Politics and Governance

I served two tours of duty in Afghanistan. During my first deployment in 2009, I was the Chief of Plans for ISAF Joint Command working under U.S. Generals David M. Rodriguez and Stan McChrystal. During my second tour in 2010, I assumed command of combined Team Uruzgan, a diverse force of coalition soldiers from ten countries, including Australia, Singapore, France, New Zealand, and the United States (see:“Shades of Gray in Afghanistan”).

These two deployments in the country revealed to me the extent to which fear of Pakistan permeated all Afghan discussions pertaining to national security and that such a pervasive angst had the potential to undermine our joint efforts in combating Taliban insurgents. Here are two brief examples.

In October 2009, the Afghans were in the process of training and equipping their sixth Afghan National Army Corps, the 215th Corps.  With the support of ISAF and NATO, this major combat unit represented a significant increase in combat capability.  The unit was designed to help bring security to the southern and eastern regions in Afghanistan and serve as a counter balance to the Taliban safe havens in Pakistan.  The deployment location and mission of the 215th Corps was a critical strategic decision worthy of significant analysis and debate at the highest levels in Kabul.

After exhaustive analysis which examined the Taliban disposition, Afghan National Army force allocation, and a review of critical information associated with the most pressing threats to the Afghan government, the recommendation of the Afghan Army staff, supported by ISAF, was to station the 215th Corps in the vicinity of Helmand Province. This decision was made to relieve the hard pressed 205th Corps in Kandahar and double the Army’s effort in the most threatened area of Afghanistan. Eliminating the Taliban presence in Kandahar was seen as essential to the success of the over-all mission.  Establishing a major Army headquarters in Helmand with the new 215th Corps would enable to 205th Corps to concentrate its forces on the most critical region.

The plan as designed was approved and executed, achieving dramatic results in Kandahar. After two years of fighting with the 205th Corps focused in Kandahar and the 215th focused in the adjacent Helmond province, the Taliban had largely been eliminated from Kandahar. Yet, the plan as briefed by the Afghan Army staff was approved only after heated exchanges and pointed discussions centered on whether the Corps should be focused on Taliban insurgent activity or against a potential armored attack from Pakistan directed at seizing Kabul.

The deep seeded mistrust and historical animosity between Afghan and Pakistan leaders directly influenced the planning for critical Army unit mission assignments and could have prevented what turned out to be a substantial gain against the Taliban.

In August 2010, Provincial Governor Khoday Rahim was holding a district wide Shura the isolated village of Chora in southern Afghanistan. This was his first visit since the accidental death of the district governor, Rosie Khan, and it turned into what seemed like a giant episode of the “Jerry Springer Show.”  Rosie Khan’s son, Mohammad Dawood Khan, had taken over as the district governor and the provincial governor was going to discuss challenges to local security and economic growth. At the Shura, the tribal elders and other leaders of the district met with the governor and other Afghan and Coalition leaders, including the police chief, Brigadier General Gul, the army commander, Brigadier General Hamid, and the National Directorate of Security chief, General Zakaria. The pointed discussions lasted four hours in the shade of the district center building in temperatures in excess of 100 degrees Fahrenheit. Chora’s leaders raised issues about Taliban influence, water sharing agreements, the need for education and health care requirements.  The Provincial Coalition leaders — myself included — received these points, offered updated information and pledged to do everything possible to help the city improve to the maxim extent possible.

The most memorable comment came from an older leader, who looked to be in his eighties.  As is the custom, he got up from his seated position on the floor to address the assembled Shura. He began by stating that the source of all problems in Chora stemmed from Pakistan. Unsurprisingly, he asserted that the Pakistan Inter-Services Intelligence agency was responsible for the Taliban, created all internal challenges with the Afghan government and was at the heart of problems with development and governance throughout Afghanistan. After a 45-minute monologue, he concluded with the conviction that the only reason Pakistan had nuclear weapons was to use them on Afghanistan prior to an all-out invasion and occupation.

The distrust of Pakistan permeates discussions and drives decision making from the outer districts like Chora to the highest levels of government. The accusations regarding Pakistan’s support to the Taliban, ISI support and manipulation of critical Afghan functions, and long standing territorial disputes are forefront in the minds of political, military and citizen thinking.

President Ashraf Ghani attacked this notion head on. Prior to assuming the presidency of Afghanistan he recognized that peace and stability in Afghanistan was only to be achieved with full cooperation with the Pakistan military establishment as well as the civilian government. His landmark visit to the Pakistan Minister of Defense in November 2014 exemplifies his dedication to reversing the friction between the two Central Asian countries.

