Politics and Governance

Munter argued that, in Syria, Russia was trying to be taken seriously as a global power.

"I think it's an overarching goal of the Russians to make sure that they're seen as taken seriously throughout the region, that they're present throughout the region, and they're recognized as being there throughout the region. So they're going to, I think, make it clear to the public even at the risk of maybe ticking off the Iranians that they have influence throughout the region, "said Munter in an interview with VOA's International Edition on August 23. 

"Whether or not that has a strategic goal—that is whether they're better at fighting the rebels, whether that makes more of a difference—seems to me to be less important than the message that Russia's there, Russia's there to stay and Russia has a wide reach."

Russia last week revealed that a number of their fighter bombers had taken off from Hamadan, south-west of Tehran, to carry out strikes in Syria. It was the first time a foreign state had used Iranian territory to attack a third country since at least the second world war.

Munter also believed the armed conflict, which is in its fifth year and has killed hundreds of thousands, could be resolved.

"Any situation like this can be resolved but it's a question of people making choices or being compelled to make choices. It's a question of with whom do people ally themselves ... People make choices because they see things change or they feel their own ability to affect things changes. And when the right constellation of change takes place, this war can be solved," said Munter.

To listen to the full interview, click here. Munter's segment starts at the 11:45 mark.

For this year’s elections, McConnell has recommended that the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) issue a security alert warning election officials of risks to their systems, advising them of the need to have an audit trail and paper backups, and calling on companies supplying voting machines and other equipment to go through independent audits with published results.

McConnell was commenting on the possibility of designating elections as national critical infrastructure after recent hacking attacks on political groups, a move that would open up federal assistance to election officers around the country.

The debate comes after hackers infiltrated the computer networks of the Democratic National Committee and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee in what cybersecurity experts call a broad operation by Russian operatives to infiltrate U.S. political organizations.

The DHS has the authority to designate what qualifies as critical infrastructure under Presidential Policy Directive 21 and Executive Order 13636, said McConnell, a former DHS deputy undersecretary for cybersecurity.

In reality, though, McConnell said Homeland Security Secretary Jeh Johnson is vetting the proposal through the interagency process and floating it publicly to ensure it has support before making a final decision.

"It’s not that they would take unilateral action but legally they have the authority to do this," he added. 

Click here to read the full article on Bloomberg Politics. 

McConnell has also appeared on several other news outlets discussing the topic. 

Click here to read his comments in a Politico story dated Aug. 28 titled  "Elections security: Federal help or power grab?"

Click here to listen to his interview with NPR.

By Claudia Wessling, Media Relations Officer/Science Editor, MERICS

MERICS, a Berlin-based institute for contemporary and practical research on China, presented their latest study on how the Chinese media view the European crises. EWI’s Vice President for Regional Security, Ambassador Martin Fleischer, gave welcoming remarks to the audience and introduced the EastWest Institute as one of the oldest NGOs working in the areas of peace and security, with a unique U.S.-China program focusing on military-to-military as well as party-to-party dialogue (see here for more information).

Looking at a wide range of different Chinese media, the MERICS study explores how the heated debate around the Brexit, Europe’s sovereign debt crisis, the refugee crisis and the rise of right-wing populism are seen by Chinese media. The research revealed that official Chinese media use events in Europe to discredit Western concepts of democracy while more market-oriented outlets offered a more differentiated assessment.

In his keynote speech following Ambassador Fleischer’s introductory remarks, Jo Leinen, Head of the European Parliament’s Delegation for Relations with the People’s Republic of China, pointed out that "the story of the EU and China is one of curiosity and fear." With China being the 2nd biggest trade partner of the EU, there was a huge need "to learn more about that country," Mr. Leinen stressed. "Relations have reached a critical point," he added with regard to the increasingly heated discussions among member states on whether or not China should be given the status of a market economy and whether or not the surge of Chinese investments in Europe is a blessing or a curse.

"How China views the EU should matter to us," said Dr. Kristin Shi-Kupfer, Director of the Research Area Politics, Society, and Media at MERICS. Her comment echoed Mr. Leinen’s introductory remarks.

For their survey, the co-authors Dr. Jasmin Gong, Mr. Bertram Lang and Dr. Shi-Kupfer used software tools to search for a set of keywords relating to EU crisis events in around 75,000 articles of party-state and market-oriented media as well as in social media forums, and they subjected 300 commentaries and op-eds to further in-depth scrutiny. The result was a mixed picture, as Dr. Gong pointed out: "The Greek debt crisis and the Brexit referendum are discussed quite neutrally in Chinese media, and many reports reflect confidence in the EU’s stability. But after the Brexit vote actually happened, this confidence was disrupted."

Commentators of the official media question not the EU, but the “Western system”

The analysis, published within the framework of the MERICS China Monitor series, highlights a number of trends. Roughly one-third of all analyzed opinion articles (34%) portrayed the above-mentioned events as challenges to EU unity. Many Chinese commentators viewed the influx of refugees and the terrorist threat as crises the EU will eventually be unable to manage (38% and 34%, respectively). "The refugee crisis is the result of a self-righteous idea of democracy" or "China could be the ‘man of wisdom' for the establishment of a new world order” were some of the quotes that raised eyebrows among the representatives from EU institutions and think-tanks in the audience.

