Conflict Prevention

Ivanov Talks World Problems on Sputnik

EWI's Moscow Office Director Vladimir Ivanov tackles various world issues—from the ongoing U.S. presidential campaign to Osama bin Laden—in an interview with Russia's Sputnik International Radio. 

On March 3, 2016, Ivanov participated in a discussion hosted by the radio that also featured other guests including political commentator Chris Shipler, Doha-based current affairs analyst Ashraf Siddiqui and Moscow-based scholar Anton Zyukov.

Ivanov, who has a PhD in History from the Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO), discussed at length issues such as the Super Tuesday results as part of the current U.S. presidential election season, the newest revelations about infamous al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden, and the latest conflict in Libya. Ivanov said the discussion was "constructive and friendly."

To listen to three segments of the discussion on those topics respectively, click here, here, and here. The discussion was in English.

Kawa Hassan Gets Kurd Connection

Kawa Hassan, EWI's director of the Middle East and North Africa Program, speaks in a TV interview about combating terrorist group ISIS and on the prospect of Kurdish independence. Hassan appears on KURD CONNECTION -- a joint program between the Kurdish service at Voice of America and the independent Kurdish Satellite TV Channel NRT.

In the interview, held on January 15, 2016 in Washington DC, Hassan discussed the latest developments on ISIS and the Kurds in Iraq. Speaking in Kurdish, here are some of Hassan's comments:

  • Indeed ISIS has been weakened in both Iraq and Syria, but far from defeated. The world is dealing with an ideological, barbaric and highly efficient terrorist organization. 
  • Unless the root causes that gave rise to ISIS are addressed, a defeat of ISIS will not herald a new era of global security. It will be a victory with the taste of defeat. This means Post-ISIS phase will not be that much different from ISIS era. Therefore, the international community must address the political, economic and social grievances, radical religious doctrines and horrible human rights violations committed by both 'secular' and religious regimes in the MENA region.     
  • Kurdish independence from Iraq is a tough task. Kurdish ruling elites in Iraqi Kurdistan should address this issue through an inclusive process. No single Kurdish political party and leader can achieve independence alone. Kurdish ruling elites, especially Kurdistan Democratic Party and its leader Barzani should treat the struggle for independence as a national and non-partisan issue rather than as a personal and partisan project. 

Hassan, who leads track two initiatives on countering violent extremism for EWI, was in Washington DC to attend the launch of The Task Force on the Future of Iraq. This high-level task force aims to provide specific recommendations to the incoming American administration's transition team in late November 2016. 

Click here for further information about the task force.

Click here to watch the full interview with KURD CONNECTION.

 

 

Afghanistan Reconnected: Sustaining Regional Cooperation in an Insecure Environment

Overview

The EastWest Institute has convened a series of high-level consultations to address regional economic security issues in Afghanistan post-2014; this work is known as the “Afghanistan Reconnected Process”. Between 2013 and 2015, the Process has involved high-level representatives of governments, parliaments and the private sector from Afghanistan, Central and South Asia, as well as from regional and international organizations, to discuss the opportunities and challenges for cross-border economic cooperation in Afghanistan and the region.

The EastWest Institute is pleased to invite you to a roundtable with practitioners to be held at EWI’s Brussels Center. The event will aim at presenting the Afghanistan Reconnected Process to the Brussels-based audience and at enabling dialogue on participants' perspectives on Afghanistan's future in light of the current situation.

The event will include presentations from selected high-ranking speakers from Afghanistan, India, Pakistan, and Turkey. The presenters, who have been active participants in EWI’s Afghanistan Reconnected Process, will share views from their direct experience dealing with energy, trade and transit in Greater Central Asia. Presentations will be followed by a discussion moderated by Ambassador Martin Fleischer, Vice-President for Regional Security at the EastWest Institute.

Welcome and registration will be from 16:00 – 16:15. The event will be followed by a networking reception.

The meeting will be conducted under Chatham House Rule.

Atlantic Council Picks EWI's Kawa Hassan for Task Force on the Future of Iraq

New York (February 19, 2016) - The Atlantic Council's Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East has invited Kawa Hassan, the EastWest Institute's Director of Middle East and North Africa's Regional Program, to join The Task Force on the Future of Iraq. This Task Force will bring together 25 top Iraq experts from around the globe who will make specific recommendations to the incoming American administration's transition team in late November 2016.

"We're delighted that Kawa has been selected to contribute to this important project," EWI CEO and President Cameron Munter said. "Kawa Hassan's work at EWI has been informed and nuanced, and I'm sure he'll bring these qualities to the Atlantic Council study. Kawa is one of the most promising voices speaking on the Middle East today."