Ghani has made several additional visits to Pakistan. He has empowered his ministries to engage closely with their Pakistani counterparts. Working to bring a regional approach to economic development as well as military cooperation against both the Afghan and Pakistani Taliban are at the forefront of his aspirations. Reducing the 16 day transit time for fresh produce to get from Kandahar to Karachi; approving long term multi entry visas; improving the transshipment process and border crossing point operations; capitalizing on Afghanistan’s vast mineral and agricultural opportunities; and improving cooperation on implementation of  the Central Asia South Asia Electricity Transmission and Trade Project (CASA 1000), the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India Natural Gas Pipeline (TAPI) Project, and the Afghanistan Pakistan Transit Trade Agreement (APTTA) among others, are all on the president’s economic high priority list.

On his military priority list, he has pledged to work with Pakistan on reducing the Taliban’s safe havens on both sides of the border. He must eliminate or at least reduce the influence and perception of influence of the ISI. The cooperation between Afghan and Pakistani militaries has improved dramatically but needs to be expanded to the Haqqani network and other insurgents who are not yet targeted. Leaders of both countries acknowledge these challenges and pledged to work toward mutually beneficial solutions.

During a recent trip I took with the EastWest Institute to Islamabad, senior leaders at the ministerial and presidential level confirmed the necessity and the commitment to move forward together to improve cross border cooperation against common enemies and to make demonstrable progress toward regional economic cooperation. Much work needs to be done. Each Pakistani ministry recognized that the window of opportunity opened by Ghani would stay open only so long. They all understood that the Afghan President had taken significant risks in reaching out to both Pakistani military and civilian leaders. These risks must be rewarded quickly by concrete and verifiable actions that could be used as compelling evidence of Afghan and Pakistani cooperation in both military and economic terms.

The Pakistani ministries and senior political leaders are committed to achieving increased cooperation with Afghanistan and taking advantage of the excellent opportunity afforded them. Afghanistan’s patience and Ghani’s political capital are not infinite. Cooperation across the border is a vital component to long-term regional security. Both Afghanistan and Pakistan need to demonstrate commitment to mutually beneficial actions by achieving tangible results quickly.

For the full article published by The Diplomat, click here. 

Experts included: 

• Angela McKay, director of cybersecurity policy and strategy, the Microsoft Corporation
• Kaja Ciglic, senior cybersecurity strategist, the Microsoft Corporation
• Vladimir Ivanov, director of EWI's Moscow Centre
• Russian information security experts from the Institute for U.S. and Canadian Studies, Lomonosov Moscow State University

For the full article by InSerbia News, click here.

For additional information published by InSerbia News on Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic's visit to the United States, click here.

In February 2012, Xi Jinping, then vice-president of China, made a visit to the United States. During the trip, he called for “a new model of major-country relations befitting the 21st century” between China and the US. Three months later, then Chinese President Hu Jintao said in his speech to the opening session of the fourth round of China-US Strategic and Economic Dialogue (S&ED) that “no matter how the international landscape or our domestic situations may evolve, China and the US must remain committed to enhancing our partnership and strive to build a new model of major-country relations that reassure the international community as well as our own publics.” Fast forward to June 2013. Xi Jinping, the recently elected President of China, held a retreat with US President Barack Obama at Sunnylands in California. During the summit, Xi laid out, in considerable detail, China’s proposal to build a new model of major-country relations with the US featuring no conflict or confrontation, mutual respect and win-win cooperation, to which Obama responded positively.

In my view, this vision of a new model of China-US relations is important for three reasons.

First, it outlines a new possibility of relations between a rising power and an established power.

After China overtook Japan as the second largest economy in 2010, US officials and pundits began to discuss the implications of China overtaking the US one day as the world’s largest economy. Some predict that this would happen as early as 2020 and no later than 2030. Trained in historical fatalism and the realist theory of international politics, American analysts are inclined to think that a rising China will inevitably challenge US interests and a collision between Beijing and Washington is all but certain. According to this argument, the US should start to prepare itself for such an eventuality. Mindful of this narrative, China offered to construct a new model of relations with the US. If successful, this attempt can help both sides to avert “the tragedy of great-power politics”, avoid the Thucydides’ trap and prove historical fatalism wrong.

Second, it champions an inclusive approach to China-US interactions in the Asia-Pacific region.