The study’s most striking finding was the difference between party-state media and more market-oriented outlets when it came to assessing events in Europe. Commercial media like Caixin or blogs like Sohu tried to give more differentiated accounts and took a closer look at internal European debates. Party-state media, on the other hand, clearly used coverage on crisis phenomena to discredit "the West" and its values. People's Daily or Xinhua described the EU and Europe as being "in a state of decay, like the West as a whole," as Mr. Lang pointed out. He added that some official commentators even went one step further and took "the moral high ground to promote Chinese concepts of authoritarian rule as an alternative to Western ones."

How the EU’s image is shattered by the European crises

The researchers stressed the need for a deeper analysis: "China’s domestic media discourse is a better early indicator of potential changes in attitudes towards Europe than diplomatic statements," Bertram Lang said. Hence, the following question arises: Is the EU's image in China already in shambles? Maybe not yet: After all, two thirds of the coverage analyzed by MERICS still reveal a rather neutral take on the EU's ability to confront its challenges. But should Chinese media increasingly question the EU as a haven of political stability, Europe's standing vis-à-vis China as an ever-more powerful player might be compromised.

"The development has to worry us, there might be danger for democratic systems," MEP Jo Leinen said in his closing remarks. In contrast, Dr. Shi-Kupfer from MERICS offered some reassuring advice for policymakers in EU member states. Dr. Gong recommended targeting China's market-oriented media and popular bloggers to convey a more positive, realistic image of the situation, stating “Mind you, some Chinese bloggers have 40 million and more followers. That makes for quite a bit of influence!"

To access the complete MERICS study, please follow this link.

To see the website of MERICS, please follow this link.

After 15 years of international cooperation following the fall of the Taliban in 2001, Afghanistan has progressed dramatically although from an undoubtedly low starting point. Literacy rates and school attendance for both boys and girls have risen. In major cities electricity is now expected where it was non-existent 15 years ago. Large-scale projects, such as the Salma Dam, are breaking ground and others, such as the Kajaki Dam, are advancing toward utilization. Roads between all major cities that were a series of loosely connected potholes in 2001 are now functional. However, considering the massive expenditure and effort to reach this point, the results are not satisfactory. The opportunities presented to the Afghan people by overwhelming international support will slip away without persistent and patient attention.

The Afghan Government Working to Earn Respect

International commitment is waning as a result of the Afghan government’s stalled progress. The unity government remains intact but, despite an expansive vision from President Ashraf Ghani, has not lived up to expectations.  Corruption at the ministerial down to the district level is rampant as many officials are more concerned with personal rather than common interests. Cooperation between the President and the CEO, Abdullah Abdullah, exists in public, but there is growing separation and mistrust in private. After a delay of over a year, parliamentary elections are scheduled for October 15 October 2016, but planning and preparation are lagging. Government institutions suffer from a lack of funding and ineffective human capacity at all levels.

Despite all this, there are signs of hope. President Ghani’s personal energy and vision for a positive future include specific actions to address the major concerns. His outreach to improve relations with Pakistan in March 2015 failed to deliver an expected reciprocal response, which cost him significant political capital and good will with many within Afghanistan’s political environment.  

President Ghani’s dialogues with Pakistani military and ministerial leaders in March 2015 acknowledged the special relationship between the two countries and the economic and security gains that could potentially be gained by effective cooperation. Afghan-Pakistan history is fraught with mistrust, subterfuge and competition; however, the two countries’ collaboration is pivotal to the eventual defeat of the Taliban and promotion of regional economic cooperation and growth. After Ghani’s visit to Pakistan in March 2015, the Pakistani government committed to demonstrating tangible results toward improved relations. After 15 months, this commitment has fallen flat, and the relationship has continued to sour. President Ghani has subsequently shifted his focus. He is looking to Iran in the west, China in the east and the Central Asian republics to assist in developing Afghanistan’s economic potential. This extension will help but will not allow Afghanistan to maximize its economic potential nor create the environment for cooperation against the Taliban and other insurgents. The governments of Pakistan and Afghanistan must continue to work toward a more cooperative relationship militarily and economically. A close alliance does not seem achievable, but both countries need to work together to combat insurgent forces that pose an existential threat to them. There is no silver bullet that will resolve the tensions; therefore, both sides must look to small actions that can begin to build a more trusting relationship. Cooperation on visa requirements for local Pashtuns affected by the Durand Line is one area that could represent a small step forward.

