Ikram Sehgal

"An autonomous authority must be set up for regulating and monitoring an industry that has grown phenomenally without commensurate and meaningful checks and balances," says Sehgal. Read the full piece here on The News International. 

Photo Credit: Benny Lin

The major problem facing this country is the vacillation of the government in dealing decisively with terrorists because of a fear of blowback in the urban areas if there is any major counter-insurgency operation in the mountains. The other reason is that some terrorists groups in Punjab have loose links with influential political elements. They not only fear their presence in their constituencies but depend upon them for their electability. 

Both assumptions are only partially correct. Terrorist sleeper cells in the urban areas can cause both human and material damage. With the counter-insurgency operations being successful, this capacity has diminished considerably and will be further depleted when our troops go into North Waziristan. 

While blowback is a distinct possibility, the extent of collateral damage will not be in keeping with the claim of the TTP. This canard is only force-multiplied in the public mind by their supporters and apologists who have good media access. No civilised society can allow such abhorrent people, who foment anarchy just to create sensation and increase their coverage in the media. 

The TTP is keen for a ceasefire now because it has suffered considerable damage by the PAF’s precision hits, not only in North Waziristan but in Mohmand and other adjacent districts as well. The TTP’s rank and file do not possess equipment for snow warfare. While they can operate for a short time above the snow line, it is impossible for them to maintain hideouts in the snowy heights. 

Until the snow melts in late April, the TTP will have to find hideouts in the valleys. There is a window of opportunity here where the militants are vulnerable to both air and ground interdiction. During spring and summer, they have numerous hiding places in the mountains to operate from. To compound their problems the precise nature of the attacks has unveiled two important facts: (1) the TTP has been infiltrated across the board by ISI operatives and (2) these operatives had the capacity to pass on information as ‘actionable intelligence’. 

The TTP, therefore, desperately needs time to regroup. There is no surety that in the valleys it will not again be hit by the PAF, or more likely face a ground offensive by the Pakistan Army. While on the surface its spokesmen, and those helping it, maintain their charade of bravado, the TTP has been sending desperate signals through back channels seeking a temporary ceasefire. This has also been conveyed through intermediaries among the tribals who are not actively engaged against the government.

Contrary to the perception given to the public, but now expressed by the TTP’s inability to rein in its recalcitrant elements, both within its ranks and those that give it lip-service mandate, there is active infighting going on between some TTP factions. They vehemently disagree with each other about the conduct of the future war against the state in attempting to overthrow the present system of government and replace it with their model of a Shariah-complaint one. 

Fazlullah has only lip-service dominance over the TTP; the Mehsuds mostly hate him. Moreover the displaced tribals that are not part of the TTP, particularly the Mehsuds, are aggrieved over being deprived of hearth and home. For the tribals it is not honourable to leave their homes and seek refuge elsewhere. Reports indicate they have been pressurising the militants to seek accommodation with the state so that they can return to their own tribal areas.

While the Afghan Taliban do not engage in or encourage any activity against Pakistan, they have an alliance of sorts with the TTP, mainly for the sake of convenience. The areas occupied by the TTP along the borders gives them depth and sanctuary. Because of the army’s successful CI operations, they feel the effect because their sanctuaries and bases are being denied to them. For them to maintain these in Pakistan has been a dire necessity. 

Moreover, most religious militant groups in Pakistan send their fresh recruits for a few weeks into Afghanistan to gain battlefield experience. This manpower induction, even for a short time, is invaluable support for the Afghan Taliban. These battle-trained, if not battle-hardened, TTP personnel return to their various original militant outfits. The Afghan Taliban are pressing the TTP to somehow keep the peace with the Pakistan Army till the end of the year when they expect most (and maybe all) the coalition troops to leave. 