Early in his first term, President Obama announced a “pivot” to Asia. By increasing strategic, political, economic and security investments in the region, Washington seeks to contain the rapidly growing strength and influence of Beijing. This strategy has heightened differences and tensions, and created a more competitive environment in the region. It raises the specter of Sino-American conflict, which would be destructive to the bilateral relationship, and might jeopardize peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific region. To stave off this dire scenario, China has championed a more inclusive approach. Chinese leaders argue that the Pacific Ocean is big enough for the two nations. China and the US should strive to avoid conflict and confrontation, show mutual respect and pursue win-win cooperation. By addressing sources of competition and friction, the two countries build a more positive relationship in the region.

Third, it reflects China’s commitment to peaceful development and win-win cooperation as it rises to major-country status.

Under the new leadership, China has pioneered ground-breaking theories and practices in its diplomacy. Whether or not China can build a constructive relationship with the US will be the touchstone of this new approach. Conversely, the vision of a new model of major-country relations can enrich China’s innovations in diplomatic theory and practice. Make no mistake: the vision is not aimed at challenging American supremacy in the world, seeking parity with Washington, or forming a G2 with the US. On the contrary, it is to maximize positive interactions and constructive cooperation between the world’s largest developing and developed countries. A more immediate goal is to dispel strategic distrust between the two sides and the often negative predictions about China-US relations, and persuade the world that this vital relationship is a positive, amicable, cooperative, constructive and predictable one.

Since 2013, some tangible progress has been made toward realizing this vision.

First of all, Chinese and US leaders are pursuing constructive dialogue with unprecedented depth and width.

The Sunnylands summit between President Xi Jinping and President Obama in June 2013 created a new model of engagement between our leaders. Without fussing over whether it was a state or working visit, the two presidents spent more than eight hours in face-to-face dialogue. They discussed a broad array of issues: from domestic developments and governance experience to economic and financial issues facing China and the US, from traditional bilateral issues to nontraditional regional and global challenges such as North Korea’s nuclear program, climate change and cyber-security. While helping to drive China-US cooperation around concrete issues, the meeting did not shy away from certain long-standing disagreements. The Sunnylands summit will be remembered as an unprecedented investment in China-US relations for its novel format, length and depth of discussion, and range of topics.

Then in November 2014, President Obama came to Beijing to attend the APEC Economic Leaders’ Meeting, after which he paid a state visit to China. All eyes were on his meeting with President Xi. As it turned out, the two presidents spent ten hours together over two half-days. They met informally at the Zhongnanhai leadership compound for an evening walk, a restricted meeting, a private dinner and a tête-à-tête over tea, where they shared domestic developments and priorities. The next morning, they met again in formal talks to discuss bilateral and international issues at the Great Hall of the People.

Both sides characterized the conversations as constructive, candid, sincere, in-depth and productive. Obama said that they gave him “the most comprehensive, in-depth understanding of the history of the Chinese Communist Party and its idea of governance and a better understanding of why Chinese people cherish national unity and stability.” Through these talks, the two leaders had an opportunity to reaffirm their shared desire to work toward a new model of relations, increase mutual understanding, address misperceptions and reduce mistrust. With Obama passing the halfway point of his presidency and contemplating his diplomatic legacy, the meeting drove home to him the importance of building a more positive relationship with China in his last two years in office. He sounded a positive note at a joint press conference with Xi, saying, “The truth is that we have made important progress today for the benefit of both of our nations and for the benefit of the world. The truth is that even more progress is possible as we continue to develop this important relationship. I am confident that we will be able to do so.”

In addition to unprecedented presidential “face-time”, China and the US have also reaped “early harvests” over the last two years in important bilateral and multilateral areas.

The two sides have agreed to launch substantive negotiations on a bilateral investment treaty (BIT) based on pre-establishment national treatment and a negative list, a major breakthrough in China-US economic engagement. Meantime, two-way trade and investment continue to soar. Last year saw a record $555.1 billion of trade and $120 billion of cumulative investment between China and the US.

For too long, military-to-military ties have lagged other areas of the relationship. After the two presidents agreed at Sunnylands to improve and enhance mil-to-mil relations, a number of advances have been made, such as increased interactions at all levels, institutionalized dialogue and consultation, exchanges between young officers, joint trainings and exercises. Last summer, China participated for the first time in the RIMPAC exercise organized by the US, a significant breakthrough as China fielded the second largest fleet (after the US) in the 23-nation exercise. This was followed by the signing of the mechanism of notification of major military activities and the code of safe conduct for maritime and air encounters by senior defense officials in November 2014. These two confidence-building mechanisms (CBMs) will go a long way toward bolstering strategic trust, managing crisis and preventing risks between China and the US and help to reduce the chances of miscalculation and accidents involving their militaries.