A Stagnant Economy

The significant decrease in foreign investment and aide has hindered economic growth and infrastructure projects. This decrease was not unexpected. The government of Afghanistan, in close cooperation with the Resolute Support and Combined Security Transition Command-Afghanistan (CSTC-A), has instituted significant reform of its procurement and contracting system. Touted by the President and confirmed by CSTC-A, the procurement initiative began in early 2015 (and still ongoing) and has significantly improved transparency, and through competition, reduced considerably the costs of the hundreds of contracts in support of the government, including its army and police.  The reform has ensured compliance with Afghan law, fair and open bidding, and improved integrity of contract selection. A modified National Procurement Authority and National Procurement Commission lead the directed change. Approved this year, a new National Procurement Law has introduced multi-year and framework contracts allowing for consolidation and centralization.  All of these procurement changes have set the conditions for economy of scale in pricing, fair competition and flexibility to meet the rapidly changing needs of security operations, and a drastic reduction in total contracts to be managed. The Afghan government has introduced effective corruption-resistance measures, along with reform in procurement and contracting. These initiatives will go a long way toward improving sustainability and affordability in running the government, providing much needed services to the Afghan people and increasing the government's contribution toward the country's security and defense. The scrutiny of contractual agreements has also focused on reducing corruption and improving transparency. Combined, these initiatives will go a long way toward the development of a sustainable infrastructure.

The economy has struggled with the loss of coalition demand for goods and services. There are several demonstrative aspects hindering economic growth and regional cooperation:

• The friction with Pakistan over the long-term status of the Durand Line has marginalized the gains achieved in durable multi-entry visas, border crossing point procedures and trade and transit cooperation.
• Afghanistan has not been able to raise the capital and international investment needed to exploit the one trillion USD worth of mineral potential in Afghanistan.  
• The stability of Afghanistan’s financial system and rule of law has not earned the trust of international investors, which inhibits the vast potential for regional and international direct investment in Afghanistan. 
• The tax code and rules associated with optimal business practices are at best written but not promulgated, or at worst yet to be codified.
• The migration of educated and capable Afghans and their capital is having a negative impact on the ability of the government and private sector to build economic capacity.  
• The narcotics driven illicit economy continues to grow and fund insurgent activities.

Despite these many challenges, the economy grew by 1.3 percent in 2014 and 1.5 percent in 2015; trade between Afghanistan and Pakistan reaches 20,000 licit and illicit vehicles crossing the border a day; and major regional and global agreements are moving forward.

Afghanistan’s acceptance into global and regional trade associations has been slow, but continuous movement on regional infrastructure agreements bodes well for the long term. Afghanistan was formally accepted into the World Trade Organization on 17 December 2015. Afghanistan has been an active member of the South Asia Association of Regional Cooperation (SARC) since April 2007. The Central Asia–South Asia power project, CASA 1000, a center-piece for regional cooperation, has been approved for engineering and continues to move slowly through funding agreements. China’s 44 billion USD One Belt One Road agreement with Pakistan is seen as an opportunity for Pakistan and Afghanistan to cooperate. The Chinese will build the road and connect it to both Karachi and the new Gwadar Port. China’s infrastructure investment as well as India’s agreement with Iran to build the Chabahar Port will yield an opportunity to connect east and west routes to north and south routes. The approximately 100 miles between the two ports offer the opportunity to link Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iran to major trade routes. Although in the near term progress is slow and tangible results are often hard to see, mid-term and long-term integration efforts continue to move forward.

Securing the People

The security environment continues to deteriorate with a resilient Taliban and the infiltration of other insurgent organizations. The killing of Taliban leader, Mullah Akhtar Mohammad Mansour, created a vacuum in the insurgent leadership, which has contributed to a delayed summer fighting season. Hezb-i-Islami, led by Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, appears ready to formally reconcile with the Afghan government. This would be a big win for the Ghani government and would enable it to focus on a more narrow insurgent threat base. The Taliban has expanded its influence in many provinces in the south and east as well as the region surrounding Kunduz in the north. In provinces such as Helmond and Uruzgan the insurgents have tested the Afghan National Security Forces, limiting government influence and communications, especially in the rural and remote regions.  For its part, the Afghan Army took the offensive in Kunduz where it was able to prevent a repeat of last year’s capture of the provincial capital. The army has been able to recruit over 50,000 new soldiers over the last year, replacing large losses due to enemy contact, desertion and normal attrition, which is a positive view on a difficult first year without substantial coalition military support.

The Resolute Support mission to "enhance the Enduring Partnership with Afghanistan" lends credibility to the long-term security prospects. While the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF) continue to improve, they have many obstacles to overcome. They must develop strong literate junior leaders who can act independently in the rural areas of the country. Their logistics systems and accountability suffer from an over reliance on coalition support (enabled by the coalition in many cases). The inertia of a fire base mentality is beginning to give way to a more proactive posture; however, the insurgents still exploit gaps in security created by ANDSF units that stay in their secure redoubts.  

Local leaders and citizens are not blind to the resilient Taliban, persistent corruption, and economic slowdown. In general, they want a better life for their families and path to a secure lifestyle. They are willing to support whichever route will get them to this goal. Consequently, there is a general feeling that in the threatened areas people are hedging their bets. They do not support the Taliban inherently but will tolerate abuses of authority if the Taliban represents a more direct line to a secure and predictable environment. This is offset by a general deterioration in the people’s confidence that the government will prevail in providing a reasonable environment. The Afghan government has the opportunity to prove that it can provide a more stable situation and positive future; they just have to make it happen.

