Ikram Sehgal

The many reasons that Pakistan is now the 'ground zero' of terrorism are well known. It is mostly our own fault for giving this threat time and space. We allowed others to fight their proxy wars on our soil and, even worse, we actively collaborated in fighting their proxy wars. Negotiations are part of the 'soft-sell' mechanism to counter terrorism. Both the government and the opposition are on the same page on this. This must be done within the framework of the constitution with no ambiguity about what to talk about and who to talk to.

Appeasement is not an option. The militants have been single-mindedly targeting mosques, schools, hospitals, funerals, etc and the innocent blood of many women, children and the elderly is on their hands. This minority cannot, under any circumstances, be allowed to dictate terms at gunpoint to the great 'silent majority.'

The non-violent initiatives required to combat terrorism are: (1) dispensing equitable justice; (2) providing sound education; (3) curbing religious militancy; (4) building viable political institutions; (5) spurring the economy; (6) creating effective police forces; and (7) maintaining absolute credibility.

The misery of the people of Pakistan cannot be assuaged without the good-governance mechanism of local bodies (LB) working effectively. Without this democracy is a farce. Why are our ruling politicians averse to democracy functioning at the grassroots level? Citizens must be active stakeholders in the peace, stability and prosperity of their communities. The local police, with their extensive informer network, are usually aware of the presence of terrorists. However, they seldom pass on the information for fear of reaction by the militants. Active information flow regarding every locality and vigilance concerning strangers denies terrorists 'safe houses' to operate from.

Three concentric spheres support the process of death and destruction that terrorists employ to create fear and apprehension among the people. Money provides the necessary logistics – arms and explosives, hideouts, travel and the surveillance of soft vulnerable targets, etc. Within the innermost circle are the terrorists themselves, surrounded by a second wider circle of direct supporters, planners, commanders, and religious personalities serving as the terrorism infrastructure. The third circle is of religious, educational and welfare organisations. Promoting hatred, lies and ignorance, they operate mostly through mosques, madressahs and other religious establishments.

The only way to break this evil chain is to make the second circle the primary target. One must be mindful not only of hatred being viciously propagated through incitement in the media but the dissemination of false information by blatant hypocrites.

Corruption not only supports but morphs naturally into 'organised crime.' In urban areas this takes the form of the land, water, transport and sand mafia, and 'protection' rackets. 'Organised crime' thrives in our feudal system, and criminally monopolises the civilian administrative mechanism to hold the population in virtual bondage. Exceptions aside, most of the local police are willing partners in both corruption and organised crime.

There is a nexus between corruption, organised crime and terrorism. Motivated by ideology, terrorists need arms and money, while criminals are motivated by greed. Organised crime linkages include money-laundering, fabricating official documents, providing safe houses, supplying explosives, providing couriers who can smuggle drugs, arms and human beings across countries. Drug trafficking supports both criminal and terrorist activity.

Terrorist organisations also include common criminals with special skills or access to networks or criminal opportunities. Criminal groups sometimes turn ideological over time. It may be impossible to destroy the logistical network supporting terrorist groups without striking major blows at supporting criminal networks. With increased criminal activity replacing ideology, profit and greed are major motivating factors for the operations of some terrorist groups.

Technology has become an essential weapon in the 'war against terrorism,' and it is being developed and enhanced to counter militancy. Conversely, terrorists can also acquire existing technology with relative ease and narrow the huge resource gap they have to contend with. Developed countries facing the 'terrorist sword' are fast developing technologies to reduce vulnerability and increase counterterrorism efforts.

Politicians engaged in corruption, or on the fringes of it, will always be averse to the National Counter Terrorism Authority (Nacta) becoming a powerful body. Law and order may be a provincial subject, but terrorism is a federal problem. Nacta was made non-functional during Rehman Malik's tenure

Only the very best professionals must be inducted into Nacta, without any political interference or manoeuvring, for it to be an effective body. It must be given the tools and funding necessary to make risk and site vulnerability assessments; promote crisis, disaster and emergency situation management; develop and implement national security strategy, policies and procedures; and assess the quality of current security services with recommendations for improvement.

Identifying the most dangerous threats and likely targets thereof, Nacta must be able to: (1) detect people organised in terrorist activities, and monitor their movements; (2) detect the sources of supply of explosive materials; (3) mobilise defence capability to recognise and counter specific threats; (4) mobilise adequate and coordinated intelligence capability, utilising both human and electronic intelligence; (5) focus on air, sea, rail and road travel as potential terror targets; and (6) use both electronic and physical means to guard the country's frontiers, involving monitoring and observation of thousands of miles of our borders.

The Anti-Narcotics Force (ANF) set up in the 1990s to eliminate the drug problem can be used as a model for setting up a Counter-Terrorist Force (CTF). The ANF reduced poppy growth from 30,000 hectares to less than one thousand hectares. The ANF Act covers the collection of information, investigation, complete judicial process, forfeiture of property, destruction of poppy growth, treatment and rehabilitation of drug users and providing alternate means of livelihood to the people involved in this mess. It also has latitude to interact with international agencies and bodies. Well-funded to handle its informers, it pays good reward money to its enforcement component.

The ANF has its own intelligence setup to identify the flow of drug money. In a symbiotic relationship, terrorists thrive on drug money and drug barons provide protection to the drug trade. The ANF can be successful in a counterterrorism role if the following conditions are met: (1) anti-terrorist laws are passed by parliament; (2) the requisite judicial reforms are introduced to make electronic evidence admissible in courts (to convict terrorists); (3) a psyops organisation is created to feed the media, to change the dogmatic thinking of the people; (4) as highlighted by the Abbottabad Commission, an effective mechanism is created to coalesce and coordinate 'activate intelligence;' and (5) adequate funding is allocated. The ANF Act can be amended for the ANF to conduct anti-terrorism operations itself. Capable serving and retired armed forces personnel and police officers must run the CTF.

