Politics and Governance

Vladimir Putin has won re-election as president of Russia, by a wide margin. According to news reports, he received over 70 percent of the votes cast, with an estimated 60 percent of voters taking part. Despite allegations of irregularities and criticisms that authorities kept legitimate opposition to the incumbent president off the ballot, Putin has achieved what he set out to achieve: a clear mandate for the next six years.

But what is that mandate? And what are we to expect from Russia in the global arena?

Context is important. Putin's last election, in 2012, came on the heels of significant public dissatisfaction (which led to mass protests the Russian president claims were orchestrated by foreign interests). This year's election was in part an attempt to "put to rest ghosts of the past" by preventing displays of public discontent and demonstrating to audiences — domestic and foreign — a sense of order, continuity and strength. The strategy proved successful. 

Putin's campaign also pointed to other signs of stability: In spite of low oil prices, most economic indicators in Russia, including wages, unemployment and gross domestic product growth, are stable. None of the metrics is necessarily exemplary, and Russia's poverty rate is still high, but the Kremlin is portraying its economic management as controlled and effective. Its efforts had a powerful psychological effect on the majority of the electorate. As Russians told me on my most recent visit, it could be a lot worse.

Read the full commentary here.

Photo: "Russia_President_Putin_Korea_Visiting_01" (CC BY-SA 2.0) by KOREA.NET - Official page of the Republic of Korea

EWI Global Vice President Bruce McConnell joined Johann Wadephul PhD, Deputy Chairman of Germany's CDU/CSU Bundestag Caucus in a discussion on the future of United States-Europe cooperation. The event, in February 2018, was organized by the Young Transatlantic Initiative and moderated by its president, Lukas Posch.

Watch:

Photo: "European Panorama (NASA, International S" (CC BY-NC 2.0) by NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center

In the interview, aired on March 19, Hassan said President Putin perhaps will not try to play new political cards in that region.

He said Putin will keep using the threat of radical Islamist groups and the efforts to destroy them as ways to strengthen Russia's relations with regimes in the Middle East.

"Russia is trying to compete with the U.S. in Iraq through investment in oil fields [in the Kurdish region]. In the coming years, the [geopolitical] equation in the Middle East might not change against the interests of Russia particularly in Syria. The growing Russian influence there right now is less the result of Russian leverage and more due to the lack of clear U.S. strategy and vision, as well as to the fact that the EU is currently consumed with internal problems. But if Russia poses a threat to vital Western interests in Syria, that may lead to an escalation [of the rivalry]."  

Listen to the interview (in Arabic).

Photo: "G20 Leaders’ Summit" (CC BY-NC-ND 2.0) by Herman Van Rompuy

In the interview, Hassan highlighted the reasons that led to the fragmentation of the opposition.

"First of all, there is a historical factor, namely the authoritarian nature of the Syrian regime. The Assad regime, father and son, killed politics and civil society which made it extremely difficult for a strong opposition to emerge. Second, the intervention by regional and international powers in the conflict who have no interest in the emergence of a democratic Syria. Third, there is an objective factor that has to do with the nature of the opposition.

The democratic national opposition leaders were either marginalized, killed or fled the country. As a result, the more militaristic, radical Islamic fundamentalist groups prevailed.

The scorched earth policy by the regime partly led to the militarization of the uprising. But the absence of real opposition leaders who are capable of reading and understanding the complex geopolitics of the uprising has led to the empowerment and the prevailing sectarian and fundamentalist armed groups like ISIS and Al-Qaeda. As a result, it is almost impossible to go back to the peaceful phase of the uprising. 

Assad is winning battles but he is not winning the peace. Assad has succeeded in destroying Syria. But there are no winners in this conflict, only losers. And the biggest loser is the Syrian people." 

Access the interview here (in Arabic).

Photo: "Syria 2007 190 Palmyra تدمر" (CC BY-SA 2.0) by David Holt London

Dr. William J. Parker III, chief operating officer of the EastWest Institute, appeared on the David Webb Show on March 14 to discuss the nomination of Michael Pompeo by President Donald Trump as U.S. secretary of state to replace Rex Tillerson.

“[Mike Pompeo] has served as a congressman, served as the director of the Central Intelligence Agency, West Point grad, Harvard Law School grad. He has the bona fides and he has the experience,” said Parker.

Parker underscored the importance of aligned strategic communications in foreign policy between the U.S. president and his Cabinet members, particularly the secretary of state. He  referred specifically to disagreements between Trump and Tillerson on issues such as the Paris climate treaty and the Iran nuclear deal.

“When the boss makes the decision, then you proceed forward. If you can’t live with that decision, then you step down,” Parker said on the show, aired on Patriot Radio.

Listen in full here.

