Politics and Governance

Moderated by Shamila Chaudary, president of the American Pakistan Foundation, the panel invited expert perspectives to address the pandemic’s repercussions on the global economy and political stability around the world, particularly in crisis-prone regions like South Asia. Joining the panel were Dr. William J. Parker, president and CEO at the EastWest Institute; Dr. Vali Nasr, professor at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies and former senior advisor at the U.S. State Department; and Dr. Alyssa Ayres, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR).

The novel coronavirus (COVID-19), which emerged as an unprecedented crisis to public health, has now become a major geostrategic and economic challenge for the world. The advent of the virus is proving to be a defining moment in modern history, disrupting normal life across the globe and consequently, straining globalization deeply at a time when international economies were becoming increasingly intertwined. Pandemics like this require strong national, regional and global leadership with the capability and flexibility for cooperative action against the “invisible enemy.”

To understand and navigate the ongoing challenges, Dr. Parker suggests that it is essential to fully comprehend the science behind the virus, its spread and the subsequent need for worldwide testing. Around the globe, there are over 3.68 million positive cases and around 258,000 fatalities. Per Dr. Parker, the virus is likely to end if one of three things occur: development of an effective vaccine; herd immunity takes over—70-90 percent of the population becomes immune after vaccination or after having survived the infection; or, in roughly 12-18 months, the curve fluctuates and eventually declines.

Dr. Parker emphasizes we all need to follow strict guidelines as societies across the globe gradually reopen, or the decline of COVID-19 could be perverse. He advises that governments conduct widespread testing to determine positive, negative and asymptomatic cases and make tests available to corporations, education systems and health care facilities. With the right strategic planning in place, backed by new federal law, businesses and corporations around the world could operate if they ensure that appropriate personal protective equipment (PPE) is provided for every customer and employee. Dr. Parker highlights that while each country looks to protect its people, the pandemic provides an opportunity to learn from each other and encourages greater information sharing across borders.

Reflecting on the COVID-19 situation in Pakistan, Dr. Nasr is baffled by what he considers to be a relatively sparse number of active cases and low national death toll—especially considering the government’s lack of vigilance and proactiveness. Nevertheless, while the pandemic might not be a severe public health crisis for Pakistan, he believes that it still poses the potential to be a political and economic catastrophe. On the other hand, as bilateral tensions between the U.S. and China escalate, it will be interesting to monitor the engagement of the two hegemons in South Asia, particularly in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Dr. Nasr also points out that the economic plight of the Middle East is also of deep concern to Pakistan, given the sharp decline in migrant labor remittances which contribute to Pakistan’s GDP considerably. Further, he adds that a prolonged economic crisis in fragile countries, like Pakistan and in several Arab countries, can also lead to political upheaval and urges effective policymaking and long-term vision to combat the ramifications effectively.

In South Asia, while the pandemic has caused health and economic distress, Dr. Ayres suggests that it has also reenergized hopes for greater regional integration vis-à-vis the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC). The SAARC member states are periodically coming together to discuss and execute joint action against the virus. Considering the India-Pakistan bilateral equation, however, Dr. Ayres points out that despite the United Nations Security Council’s call for global ceasefire in the face of the pandemic, the continued cross-border shelling between India and Pakistan is a matter of status quo.

On the India-China front, Dr. Ayres observes that India appears to be increasingly calling for the international community to hold China accountable for the coronavirus; how this view evolves will determine the relationship going forward. Nonetheless, Dr. Ayres applauds India’s actions during the initial days of the outbreak as a regional provider for evacuation of not only its own nationals abroad, but also of neighboring countries such as Maldives, Burma, Bangladesh, China and Peru, among others. In addition, India’s provision of hydroxychloroquine—a potential cure against COVID-19—to other countries is another example of international cooperation on the pandemic.

Domestically, Dr. Ayres says the federal system has revealed that some states are better prepared than others for disaster management and have produced better outcomes in terms of testing, providing relief and flattening the curve of new cases. Echoing Dr. Nasr’s remarks, Dr. Ayres shares the opinion that the pandemic has also emerged as a grave economic crisis for India, citing country-wide business closures, the tragedy of the migrant laborers and the inequitable distribution of relief and food rations among the various sectors of Indian society.

All three experts reflected whether hydroxychloroquine and BCG vaccines have the potency to provide greater immunity against COVID-19, given the slow growth rate of positive cases in South Asia, as opposed to the rest of the world. Dr. Parker believes that while this argument has validity, the real essence is in the testing capacity of each country to determine actual and factual rates of cases.