Given the militants' focus on Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the PTI's contribution is important for political consensus. The APC is an important milestone to save the country from sliding into an abyss, and the federal government must translate the combined political will into reality.

Ikram Sehgal is a security analyst and chairman of PATHFINDER GROUP.

To read full published article, click here.

Visiting China is a never-ending revelation; the amazing 7.7 percent growth rate in a sluggish global economy is considered ‘disappointing’ there. Of China’s 31 provinces, Guangdong has the highest GDP – US$960 billion with a growth rate of 8.2 percent – while Tibet is lowest with 12 percent growth rate and a GDP of US$11 billion.

The Guizhou province has the highest growth rate (12 percent). Xinjiang, bordering Pakistan and vastly underdeveloped, is 25th with US$121 billion and a 12 percent growth rate. The expanse of the two bustling ever-growing mega cities of Beijing or Shanghai is truly outstanding with enormous public infrastructure delivering efficient services to its citizens.

An early morning (7:15am) extempore briefing by CH Tung at the EastWest Institute’s 2013 ‘spring’ board meeting in Beijing from May 15 to May 17 was a treat. The shipping magnate became Hong Kong’s chief executive in 1999 when the city was handed back to China by the UK. Born on July 8, 1937 – the day Japan and China went to war – Tung gave an insightful historical and cultural perspective into China describing the determined mindset influencing China’s drive to soon become the most prosperous country in the world.

Certainly important to peace and prosperity in the world, the US-China competition is presently peaceful but has ominous military overtones because of the growing number of flashpoints on China’s periphery. The US is mired in Cold War relationships that it cannot seem to shed. Of greater concern to us are Pakistan’s present and future ties with China.

China’s only opening to the world was symbolised best by Pakistan facilitating its first top-level contact with the US – Henry Kissinger’s famous secret trip to China in July 1971 changed the strategic dynamics of the world. Chinese PM Chou En-Lai reportedly told Kissinger, “Do not forget the bridge (meaning Pakistan) you have used, you may have to use it again.” Unfortunately our record with the US is spotty, every ten years or so Pakistan goes from being a ‘cornerstone’ to a ‘gravestone’.

The Chinese leaders from the 1970s are retired octogenarians now. However, China has not forgotten the ‘bridge’ that Pakistan is, at least at the strategic level. The proposed Pak-China economic corridor linking Gwadar Port with Xinjiang and other parts of China will involve both road and rail links, with both optic fibre and oil pipelines for boosting energy, trade and transport between the two countries. Initially investing over US$20 billion creating a ‘Special Economic Zone’ in Xinjiang, China’s keenness to have another trade outlet to the Indian Ocean is cementing its historic ties with Pakistan.

The transit time will be reduced from weeks and months to three to four days only, creating an economic windfall for Pakistan, particularly in less developed Balochistan. Pakistan’s salvation requires major investment in infrastructure. With the US pulling out of Afghanistan by 2014, the Afghan economy will go into a tailspin. Only an economic overdrive can contain the spill over of the desperate poverty. Militarily we will be hard-pressed, force-multiplied further if we fail to create economic opportunities for our people as well as the Afghans.

The high point of my current visit to China was meeting up with retired ambassador Zhang Chun Xiang. Four decades ago he was an interpreter with the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) divisions constructing the tremendous Karakoram Highway (KKH) in the highest mountains in the world. Pakistan Army Aviation’s KKH Flight was in support with two Aloutte-3 helicopters.

Ambassador Zhang speaks fluent Urdu and is not averse to choice Punjabi expletives if and when the need arises. He served as the Chinese consul general in Houston, retiring as China’s ambassador to Hungary. His 23 years of service in Pakistan includes stints with the Chinese consulate general in Karachi and the Chinese embassy in Islamabad. His last posting in Pakistan was as ambassador. Now in an advisory capacity with major Chinese technological group Huawei, Zhang still advises on Chinese policies in South Asia.

The EastWest Institute honoured Ambassador Zhang by his brief presence at the EWI Board meeting. People like Zhang have kept the friendship alive not only between individuals but countries, our mutual association being highly symbolic of the continuing friendship between China and Pakistan. Emotions and feelings will always drive relationships between nations. And, more importantly, core interests must coincide – and better still, not diverge.

The disappointment in Pakistan that Chinese PM Li Keqiang chose India as his first stop as prime minister (with Islamabad to follow later) is more perception than fact. We should not be apprehensive of China-India relations; they will have no negative consequences for Pakistan. Similarly we cannot condition our ties with the US on its ties with India – the dynamics are different particularly given the economic connotations. Our ties with China will become stronger as mutual economic initiatives increasingly dovetail into their geo-political compulsions. Take India’s questioning of the Chinese policy of issuing stapled visas to residents of Indian-occupied Kashmir in contrast to giving normal visas to citizens of the Pakistan-administered side. India says China is taking Pakistan’s side in the dispute. That is true!

India’s trade with China exceeds US$66 billion but unresolved border disputes remain. Historically China is a restraining factor to India’s normal aggressive posture vis-à-vis Pakistan. India’s apprehensions about Gwadar are neither justified nor warranted. The Chinese PM will possibly underscore the port’s importance to China, not as a forward military base but an energy and trade junction providing a vital economic outlet for the country. Regional peace and stability requires we address contentious issues that bedevil relations, like Kashmir, between India and Pakistan. Given that we can never come to an agreement over Kashmir, what is stopping us from coming to an arrangement?

