Conflict Prevention

Last week, Rodrigo Duterte, the combative and mercurial new president of the Philippines, made high-profile visits to China and Japan, which have the two largest economies in Asia. In Beijing, Duterte offered alarming comments about his desire to “separate” from the United States, the Philippines’ sole military ally and security guarantor. In his typical off-the-cuff manner, he publicly mused that it would be preferable to join in some trilateral relationship with China and Russia, rather than focus on Manila’s relationship with Washington. 

China, looking to seize on Duterte’s vitriol against the U.S., offered him a massive suite of soft loans, investments and aid, totaling $24 billion. China then reportedly began restraining the actions of its coast guard against Philippine fishing vessels around the contentious Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea. The move is largely seen as a soft concession to Duterte for his diplomatic U-turn with Washington.

To read the full article in World Politics Review, click here.

In a prime time interview with "Kurd Connect", a joint program between Voice of America's Kurdish Service and NRT, the independent Kurdish Satellite channel, Hassan underlined three conditions that would translate the military defeat of ISIS in Mosul into a lasting political settlement. Hassan made his comments as coalition forces are making gains in the offensive to recapture Iraq's second largest city from the terrorist organization.

Hassan said it was highly possible that ISIS would ultimately lose Mosul. But, he added, the bigger question was what would happen afterwards.

The liberation of Mosul, said Hassan, could lead to a new beginning for Iraq and the emergence of an inclusive Iraqi state provided three conditions were met: 

• Iraqi authorities should regain the trust of the Moslawis, the people of Mosul. This is important because the sectarian policies of Iraq's previous government and the collapse of the people's confidence in the Iraqi army and post-2003 Iraqi state led to the ISIS takeover in June 2014.  
• The United States, United Nations, European Union, donor countries and regional states should set up a special fund for the stabilization and reconstruction of Mosul. The humanitarian and reconstruction needs in Mosul are immense. The international community and regional states can play a positive role in rebuilding Mosul by committing to financial resources. This will send a signal to the Moslawis that they will not be abandoned once ISIS is defeated. 
• International and regional powers should play a positive role in bridging the divide between the diverse Iraqi communities to reach mutual compromises regarding territorial disputes, distribution of wealth and power sharing.

Hassan's comments can be accessed in full here, beginning around the 6:45 mark. The interview is in Kurdish.

David Firestein joined students at Emory University's The Carter Center on October 17 to discuss "The South China Sea: The Diverging Strategic Assumptions and Perceptions of the United States and China."

Go here for a review by the U.S.-China Perception Monitor.

Video is courtesy of Emory University.

On October 18, Dr. William J. Parker III spoke at a gathering organized by IVY: The Social University on "The Future of National Security" in New York City.

The gathering was part of IVY's "Thought Leader Dinner & Discussion" series. Parker discussed a wide range of security issues and topics that are impacting present day events, and shaping future strategies, including:

• Why are terrorist organizations winning over supporters—and how are they doing it? 
• In what ways have our enemies mastered strategic communications? 
• How do we need to be responding, as a nation, as communities and as individuals? 
• Who is responsible for world security? 

To learn more about IVY, click here.

On October 11, Dr. William J. Parker III, the East West Institute's Chief Operating Officer, appeared on the David Webb Show to discuss the various threats faced by the United States and its regional allies.

"There are a lot of countries and a lot of smaller groups right now that seem to be emboldened. They see perhaps a lack of response or a slow response in some cases and so they become emboldened and feel they can take additional actions that they would not have taken before," said Dr. Parker. 

While discussing common threats such as terrorism, hostile countries and weapons of mass destruction, Dr. Parker argued that the number one threat remained the national and global debt which directly impacts stability and confidence as well as fosters disruption and instability.

He also commented on what he perceives as the critical tactical threat — cybersecurity, owing to the fact that its impacts remain relatively unknown on infrastructure and the economy.

Dr. Parker previously appeared on the show earlier this year to analyze a series of new U.S. sanctions against North Korea following reports of nuclear tests. His comments are available here.  

The EastWest Institute is proud to partner with the Global Peace Foundation to organize the 2017 Global Peace Convention in Manila, the Philippines.

Scheduled for Feb. 28-March 3 next year, the event will bring together leading global experts and practitioners to share best practices and develop multi-sector partnerships for sustainable peace and development and the achievement of the UN 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). A combination of plenary and parallel sessions will provide an opportunity for participants to share, learn and collaborate on achieving a collective impact.

Kawa Hassan, the director of EWI's Middle East and North Africa Program, will participate in the convention. Last month, Hassan took part in the Global Peace Leadership Conference in Belfast organized by the Global Peace Foundation.

Click here to learn more about the 2017 convention.

When asked about the current challenges within the EU and whether the enlargement process should slow down or accelerate, Cameron Munter expressed his confidence that the EU integration process should continute to develop at an accelerated pace. “I’ve always believed that the best way for Europeans to prosper, build strong democratic institutions, and help one another is through membership in the European Union. It’s also a great way to get beyond the misunderstandings of the past, and make national boundaries less important than shared values. That said, such events as the Greek financial crisis and the Brexit vote have raised questions about the EU: does it need reform? Is it the model many wanted it to be? The answers are: yes; and yes. I still believe that the EU is a positive and powerful institution that promotes the best elements of European civilization: tolerance, solidarity, diversity. The countries of the Western Balkans will only benefit from continued efforts to harmonize with the EU. Certainly, this is no time to slow down,” Munter explained.

Regarding the Western Balkans’ geopolitical position, Munter pointed out that the region has to face a critical test. On one hand, these countries could leverage their position or, on the other hand, be a part of a broader solution of serious political and economic problems in the region. “In my mind, if the Balkan countries try to manipulate crisis for advantage, they’re showing that the old days of closed-mindedness and suspicion have the upper hand. Rather, those of us who have always advocated Balkan membership in European institutions and a stronger Balkan voice in international affairs hope that this test — dealing with migration, with radical Islam, with economic challenges — will show the best of Balkan determination to solve problems, be part of the solutions of the future, and prove that the old days of conflict (so often associated with the word Balkans) might just be in the past,” said Munter.

Western Balkans countries cannot answer the current challenges of the refugee crisis by themselves and accordingly, the support of the EU has been evident. However, we asked our interlocutor about the role of other players in the Middle East, like the United States and Russia. “These are extremely difficult and sad times in Syria. The problems are among the most complicated I’ve ever seen. I believe that the migration issue — one part of this challenge — will only be solved by peace in the region. And sadly, peace seems elusive. I hope that the U.S. and Russia can find ways to contribute to a lasting peace. If they do, we’ll see some progress on the migration issue,” Munter highlighted.

Go here to read the full article.