The Task Force will convene four times in 2016 to analyze the drivers of instability and sources of opportunity in Iraq and devise policy recommendations for Baghdad, Erbil and regional and international partners. Besides the Rafik Hariri Center, supporters of the Task Force include the Konrad Adenauer Stiftung, the American University of Iraq, Sulaimani and the Bayan Center.

Among other Task Force initiatives, Hassan will be drafting a paper on governance in the Kurdistan Region, as part of his participation.

"I am honored and thrilled to join this timely, needed initiative and to be a member of a team of internationally renowned Iraq experts," Hassan said.

"Iraq, the Middle East and the wider world are at a crossroads. In order to defeat ISIS and build new and inclusive political contracts, the root causes that led to the emergence of this Frankenstein and apocalyptic actor that calls itself the Islamic State should be addressed through fresh perspectives and new policies. This lies at the heart of EWI's strategy that aims at addressing seemingly intractable problems and anticipating tomorrow's security challenges."

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For press inquiries contact:

Sarah Stern
Acting Director of Communications
Email: sstern@eastwest.ngo
Phone: +1 212 824 4145
Mobile: +1 646 662 1913

Discussion of Prospects for Building Trust between Russia and the U.S. at RIAC

On Feburary 18, 2016, EWI Chief Operating Officer Dr. William J. Parker III spoke at the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) on ways to build trust and cooperation between the United States and Russia. 

On February 18, 2016, the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) held a meeting of experts with Dr. William J. Parker III, Chief Operating Officer at the EastWest Institute. Dr. Parker is a retired senior naval officer, author of numerous publications on the problems of Islamic extremism in the Middle East, and worked for US diplomatic missions in Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan.

The discussion covered the issues of building trust between Russia and the United States as the countries with the greatest potential to successfully confront international challenges, namely the growth of drug trafficking (especially heroin black trading), the spread of weapons of mass destruction, of chemical and biological weapons, and their falling into the hands of terrorist groups. The participants of the meeting emphasized the need to establish a high level bilateral dialogue between Russia and the United States on cooperation in cyberspace. The experts also discussed the future US strategy in Afghanistan and Central Asia after the presidential election in 2016.

Experts who took part in the meeting on the invitation of RIAC and the EastWest Institute included: Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Russia Mikhail Konarovsky; Senior Research Fellow at the Institute for Information Security Issues of M.V. Lomonosov Moscow State University Andrey Kulpin; Senior Lecturer at MGIMO-University Mikhail Troitsky; RIAC expert Yuri Barmin; Director of Analytical Center at MGIMO-University Andrey Kazantsev; Director of Moscow Center of EastWest Institute Vladimir Ivanov, and others.

The Russian International Affairs Council was represented by Program Director Ivan Timofeev and RIAC Website Editor Maria Gurova.

Given the results of the meeting, it was noted that this format of expert discussions promoted normalization of relations between Russia and the United States at the expert level, and it was decided to continue discussions between RIAC-EastWest Institute expert groups in the future.

To read this summary on Russian International Affairs Council's website, click here

Piin-Fen Kok Speaks on U.S.-ASEAN Summit

Piin-Fen Kok, director of the EastWest Institute’s China, East Asia and United States Program, spoke with Channel NewsAsia’s First Look Asia program on the outcomes and joint statement (full text available here) from the U.S.-ASEAN Summit in Sunnylands, California. A summary of her responses to each interview question is given below.

This isn't the first such statement the U.S. and ASEAN have made on the South China Sea. Do you see China responding any differently this time around?

Kok identified three matters in the U.S.-ASEAN joint statement that she believes China may take issue with. First, the statement referred to freedom of navigation and overflight, which is an ongoing point of contention between China and the United States. Second, the statement mentioned non-militarization in South China Sea activities, which could be construed as admonishment towards China’s recent building of military facilities on reclaimed islands in the region. Third, the statement reaffirmed commitments to legal and diplomatic processes, with a specific reference to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Seas. This reaffirmation comes in light of an impending legal decision by the International Court of Arbitration at The Hague adjudicating between the Philippines and China on the legality of China’s Nine-Dash Line. Kok believes these three elements of the U.S.-ASEAN joint statement may prompt a strong rebuke from China.

Is the statement a sign the U.S. intends to play a bigger role in securing freedom of navigation in the disputed waters?