To quote Director Sun Shi-Lai of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences “Pakistan can cast great influence on Islamic countries and serve as a bridge between China and the Middle East.” Fortunately China’s self-interest and our national interest coincide, reinforcing mutual commitment as “all-weather” friends (to quote Chinese FM Wang Yi). Our friendship is definitely a ‘cornerstone’ of Chinese foreign policy. With over US$20 billion being invested in Xinjiang this year alone, China’s opening to the Indian Ocean is not only a dream of prosperity for China and Pakistan but a dire necessity.

The Chinese suffered many casualties during the construction of the KKH. As helicopter pilots it was our unpleasant duty to ferry the injured for medical aid – some of them with fatal injuries. For me personally at that time it was a road coming from nowhere and going nowhere. The proximity to blood and gore on a daily basis does get to you. After one particularly harrowing day I angrily asked Zhang, “What is with you Chinese? Why are you killing yourselves for this road?” His calm reply is forever etched in my memory, “You Pakistanis cannot think beyond 10 years, us Chinese dream beyond a 100 years!”

What stops us Pakistanis from dreaming too?

Ikram Sehgal is a security analyst and chairman of PATHFINDER GROUP.

To read full published article, click here.

More than 150 lost their lives in the run-up to the elections and on election day itself, scores were injured. Despite fear and intimidation, by lining up to vote the populace signalled their readiness to be stakeholders in the destiny of the nation and willing to confront the challenges. PTI’s Chairman Imran Khan made an emotional appeal to the people to go out and vote for change. Vote for change it certainly is, the ruling coalition parties that have driven Pakistan literally into the ground are now an “endangered species”, but the voters played safe, favouring the steady experience of Mian Nawaz Sharif instead of the charismatic Imran Khan.

What both military and civil regimes could not do to the PPP founded by Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, his son-in-law Asif Ali Zardari and his shadowy Merlin operating from the Presidency have managed to do in the space of five years of misrule. For lining their own pockets, they have sacrificed the great national party, marginalizing it into mostly a regional status. Zardari’s nuisance value will remain, he will keep on playing the “Sindh Card” but the writing is on the wall. The strong second place showing of PML (F) allied with nationalists in interior Sindh ensures that even in the Sindh rural areas politically life will be tough for the party in the future.

It is important to rid the country of the aberration blighting the Presidency. The 18th Amendment was made into a joke, the government was mismanaged from the Presidency over a puppet PM put into place by Zardari, the Constitution now works in Mian Nawaz Sharif’s favour. Mian Nawaz Sharif can let Zardari finish his term in August or impeach him, alongwith PTI he has the necessary numbers to do so. While Mian Sahib is inclined to let him finish his term, why is our future PM being so magnanimous, will justice be served by letting Zardari go without retrieving the billions he has secreted abroad? Or is the Swiss case the symbolic price of our democracy? It gives truth to Imran Khan’s insinuations of PPP and PML (N) being hand in glove! Removed of his Presidential immunity, Zardari and his close associates in white collar crime can be put on the ECL to start with. Zardari’s close aides must not be allowed to exit Pakistan, these people have harmed the country beyond measure. People like former Interior Minister Rahman Malik should be a virtual mine of knowledge. Given the right “incentives” they will talk nineteen to the dozen to save their skins.

A cursory look at the voting figures will show that Imran Khan’s Tsunami touched landfall in KPK but only parts of Punjab. Despite giving PML (N) the nod, the calculations went astray because the visible enthusiasm in the streets indicated a surge for PTI, true in KPK but not in Punjab. Conversely the PML (N)’s measure of popularity in the Punjab was quite wrong, taking 40 more NA seats than projected. Dozens of races were close, PTI was not too far behind in second place in many contests. The “first past the post system” is flawed, winner takes all but is that true representation of the stakeholders in a democracy? After all, more than 100% is a bit thick with indications of ballot stuffing, interference in women polling stations, etc PTI asked for re-counting in 25 NA seats. PML (N) is so far ahead, they can afford voting irregularities to be examined. A few adjustments notwithstanding, Mian Sahib won the elections fair and square. Remember 1977, PPP had clearly won the elections, less than two dozen seats were rigged but the entire electoral exercise became a subject of doubt and controversy. The PML (N) destroyed PPP and PML (Q) in the Punjab and PTI put paid to ANP in KPK. Calculations were that ANP would be left with 4 NA seats in KPK, even stalwarts like Asfandyar Wali Khan and Ghulam Mohammad Bilour suffered stinging defeats.

Bagging a significant number of independents, PML (N) will have a working majority to form a government without other partners. A good sign is that MQM’s Altaf Hussain immediately called to congratulate the PML (N) chief on his victory. While PML (N) does not need MQM according to the seat count, it is always useful to have MQM on board, Karachi being crucial for any Federal Government. PPP has the numbers to align with MQM for the Sindh Provincial Government, MQM may have a vital role to play in political détente.

Visiting Beijing, one was struck by the priorities for China set out by Chinese Premier Li Keqiang, “upholding social fairness and justice, improving the policy environment for development and providing high quality public service.” The last can only become true in Pakistan when the blatant discrimination between the District Management Group (DMG) and the Provincial Civil Services (PCS) is removed. Mian Nawaz Sharif has his work cut out, despite our manpower and material resources the country is in an economic mess. Why not imitate the Chinese priorities for economic reforms on an urgent basis i.e. reduce administrative redundancy, empower the private sector and open up more to the world?