The government must get its act together. More importantly, it must capitalise on the partial awakening of Imran Khan in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The PTI leader recognises now that there are TTP factions that will never stop acting against the state and society, and is now advocating a selective approach, targeting only those who show no inclination for peace. The misplaced perception in the mindset of the PTI rank and file that the TTP really wants peace has evaporated. However, some heavyweights in Imran’s media cell remain unguided missiles, causing him and the party damage. 

The army and the ISI are on the same page. One major misperception being spread by TTP militants and enthusiastically espoused by some in the media is that there is a divide between the army and the ISI. This is sheer nonsense. The army has made huge sacrifices in the battlefield in a tremendous officer to men ratio (1:10-11).

Will those officers, some of whom who have done a stint in the ISI, support the jehadis inflicting great casualties among their own brethren engaged in CI operations? While the army is engaged in CI operations, the government could possibly give ISI the mandate, along with the legal cover it would need, to conduct counterterrorism (CT) operations in the urban areas. This they can do today with only limited budgeting support in contrast with the long lead time needed to activate Nacta and a rapid response force (RRF). 

Why is the government set on a course of seeking appeasement when the cacophony of pleas it is getting from backchannels confirms that the TTP is hurting badly, and has nowhere to go at present and in theimmediate future? One must leave room for negotiations, overt and/or covert. However, it is simplistic to suggest in the case of the TTP and its motivated supporters in society that you cannot both fight and talk at the same time. Talking can take precedence over action and sometimes fighting can come over negotiations, but one can both talk and fight. 

In the present circumstances where the opposition forces are not united and those that claim to represent them have only limited mandate for those engaged in terrorism (and pure criminal conduct) against the state, it is ridiculous to suggest a ceasefire when the other side knows very well that it cannot neither rein in nor restrain its disparate elements. And certainly not those giving it nominal lip-service mandate at best, or none at worst.

One cannot ignore terrorism for the sake of those with a perverted mindset. Fighting it is the government’s responsibility and should be its priority. One clear unambiguous message for our present rulers: ‘blowback’ is a challenge you have to take on. 

Photo Credit: martnpro
 

This is Davos week, the annual summit of the World Economic Forum (WEF). My first visit to Davos was in January 1993 as part of the delegation accompanying the then prime minister, Mian Nawaz Sharif. The WEF was then not that strict about allowing non-members to take part in its events.

This year the Pakistani PM was to grace the Pakistan Lunch, now counted as a significant traditional event in the Davos calendar. Unfortunately the Davos trip was cancelled at the last minute due to the vicious terrorist attack at Bannu. The disappointment notwithstanding, the prime intention being to project Pakistan, the traditional Pakistan Lunch at Davos will take place as scheduled.

Almost 50 Pakistanis will join the record 200 WEF members in the Steigenberger Belvedere. A panel of eminent experts, including Dr Ishrat Husain, will debate ‘Pakistan Vision 2025’.

Little did I know in 1993 that in a few months momentous changes would start taking place in Pakistan, most crises man-made. Terrorists are holding governance hostage, and the PM’s cancellation of the Davos trip has thrown this up. Rip Van Winkle woke up 20 years later to find the world to be a better place, but Pakistan is worse off than it was in 1993.

The tragedy is that the country was then set to break the shackles of nationalisation and emerge as a potent economic force. The most important thing for us today is not to let the future of our children become hostage to the vicious mindset of the terrorists.

Only a handful of Pakistani businessmen visit Davos regularly. In contrast over 125 Indian businessmen come as WEF members. In keeping with its exclusive nature the WEF only caters to the top companies of the world; the fee for being a corporate member is high. Husain Dawood, Atif Bukhari, Sultan Allana, Nauman Dar, and Arif Naqvi – Mian Mansha having dropped out—cannot shoulder the burden of projecting Pakistan by themselves. Emulating their Indian counterparts, our elite Pakistani community must use this unique opportunity in greater numbers. What one gets in networking in a week at Davos may not be possible in several years. The government may like to give tax rebates amounting to 50 percent of the WEF membership, annual summit and regional summit fees as an incentive.