The expansion of bilateral exchanges calls for a more convenient visa regime. Last November, the two presidents agreed to issue five-year, multiple-entry visas to each other’s students and ten-year, multiple-entry visas to each other’s business travelers and tourists. The announcement was hugely popular in both countries and will surely bolster people-to-people exchanges across the Pacific. As a result, the number of Chinese visas issued to US visitors grew by 54% in the three months after the announcement, culminating in 4.3 million two-way visits for 2014.

In the multilateral arena, the two sides have reached bilateral understanding to expand the WTO’s Information Technology Agreement (ITA), which will inject momentum into multilateral discussions in Geneva. The two sides have enjoyed close communication and coordination on the Iranian nuclear issue and worked together to drive progress in the P5+1 negotiations. They have also stayed in close touch on the Korean nuclear issue to maintain peace and stability on the peninsula and in northeast Asia. In addition, there have also been collaborative efforts to improve the situation in Syria, Afghanistan, South Sudan and to fight the Ebola epidemic in Africa.

The joint announcement on climate change issued after the Xi-Obama summit last November deserves special mention. With the United Nations Climate Conference scheduled for December in Paris, the world is watching whether an agreement can be secured to limit global temperature rise to 2 degrees Celsius from pre-industrial levels. As the world’s largest emitters, the positions of China and the US will be crucial. The joint announcement was eye-catching because it contained clear targets: the US intends to achieve an economy-wide target of reducing its emissions by 26%-28% below its 2005 level in 2025, while China intends to increase the share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to around 20% by 2030 and achieve the peaking of CO2 emissions around 2030. Both sides agreed to push for a global deal at the Paris conference. Meantime, China and the US will enhance practical cooperation, including on advanced coal technologies, nuclear energy, shale gas, renewable energy, carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), low-carbon cities, and trade in green goods. These significant steps will bring about a paradigm shift in the global politics of addressing climate change. The New York Times noted that in the past, no country was willing to cut emissions until other countries have done so; with the China-US announcement, countries will be motivated to follow their leadership. This demonstrates the enormous value of China-US cooperation to strengthening global governance.

More can be expected. On Feb 11, President Obama called President Xi to invite him to pay a state visit to the US in conjunction with attending the UN’s 70th anniversary events, which Xi readily accepted. The Chinese and US teams are preparing the ground for a successful visit, which will hopefully cement the momentum of high-level engagement, remove mistrust and build consensus for better relations through patient and in-depth dialogue, and deliver more tangible results of cooperation. If so, Xi’s September visit will surely drive new progress in building a new model of major-country relations between China and the US.

Let me end with a few thoughts on the implementation of the new-model vision.

Building a new model of China-US relations will be fraught and complex process full of opportunities and challenges. It is important that both sides adopt new thinking. China’s rise is taking place against the backdrop of economic globalization, regional integration and international cooperation in the post-Cold War environment. Committed to peaceful development and win-win cooperation, China has drawn lessons from the past. Beijing has expressed a sincere desire to avoid the strategic mistakes other rising powers have made and find a new path to major-country status. The US rose to global preeminence after the Second World War. It established a global architecture during the Cold War and stood out as the world’s sole superpower after the end of the Cold War. But times have changed. The US should stop relying on military and geopolitical methods as the way to maintain its advantageous position. It should stop viewing the rise of China in zero-sum terms and take a fresh look at its relationship with a rising power whose values and social system is fundamentally different from its own. Thus, both sides can give sustained impetus to the vision through new thinking and dynamic action.

To build a new model of China-US relations, the two sides need to respect each other’s core interests and major concerns and manage their differences and tensions. As China’s economy and interests continue to grow, Beijing will not shirk from upholding its sovereignty, security and development interests and will assume a bigger role in regional and global affairs. The US must stop thinking that China’s actions are targeted at the US and its allies and designed to weaken US supremacy or the regional order. Washington must not seek to counterbalance or even contain Beijing. Hence the importance of managing differences, which is as central to the relationship as augmenting cooperation. To do this, both sides must focus on the big picture, discard a confrontational approach and improve internal coordination.

To build a new model of China-US relations, both sides must approach it from a larger, global context. The course taken by China-US relations will have a big impact on world events. While our world is becoming more multi-polar and globalized, the urgency and challenges of global governance are more prominent. In the current phase of China-US relations, both sides need to closely monitor and analyze global developments, think outside the box, and be prepared for both opportunities and challenges in a fast-changing world. This is the best way to achieve sound and steady growth of China-US relations in the long run.

To read the article at China-US Focus Digest, click here.