In addition, the inconsistent nature of the U.S. commitment to Afghanistan makes it difficult for citizens to trust the long-term viability of their own government. The government needs consistent guarantees of international commitment in order to improve and earn the support of its people.

Avoiding the Back Slide

Progress in Afghanistan is glacial. It is a unique and challenging environment where realizing positive change is fundamentally arduous. The Afghan government has failed to capitalize on the tremendous international good will and support over the last 15 years. Internally, the levels of corruption, ineffective government institutions, and inability to provide a secure environment have compromised citizen trust which jeopardizes long-term development. Externally, the coalition has squandered opportunities by not clearly understanding the unique challenges at the local level, not properly administering development funding, killing civilians through accidental (and tragically sometimes purposeful) misuse of force, and failing to adequately assist the government of Afghanistan in creating a more stable environment—despite a continued commitment of thousands of lives and billions of dollars to the challenge that is Afghan security, stability and eventual growth.  

In retrospect, the initial premise after September 11, 2001 was accurate—prevent a terrorist safe haven and help build a stable Afghanistan. Considering where Afghanistan was in 2001 with regard to social well-being, infrastructure, education, security and just about every other indicator, the country has moved the needle. The way forward remains difficult, But the coalition’s continued unambiguous support is vital for ultimate Afghan stability, while the Afghan government must redouble its efforts to fix the problems it knows all too well. Letting the achieved progress slip away would only serve to squander the sacrifices made as a result of the good intentions of an unprecedented coalition.

Colonel (ret.) James Creighton commanded a coalition brigade in Uruzgan from 2010 – 2011 and was the lead author in writing the operations plan for the surge in 2009. He is a distinguished fellow at the EastWest Institute and has interviewed dozens of officials at the highest levels in Afghanistan.

Hassan recently spoke of the state of Kurdistan for an article titled "Out of Iraq’s ashes, Kurdistan grows."

Some of his comments are:

• "At the moment, Baghdad is weak and cannot impose its will. But whether they would accept Kurdistan having Kirkuk as a province—I really doubt it.
• He says that if the KRG attempts to unilaterally secede with Kirkuk, “there will definitely be war.”
• But an independent Kurdistan would be entering into economic relations with its neighbours from a position of relative weakness, says Hassan. “If tomorrow an independent Kurdistan will be declared, it will be independent of Baghdad but dependent on Ankara.” 

To read the complete article, go here.

Hassan has spoken at length about the future of Kurdistan. More of his insight on the topic is available here, here, and here.

“The United Nations is in need of robust restructuring and revitalization,” declared Vuk Jeremić at a SMART Talk event at EastWest Institute’s (EWI) New York Center on June 22.

Jeremić, former president of the UN General Assembly and Serbian Minister of Foreign Affairs, was joined by EWI CEO and President Cameron Munter in a discussion on a range of timely world affairs issues. The event was well attended including the participation of ambassadors, diplomats and members of civil society.

Jeremić candidly discussed his platform for secretary-general and the future of the UN, as well as multilateral diplomacy and conflict resolution around the globe.

Jeremić described this year’s UN secretary-general election, which will take place next month, as especially important given today’s “transformational times.” But, the UN, Jeremić said, had not necessarily kept up with the fast-moving pace of current events.

To resolve this issue, Jeremić released the first printed platform in the history of the UN secretary-general election.

Change and pragmatism were both key themes in Jeremić’s suggestions.

Jeremić proposed several internal transparency measures including protection of whistleblowers, public disclosure of under-secretary-generals’ financial records and establishment of an independent financial oversight office.

Understanding sustainable development and the implications of climate change, Jeremić said, was  crucial for the next secretary-general who would have to ensure a full and proper implementation of the Paris Climate Agreement. The agreement was signed on April 22, 2016.

Jeremić also acknowledged the impact of the changing world order on the UN’s role in conflict resolution. The U.S.-China relationship, he stated, is perhaps the most important one of this century. Thus, he urged geopolitical stakeholders in the South China Sea conflict to use a delicate hand toward seeking and maintaining a resolution. He also cited India’s fast-growing economy, population and international presence as proof that India is vital to the future of the UN.

Citing the UN’s failure to handily resolve the Syrian refugee crisis, Jeremić proposed five-year peace-stabilizing—as opposed to simply peacekeeping—missions in the Middle East. He also proposed more robust anti-terrorism measures.

As the discussion drew to a close, Jeremic also took on the question of gender parity within the UN. He described this secretary-general election as a “watershed moment” for UN women. If elected, would commit to full gender parity within the world body by making sure there were 44 female under-secretary-generals and 44 male under-secretary-generals.

Will Jeremić be the next UN secretary-general? Only time will tell.

“They [the members of the General Assembly] know what I stand for,” he said. “They have the voting rights.”

Click here to read an event write up on TANJUG (in Serbian). 

