enabled by the group’s thousands of foreign fighters and its abundance of cash and military resources.

The seriousness of the ISIS-issue is, to take an example from my home country, demonstrated by the recent decision of the German government to deliver arms to the Kurdish Peshmerga—a rupture with one of the basic principles of German foreign and security policy, i.e. not to export military equipment to zones of armed conflict.

An environment of chaos and great suffering has allowed ISIS to emerge. The civil war in Syria, now in its fourth year, has created on of the largest humanitarian crisis the world has faced in decades. Some 9 million Syrians have fled their homes, and 3 million are now refugees, making them the world’s largest refugee population and placing a tremendous burden on neighboring countries, such as Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey.

In the absence of support from the international community in the face of Assad’s brutal tactics, disaffected Sunni Arabs—even those who do not necessarily share its ideology—embraced ISIS as the answer to what they perceived as Shi’a repression. In Iraq, the Sunni Muslim minority's frustration with the government of former Prime Minister Maliki has provided a fertile ground for the proliferation of the extremist group. Despite major differences in the conflicts in both countries, both Iraq and Syria provided two major ingredients for the growth of violent extremism: suffering and frustration of the population on the one hand, and the lack of effective, legitimate governance on the other.

EWI sees five fields of action where the international community could make a difference in countering the threat of ISIS:

  1. Forging an inclusive political alliance for a political solution in Syria—inclusive means with Iran and with Russia. That may sound ambitious or even illusory, seeing these countries’ support for Assad. But let me recall the Kosovo conflict where EU and G8, under the German presidency, finally succeeded to get Russia back into the boat and de-block the UN Security Council. And Iran sends willing signals to take a more responsible role in security matters, such as its recent tabling of the UN resolution “world against violence and extremism.” EWI undertakes outreach to Iran, encouraging it to constructively work toward regional security, e.g. of Afghanistan (by the way, the danger is real that post 2014-Afghanistan could face similar challenges as Iraq after the withdrawal of foreign troops).
  2. Combating ISIS propaganda and messaging: a combination of theology and political ideology makes ISIS relevant, different and in a position to offer a message that resonates with frustrated youth. The U.S., EU and regional, especially Muslim, allies need to coordinate a global response to this ideology on university campuses, mosques, media outlets, the Internet, prisons, social media and refugee camps.
  3. Impeding the flow of foreign fighters joining ISIS: Over 12,000 foreign fighters from around the world are fighting with Sunni extremist groups in the now contiguous territories that span from Syria to Western and Northern Iraq. Of those, approximately 3,000 are foreign fighters with Western passports who are gaining valuable battlefield experience. Additional creativity, persistence and planning are needed in transit and home countries to counter this threat.
  4. Stopping ISIS financing and funding: ISIS’ principal sources of finance are derived from its control and sale of oil, kidnap for ransom, extortion networks, criminal activities and donations from external individuals. There is a need for a unified strategy focused on disrupting ISIS revenue streams, restricting ISIS access to the international financial system and targeting ISIS leaders, facilitators and supporters with sanctions. Here again, the UN would be not be the easiest but the most effective framework.
  5. Addressing humanitarian crises in the region: The Syrian civil war has sparked one of the greatest population exoduses in modern history, with more than 3 million Syrians fleeing to neighboring countries. Inside Syria, some 6.5 million people are estimated to be displaced. The rise of ISIS has brought additional misery to minority groups in both Syria and Iraq. A coherent donor strategy must address how to protect minorities, alleviate the suffering of refugees and help stabilize the countries most affected by their influx.

All these issues can only be successfully addressed through an internationally agreed political strategy and, as indicated above, only with the backing both by countries of the region and by the UN Security Council. Seeing that Russia and China have their own problems with certain (though differently defined) kinds of violent extremism, it will be difficult and challenging, but not impossible to find common ground. The rise of ISIS may come in handy for some countries’ short-term interests, but in the long run it presents a threat to everybody.

The text above is a transcript, edited by Raymond Karam, of Mr. Fleischer’s contribution to the Kangaroo Group Lunch Debate on November 11, 2014, held in the European Parliament.

For more analysis of the Islamic State, read EWI Professorial Fellow Greg Austin's piece in New Europe

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