Waiting for more than four hours because the ballot boxes did not arrive, once the process started, it was smooth in our polling station in NA-250. The elections were not flawless, no elections in Pakistan ever are. Yet this was the best electoral exercise conducted in Pakistan’s history. Besides knowing clearly for the first time in my life in which location to vote, thanks to NADRA’s electronic message system, my name on the voter list was easily ascertained. Each page had ten voters with their photographs, that is no mean achievement! If the polling staff did not arrive in time, that was not the ECP’s fault, the Caretaker Government was derelict in their administrative responsibility, moreover local law and order is their subject. ECP staff deserve kudos for performing despite our 85 years old media-grandstanding Chief Election Commissioner. While ECP’s nominated members will take all the glory for a job well done, the real kudos must be reserved for Mr Ishtiak, Secretary ECP and the ECP rank and file.

The PML (N) forms the Federal Government, and the government in the Punjab, PPP in Sindh and PTI should be able to do it in KPK. Balochistan will probably have a PML (N) supported government. While PTI will get on-hands experience of governing in KPK, it needs the full support of the Federal Government because the ongoing battle to eliminate terrorism is centered in KPK. It was tremendous to see Mian Nawaz Sharif reach out pragmatically to Imran Khan by visiting him in his hospital bed. It maybe too much to hope for but should PTI become part of the Federal government it would confirm that Pakistan’s interests and Mian Nawaz Sharif’s are one and same.

Having proved himself politically at the polls, Mian Nawaz Sharif has shown, at least initially, that he is well on his way to becoming the political statesman this country badly needs.

Ikram Sehgal is a security analyst and chairman of PATHFINDER GROUP.

To read full published article, click here.

Notwithstanding PPP and ANP desperately trying to avoid impending rout by delaying the electoral process, approximately 86 million people will be eligible to decide the country’s fate on Saturday May 11, 2013.

Kayani put to rest widespread doubts by reiterating the army’s commitment supporting the election schedule, 70000 troops fanning out to deploy in sensitive areas. 35 million voters of the 80 eligible (about 44%) exercised their right in 2008.  Alongwith fake degrees a greater number of votes (37 million, 46%) being bogus and/or duplicate undermined the credibility of the “elected” Assemblies and served to show the disfigured face of our “democracy”. These “anomalies” have now been removed, to an extent.  Given the ineffectiveness of the due diligence conducted by the ECP, these frauds will be soon be back in Parliament.

The voting percentage represents the barometer of the will of the people, it is impossible to quantify whether the aspirations of the people desperate for change will be translated into votes.  Whoever thought up the idea of launching the movie “Chambeli” at this particular time has a genius for impact and sheer timing.  The spontaneous reaction of the audience captures the deep resentment against the existing feudal system, coincidence that the content and theme is synonymous with Imran Khan’s message?  With a majority of youth and women already vowing for him, Imran Khan has woken up dormant society, will his unfortunate injury galvanize the populace to vote the difference for this nation, his party and for himself on May 11?

Constant terrorist attacks notwithstanding, about 43 million (nearly 50%), are expected to turn out.  17 million (20%) voters ages 18 - 25 years and women across the age divide being very visibly enthused may cross the 45 million voters (52%) mark.  Coincidentally 17 million now between the ages 51-70 were in the age group 18-25 in rooting for Zulfikar Ali Bhutto in 1970 in the vain hope of acquiring “Roti, Kapra aur Makan”.   PPP, MQM and ANP candidates are being targetted by terrorists as “liberals” but other parties are also being attacked, JUI (F) lost 25 killed in Kurram Agency this Sunday and 5 in Hangu a day later. PPP, ANP and PML (Q) stand to become politically “endangered species” on May 11, only the MQM vote bank (about 2.5 million) remains intact. Notwithstanding the excellent Benazir Income Support Program (BISP) initiative, discredited and in disarray, PPP will be lucky to get close to their 10 million tally in 2008.  Most of 2008’s 8 million PML (Q) votes will return to PML (N), ANP registering far less than their half million plus votes in 2008.  PTI stands to match the PML(N) popular vote estimated at about 14 million votes (6.7 million in 2008). JUI (F) and JI will each poll half a million plus with “independents” getting 5-6 million votes.

The Federal capital has 0.6 million (0.33 males 0.27 females) voting for 2 NA seats and FATA 1.75 million (1.15 males 0.59 females) for its 12 NA seats. The 61 NA seats in Sindh voted for by 18.7 million voters (10.3 males, 8.4 females) are divided demographically along rural, urban and urban-rural constituencies. Primarily due pre-poll rigging PPP will still retain 27 or so NA rural seats. PML (F) alliance with nationalists and PML (N) could manage upto 9-10 seats, MQM will retain its 19 urban seats, PML (N) two with a seat each for ANP and PML (Q).  PPP will lead the Provincial coalition with MQM and ANP as partners.

Wooing 3.34 million (1.9 males 1.4 females) voters for 14 NA seats in Balochistan are PML (N), Balochistan National Party (BNP) headed by Akhtar Mengal, Mehmood Khan Achakzai’s Pakhtunkhwa Milli Awami Party (PKMAP), JUI (F) and Hasil Khan Bizenjo’s National Party (NP), NA contenders include JUI (Nazaryati) (separated from JUI (F)) and Bugti’s Jamhoori Watan Party (JWP).  PML (N) may get 3 seats, BNP, PKMAP, JUI (F) and NP 2 each, and 1 seat each for JUI (N), JWP and independent.  The Provincial coalition is up for sale!

Faced with a meltdown, ANP are citing security fears.  The battle-fatigue of the 12.3 million (7.04 males 5.3 females) KPK electorate has been force-multiplied by blatant corruption. ANP may at best win 4-5 NA seats out of 35 NA seats and maybe 12-15 PA seats. Gaining most from ANP’s misery, PTI will take some seats also from PPP, collecting between 12-15 NA seats. PPP will retain 5-6 seats.   Its Hazara stronghold should get PML (N)  7-8 NA seats overall, JUI will have 4-5 seats, one each for Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) and Aftab Sherpao.  PTI could lead the Provincial coalition but so could PML (N) if PTI cannot get the numbers together.