Afghanistan’s image on the global stage is currently dominated by significant security and governance challenges, the faltering peace process and a lack of substantial economic development. These factors also make Afghanistan the second-largest country of origin in the current refugee crisis facing Europe. In light of this negative international perception of Afghanistan, a number of significant developments towards reconnecting the country to the economy of the region are largely overlooked. The EastWest Institute’s (EWI) high-level conference “Afghanistan Reconnected: Cross-Border Cooperation at a Critical Juncture,” held on June 3-5, 2016 in Istanbul, analyzed the ongoing progress in regional energy projects; the development of alternative shipping ports in Iran and Pakistan in cooperation with India and China, achievements and setbacks in terms of cross-border transit, and the growing role of joint chambers of commerce. The discussions among practitioners from the region produced recommendations on how governments, the private sector, and the international community should capitalize on opportunities to contribute to the stability and prosperity of Afghanistan and its neighbors.
 
The EastWest Institute—with the support of the German Federal Foreign Office and in partnership with The Union of Chambers and Commodity Exchanges of Turkey (TOBB)—held the conference “Afghanistan Reconnected: Cross-Border Cooperation at a Critical Juncture” on June 3-5, 2016. Time and location of the meeting were chosen to make the conference a side event to the Istanbul convention of the intergovernmental “International Contact Group for Afghanistan” and to benefit from the interaction between interested government representatives and participants. Chaired by EWI’s Vice President for Regional Security Ambassador Martin Fleischer, the conference set the stage for experienced political and business leaders from Afghanistan, China, India, Iran, Pakistan, Tajikistan and Turkey to discuss necessary reforms to unlock Afghanistan’s, and the region’s, economic potential. The event sent an encouraging signal that business interaction can help bridge animosities between countries, promoting shared interests and a shared economic vision for the region. The main topics discussed included:

Trade and Transit
Afghanistan presents a number of opportunities for regional cooperation and connectivity. Resource-rich and strategically-located, the country could potentially provide both material and transit routes to enhance and facilitate regional and international trade. However, still-complicated relations between countries in the region impede what would otherwise be a natural use of Afghanistan’s resources and position. Nonetheless, progress has been made on a number of issues in the past three years, namely cross-border trade and transit. Between Pakistan and Afghanistan, problems with visa facilitation, goods declarations, insurance, and bank guarantees have been lessened through actions by national and trans-national chambers of commerce. For example, goods declarations are now transmitted electronically, and insurance claims generally yield much more compensation than they did prior to the intervention of the Pakistan Afghanistan Joint Chamber of Commerce and Industry (PAJCCI). Lengthy delays at ports have been reduced across the board, and partial shipments of Afghan imports are now allowed to cross the border. However, the current border crossing dispute and heightened tension between Afghanistan and Pakistan illustrate the fragility of this progress and demonstrate the necessity of serious efforts to ensure positive neighborly relations.

Numerous large Indian corporations have set up franchises in Afghanistan, though problems remain regarding the gathering and accessing of market information. To further stimulate foreign business investment, Afghanistan needs to make consistent and reliable information and documentation available to its trading partners and investors regarding its tax regime and policies on trade, foreign direct investment, and licensing, as well as ensure that its potential partners are aware of whom to approach for specific needs, such as land allocation. Gaps in this type of knowledge, as well as in the understanding of connectivity in the region, make fixing problems more challenging. Furthermore, the lack of an organized financial sector and poor performance of banks impedes foreign businesses looking to operate in Afghanistan; companies unable to find local sources of financing are often discouraged from doing business in the country.

Corruption on both local and national levels remains a prevalent problem in Afghanistan and in the region, hampering progress in numerous sectors. A system with laws that grant discretionary powers to specific officers, groups of officers, or agencies with little to no oversight or arbitration allows corruption to flourish. Introducing a system that involves tiers of officers and third-party arbitration—such as from a chamber of commerce—could help to curb this. 

The role played by chambers of commerce on a national and transnational level is significant and growing. Many issues facing businesspersons in Afghanistan and its neighboring countries—such as a limited awareness of policies and opportunities, an overwhelmingly negative international perception of the country, and a lack of engagement of the private sector across borders—could benefit from increased involvement and engagement of national and trans-national chambers of commerce. Participants stressed the effectiveness of trans-national chambers, such as PAJCCI, and advocated for the creation of a regional chamber of commerce, which would include Iran and India in addition to Afghanistan and Pakistan, to facilitate business-to-business resolution of problems. 

Mutual misunderstandings arise in the region because of minimal bilateral and multilateral connections with neighbors; business networks can play a valuable role to alleviate this and foster regional integration. Private sector participation can both facilitate Afghan growth and development and encourage and increase regional cooperation. However, at present, Afghanistan’s private sector is largely disorganized. Engaging the private sector creates connections, contributes to the alleviation of cross-border misunderstandings and enables the achievement of results beyond government’s reach. 