In complex post-conflict environments, such as Afghanistan, security and development needs are intertwined. Without addressing both at the same time, it would be hard to ensure an enabling environment for sustainable economic growth. In other words, bullets alone cannot remedy Afghanistan’s situation. In the words of the campaign of former U.S. President Bill Clinton: “The economy, stupid.” That is a fact that is even more relevant in the fight against terrorism in Afghanistan.

A large number of the Taliban foot-soldiers, who former Commander of International Security Assistance Forces (ISAF) General David Petraeus used to call “ten-dollar-a-day Taliban,” are non-ideological. They have resorted to violence in the absence of a sustainable livelihood to support themselves and their families. Many of these rental fighters can and should be weaned off the battlefield by providing them with long-term incomes. This necessitates the creation of more jobs for Afghanistan’s youthful population in urban and rural areas, leading to a lasting stability. And those jobs should be sustainable in a productive economy, since history has shown that employment created through “quick fixes,” like cash-for-work projects, has only temporarily addressed what remains Afghans’ top need and concern, even before security.

Investment Opportunities

Afghanistan has urgent need for impact investment. Some 70 percent of its 30 million people are below the age of 25, many of whom are the breadwinners of large households, with additional dependents such as war widows and children. Because Afghans begin working from an early age to support their families, they are resilient and enterprising. At a relatively young age, despite a high rate of illiteracy, they constitute a responsible, energetic, and industrious workforce. Unfortunately, they lack access to skills development opportunities, capital, and credit to grow their small or medium businesses, which largely operate in Afghanistan’s vast informal economy.

This situation provides for numerous impact investment opportunities in every sector of the Afghan economy. In June 2012, at the Delhi Investment Summit on Afghanistan, the Afghan Ministry of Commerce and Industries presented to potential investors a detailed list of “Investment Opportunities in Afghanistan,” an updated copy of which is available online. At the summit, some 320 participating business representatives were informed of 25 different markets for investment in the following sectors.

· Energy
· Minerals
· Transport
· Agriculture and agribusiness
· Small and medium industries
· ICTs, finance, health services, and construction

With the exception of a few domestic and foreign “first movers” in each of these sectors and their related markets, most markets remain under-invested. The government of Afghanistan has frequently encouraged Indian and international investors to visit Afghanistan and see for themselves the countless, highly profitable investment opportunities in the country’s “virgin” markets.

Doing Business in Afghanistan  

To flourish, businesses need security and governance, and so not surprisingly most investors want to know about the business environment in Afghanistan. Insecurity and weak governance do actually undermine business efforts and put investments at risk. Like most post-conflict countries, Afghanistan is not free of these challenges, and the Afghan government continues to confront and address them in partnership with the international community.

Despite ongoing negative news about the situation in Afghanistan, the Afghan government has made monumental gains in building the military and civilian institutions of the state, based on one of the most progressive constitutions in the region, which provides for a private sector-led economy. The World Bank’s 2013 Doing Business Index ranked Afghanistan 28 out of 185 countries when it comes to establishing a business in the country. This has been made possible by the Afghanistan Investment Support Agency (AISA), which serves as a one-stop-shop for investors, foreign and domestic, enabling them to register and establish a business in Afghanistan within a couple of weeks.

And over the past 14 years, the Afghan government has enacted a number of commercial and investment laws, including a company law, consumer protection law, competition law, partnership law, and arbitration law, among others. This legislation has streamlined many of the problems associated with Afghanistan’s former centrally planned economy. However, while these laws meet international business and investment standards, there are times when a lack of institutional capacity prevents implementation and enforcement. In an effort to attract, facilitate, and retain long-term investment, the reforms agenda of the new National Unity Government of Afghanistan has prioritized the resolution of existing bottlenecks to ensure a business-friendly environment across Afghanistan.

The Way Forward

Afghanistan is a trade hub that links the Indian subcontinent with Central Asia, the Middle East, and China, a region that includes some of the fastest growing economies in the world. Its location also makes Afghanistan a natural locus for an emerging regional network of trade routes and pipelines.

The ease of competition and the ample potential for growth in Afghanistan are relatively new developments. For the first time in decades, Afghanistan enjoys the most investment-friendly environment in the region. The people of Afghanistan see these new opportunities as a way to rebuild their homeland. They are proud of their historical tradition of commerce and cultural exchange, dating back 2000 years, to the era of the Silk Road.

With each economic opportunity that is fulfilled, the people of Afghanistan move one step closer to reconnecting with their heritage and securing a future for their country. Indian and other regional investors are welcome to play a major role in helping the Afghan people fulfill their national destiny, which is intertwined with that of India and the rest of the region.

To read the article at The Diplomat click here.

To read our report on Afghanistan Reconnected: Regional Economic Security Beyond 2014 click here.