Nearly 49 million voters (27.6 males 21.4 females) will battle for 148 NA seats in the Punjab.  PPP will manage around 18-20 NA seats with PML (Q) getting 10-12 NA “electables”, about 10 will go to independents.  PML (N) should get 80 seats and PTI 50 on the 2008 pattern.   If near 50% vote, it will tilt towards PTI, PML (N) could have 70 and PTI 65 NA seats.  The Punjab Provincial elections is presently a toss-up.  PPP will peak at 40-45 seats with PML (Q) bagging 15 and MQM 19 NA seats, JUI (F) 7 and JI about 5 seats. There may be 12-15 independents.   With five million possible overseas voters eligible, Imran’s tally could have gone up by 3.5 million if ECP had not denied the Pakistani diaspora abroad their right of vote.

Adding independents, either party will need the magic 100 plus seats to lead a coalition government.  While there is virtually no difference ideologically between PML (N) and PTI bad-mouthing between  PML (N) and PTI has been quite vicious and quite unnecessary. Having been outmaneuvered time and again by Zardari’s duplicity, can Nawaz Sharif rely on the reliably unreliable? Moreover the pound of flesh Zardari will extract will be a political price (re-election as President) almost impossible for PML (N) to pay. Whatever way one looks at it, whether PML (N) is in front or PTI is, Mian Nawaz Sharif and Imran Khan must come together.

The nightmare of the last five years was symbolised by the rule of law being broken by the rulers as their convoluted version of governance, something highlighted in “Chambeli”.  Despite his grievous head and back injuries Imran Khan gave a dramatic and emotional appeal to the people from his hospital bed, “I have done what I have to do, that was my responsibility.  Now you do what is your responsibility.”  Observers agree that the wave of sympathy for him and his exhortation for the people to change their destiny by going to vote on May 11 will encourage them to flock to the polls. The fact of his electronic media appearance from the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) on prime TV in contrast to his opponents will help PTI.  We are on the verge of salvation, the Sharif’s spontaneous reaction to Imran’s injury, Mian Sahib’s suspending of his campaign for a day, shows compromise is possible by recognizing each other’s popular mandate and working out an amicable relationship to ensure good governance.  Only adherence to the rule of law will usher in the peace and prosperity that the people of this country have been denied and badly deserve. 

Imran’s injury, though unfortunate, is the game changer for compromise badly needed in Pakistan politics.  There is a time to fight and a time to unite!

To read full published article click here.

Sehgal, who is also a political columnist for Pakistani newspapers such as The News International, decried the high level of privilege and corruption in Pakistan’s government. As an example, he noted that “70 percent of the legislators in the last parliament were neither registered taxpayers, nor were paying taxes themselves.”

He also warned that a lethal nexus of “corruption, organized crime and terrorism” is a chronic problem, producing contradictory trends. While the counter-insurgency strategy of Pakistani’s army has scored notable successes, he noted: “We have not really won the war against terrorism. Terrorism is alive and well in Pakistan.” A big part of the problem, he added, is that “the political will to fight terrorism is not really there in the current government.”

However, Sehgal does see some hope in the  May elections. He noted that Pakistani women are increasingly involved in politics, as are growing numbers of newly registered young voters. The latter group has been attracted to politics by compelling figures such as Imran Khan, the former star cricket player-turned-politician. While not a member of Khan’s party, Sehgal insisted that he was “better than the corrupt people that we now have in power.”

Elections aside, the domestic fate of Pakistan is very much dependent on its neighbors—and, in particular, on Afghanistan. What happens following the withdrawal of foreign troops from that country next year will have an immediate impact on Pakistan, he cautions.  

“The Afghan vacuum will spill over to Pakistan,” he declared. Although he does not see foresee a sudden dissolution of Afghanistan after foreign troops exit the country, he predicts that “it will happen gradually” unless the Afghan authorities perform better than they do now.

Nonetheless, Sehgal believes that Pakistan could have a bright future, in part, because of its considerable resources and skilled manpower. “We are one of the few developing nations that can feed and clothe our citizens,” he said. He then went on to rank his country as one of the world’s highest producers of copper, gold, coal, wheat, milk, cotton and other crucial resources. “I am an optimist about Pakistan,” he concluded.

Sehgal previously spoke at EWI’s 9^th Worldwide Security Conference in Brussels, focusing on Economic Security in Southwest Asia. Watch the video of his address here.

The phrase ‘may you live in interesting times’ is a Chinese curse heaped on an enemy. Frederic Coudert quotes an unknown British diplomat in 1936: “No age has been fraught with more insecurity than our present time.” Three years later the Second World War ravaged the world between 1939 and 1945. We in Pakistan have never ceased to live through such times throughout our checkered history.

Because of the geographical location and the consequent world politics that goes with it, our geopolitical situation is made tenuous because of religious diversities and permutations and combinations thereof. Notwithstanding the economic potential of an area astride the Indus River descending to a fertile delta from the high Karakoram Mountains down to the Indian Ocean, rich in agriculture and blessed with both minerals and skilled manpower we are perennially in crisis, mostly man-made disasters – earthquake and floods aside.

The hex on Pakistan is mainly because of the leaders we have been cursed with across the broad spectrum since the early demise of the Quaid in 1949 and the subsequent assassination of his close aide, Shaheed Liaquat Ali Khan in 1951. We continue to survive as a nation only because of the enormous resilience our people are blessed with. Even the bloody wake-up call we got in 1971 seemed only momentarily to distract us, thereafter it was back to "business" as usual of perennial bad governance. Things are even worse in that part of Pakistan, now Bangladesh since 1971.