The programme pillars for this year’s annual summit are: (1) achieving inclusive growth; (2) embracing disruptive innovation; (3) meeting society’s new expectations; and most importantly (4) sustaining a world of nine billion people. The WEF ‘Global Risks 2014 Report’ highlights these risks and seeks to understand how these are interconnected.

The gap between the incomes of the richest and the poorest needs to be tackled and the disparities in income and wealth have to be addressed. That is the risk most likely to cause global damage in the coming decade.

Compiled by contributions from 700 global experts, the report details ten risks that are “global risks of highest concern” for 2014: (1) fiscal crises in key economies; (2) structurally high unemployment/underemployment; (3) water crises; (4) severe income disparity; (5) failure of climate change mitigation and adaptation; (6) greater incidence of extreme weather events; (7) global governance failure; (8) food crises; (9) failure of a major financial mechanism/institution; and (10) profound political and social instability.

Before the recession, the buzzword was ‘globalisation’, which is now believed to be an unstable system prone to be disrupted by political tensions—leading to financial turmoil. Nations must not adopt a do-it-alone policy; coordinated policy responses were deemed essential. Environmental risks such as water crises, extreme weather events, natural catastrophes, man-made environmental catastrophes and climate change present another cluster in the interconnections map.

Among interlinked risks climate change is of pivotal importance. This displays by far the strongest linkages and is both a key economic risk in itself and a multiplier of other risks, such as extreme weather events, and water and food crises.

There is a dire warning of a ‘lost’ generation of young people coming of age in the 2000s lacking both jobs and, in some cases, adequate skills for work, thereby fuelling pent-up frustration. Unemployed youngsters also remain vulnerable to being sucked into criminal or extremist movements. The social upheaval could have catastrophic results as seen in some parts of the world recently.

Technology is a significant aspect of the employment landscape for young people—where the private sector can guide curriculum and training programme design by communicating about projected skills needs. Establishing partnerships with the education sector businesses can improve apprenticeship opportunities. Educational and civil society organisations can also prioritise entrepreneurship education, soft skills and earlier delivery of sector-relevant and professional skills in schools, all of which promote employability.

The increasing reliance on the internet to carry out essential tasks and the massive expansion of devices connected to it increases the risk of systematic failure even more. Recent revelations on government surveillance have dampened the international community’s willingness to work together to build governance models to address this weakness. The effect could be a ‘balkanisation’ of the internet, or ‘cybergeddon’ where hackers enjoy overwhelming superiority and massive disruption becomes an everyday occurrence.

While each risk holds potential for failure globally, their interconnected nature force-multiplies their catastrophic potential. To address and adapt to the ever-changing global ‘risks’, stakeholders must unite and take collaborative multi-stakeholder action. Businesses, governments and civil society can improve how they approach risk by taking steps such as opening lines of communication with each other to build trust, systematically learning from others’ experiences and finding ways to encourage long-term thinking.

President Hassan Rouhani of Iran is here in Davos and, though they will not meet, so is Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu. The presidents of half a dozen Latin American countries are joined by the Brazilian president. US Secretary of State John Kerry will represent the US. Davos highlights a wide range of disparate subjects, debated and discussed by eminent experts during the week. 

The Pakistani PM will miss a unique opportunity to clarify the world’s misconceptions about Pakistan. Actors Matt Damon and Goldie Hawn are chairing sessions on arts and culture. Other sessions concentrate on science, medicine, environment, etc. For me the ‘Partnering Against Corruption Initiative’ (PACI) panel organised by Elaine Dezenski was most important. We cannot fight terrorism without eliminating its nexus with corruption and organised crime. 

A number of geopolitical initiatives were launched during the WEF Summit in the 1990s, including the Israel-Palestine dialogue between Yasser Arafat and Shimon Peres. During the last decade participation from the private sector has increased in contrast to the public sector. The number of participant heads of state and government dropped from an average of over 60 to little more than a dozen, signalling a significant shift of emphasis of the WEF to its original economic mandate. 