Energy
Participants emphasized the importance of energy cooperation to the region, highlighting the potential for alleviating seasonal power supply scarcity issues and encouraging cooperation with economic incentives based around the cross-border transmission of energy. Strategic energy projects can be used to create political impetus to cooperate within the region. However, a lack of formal trans-border cooperation undermines efforts that are currently underway, and the fragile security situation in parts of Afghanistan places the safety of infrastructure in question. 

Regional energy projects should be backed by large energy-importing countries. In this context, Indian involvement in the regional energy equation is fundamental. With falling energy prices and the resurgence of Iran as a key energy supplier, exporting states should have a regional powerhouse able to absorb large quantities of primary energy. The diversification of energy exports from Central Asian states is imperative for these countries if they do not want to lose out to more competitive suppliers. A balanced regional energy equation will require the involvement of both China and India as energy buyers.

The Chinese “One Belt One Road” (OBOR) initiative stands to greatly contribute not only to trade and investment but also to the regional energy market; increased demand will be a positive factor for energy suppliers, particularly as the initiative will increase China’s demand for oil and gas on the basis of renewed growth in 10-15 years. OBOR has the potential to unlock Central Asia’s hydrocarbon resources and bring them to the international markets. New infrastructure linkages will create new interdependencies, which will mean a more conducive environment for the region as a gas exporter.

However, greater political stability and security will be necessary to attract investors and ensure the safety of the infrastructure projects. The Turkmenistan–Afghanistan–Pakistan–India (TAPI) pipeline is intended to go through fragile South-West Afghanistan and Pakistan’s unstable Baluchistan. TAPI is expected to cost 12 billion USD and will be partially funded by the Asian Development Bank (ADB). ADB will provide only a small fraction of necessary funds; the remainder is expected to come from the private sector. At this point, energy companies view TAPI as a gamble due to the operational uncertainty and high risks linked with security threats. It should be noted, though, that similar regional projects have been successful in other parts of the world if backed by political will and financial support, including from international donors. Once realized, these projects have contributed greatly to the stability of the host countries and have led to further interstate cooperation.

Progress on the Central Asia-South Asia-1000 (CASA-1000) electricity transmission project has been slow, as well. Afghanistan is presently working to change the project from a 3-converter to a 2-converter project, to overcome potential compatibility issues and extend the list of potential hardware suppliers. The government is also discussing the sovereign guarantee that is being demanded for the project; as a transit country Afghanistan must focus efforts on protecting the power supply coming into the country.

Demand for electricity in Afghanistan is expected to rise tremendously; at present, only 20 percent of Afghans have access to electricity and the government remains the main stakeholder and provider of funds in the power sector. Furthermore, properly enforced laws and regulations are needed to regulate the power sector in Afghanistan, and this should be accompanied by sovereign guarantees for the power plant and infrastructure companies. Private industry involvement in the form of construction, financing, and maintenance of infrastructure should be encouraged. Independent power projects and public-private partnerships represent an opportunity to meet the rising demand for electricity, but the government must give confidence to the investors that these projects will come to fruition.

Afghanistan represents opportunity in the regional energy market as both a supply state and a transit route. Additionally, Afghanistan’s integration into the regional market will be a win-win solution for both the country and South Asia. Trans-border pipelines and energy projects are crucial to regional integration and political cooperation. For instance, South and Central Asia face energy shortages and trans-Afghan energy projects can reduce the current energy deficit and contribute to the region’s energy security. Such energy projects also stand to help peace prospects for the country and increase the impetus for political cooperation within the region. 

Regional Initiatives and New Opportunities
Major projects and international agreements, including TAPI and CASA-1000 as well as the Afghan Pakistan Transit and Trade Agreement (APTTA), remain a centerpiece for economic cooperation in the region. Participants agreed that the resulting economic incentives will continue to drive regional cooperation in a positive direction. The December 2015 breaking of ground on the TAPI pipeline was a significant achievement; however, slow progress on CASA-1000 and the failure of the APTTA negotiations to include Tajikistan and India indicate that much work remains to be done in this field. States involved in these initiatives should avoid disruptions due to political reasons; political and economic relations between states should be kept distinctly separate to ensure mutual economic progress and incentivize continued regional cooperation. However, a number of emerging initiatives look to offer a chance for new regional agreements. China’s OBOR initiative, currently involving Pakistan through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, seeks to revitalize the old Silk Road and presents an opportunity for Afghanistan to connect with the rest of the region. Participants recommended that Afghanistan should explore opportunities for linkages with OBOR. In addition, the reemergence of Iran as a player presents new opportunities for engagement in Afghanistan’s development process.