A history of incompetence and corruption is further complicated by less than three million out of 180 million people paying direct taxes. The economy remains under pressure because of seriously deficient revenues. Consider: 70 percent of the legislators in the last parliament, who imperiously imposed taxes on the people, were neither registered taxpayers nor were they paying taxes themselves. The battle cry of the New Republic in 1776, “no taxation without representation,” could be paraphrased for Pakistan as “no taxation with representation.”

The leaders of two major political parties are the richest men in the country. Asif Ali Zardari and Mian Nawaz Sharif till very recently paid less tax than even the lowest salaried person in their own employ liable to pay taxes. Hiding of illegal wealth by misdeclaration and failure to pay requisite taxes are endemic, as are fake credentials being used to enter parliament and preside over the destiny of the nation. The many discrepancies in declaring their income and assets in previous years should by itself be enough to disqualify most, if not all, of the previous parliamentarians.

Enormous amounts of money are flowing out of the country, take for example the judgement in the UK by Justice Hamblen on February 13, 2013 in favour of complainant Deutsche Bank (Suisse) against Senator Gulzar Khan of the PPP, his sons Senators Waqar Khan (for some time the federal minister for privatisation and investment) and Ammar Khan, Senator Gulzar’s wife Razia Sultana and their daughter Sehr Asher and seven off-shore companies.

The judgement encompassing 73 pages includes mind-boggling amounts for purchase of the most expensive property in London in 2007, ultimately exceeding UK Pounds Sterling 100 million (Rs15 billion). The challenge for the ECP as a test case, how much taxes did these five billionaires pay in Pakistan, or the UK, ie if any, and pray what was their need for setting up seven off-shore companies?

The media as a champion of accountability has been correctly measured by those it, in theory, is meant to hold accountable. Details about the enormous wealth transferred abroad (what to talk about their bank defaults) of stalwarts of many political parties are not reported in Pakistan at all, or made public as they should be. Our media does not venture asking “inconvenient” questions; can any in the print and/or electronic media dare question why our topmost holder of public office does not declare his assets as every public official should?

The immediate problem is to ensure free and fair translation of the wishes of the electorate on May 11. In 2002 the military’s favourites were manoeuvred into public office, give credit to Maj Gen (r) Ihtesham Zamir (then of the ISI), son of late Zamir jafri, for his moral courage in standing up and accepting his responsibility for selectively rigging the vote for favourites on Gen Musharraf’s (‘illegal’) instructions. While the 2008 electoral process was not interfered into by the army, it was so badly flawed that hundreds entered parliament with fake educational qualifications and without correctly declaring their income, sources thereof and assets. The present process of scrutiny of candidates was deliberately rushed to pressurise officials of the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) in the field to accept flawed credentials of intending candidates.

In a case reported as ‘PLD 1984 Supreme Court (of Pakistan)’ Page 44 says: “Perjury is one of the most heinous social and moral offences. An offence punishable under the law as stipulated under Section 194 of the PPC, it is also against the injunctions of the Holy Quran (Sura Al-Nisa: 135), an evil which tends to disrupt the very basis of social order and make a mockery of the judicial system, be it Islamic or otherwise”.

Consider our uniformed young men in Swat, South Waziristan and elsewhere, as well as innocent civilians throughout the land, dying by the hundreds while frauds and perjurers revel in the luxuries and trappings of power while lording over us as feudals. To quote TV anchor Talat Hussain: “The greater the fraud the greater the reward in Pakistan.”

Telling lies under oath is a favorite (and profitable) pastime in South Asia, particularly in Pakistan. A person giving or fabricating false evidence is liable to be punished with imprisonment for life or with rigorous imprisonment, extending to ten years, and also liable to fine. Instead of getting entangled in legal technicalities proving the evidence as per our rather outdated and defective "laws of evidence" inherited from the British (who have long since changed them), if prima facie the previous declaration of assets by the candidates and filing of related information differs substantially from that submitted presently, evidenced also without commensurate increase in paying of taxes, then they are guilty of perjury.

Will we want certified perjurers to rule over our nation’s destiny for another five years? Or will the Supreme Court condone perjury under the ‘Doctrine of Necessity’ for sustaining democracy come what may at all costs, even to the peril of the nation?

Ikram Sehgal is a security analyst and chairman of PATHFINDER GROUP. He will be appearing at EWI's New York Center on April 16 to discuss "The Future of Pakistan." 

National security can be undermined because of the socio-political environment prevailing. The critical elements are: (1) the state and the political system, representative democracy, basic values, ideology, economy and the decision-making process. Because they impact beyond the boundaries of a single society, socio-political issues require ethical and responsible solutions.

However, if the aim of the rulers is only to make money for themselves and manipulate the system to enhance their own rule, the resultant endemic bad governance endangers the state as well as the safety, comfort and welfare of the people.

Nations seldom abide by moral codes when their national security is threatened. Consider the debate within the US about the legality of drone strikes in the territory of another sovereign nation, well knowing that innocents will be killed along with militants. Such a ‘doctrine of necessity’ glosses over the public conscience about ‘collateral damage’ in a country where normally it would be condemned as morally repugnant.

Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry very rightly maintains that national security in modern times cannot be confined to aggression or external threat. Conversing with a study group from the National Management Course in Islamabad, he said: “Gone are the days when stability and security of the country was defined in terms of missiles, tanks and armoury as a manifestation of hard power available to the state.”