Networking to create positive perceptions and taking advantage of it is, both as a country and commercially, is what the ‘Davos challenge’ is all about.

Photo Credit: World Economic Forum (2011)
 

"The fine line between crime and democratic aspirations has disappeared, leading to anarchy," Sehgal says. "Effective steps must be taken to contain this anarchy from spreading."

Read the full article in The News International.

Read the original article in The News International, or see below. 

A mindset is a set of assumptions that everyone develops throughout their lives and become so established that people or groups continue to adopt or accept prior behaviours, choices, or tools of those within the same mindset without question. As an incident of a person's philosophy of life mindset can be powerful, having the ability to control, persuade and even hold us back from doing or achieving things in life.

The ‘Cold War mindset’ was prevalent in both the US and the USSR. This included absolute trust in the two-player game theory, the integrity of command chain, control of nuclear materials, and the ‘mutual assured destruction’ (MAD) theory of both in the case of war. Many consider that this mindset usefully created ‘détente’, serving to prevent an attack by either country. Power groups that fail to review or revise their mindsets with sufficient regularity cannot hold power indefinitely.

A single mindset is unlikely to possess the flexibility and adaptability needed to address all future events. For example, the variations in mindset between the Democratic and Republican parties in the US (and within the two parties themselves) have made that country more able to challenge assumptions than Russia’s Kremlin with its more static bureaucracy.

How is mindset influenced in a progressive organisation? People’s behaviours can be changed in one of two ways – either forced through management decree or one can change their thinking to result in new desired behaviours. Both approaches have been used by different leaders at different times. While altering mindsets is more effective at sustaining change over the long term, it does take additional time and effort to properly effect the change. Once done, a person’s mindset can lead them to take actions (behaviours) necessary to foster momentum and a critical mass of commitment throughout the organisation. 

In Pakistan we are confronted with an extremist mindset that is extremely barbaric in nature. It kills and maims without remorse – children, the elderly and womenfolk are fair game. This enemy aims to destroy the very foundations of this country. It does not recognise the constitution of Pakistan or the values of democracy or the laws of the land. One of its aims is to introduce Shariah law in Pakistan based on its obscurantist interpretations of Islam. 

What to talk of battling terrorism, understanding the mindset of the terrorist is easier said than done. Our failure to make much headway is mainly because we provided the breeding ground of extremism through various policies. These were compounded by increasing income disparities, rampant corruption and a denial of opportunities to the common man for education and socio-economic advancement. Without pragmatic steps to address these problems an adverse mindset momentum will continue to gain ground, a time may come when even military operations become futile and counterproductive.

Terrorism must be placed in a proper perspective. To quote Stratfor Global Intelligence, “terror attacks are a tactic used by a variety of militant groups for a variety of ends, mainly to produce a psychological impact that far outweighs the actual physical damage caused by the attack itself”. A wide variety of militant groups and individuals seek to use violence as a means of influencing a government – either theirs or someone else's. But if people live their lives in a constant state of fear, those who seek to terrorise will win. 

Denying would-be terrorists this multiplication effect of fear and anxiety prevents them from accomplishing their greater goals. People must assume the proper mindset, take basic security measures and practise relaxed awareness to counter terror. The media has a major role to play in not exacerbating mass fear and anxiety. This will dispel paranoia and prevent robbing people of the joy of life.

A few years ago the people in Pakistan were deeply divided over the Taliban, some wrongly viewed these militants as fellow Muslims and sons of the soil simply yearning for Islamic law. Many did not want direct military action to be taken against them. 

With thousands of Taliban atrocities plus the many suicide attacks, bombings and other incidents of terror, a slow but sure change in perception has become visible. Now most feel that the Taliban threat will have to be stopped for the good of the country and the lives they now lead. Despite this, many Pakistanis still blame the US and the war in Afghanistan for their current troubles.