Kok pointed out that, as U.S. President Barack Obama noted in his closing press conference, the United States will not be ceasing its freedom of navigation operations. Politically speaking, neither the United States nor China is in a position to ease their established positions on the South China Sea. The United States has asserted that freedom of navigation is a national interest, while territorial sovereignty and integrity is a core interest for China. Kok believes that the situation may be headed towards a so-called “stable stalemate” in which neither side can change the behavior of the other. The challenge under such circumstances will be to manage the situation in a way that prevents an escalation of tensions.

What about the war against extremism and Islamic State? With the recent attacks in Jakarta, what can ASEAN and the U.S. do to tackle the scourge of terrorism in the region?

Kok notes that Southeast Asia has always been a hotbed for the threat of terrorism and violent extremism. She also notes that the Islamic State is now not only a regional threat, but a global one that requires ASEAN and the United States to demonstrate the political will to work together as part of a coordinated global effort toward its eradication.

What other progress do you think was made at the U.S.-ASEAN Summit?

Kok highlighted the reaffirmation of ASEAN centrality and ASEAN-led mechanisms at the summit. The Obama administration has taken concrete steps to institutionalize the United States’ relationship with ASEAN as a key part of its “rebalance” to Asia. This will help sustain the U.S.-ASEAN partnership beyond the Obama presidency.

Standing on Common Ground? Explaining Just War and Jihad

Christianity and Islam wage wars based on different fundamental reasons, argues Dr. Patrik K. Meyer, as he attempts to characterize each doctrine. He concludes that such differences, if not addressed properly, can foster conflicts between Muslims and non-Muslims.

There are fundamental differences between the Christian and Islamic war doctrines and they influence policy.

When the Roman Emperor Constantine converted to Christianity, Christian philosophers started to explore the option of conducting a legitimate war, resulting in “the teachings of St Augustine deal[ing] heavy blows to the early pacifist or quasi-pacifist aspects of Christianity” and in the birth of the just war theory. The just war theory states that, under certain conditions, sovereign territories have the needed moral and ethical justification to use mass violence. World War II is a typical example of a war that was just. When it comes to jihad, its origins are fundamentally different.

After returning from one of the wars, Prophet Mohammad shared the following with his companions: “We have returned from the lesser jihad to the greater jihad.” Noah Feldman describes the greater jihad, like many moderate Muslim scholars do too: as the “inward struggle to perfect one’s moral qualities” and the work towards a just governance.

What’s the difference between the “lesser” and “greater” jihad, on the one hand, and the Christian just war tradition, on the other hand?

An initial comparison shows that the two provide a similar framework to decide why, when, and how to go and conduct a legitimate war, but they differ in their foundations and details. More importantly, these differences could lead to conflicts between Muslims and non-Muslims if not taken into consideration.

A fundamental difference between jihad and just war is the influence of religion in shaping these two traditions, influence that is proportional to their capacity to draw from religious sources. Just war is founded on Christianity, a non-state religion that does not provide specific guidelines on how to conduct state affairs. Moreover, the New Testament does not provide a clear description of Jesus’ position on warfare or what just causes for war could be. Most of the philosophical foundations of the just war theory are based on classical Greco-Roman and Christian values proposed by Aristotle, Cicero, and St. Thomas Aquinas. Jihad is founded on Islam, which is radically different in this sense.

Islam provides a dualistic framework that includes a “universal religion and a universal state.” Majid Khadduri defines jihad as a tool that Muslims can use to confront polytheist beliefs, including Christian ones because of their belief in the trinity, and to punish the enemies of Islam. The Quran replaces many of the parables found in the New Testament by specific rules on why, when, and how to conduct war. Unlike just war, jihad does not make use of secular reasoning to build its foundations, but rather draws directly from divine guidelines found in the Quran and Islamic traditions.

While Christians struggle to determine if the New Testament encourages pacifism or just war, Muslims may read into the details of the ethics of warfare in the Quran and the traditions of the Prophet. It is interesting to note, however, that St. Thomas Aquinas “formulated his theory of just war along lines similar to the Islamic doctrine of the jihad,” resulting in numerous similarities between the two in what refers to what the just intentions, causes, and authorities are to conduct a legitimate war.

In just war, the core just intention to go to war is the “righting of wrongs.” Hence, heads of states, commanders, and soldiers do not necessarily need to go to war with the intention of pleasing god. This is not the case for the jihad, which clearly states that the core intention to wage war must be to please god. A war that is conducted without this premise is not considered jihad, but rather just a war. When it comes to just cause, the main disagreement between just war and jihad is that the first aims at restoring justice, while the latter aims at enforcing god’s law and correcting any transgressions against this law. Both agree, however, that once a just cause has been established, the legitimate authority can only consider going to war when all non-violent alternatives have been exhausted.