Undoubtedly, the novel coronavirus has served as a wakeup call; now more than ever. As the world moves towards a “new normal” and experiences a shift in the current geopolitical landscape, all experts emphasized the need for stronger and more effective governance, growth-oriented policies and joint action against the contagion.

Click here to view the full recording of the panel discussion.

The “Balkan Dialogues Security Roundtable” attracted an unprecedented number of high-level participants, more than any other side-event during the three-day conference. Although envisioned originally as a closed session between Balkans representatives—along with several representatives from the EU and the U.S.—the event quickly attracted outside interest.

Key delegates in this lively, occasionally charged, discussion included the following: Carl Bildt; former prime minister of Sweden; Boyko Borisov, prime minister of Bulgaria; Miroslav Cerar, deputy prime minister of Slovenia; Milo Djukanovic, president of Montenegro; Albin Kurti, prime minister of Kosovo; Stevo Penderovski, president of North Macedonia; Edi Rama, prime minister of Albania; Marjan Sarec, president of Slovenia; Hashim Thaci, president of Kosovo; Aleksandar Vucic, president of Serbia; and Ekaterina Zaharieva, deputy prime minister of Bulgaria. Other featured participants include Josep Borrell, EU high representative for foreign policy; Andreas Michaelis, state secretary of Germany; Phillip Reeker, assistant secretary of state at the U.S. State Department; Thomas Greminger, secretary general of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE); as well as seven ministers of foreign affairs and defense, several ambassadors—including Wolfgang Ischinger and Frank Wisner—American political scientist Professor Francis Fukuyama and Stephen Heintz, president of the Rockefeller Brothers Fund.

The event took place during a “delicate moment” as two Balkan countries, North Macedonia and Albania, nervously awaited the EU Commission’s decision on a starting date for the accession process to the enter the EU. The positive messages delivered by French President Emanuel Macron at the conference, following EWI’s event, were perceived by many as a breakthrough moment for the entire region—Macron’s remarks encouraged a positive image of the EU, while inspiring much-needed political reforms throughout the Balkan region. These issues, at the top of the Balkan Dialogues agenda, demonstrate the necessity for continued efforts on two further, critical concerns for the region: reaching a Serbia-Kosovo agreement and preventing a re-emergence of conflict in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Additionally, the “Balkan Dialogues Security Roundtable” represented the first occasion for Serbian President Vucic and newly-elected Kosovar Prime Minister Kurti to meet publicly. As expected, tensions ran high as each leader presented contrasting views on the optimal path forward for Kosovo-Serbia dialogue.

Given the visibility and reputation of the MSC conference and the level of interest for the Balkan Dialogues event, this session marked an important milestone for EWI’s ongoing efforts in the Balkans.

Artificial intelligence (AI) is an increasingly important component of weapons systems, with both positive and negative implications for nuclear deterrence. Integration of AI into military platforms has the potential to allow weaker nuclear-armed states to reset the imbalance of power, but at the same time it exacerbates fears that stronger states may further solidify their dominance and engage in more provocative actions.

China, Russia, and the US are all engaged in developing and integrating AI applications into their military modernization programs. These applications include machine learning, neural networks, and autonomy that feature in Command, Control, Communications, Computers, Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (C4ISR) systems. They also include the deployment of unmanned weapons-delivery and defense platforms.

Click here to read the full article on the East-West Center website.

EWI Senior Fellow, Dr. Lora Saalman, contributed a book chapter on “China and India: Two Models for AI Military Acquisition and Integration” for the Routledge Handbook of China–India Relations. The abstract and book are available here.

Dr. Saalman’s book chapter follows on the heels of her recent speaking tours in India, Japan and Korea, where she presented on the impact of AI on nuclear risk, as well as Chinese, Indian and U.S. approaches toward Lethal Autonomous Weapon Systems. 

During these visits, she spoke at the National Institute of Advanced Studies and the Takshashila Institution in Bengaluru, India; the Sejong Institute, the Korean Nuclear Policy Society, the Asia-Pacific Leadership Network for Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Disarmament, Korea National Defense University, Yonsei University, and Korea University in Seoul, South Korea; and the Hiroshima Prefectural Office, the National Security Secretariat, the Cabinet Office, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the National Institute for Defense Studies, the Japan Institute of International Affairs, the University of Tokyo, Asia University, Keio University, and Hosei University in Hiroshima and Tokyo, Japan.