What triggers a terrorist mindset? It could be poverty, social underdevelopment, a quest for political empowerment and justice. The explanation that is more disturbing is not religion but ideology motivating the militants into such deadly missions like suicide bombings.

Change is the window through which the future can enter our lives. In today’s era of globalisation the country’s future depends upon on how well we manage to keep abreast of the changes in various fields viz economy, science, technology, medicine, etc. Without such awareness of the achievements of counterparts or rivals, the country will be left behind. Rather than lamenting the disgrace World War II heaped upon Japan as a consequence of its defeat, the Japanese people managed to change their mindset from defeatism to that of transforming Japan into an economic powerhouse.

One must be acutely aware of one important aspect of human behaviour – no one will change what they are doing until they change their mindset. A change in mindset is vital for progress and leadership plays the most vital role in this aspect. Strong leadership and good governance must be provided by leaders to explain and forcefully drive home the reasons and the need to change. They must be able to convince the people to accept such change and progress wherein their salvation lies. Continuous campaigns and explanations are required to consolidate the minds of the people to be able to change mindsets.

It may be difficult but everyone has the ability to change their core inner beliefs upon which they base their view of themselves and of the world. It is true that most people find changing even one small belief extremely difficult, let alone a whole range of self-supporting beliefs based on negative pre-conditioning. Only a tool for change will enable us to rapidly install new thought patterns and positive mindsets, based on proven success models. 

Our mindset regarding certain aspects of our lives is malleable and based on our choice of the meaning we give to things, mainly a positive mindset. Empowered by positive thinking together with an attitude of joyous expectance of only the best, we put ourselves in the correct frame of mind to propel ourselves into proper action while anticipating and expecting successful outcomes. 

Often external events and circumstances seem to rush in to assist with our intended result. The knowledge that our positive mindset can translate into a world of difference, regardless of the goal we should seek, is priceless.

Consider the theatrics of the absurd by some political clerics at the killing of the terrorist responsible for slaughtering thousands of innocent Pakistanis. It is sad that the fundamentally moderate Jamaat-e-Islami should label the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan chief Hakeemullah Mehsud a "shaheed!"

To safeguard their fiefdoms, politicians and clerics often turn to appeasement of militants. The army did well by immediately reacting to what could potentially erode the morale of its rank and file. And so did PM Mian Nawaz Sharif. Burying 15 years of self-created bad blood with the army by a maiden visit to the GHQ soon after the JI leader’s outrageous remarks, he rightly called the army’s martyrs as “our benefactors.”

Appeasement should never be an option. The militants have the blood of too many innocents on their hands. A brutal minority cannot be allowed to dictate to the ‘great silent majority’ through the barrel of a gun under any circumstances. The not-so-squeamish should see the ghastly video of this so-called ‘shaheed’ murdering one of the ISI heroes of the Afghan war, Col (ret.) Sultan Amir Tarar, nom de guerre: "Col Imam," in cold blood.

With the civil society breaking down because of blatant injustice and discrimination, insurgency and terrorism have become endemic in South Asia. After two decades of horrendous strife Sri Lanka successfully crushed the Tamil insurgency that had terrorised the island. The RAW-trained Tamil Tigers (LTTE) ultimately turned with a vengeance on the Indian peace-keeping force (IPKF) which had landed (by forcible self-invitation) to relieve them from the besieging Sri Lankan Army. How tragically ironic that in return for the bulletproof jacket he had personally presented LTTE Supremo Prabhakaran with, Rajiv Gandhi got a garland of explosives.

More than a dozen insurgencies are eclipsed by the largest terrorist group in the world operating across a broad swath of territory in India. Collecting government revenues from more than 70 districts operating in 17 Indian states, PM Manmohan Singh calls the Naxalites an existential threat to India. Nepal has seen its share of Maoist terrorism. RAW-crafted incidents aside, Bangladesh faces intermittent terrorism of the jehadi-kind.