Photo: "Mike Pompeo" (CC BY-SA 2.0) by Gage Skidmore

Lebanon, for once, looks relatively secure. To the south, a brewing corruption scandal threatens to upend Israel’s political establishment; to the north, the abattoir of Syria’s hijacked revolution grinds on. Despite a tense few weeks last November—when Prime Minister Saad Hariri temporarily resigned under duress—and an influx of refugees from neighboring Syria, Lebanon has largely avoided the destabilizing currents wracking the rest of the region. Lebanon’s relative security might tempt observers to assume the peaceful status quo will prevail at the ballot box on May 8.

But the relationship between national security and domestic politics in Lebanon is not so straightforward. The elections, less predictable than usual thanks to the debut of new voting laws, will change the relationship between the Lebanese and their political representatives. A new electoral dynamic could very well change the political calculus between Saudi Arabia and Iran which has so far sheltered Lebanon from regional storms. In the long run, though, the change could make Lebanon far more secure.

Read the full article on Lawfare Blog.

Photo: "Baalbek, Lebanon" (CC BY-NC-ND 2.0) by Paul Saad

Ambassador Cameron Munter spoke with Benjamin Purper of KVCR — a locally-owned and operated public television and radio station in the Inland Empire and Southern California — to talk about 21st century diplomacy, current U.S. foreign policies and the work of the EastWest Institute.

“We are in the diplomacy world, not the foreign policy world, at the EastWest institute. We're not telling people how to solve a particular problem. We're pulling them together and trying to figure out how they can do it themselves,” he was quoted as saying.

KVCR is an affiliate of the National Punblic Radio (NPR).

Listen to the interview here.

Photo: "White House" (CC BY-SA 2.0) by ThatMattWade

Dr. Lora Saalman, vice president of EWI’s Asia-Pacific program, joined experts from over 30 countries in South Asia and Horn of Africa to moderate a workshop on the security implications of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in Yangon, Myanmar.

The February 22-23 regional workshop was organized by Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung (FES) and the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), and co-hosted by the Myanmar Institute of Strategic and International Studies (MISIS).

About the workshop series, Dr. Saalman noted, "The BRI is one of the most amorphous and yet, potentially, transformative concepts to emerge from China. It offers the tangibility that many previous Chinese initiatives have lacked, repackaging old and new infrastructure projects. And yet, the nascent BRI is marked by ambiguity in terms of its overall structure and longer-term aims.”

“Faced with this contradiction, regional stakeholders have begun to express concerns over unsustainable projects, debt-for-equity swaps, community backlash, ecological strains and exacerbated trafficking and ethnic issues. This series offers a platform for these countries to engage and to formulate their own takeaways in terms of regional cooperation and risk management," she added.

The Yangon workshop was part of a series organized by SIPRI and FES in China, Central Asia, Europe, Southeast Asia, South Asia and the Horn of Africa starting in 2016, to fill the gap in the under-researched security implications of the BRI. The deliberations will continue at a Shanghai workshop in March, with specific focus on the EU-China relations. For more information about the project, go here.

Photos from the event are by Minzayar Oo/FES

Banner photo: "Shwedagon Pagoda" (CC BY-ND 2.0) by tomyam93

The World Economic Forum (WEF)'s Annual Meeting in Davos, Switzerland, is a major creative force for engaging top leaders from across the world to undertake joint action relating to events for shaping the global, regional and industry agendas. Having attained a reputation for great integrity, the WEF is not tied to any political, partisan or national interests; it is "committed to improving the State of the World."

Over 3,000 leaders from business (representing hundreds of WEF member corporate companies), government and international organizations, civil society and religious organizations academia, media and the arts converged in Davos from January 23-27. This year's theme was "Creating a Shared Future in a Fractured World," one of the aims being, "The fractures that have emerged politically, economically and socially must not foster intolerance, indecision and inaction. The 48th World Economic Forum Annual Meeting therefore aims to rededicate leaders from all walks of life to developing a shared narrative to improve the state of the world."

Top global leaders, in addition to the U.S. President included rime Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi, Indian PM Narendra Modi, Italian PM Paolo Gentiloni, French President Emmanuel Macron, British PM Theresa May, Canadian PM Justin Trudeau, Argentina President Mauricio Macri, Brazil's President Michel Temer, PM Norway Erna Solberg, PM of Sweden Stefan Löfven, and Lebanon's Council of Ministers President Saad Al-Hariri. Among the Royals were King Abdullah-II and Queen Rania of Jordan, Queen Maxima of the Netherlands and Prince Turki al-Faisal of Saudi Arabia. The global business sector was represented by, among others, Facebook's Sheryl Sandburg, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella, Google CEO Sundar Pichai, Microsoft's Bill Gates, Alibaba Chairman Jack Ma and IBM CEO Ginni Rometty were among the dozens of others.