The opportunities presented by the new, growing involvement of China and Iran in the region stand to alter the realities of cross-border trade and transit, shifting the most expedient routes and providing better market access for Afghan exports. Development on Iran’s Chabahar port could potentially redirect some Afghan trade from Pakistan to Iran, through which Afghan goods could more easily reach the lucrative Indian market. The Chabahar port could indeed allow Afghan goods to reach New Delhi in five days total, nearly halving the transit time when sent through Pakistan. However, participants agreed that the developing ports of Chabahar in Iran and Gwadar in Pakistan should be viewed as complementary, and not as competitors. In fact, Pakistan’s geographical location and trading history with Afghanistan will likely allow it to remain the country’s most prominent commercial partner regardless of opportunities offered by other neighbors. Furthermore, the construction of a direct road connection from Gwadar to the Afghan ring road could provide an incentive for continued use of Gwadar. Connection to Gwadar would afford Afghanistan a linkage with projects related to China’s “One Belt One Road” initiative, and would contribute to the viability of the Gwadar port itself. In addition, Chinese administration of the Gwadar port could potentially allow many Afghan-Pakistani bureaucratic issues to be worked around. At the moment, there does not seem to be much Chinese interest in the construction of a straight road from Gwadar. However, if China truly has an interest in expanding its reach in the region, it could be an option they may eventually pursue. 

Background
Since 2013, EastWest Institute’s Afghanistan Reconnected Process has focused on promoting the win-win potential of enhanced regional economic and political cooperation in order to foster not only development, but also security and stability in Afghanistan and greater Central and Southwest Asia. EWI established a long-standing network of high-level representatives from governments, parliaments, and the private sector from Afghanistan, China, India, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Europe, and the United States, as well as from regional and international organizations.

Through a series of high-level consultations, sponsored by the governments of the United Arab Emirates and of Germany, the Process provides this network with a platform to identify and overcome major obstacles to regional trade and transit. The practical recommendations for policy reform resulting from this process have been presented to the governments of Afghanistan, India, Pakistan and Tajikistan in the course of 2015.

The event in Istanbul is part of a review phase of the Afghanistan Reconnected Process, during which the EastWest Institute is taking stock and sharing the progress of the region with the international community, as well as future needs to support the stability and prosperity of Afghanistan and its neighborhood. A comprehensive report outlining policy recommendations derived from this process over the last four years will be issued in late summer of 2016. The next phase of the process will focus on engaging Afghanistan’s neighbors and addressing their strategic role, i.e. on the opportunities of a post-sanctions Iran, and on how to assure that China’s “One Belt One Road” policy also benefits Afghanistan.

For more pictures from this conference, click here.

The nuclear agreement and the lifting of sanctions offer a window of opportunities for Iran to economically and politically reintegrate into the international community. Against this background, EWI and Tehran-based think-tank IPIS solidified their partnership by signing a MoU.

Short-term joint projects will be an international conference on Afghanistan to be held in Iran, and a seminar on the technicalities of lifting sanctions to be held in Brussels. At the same time, EWI—which sees itself as a non-partisan broker—will continue its informal dialogue between Iran and Saudi Arabia in cooperation with the German think-tank CARPO. 

EastWest Institute’s Vice President for Regional Security, Ambassador Martin Fleischer, and the director of EWI’s MENA program, Kawa Hassan, visited Tehran from June 6 to 9, 2016, at the invitation of The Institute for Political and International Studies of the Islamic Republic of Iran (IPIS). Along with IPIS’s director, Dr. Mostafa Zahrani, Amb. Fleischer signed a Memorandum of Understanding to pave the way for cooperation not only in the field of research and academic exchange but notably in “Track-II Diplomacy.”

The MoU says in this regard: “The Contracting Parties shall jointly work towards holding or facilitating workshops and similar programmatic activities with the purpose of promoting cross-border trust-building across policy areas. Special regional and international issues of mutual interest include the future of Afghanistan and its neighborhood, migration, refugees, combating narcotic drug trafficking, environment, climate change, sustainable development, human rights, as well as security and cooperation in the Persian Gulf region.”

Amb. Fleischer and Mr. Hassan also held talks with other academic institutions, such as Institute for Middle East Strategic Studies. In addition, Mr. Hassan gave two presentations at Tehran International Studies and Research Institute (TISRI) and Center for Strategic Research (CSR) on the war against ISIS and Post-ISIS Syria and Iraq. 

The delegation also visited the Iranian Trade promotion Agency (TPA) with a view to engaging Iranian businesses into EWI’s Afghanistan Reconnected Process, which promotes regional economic cooperation in greater Central Asia. 

As life imitates art in this chaotic election year, a recent satirical German film helps illuminate the resurgence of right-wing, nativist populism across Europe, demonstrating how easily hateful ideas that should have been discredited decades ago can be cleaned up, repackaged, and slipped back into a country's national discourse. It is unclear what role right-wing extremism may have played in inspiring the senseless murder of UK Member of Parliament Jo Cox on June 16. Nevertheless, at a minimum, the harsh tenor of today’s political debate in Europe risks provoking violence. Tackling this crisis requires the European center to mount a robust first-principles defense of the liberal international policies and institutions that rebuilt postwar Europe and won the Cold War, while acknowledging where tough reforms are needed to address the genuine societal discontent at the root of these movements. At the same time, popular media must resist mainstreaming xenophobia and nationalist rhetoric, and instead challenge outrageous statements from the far-right, however slyly they may be packaged.