After Tora Bora in 2002 the Al-Qaeda hierarchy went to ground in South Waziristan protected by an outer core of Mehsud tribal mercenaries. Their presence on our soil made us the ground zero of terrorism. The army went into Fata in 2003 without the requisite numbers, equipment, training, logistics, etc. Al-Qaeda turned its guns into Pakistan and created the TTP. We have only ourselves to blame for giving this menace the time and the space on our lands to prosper. Far worse, we actively collaborated with others in fighting their proxy wars on (and from) our soil.

The CIA drone strike that took out the TTP chief derailed the "peace talks," the soft-sell mechanism for countering terrorism. This was further complicated by him being replaced by the outright murderer Mullah Fazlullah. That Fazlullah had ‘guest’ status in Afghanistan after being run out of Swat by the army was never a secret. However, the capture by US Special Forces of Deputy Latif Mehsud being escorted by National Directorate of Security (NDS) agents on his way to meet Karzai in Kabul really exposed the Afghan government's double-dealing.

Afghan intelligence (with help and guidance from RAW) has been supporting the TTP’s terrorist activities and helping kill Pakistanis while posing as holier-than-thou and condemning the insurgents fighting the civil war as Pakistan-supported terrorists. Karzai’s loud protests to the U.S. for not releasing his "guest" only underscored the Afghan regime’s perfidy. It was only Latif Mehsud who could give Hakeemullah’s exact whereabouts to the Americans. With a U.S. $5 million bounty on his head, the Americans finally had a shot and they took it. Good for them.

Sophisticated psychological warfare must make the population aware of the dangers posed by terrorists. Unless accompanied by socio-economic measures, it can backfire. Terrorism can be multi-layered; issues in Pakistan include conflict of ideologies, whose brand of Islam is right and how to impose this brand on others.

U.S. intelligence failures leading to 9/11 prompted security becoming tighter, making laws stricter and highly pro-active. Providing against ‘clear and present danger’, the fail-safe line dividing rule of law from criminality can be crossed sometimes. However, one cannot agree that the only way to counter terror is by terror.

Foreign exchange meant for charity must be scrutinised for terrorist funding while processing through scheduled banks, not through FE dealers and "hawalas." Without adequate resources, or even a technological base, third world countries like Pakistan tend to react to terrorist threats rather than pre-empt them. Electronic forensics and technologies must be developed to anticipate possible future threats. NADRA’s electronic identification process has indeed been an unimaginable ‘giant leap forward’ for Pakistan—a success story beyond compare.

The National Counter Terrorism Authority (Nacta) in Pakistan is mandated to “coordinate counter terrorism and counter extremism efforts evaluating the nature and magnitude of the terrorist threat; and to present strategic policy options to the government for consideration/implementation after scientifically studying the phenomenon of extremism and terrorism in historic and professional perspective.”

A well-equipped, well-trained and well-led counterterrorism force (CTF) can isolate and destroy the terrorists’ potential to spread destruction and grief, utilizing any resources for operations, wherever and whenever necessary. Induct only the very best without any political interference or manoeuvring. Beware of the evil nexus between corruption, organised crime and terrorism. Politicians and powerful people on the criminal payroll will always be averse to the CTF becoming effective.

The touchstone of success lies in being fair to all—without fear or favor. If any community is discriminated against because of their lineage or political leanings, the battle will be lost. Urban guerrilla warfare cannot be sustained without the support of the people. Conversely no counter-campaign can succeed without the support of the people.

We have to re-think our electoral process. Our present bankrupt version will never allow democracy to function at the grassroots level. Without participation of all the stakeholders the moral basis of a democratic society is eroded. The vested interests of the PML-N and the PPP in Punjab and Sindh notwithstanding, despite Imran Khan’s passion for real grassroots democracy, even the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf model in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa has discrepancies deliberately tilting for feudalism.