Dr. Lora SAALMAN, EWI Senior Fellow and SIPRI Associate Senior Fellow, and Honorable YUZAKI Hidehiko, Governor of Hiroshima Prefecture

Roundtable with Professor MOON Chung-in, Special Advisor to President MOON Jae-in of South Korea and Co-Convener of the Asia-Pacific Leadership Network for Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Disarmament

Experts from the Korean Nuclear Policy Society, Sejong Institute, Korea National Defense University, Embassy of Sweden in Seoul, Seoul National University, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan, and SIPRI

Participants at the SIPRI report launch at the Swedish Residence in Seoul, South Korea

U.S. President Donald Trump’s visit has got off to a better start than one could have expected. His Sabarmati Ashram visit along with his wife with hands at Mahatma Gandhi’s spinning wheel sent a subtle message, given Gandhiji’s simplicity and Trump’s ostentation, Gandhiji’s abhorrence of violence contrasted with a President who boasts of having spent $2.5 trillion on rebuilding the U.S. military.

The visit was image-burnishing for the moment as it made him look less vain.

Trump’s speech at the Motera stadium surpassed expectations in many ways. Speeches on such occasions are audience-oriented, but constructing the right message and giving it substance beyond the usual pleasant rhetoric requires savviness.

Click here to read the full article on DailyO.in (originally published in Mail Today).

Following his retirement from the United States Navy in 1996, Owens has been advancing a constructive U.S-China relationship for decades; he has worked tirelessly to bring together senior retired officers from both China and the United States to discuss issues of critical concerns to both countries. 

U.S.-China 2039: The Endgame? combines Owens’ considerable military experience, deep knowledge of the inner workings of the national security apparatus and insights from serving in leadership positions in several Fortune 500 companies with the perspectives of senior military officers from both countries. 

“Admiral Owens’ observations are focused on helping both the United States and China to avoid likely military competition in the coming decades,” says EWI President and CEO Dr. William J. Parker. 

This book provides 12 specific policy recommendations including the following:

• A Northeast Asia Consultative Permanent organization including China, the U.S., Russia, Japan and South Korea focused on the issues of the Region

• A Free Trade Agreement between the U.S. and China

• A No First Use of Cyber Agreement between the U.S. and China

• A New Approach to the number one issue between the U.S. and China: Taiwan

• Discussion and Recommendations about the never-before addressed new world issue of a “transparent large battlefield” realized by both China and the U.S. and the resulting Mutual Assured Destruction which Must be avoided in that new world.

Click here for more information on U.S.-China 2039: The Endgame?: Building Trust Over Future Decades.

The interview focused on a policy recommendation that Hassan presented at a recent policy dialogue panel at European Policy Center about the consequences of the U.S.-Iran conflict in Iraq.

Click here to watch the interview on VOA (in Kurdish).

Read an English summary of Hassan's remarks, below:

Despite repression and intimidation, the protests continue in Iraq. The government and ruling class, particularly the Shiite parties, can't find a reasonable solution for the crisis. The result is a dangerous political stalemate. Day by day, the conflict gets bloodier and more complicated. If the current repression continues, which I am afraid will be the case, the peaceful protest movement—or part of it—might decide to take up arms to defend unarmed demonstrators, causing the situation to spin out of control.

The fragmentation of political forces, especially the Shiite parties, makes it extremely difficult to find a political solution that can be accepted by all parties and the protest movement. To break the deadlock, there is a need to pressure and persuade the most influential Shiite parties and government to accept international mediation.

The idea I suggested at the EPC policy dialogue event is to organize an international conference akin to the recent Berlin Conference on Libya. All the key actors should participate in this conference, including the Iraqi government, representatives of the protest movement, Iran, the U.S. and other relevant regional and international powers and institutions. Through EWI’s engagement with Iraqi and regional actors over the past seven months, we know that to a large extent the EU is considered a neutral player. This neutrality would allow the EU—in partnership with key European countries and the UN—to take the lead in organizing this international conference.

I know this is not an easy task given the internal fragmentation inside Iraq coupled with external intervention. Furthermore, I am mindful of the fact that decision-making within the EU is a slow process, and it takes time for the member states to arrive at a common policy. However, we don't have the luxury of time or chance; we cannot say "let's wait and see." The situation is deteriorating very rapidly. Now is the right time to act and initiate an international mediation process for the Iraqi crisis.