When it comes to defining who the legitimate authority is to decide to wage or not wage war, just war limits this authority to the heads of state and their representatives, and condemns popular revolts as illegitimate. Jihad also attributes the default authority to rulers, but it makes revolts permissible in the case that a ruler is exceedingly unjust or has deviated from the path of god. The idea behind this is that “some revolutions are surely less evil than the regimes they overthrow.”

Yet another disagreement between just war and jihad appears in the rules defining who and what should be protected from the harms of war and the treatment of prisoners of war. Just war prohibits the intentional harming or killing of civilians, in particular women and children, and the damage to property and trees amongst others. In jihad similar rules apply, but it allows for the enslavement of women and children, particularly if they are non-Muslim. As for the treatment of prisoners of war, the two agree that they should be protected, but jihad defers the final decision on whether to kill them or not to the commander’s discretion.

It can be concluded that just war and jihad provide similar frameworks to decide why, when, and how to go and conduct a legitimate war. For a war to qualify as a just war or jihad, it must be driven by the right intentions, have a just cause, and be decided by a legitimate authority.

It is in the nature and details of this overall framework that two fundamental differences between these two war doctrines are to be found. The first is that just war is a human creation and that jihad is a divine one. The second appears when defining what the just intention and cause to wage war are, which in the just war tradition are restoring and securing peace and justice, while in jihad are serving god and restoring his sovereignty. These fundamental differences can be irreconcilable at times because they confront rational and doctrinal arguments, and if not addressed adequately, can foster conflicts between Muslims and non-Muslims.

To read this article on The Diplomat, click here

Dr. Patrik K. Meyer is a researcher at Peking University in Beijing, China. He earned his Ph.D. in Politics and International Studies from the University of Cambridge, during which he worked with Chinese scholars to provide an expanded understanding of conflicts in Xinjiang, China, that fuel tensions between the Uyghurs and the Chinese government. He also holds an M.P.A. in Development and Conflicts from Harvard University’s J.F. Kennedy School of Government, an M.S. in Structural Dynamics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and a B.S. in Civil Engineering from the University of California, Berkeley.

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Kawa Hassan Comments on the Kurds in Iraq

Al Jazeera America spoke to Kawa Hassan, EWI's director of the Middle East and North Africa Program, about what this year holds for the Kurds in Iraq.

Hassan was quoted on Al Jazeera America on January 15.

As published:

Critics, however, accuse Barzani of mounting a renewed independence campaign precisely in order to distract attention from these more pressing internal questions. He has already used the fight against ISIL as justification for remaining in his post past his scheduled term limit, stoking a succession debate that briefly erupted into violence in August. As Kawa Hassan, the director of the Middle East and North Africa program at the EastWest Institute, put it, “Iraq is a failed state, but Kurdistan is also a failed region.” 

Kurdistan watchers say there are too many wild cards to know for sure where this current sovereignty push is heading. Hassan, who is also a nonresident scholar at the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut, said he saw a “fragmented future” for the KRG. But he has learned at least one lesson from the past year and a half. “I don’t dare to make any predictions,” he said. “Who thought a couple of months back that Russia would enter the war in Syria? That Turkey would down a Russian jet? Who thought Saudi [Arabia] would start a war in Yemen or build a new coalition against [ISIL]?”

“The Middle East is changing so rapidly and so fundamentally,” he said. “And this provides an opportunity for the Kurds to try and push for independence or at least some kind of confederation between Kurdish areas. If they are united, they can capitalize on this opportunity.”

To read the full article, click here.

The End of the Cold War Proves Diplomacy Can Work Today

In an opinion piece for the Financial Times, EWI Board Member Amb. Wolfgang Ischinger calls for a modern day Helsinki Accords in order to avoid a return to the Cold War and insure stability and cooperation in Europe. 

The new world order: new rules or no rules?”, asked Russian President Vladimir Putin at his annual Valdai discussion club. It does not take much debate to work out that “no rules” is not an attractive idea. A society without rules would mean Thomas Hobbes’ war of all against all.

International rules are violated from time to time but that does not make them less vital. In Europe the rules governing relations between east and west are the 1975 Helsinki accords. The period that followed the agreement was, by historical standards, one of relative stability. Twenty-five years after the cold war’s end, the situation is more precarious. Russia’s seizure of Crimea and intervention in eastern Ukraine bring uncertainty and insecurity.

So how to restore security and co-operation in Europe? A panel of political leaders and diplomats, asked this question by the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe, reached the conclusion that we do not need new rules. We need to create a context where the existing rules can work.

To read the entire article on the Financial Times, click here. (Paywall)

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