He went on: “States are now bound to provide its citizens security and protect their civil rights at all costs. Progress of the state is impossible without eliminating anarchy from the system. Failure of administration and implementation structure is visible everywhere, steps against the law and the constitution will push society and the environment towards turmoil and unrest.”

Bemoaning the present state of governance in Pakistan, Justice Chaudhry posed the following questions: “Do we reward merit and hard work? Are the term principles of rule of law and the supremacy of the constitution being strictly enforced? Do the citizens of the country trust the system and think it provides them fair opportunity to realise their driven in a transparent manner?

“Does the present system have the capacity to discourage the corrupt? Do we have a system where civil and property rights are protected and contracts are fully enforced?” He added: “Unfortunately, the answer to the above questions is no, the system is distorted and does not provide a level playing field for the people to achieve in life whatever they are capable of.”

The chief justice’s concerns about threats to national security are very much commensurate with the remedy given in the First Amendment to the 1789 U.S. constitution derived from the 1776 U.S. Declaration of Independence (holding true for all democracies everywhere): “Whenever any form of government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the right of the people to alter or to abolish it, and to institute a new government, laying its foundation on such principles and organising its powers in such form as to them shall seem most likely to effect their safety and happiness.”

The armed forces cannot remain blind to the deliberate mis-governance, but this must not be misconstrued as an exhortation for military intervention. Armies have no business to be in the business of running the country, nor are they capable of that, at least not for an extended period. Power is only handed over under judicial cover in ‘aid to civil power’ when it becomes impossible for civilian rule to function. This extreme stopgap short-time measure resorted to restore civilian authority is to enforce rule of law and avoid anarchy.

How does one balance the equation between avoiding military intervention, while ensuring that the rulers do not use the convenient cover of democracy and the constitution to deliberately criminalise society? Can the armed forces remain oblivious if national security linkages with the social-political environment erode the basic foundations of society? When it is threatened, it becomes not only the moral duty but an obligation for the men in khaki to act in the spirit in which the constitution evolved.

Precedents in Pakistan exist for such recourse under judicial cover, successfully implemented for a short period in Karachi in 2010 when the Rangers, armed with police powers and acting under the direct authority of the Supreme Court, caught many target killers across the political divide. By preventing them from laughing their way out of the police stations within hours due to the inordinate influence of their political handlers, the Rangers brought a modicum of peace and harmony to Karachi for a short period.

After years of heaping insults and hurling dire threats at each other, the PML-N and the PPP are clearly in cahoots as partners manipulating the electoral process to remain in power, as Imran Khan has been claiming for years. Can this country survive five more years of misrule and bad governance?

Without resorting to overthrowing the government, what modus operandi must the army employ to ensure that the system does not dissolve into anarchy? The correct way is to give quiet counsel to the rulers to rectify the wrongs themselves. To his credit, Kayani has done just that for the last five years. Unfortunately, it has been effective only selectively when the rulers felt their hold on power was threatened. This had no effect on the government’s transgressions vis-a-vis nepotism and corruption.

Because these impact on national security, whenever hard evidence comes before the COAS he is duty-bound to refer it to the heads of state and government, verbally at first and, if that does not evoke remedial measures, in writing. Whether the COAS has raised his concerns strongly enough with the rulers one does not know, but the rulers have certainly shown no inclination to correct their blatant wrongdoing.

According to the Oxford Dictionary, ‘redress’ means to “remedy or set right (an undesirable or unfair situation).” A petition for ‘redress of grievances’ is to “make or present a formal request (petition) for such to (an authority) with respect to a particular cause.” Ruling only by the consent of the people, the government has a constitutional obligation to correct such wrongs.

Petitioning for “redress of grievances” means that when the people find either the federal and/or provincial governments exceeding the authority granted to them under the constitution, and not inclined to listen to their grievances affecting their fundamental rights, they have the right to approach the Supreme Court for redress (remedy) of the constitutional wrongdoing. Such a petition of public importance relating to the enforcement of fundamental rights guaranteed under the constitution can be filed virtue of Article 187 (I).

If the government continues to ignore his submissions about bad governance, the COAS has an obligation like any other citizen to bring this before the Supreme Court in the form of a petition. Given the chief justice’s deep concern about the impact of bad governance on national security, why not use the given constitutional ways of seeking "redress of grievances?"

Democracy’s fail-safe line is the legal barrier of the Supreme Court, but when bad governance makes democracy delusional, do we have the moral courage to cross that line to save the country from the predators in control?

Click here to read this piece at The News International.

Sehgal expressed cautious optimism on the future of the U.S.-Pakistan relationship, maintaining that "as long as Pakistan understands that the U.S. has got its own interests in this area...I think the US-Pakistan relationship is going to get better."

Looking at the coming election, Seghal held that "if there is a free and fair election, then Imran [Khan] definitely has chances of becoming a third large force."

Sehgal will host an event on the topic of Pakistan's political and economic future at the EastWest Instiute's New York City headquarters. Visit the Facebook event to learn more.

Shrugging off its traditional reliance for foreign-exchange earnings on jute goods and tea, Bangladesh has economically made giant strides, with home remittances and garment manufacturing giving momentum to a whole basket of non-traditional exports. But a cursory visit there is enough to dispel the general perception in Pakistan that Bangladesh is doing economically far better than Pakistan.

Despite multiple crises compounded by rampant corruption and a terror-driven law-and-order situation, Pakistan’s economy is far more resilient and multifaceted, notwithstanding the fact that the Bangladeshi taka is performing better than the Pakistani rupee. The pervasive mass poverty in Bangladesh far outstrips the comparable percentage of poverty in Pakistan. The focus of Bangladesh’s economy seems to be the city of Dhaka, with high-rise buildings mushrooming on scarce land with greater value than almost any other capital city in the world. Traffic jams are endemic. There is one thing in common to the two democracies – rampant nepotism and corruption – and these put them increasingly under threat, which is force-multiplied by the widening rich-poor gap and inflation triggering a mass upsurge.

