Politics and Governance

Prime Minister Modi’s participation in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Kyrgyzstan on June 13 and 14 was his first multilateral engagement after a massive electoral mandate that boosts his international standing. The SCO presents India with diplomatic challenges different from those of 2017 when it obtained full membership. Changed political equations within the SCO and at the international level have bearings on our diplomacy within the organisation.

China dominates the SCO even more than before because of its economic muscle and growing all-round power. Central Asia is the principal axis of its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which is connecting this region durably to China through infrastructure and oil and gas pipelines. Russia backs the BRI for attracting more Chinese investments in its infrastructure, as well as to balance China’s commanding role and influence decisions on regional projects by seeking alignment of projects between the SCO and the Moscow-initiated Eurasian Economic Union.

Russia’s relations with America have effectively broken down. To counter western pressures it is strengthening strategic understandings with China. Now that America has launched a trade and technology war against China, forging a common front with Russia against America serves China’s interests more than before. For India, more coordination in Russian and Chinese policies reduces our diplomatic space within the SCO and outside.

China had insisted on Pakistan joining the SCO as full member along with India. It has become Beijing’s geopolitical tool all the more with the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Russia-Pakistan ties have improved. A gap has developed between our views and those of Russia on the Taliban’s future role in Afghanistan. While China protects Pakistan on the issue of terrorism, Russia too resists any direct reference to Pakistan-sponsored terrorism against India. Contrary to our efforts to isolate Pakistan diplomatically, the SCO is seen as a platform for encouraging an India-Pakistan dialogue.

Even as Russia and China- the SCO’s mainstays- have been declared as America’s strategic adversaries, India has forged increased strategic understandings with America. Russia has concerns about India’s improved ties with the US being at its expense, especially in the defence area. It has reservations not only about our opposition to the BRI, but also about the Indo-Pacific concept.

But then India too has come under unreasonable pressure from America on defence ties with Russia and energy ties with Iran under its CAATSA legislation, and on bilateral trade ties as well, with America focusing narrowly on our high tariffs (WTO compliant) on some products and its trade deficit (limited) with negative consequences for our developing strategic partnership that will be tested during Secretary of State Pompeo’s imminent visit to India.

India’s stakes in Central Asian states are important in the context of their interest in greater involvement of a rising India in their development, the stability of the region threatened by terrorism and extremist ideologies, the potential fall-out a Taliban take-over in Afghanistan on the secular polity of these states, Pakistan’s efforts to keep us out, and so on.

At the summit, India’s focus on our priority interests remained razor sharp. Modi refused to engage with Imran Khan. That Xi Jinping chose to raise the dialogue issue with him knowing that China underwrites Pakistan’s hostility towards India and protects it on terrorism internationally was surprising. Xi was rightly told that India-Pakistan issues had to be dealt with bilaterally and that for a dialogue Pakistan had to create an atmosphere free of terrorist violence.

Modi raised India’s concerns about terrorism frontally at Bishkek, asking for accountability of countries responsible for supporting and providing financial assistance to terrorists, knowing that his remarks would be understood as targeting Pakistan. He called for an international conference to combat the scourge of terrorism. 

India refused to join other SCO countries in supporting China’s BRI. His formal remarks that respect for sovereignty, regional integrity, good governance, transparency, practicality and reliability should be the basis of connectivity initiatives implicitly faulted the BRI, even as he projected India’s commitment to improved connectivity in mentioning the International North South Transport Corridor, Chabahar Port, Ashgabat Agreement, and the Air Freight Corridor with Afghanistan since 2017.

With the Afghanistan peace process becoming a US-Pakistan-Taliban affair, Modi emphasised that India supported an Afghan-led, Afghan-owned and Afghan-controlled inclusive peace process. He spoke against protectionism and for a WTO-focused rule-based and transparent multilateral trading system, joining wider concerns. On Climate Change he highlighted India’s accomplishments in renewable energy and solar power, including the launch of the International Solar Alliance. His comprehensive template for SCO cooperation encapsulated by the word HEALTH for healthcare, economic, alternate energy, literature and culture, terrorism free society and humanitarian cooperation, was eye-catching.