PM Abbasi was accompanied by Foreign Minister Khawaja Asif, Minister Saira Afzal Tarar, Minister of State Marriyum Aurangzeb and Minister of State Anusha Rahman. Unlike last year when the then PM Nawaz Sharif did not address any of the 400 or more sessions, Shahid Khaqan Abbasi was among the five panelists who spoke at the "Belt and Road Impact" session on January 24. Pakistan is partnering China's high profile initiative through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC); this focuses on improving connectivity and cooperation among Asian countries, Africa, Europe and China. PM Abbasi also interacted with heads of States and governments in a special session of the Informal Group of WEF leaders (IGWEL). Meeting with many government and business leaders in bi-lateral sessions his focus was on encouraging the private sector to invest in Pakistan.

PM Shahid Khaqan Abbasi was the Chief Guest at the traditional 'Pakistan Breakfast' hosted jointly by Pathfinder Group and Martin Dow Group. The PM was quite eloquent about the present economic and security situation, the geo-political changes taking place in adjacent regions, its effect on the region and Pakistan and what a game-changer and an economic force-multiplier CPEC is to Pakistan. What was very noticeable was his confidence and comfort, particularly in the Q&A Session. It was a great honour for Pakistan that the Chinese guests requested that their Ambassador in Geneva say a few words. The high point of the Pakistan Breakfast was the presence of Bilawal Bhutto Zardari. 24 years earlier, I was privileged to accompany his mother as her aide in Davos inside the Congress Center. I have never ever seen charisma like hers ever in Davos. PM Abbasi graciously acknowledged his presence; what a great day for democracy!

This year the Pathfinder Group and Martin Dow Group took a private sector initiative establishing a small but representative Pakistan Pavilion in the Greenhouse of the Hotel Panorama. The first in WEF history, the intent of the Pavilion was to showcase Pakistan's image in a soft and positive light. This experimental initiative was a walk-in affair where Pakistani entrepreneurs/officials in IT media, Financial Services (including microfinance and financial inclusion), philanthropy, etc were available to interact with international investors, experts and officials. On both the days, speakers from Pakistan spoke about Pakistan's economy, gender empowerment, law and order situation, etc. At the invitation of Ikram Sehgal and Jawed Akhai, Dr. Ishrat Husain journeyed to Davos to speak about the challenge and the opportunities in Pakistan. At a dinner at the Schatzalp on Tuesday among those who spoke were Shabbar Zaidi of Ferguson, Dr. Daniel Ritz of PTCL, Jerry Torres of AES Torres (USA), James Rubin former U.S. Press Secretary to the President, Dr. Marc Siegel of California (USA), Dr. Huma Baqai, Sidra Iqbal, Aamer Mahmood of CPNE, Ambassador Zamir Akram, SPD, Jawed Akhai and Zarrar. Among those who braved the cold were Saifuddin Zoomkawala, Editor Business Recorder Wamiq A. Zuberi and Fawad Rana.

Pakistan's private sector was represented by Javed Akhai, CEO Martin Dow Chemicals, Hussain Dawood, Group Chairman Engro Corporation Ltd, Saad Hamid, CEO Demo Enterprises, Dr. Sania Nishtar, Founder and President Heartlife, my son Zarrar Sehgal Deputy Chairman Pathfinder Group and Ali Siddiqui, Vice Chairman JS Bank. Special Assistant to the PM, the person responsible for the PM's visit to Davos. Davos presents a huge potential for Pakistan, it is imperative that Pakistani political and business leaders rethink the importance of participating in the WEF Annual Meetings. The global village has become increasingly inter-connected and fast-paced with technological breakthrough, demographic shifts and political transformations having far-reaching societal and economic consequences. With the world becoming so fluid and changeable, leaders will have to share real-time insights and innovations on how best to navigate the future and inter-act positively on a plethora of issues. Mostly bi-lateral meetings do benefit Pakistan but our negative image can only be erased by casting a longer "soft" shadow over the Davos world stage.

The overwhelming consensus among the world's rich, powerful and/or knowledgeable is that the WEF Annual Meeting at Davos truly remains the most important economic and socio-political event in the world calendar. The WEF's mission to "improve the state of the world" means engaging top global leaders to collaborate in shaping the global, regional and industry agendas. Davos gets your narrative not only heard but understood, while going there is important, to make it happen you have to be heard in public sessions. A handful of Pakistani businessmen at Davos can never shoulder the burden of projecting Pakistan. Davos is a unique opportunity to showcase Pakistan. It is, therefore, imperative that our major business leaders use the Davos platform to be counted as the outstanding entrepreneurs they are.

Photo: "48th World Economic Forum 2018" (CC BY-ND 2.0) by GovernmentZA