An insurgent may be wrong but he believes his cause is just, his motives are unselfish and his actions target combatants. From time to time insurgents do use terrorism as a weapon of war. A terrorist uses a cause to justify his motives; the difference is that he mostly targets non-combatants with maximum prejudice.

The mindset of a terrorist is that of a murderer, callous and brutal. To terrorise the population the new TTP chief Fazlullah had video-taped the beheadings of the unfortunate in public during his reign in Swat. The commitment, will and determination of the ‘great silent majority’ to fight this murderous criminal mindset can only be encouraged by giving them participation with power at the grassroots level.

According to Sehgal, the main issue complicating such talks is India’s accusatory rhetoric against Pakistan. “Indian leaders and the media are prone to whipping up a frenzy of anti-Pakistan feelings at short notice,” Sehgal says. “Successfully combining soft power with hard power, India has cleverly converted the freedom fight in Kashmir into ‘terrorism’ and the ceasefire violations at the Line of Control (LoC) committed by them are labeled as engineered by Pakistan.”

Charging that Pakistan is following a policy of appeasement, he warns that this will not help resolve the country’s longstanding disputes with India. “There is no substitute to peace with India but not at the cost of our self-respect and independence as a nation,” he writes. “History has shown that taken as a sign of weakness, appeasement has no future.”

Click here to read the full article.

Click here to read an opposing view from EWI Board Member Kanwal Sibal.

"There must be a legal basis for ensuring the safety and security of the citizens of the country because of the specially-crafted laws that give the LEAs draconian powers,” Seghal writes. “To prevent superior courts being clogged with cases of human rights abuse, it is imperative to have a duly legislated ‘overnight mechanism’ in the form of a PSC."

To read full published article, click here. 

According to the "Global Economic Prospects"report, South Asian regional growth declined from 7.4 percent in 2011 to an estimated 5.4 percent in 2012, mainly due to a sharp slowdown in India. Home to many of the developing world’s poor, the economic future of the region depends upon regional cooperation bringing about the Asian Century, supporting regional networks to promote cooperation and focusing on trade in goods, services, electricity, people-to-people contact, and cooperation in water resource management. 

To give impetus to the key challenges facing the regional countries in having access to adequate, reliable and affordable energy, the EastWest Institute (EWI) organized a conference in Islamabad from September 2 to September 4. Representatives of regional governments, parliaments and the private sector as well as experts from China, the U.S. and Europe gathered with the aim to identify productive opportunities for economic growth based on Afghanistan’s potential as a transit route for energy supplies from Central Asia to energy markets in South Asia. 

Ambassador Beate Maeder-Metcalf, regional director of the EWI Brussels, set the tone for the conference emphasising the EWI’s determination to hold the "Abu Dhabi Process" consultations in Pakistan despite the security situation. Federal Minister for Petroleum and Natural Resources Khaqan Abbasi underlined the importance of securing energy, giving details of Pakistan’s own resources and those available in the adjoining region.

The federal minister was very positive about the outcome of the conference. Chief Minister Punjab Shahbaz Sharif was meant to be the keynote speaker but had to cancel without notice, most unfortunate given that energy is a key factor in his plans and the participants were looking forward to an interaction with the CM.

Energy transit routes are of crucial importance for the mutual benefit of both exporting and importing states. Analysts cautioned about barriers in using Afghanistan as an energy route, the civil war and political instability making possible routes insecure. Not only a historical but a natural trade corridor, it has a great potential for economic growth. 

Energy is of fundamental importance to any country. Private sector involvement in energy trade can mitigate the risk on non-recovery of cost of import. South Asia encompasses one-fifth of the global population, and energy trade can be an influential tool for economic integration. Three most important projects in this sector are the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline (IP), the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India gas pipeline (Tapi) and Central Asia South Asia (CASA)-1000. These projects will benefit Central Asian republics by providing them with new markets. 