The political blandness of the Bishkek Declaration and some of its formulations are striking. It advocates strengthening the UN Security Council’s role but omits mentioning its expansion and UN reforms. It notes the candidatures of SCO countries to various UN bodies without offering mutual support. On the Iran nuclear deal, without lending clear support to Iran or criticising America for repudiating it and threatening military action, it calls ‘on all the participants to strictly fulfil their obligations for the comprehensive and effective implementation of the document”. While confirming commitment to its fundamental principles, clearly in response to US pressure it supports the idea of making the WTO more “efficient”.

This article was originally published here on Mail Today. 

On June 4, EWI Board Member Robert Campbell joined Dr. Jeremi Suri to discuss the role of free enterprise in shaping U.S. democracy for the Liberal Arts Instructional Technology Services (LAITs) podcast series This is Democracy.

Click here to listen to the full podcast.

The EastWest Institute’s Middle East and North Africa (MENA) program and CARPO proudly announce the launch of a joint project on “Iraq and Its Neighbors,” which aims to enhance dialogue and regional integration between Iraq and surrounding countries, specifically Turkey, Jordan, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. The project will organize a series of bilateral working groups that aim at fostering exchange on topics and issues of common interest and challenges including trade, border control, climate change, reconstruction, security and counterterrorism.

EastWest Institute Vice President for MENA Kawa Hassan and CARPO CEO Adnan Tabatabai signed a Memorandum of Understanding to kick off the partnership launch in Brussels on Tuesday the June 5, 2019.

“Iraq and Its Neighbors” will run for 18 months and is supported financially by the European Union’s Foreign Policy Instrument.

On April 30, something historic will happen in Japan. Sitting Emperor Akihito will step down and relinquish his title. His elder son, Crown Prince Naruhito, will take the throne. The transition will mark the first imperial succession in modern Japanese history that is not the result of a death. Akihito first made his desire to retire public during a rare video message in the summer of 2016. He noted that his advanced age (he is currently 85 years old) has made it difficult for him to fulfill his responsibilities. The next year, Japan’s Diet passed a bill permitting the emperor to abdicate.

Officials and representatives from over 190 countries have been invited to mark the occasion—and the vast changes that have transformed Japan since 1989, when Akihito became emperor after his father, Emperor Hirohito (known posthumously as Emperor Showa), died. When Akihito took the reins, Japan’s economy was the second-largest in the world behind the United States’. While the economy fell from that peak during his tenure, the Japanese people remained largely wealthy—with a greater quality of life as the years passed by. Life expectancy, for example, remains among the highest in the world.

Click here to read the full article on Foreign Policy. 

On December 3-5, Vladimir Ivanov, Director of the EastWest Institute’s (EWI) Moscow Office, participated in the First Annual International Forum: “Freedom of Journalism in the Context of Human Rights, New Technologies and International Information Security.” Also branded as the Free Media Forum, the event took place in Bratislava, Slovakia, and was co-sponsored by International Affairs, a leading Russian diplomatic journal, the Moscow State University (MSU), including the MSU-affiliated Institute for Information Security Issues, the Union of Journalists of Russia, and Comenius Analytica, a Bratislava-based expert center. 

Featuring an opening address by Alexey Fedotov, Russian Ambassador to the Slovak Republic, and bringing together a diverse mix of media professionals, academics and public opinion makers, the forum highlighted Russia’s ambition to contribute to the international debate on the impact of modern media and information technologies. 
 
Speaking in Bratislava at the session on “Safety of Use and Resilience of Global Information Infrastructure” Ivanov focused on the difficulties of the current global diplomatic process, particularly at the 73rd Session of the United Nations General Assembly, to come to terms on the rules of responsible state behavior in cyberspace. 