The premise of David Wnendt’s "Look Who's Back" ("Er ist wieder da")—a 2015 German film based on Timur Vermes’ 2012 satirical novel of the same name—is that a shell-shocked Adolf Hitler inexplicably wakes up in present day Berlin. After an anachronistic fascist-out-of-water comic first act, in which Hitler orients himself to the changes of the past 70 years, the character  becomes a national media sensation on the German reality TV and talk show circuit by striking all the right(-wing) chords of postmodern European societal insecurity. Cynical German TV producers seize on the protagonist’s unexpected popularity to drive up ratings, mistaking his actual odious views for an edgy comic routine. Novelty, spectacle, and scandal ensure snowballing media coverage, which give his dangerous beliefs a national platform.

That half of the movie alone would be worth watching as interesting if rather disquieting satire. But more powerful is Wnendt’s threading of unscripted footage throughout the film of the character interacting on the street with real Germans and tourists of today. Although you see many ordinary people shun a man walking around German public squares dressed as Hitler, others share their grievances on unemployment and immigration and nod their heads as the character suggests reinstituting labor camps or selective breeding as solutions. “Look Who’s Back” artfully poses the question of what is more unnerving: that people in one of the best educated, most prosperous, and most tolerant nations on the planet could still harbor simplistic, reactionary, and hateful sentiments; or that a garrulous and offensively charismatic TV personality could uncover them so easily.

Unlike in populist rhetoric itself, there are no easy scapegoats or silver bullets for today’s crisis of a resurgent far-right. The West must of course be vigilant against the malign foreign actors that quietly benefit from and support its rise and the fracturing of the political center in Europe. Yet, while a country like Russia can be viewed as opportunistically helping fan the flames (e.g. through loans funding Le Pen’s Front Nacionale in France or twitter trolls in St. Petersburg), it did not set the kindling or light the spark. The discontent at the heart of these movements is genuine among many people in Europe who do feel unmoored and vulnerable. For various reasons, these people do not feel or recognize the benefits afforded by a liberal post-war order anchored by open societies, free trade, social progress, institutions such as the European Union, or alliance structures such as NATO. A large part of the problem is that many of those who work within this system hold those benefits as a given. They take the progress Western societies have made for granted. In truth, recovery from the global financial crisis of eight years ago and ensuing Eurocrisis has been slow in coming and reached various European national economies and individuals unevenly. This lost decade comes on the heels of years of cumulative growth in Europe and has thus created a sense of inequality and unmet expectations akin to the socioeconomic conditions in which right-wing extremism flourished in the 1930s.

Some European centrist parties have responded by taking sharply right towards populist positions. This tactic appears to have backfired in several countries, boosting far-right parties (as in the case of Slovakian parliamentary elections in March), mainstreaming xenophobia in the public debate (as in France), or teeing up a wholly avoidable strategic blunder in the United Kingdom’s upcoming Brexit vote (a political own-goal in this year of Euro Cup). The European center would do better to define and mount a robust defense of its core values rather than shamefully (and apparently ineffectively) parrot those of the far-right.

This crisis presents a chance for those in system to challenge their assumptions so that they can appropriately modernize and improve the postwar system. On the economic side, this means better understanding the various structural, technological, and demographic roots of declining productivity and rising income inequality, as well as the strengths and deficiencies of our current policy toolbox to address them. On the security side, it means redoubling efforts to reinvigorate NATO to address the threats emanating from its Eastern and Southern flanks and bolstering the credibility of collective defense in the eyes of jittery transatlantic citizens and calculating adversaries. A hard scrub and earnest reform of the policies and institutions that have served most of the West well for the past 70 years will help us ensure benefits are more broadly felt for the next 70, and help update and strengthen the public arguments in their defense.

Part of making this argument also means inculcating in today’s generations a proper sense of historical perspective and an appreciation for “what could have been” had their Atlanticist forebears, surveying the global wreckage of two World Wars, not put forth up an international system that rejected isolationism and is guided by the values and norms of liberal democracies and multilateralism. This does not mean falling into the trap of the “End of History” triumphalism of the immediate post-Cold War 1990s, but instead giving a sober, basic principles defense of the best parts of the liberal international system and contrast them to what the past century has shown are the dreadful alternatives.

Finally, a new rigor is required in the policy analysis and broader societal conversation on these topics in the West to encourage audiences to ignore the spectacle of the messenger and keep focused on the content of the message. Voters must look past the slick packaging and smart suits of Europe’s new extreme right-wing parties and instead see their disgraceful heritage. And, as “Look Who’s Back” warns, the media must avoid embracing the sound and fury of these far-right populist campaigns as ratings-driving television or click-bait headlines (this no harmless tale told by an idiot), but rather relentlessly fact-check, dispute, and hold manipulative, nationalist politicians accountable for every claim they make.

Alton V. Buland is Country Director for Turkey, Cyprus, and Malta in the Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy and holds degrees in modern European history and strategic studies from Harvard and the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies. The views herein are his own and do not represent those of the United States Department of Defense or the United States government.

The views expressed in this post reflect those of the author and not that of the EastWest Institute.