To quote Khadimal Hasan in New Age: “Promises made by the Awami League during the 2008 general elections remain unfulfilled, good governance has remained elusive, the rule of law is yet to be established and human rights violation continues to be rampant.” Despite the Awami League government’s many failings, the main opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) could not play any significant role inside and outside parliament in projecting people’s concerns. The BNP has concentrated its anger on partisan issues, such as the “eviction of party chairperson Khaleda Zia from her Dhaka Cantonment House and the cases filed against her and her two sons for corruption taking precedence over pressing public concerns.”

Like in Pakistan, without political consensus about elections under a genuinely neutral caretaker government, the atmosphere in Bangladesh is charged with politics of confrontation. Fearing overturn of their present overwhelming mandate, the Awami League government forced an amendment through parliament abolishing the concept of caretaker governments. This could lead to a rerun of 2005 when the BNP, as the ruling party then, tried to engineer the vote. Street agitation for installation of a non-partisan government to conduct polls created a situation for an army-dictated superior judiciary-supported caretaker administration of technocrats taking power. Free and fair elections were ultimately held in 2008.

The ‘Bangladeshi Model’ failed when, within one year, the army forgot its resolve to stay away from politics. Armies can intervene for course corrections but are not equipped to run governments. At most they can run people who run governments, and that too for a short time.

Dr Debapriya Bhattacharya of the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) observed that the country’s economy was approaching lower-level equilibrium in 2013, short of the GDP growth target of 7.2 percent, failing to reach even six percent, compared to the record 6.32 percent of the 2011-2012 financial year. With the CPD projecting that revenues collection will fall short of target, an additional TK100 billion will be needed to meet budgetary allocations. Remittance inflows of over $12 billion were a bright spot, with the budget deficit and balance of payments remaining in the safe zone.

Political uncertainty could destabilise Bangladesh’s macroeconomic stability, having a serious impact on the economy. To quote Abul Kalam Azad and Sharier Khan in The Daily Star: “A series of mega projects aimed at revolutionising communications, ports and energy sectors were rolled out, but due to weak governance, indecision, an inability to execute plans, corruption, fund shortages and donors’ conditions affected the progress of most of them.”

Nevertheless, given the prevailing recession in the developed world, it is not a bad performance. With some headway in projects in the power sector, one must commend the tremendous initiative of the present government for a ‘digital’ nation by 2020, the progress matching India in quality, if not in quantum. An 18 percent interest on loans to the manufacturing sector, rising to more than 20 percent for small businesses, almost double that in India, is pushing up production costs and adversely affecting people’s purchasing power. To its credit, the Bangladesh Bank kept a cap of seven percent for export financing and 13 percent for farm loans when withdrawing the cap on rates imposed in 2008 to help businesses cope with world recession.

The campaign in Assam against Bangladeshi settlers and the water issue will adversely impact India-Bangladesh relations. Expert Mohammad Khaliquzaman said that the entire northern area was turning into a desert due to lack of water, with India releasing 20 percent less water in the past five years than that stipulated for Farakka Barrage in the Farakka Water Treaty. The Indian intention to unilaterally build other dams upstream, including one at Tipaimukh, is alarming. Construction of dams is not needed for saving rivers but to save the lives of people. 

The ugly controversy over how many people died during the 1971 civil war is politically motivated to vitiate the congenial atmosphere developing between peoples of Pakistan and Bangladesh. The truth is not something to be proud of. While nowhere near the quantum being propagated, the three-million figure is ingrained in the Bangladeshi national psyche. The local population did suffer mass atrocities at the hands of elements of the Pakistani army. However, in many isolated places non-Bengalis were massacred by mob action. There were targeted killings and rapes. In her book Dead Reckoning, Sarmila Bose, granddaughter of Indian revolutionary Subhas Chandra Bose, dismissed the allegations of ethnic-cleansing, rape and killings against the Pakistani army as highly exaggerated. Commensurate atrocities carried out against the non-Bengali population, especially the Biharis, were never documented.

The driving force in the arguments, in her words, is “bitter emotional partisanship.” With both sides remaining in absolute denial of truth, instead of reconciling fact with fiction, there is no closure in sight. Pakistan should request the UN to commission professional verification of the claims of Bengalis and non-Bengalis perishing in this horrific civil war, offering to pay for the services of internationally renowned independent auditors. It will be money well spent.

Another thing common in Pakistan and Bangladesh is widespread resentment against what is perceived as Indian arrogance by the intelligentsia and the masses. This is much less so in Pakistan then in Bangladesh, where the generally held belief is that the Indian government dictates everything to the Bangladeshi government. PCB chairman Zaka Ashraf was either dangerously naive or plain ignorant in fantasising that India would ever allow the Bangladeshi cricket team to tour Pakistan. Neither Pakistanis nor Bangladeshis (as opposed to their present government) like a master-slave relationship. India’s image of a bully is not conducive to a future common market in South Asia.

The inland transit facilities demanded by India highlight an important geopolitical home truth. Bangladesh’s pivotal economic location is extraordinary. Surrounded by West Bengal and the impoverished ‘Seven Sisters’ states of northeast India, Bangladesh’s two bustling ports make for an economic centre of a possible Association of Eastern States of South Asia. The AESSA concept means an economic (if not political) confederation of almost 400 million people. Standing on a failsafe line of destiny with corrupt governance alternating between the two badly polarised ladies, Bangladesh desperately needs an honest, competent government truly dedicated to the people.

Click here to read this column at The News International.