“Simultaneous approval by the UN First Committee of two competing draft resolutions on this matter, one led by the Russian Federation, and another by the United States, show that the international community is highly conscious of the urgent need for action to counter threats stemming from modern information and communication technologies,” Ivanov commented. “Unfortunately, actionable agreement in this area is hampered by the lingering antagonism between Russia and the United States.”

At the same time, according to Ivanov, any political uncertainty about cyber-related diplomatic initiatives should not discourage multiple constructive efforts on the part of experts and the global business community to explore viable approaches to developing and implementing norms of responsible conduct in cyberspace. In this context, EWI supports several leading multilateral and multi-stakeholder initiatives as well as the bi-lateral dialogues between the U.S. and Russia, and between the U.S. and China.
 
The forum in Bratislava has the potential to grow into a promising new platform to address aspects of international cyber cooperation, and its role in today’s reflecting an evolving landscape of media standards, including the safety of journalists in military conflicts, relationship between media and governments, as well as challenges to political pluralism and cultural diversity.

Click here for more information about the forum.

Her remarks focused on the challenge posed to American industry from China’s push to increase its global competitiveness. She pointed out that the United States faces future competition from China across a range of sectors, including aerospace equipment, satellite technology and agricultural machinery, presenting a test to both established and emerging companies in the United States.

Dr. Saalman’s coverage of a breadth of China’s economic initiatives, such as the Digital Silk Road, Made in China 2025, China Standards 2035 and New Generation Artificial Intelligence Development Plan, provides a realistic assessment of the challenge posed to U.S. firms. She argues that China’s ambitions are most evident in the area of technology, including the areas of artificial intelligence, telecommunications, quantum computing and smart cities. Through this inward- and outward-facing technological build-up, China is poised to set the standards and the norms throughout the region in terms of everything from energy supply to cyberspace. By examining China’s long-term strategic goals, Dr. Saalman revealed how U.S. tariffs are perceived by some in China as a barrier and to others as a boon. While trade tensions will have a disparate impact on the tech sector, Dr. Saalman stated that, “I have come across a small but seemingly growing group of young professionals in China who argue that while painful in the short-term, U.S. tariffs and sanctions are likely to be healthy for the Chinese economy in the longer term,” adding, “They are compelling faster movement on domestic innovation and the Made in China 2025 strategy,” while dislodging “vested interests and oligarchical tendencies of the upper echelon in China.”

Dr. Saalman’s remarks on a range of issues pertaining to China’s rise are crucial for anyone interested in attaining a deeper understanding of the future of U.S.-China strategic and technical relations.

For more on Dr. Saalman’s Kiwanis address, visit the article from Global Atlanta.

Photo: Global Atlanta

As India and Pakistan agreed to open an important cross-border connection between Sikh religous sights, EWI's Asia-Pacific fellow Rizwana Abbasi warns that "meaningful and constructive dialogue for resolution of contentious issues between India and Pakistan remains a distant dream."

Click here to read the full article on South Asian Voices.

After almost 22 years of political struggle, Imran Khan and his party, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), have finally emerged victorious in what appears to be, despite allegations, one of the most civil electoral exercises the country has witnessed in the last few decades. Pakistan’s general elections mark the second successful democratic transition of the government, which in and of itself represents a tremendous victory and promising step for the future.

However, the man soon to be appointed for the top job in governing one of the most geostrategically important, yet turbulent, countries in the world has a huge responsibility riding on his shoulders. Khan’s primary voter base, the Pakistani youth, are earnestly looking to him as a pioneer of a new political era,  at a critical juncture when Pakistan is battling a serious debt crisis and facing a policy predicament in light of China’s growing economic foothold in the country. Given his claims to be a transformative leader, Khan’s political momentum and commitment toward the welfare of the youth will profoundly determine the country’s position in face of intransigent socioeconomic challenges.

Read the full article here in The Diplomat.

Image: "Konferenz: Pakistan und der Westen - Imr" (CC BY-SA 2.0) by boellstiftung