Although Sartaj Aziz had to leave for Karachi in a hurry, he nevertheless made it a point to attend the concluding session. He emphasised good relations with all the neighbours and said intra- and inter-regional energy trade would help overcome the energy demand and supply gap in the region and economically stabilise the region. Political disturbances and civil war can be a setback to development as in the case of Tapi, but its construction will certainly be undertaken once the situation gets better. 

Dr. Frederick Starr from Johns Hopkins University was thrilled at Pakistan’s determination to go ahead with Tapi. One of the early proponents of the Tapi pipeline, Dr. Starr said, “Obviously, serious challenges will remain, the greatest of which will be to design the project (Tapi) so that it is viable in free-market terms. Doubts abound, but there are now sober optimists as well.”

The environment-friendly nature of renewable energy compels people to focus on unconventional and reliable energy sources other than oil and gas. To overcome the hindrances to socio-economic growth, Pakistan must look into the potentiality of solar, wind, bio-fuel, and hydro power as renewable resources. 

Given the disadvantages of burning fossil fuels, renewable energy has become the need of the time. As a result of the political nature of hydel energy Pakistan is forced to import large quantities of oil and oil products. Even then many cities have to undergo severe loadshedding for more than 12 hours a day. This increases trade deficit, high inflation, unemployment, depreciation of rupee, and mainly leads to lowering of living standards. The gap between demand and supply is increasing by the day despite the fact that there is tremendous potential of renewable energy sources in Pakistan. 

Discussing "Central Asia Energy Resources and Potential for Trade," speakers talked of Central Asia becoming one of the world’s top five oil producers within the next decade. Ranked 15th in the world for proven gas reserves, Kazakhstan has become a net exporter of natural gas in 2009. 

Uzbekistan is planning a major expansion of its domestic electricity infrastructure. It plans to raise $3.5bn between 2009 and 2014 to finance the increased capacity by around 2,700MW. Turkmenistan holds the world’s fourth largest reserves of natural gas amounting to 7.504 trillion cubic meters. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are less attractive to investors in terms of fossil fuel reserves. 

An expert panel focused on "Afghanistan as Energy Importer and Producer," the country being critical to developing inter-regional cooperation. Despite many differences, Pakistan and Afghanistan are moving towards joint management of common rivers starting with the proposed construction of a 1500MW hydropower project on the Kunar River. 

The panel on "Towards Regional Cooperation for Energy Security" focused on the increasing realization within South Asian countries about the importance of regional cooperation in the area of energy. There is talk of India providing electricity to Pakistan. In the field of energy security, China is cooperating with Turkmenistan in the construction of the gas pipeline opened in 2009. 

Pakistan’s primary power supplies from conventional energy sources cannot meet the country’s demand. Electricity generation has become dependent largely on petroleum fuels and faces a huge gap of 4500MW between demand and supply that has far-reaching consequences on development. For this reason, renewable energy alternatives must be developed urgently. 

Despite the enormous potential of indigenous energy resources, Pakistan remains energy deficient, relying heavily on the imports of petroleum products to satisfy its present needs. A recent study by the Energy Information Administration based on a study done by Advance Resources International (ARI) has estimated Pakistan’s recoverable shale gas at 105 trillion cubic feet (tcf)—up from 24 tcf. Oil estimate have increased dramatically 30 times from 300 million barrels to 9.1 billion barrels. In contrast, India is estimated to have 96 tcf and 2.7 billion barrels of oil recoverable from share oil reserves.

The EWI initiative to have its energy conference in Pakistan despite the critical security situation here has highlighted the need of the country. Energy is crucial not only to meet socio-economic challenges, but the inter-dependability inherent in the acquisition process will further the cause of peace in the region.

Ikram Sehgal is a security analyst and chairman of PATHFINDER GROUP.

To read full published article, click here. 

Click here for more information about the event.