Politics and Governance

At the Gala, former Finnish president and longtime EWI stalwart Martti Ahtisaari was awarded the John Edwin Mroz award in recognition of his extraordinary contributions to peace in the last decades.  From Namibia to Kosovo, in his national and multinational roles, Ahtisaari put into practice that which EWI represents:  the power to build trust among individuals and institutions whose interests may not align; the ability to forecast solutions long before others see them; and the good will and patience to negotiate peaceful outcomes, in the tradition of the very best leaders in the world whose empathy and understanding allows them to see problems the way others might.

Finnish UN Permanent Representative Kai Sauer and EWI Board Chair Ross Perot Jr proudly presented the award, established in honor of EWI’s founder and longtime president, as a tribute to a man whose illustrious career has in many ways paralleled our own.

Inspired by the achievements of President Ahtisaari, the EWI team will continue to build its strong ties in China in the coming weeks.  It’s part of EWI’s strategic commitment to high-level understanding and trust-building between Chinese and American leaders, a commitment that has grown into a robust and active set of meetings in recent years.  

In November, I’ll lead the U.S. delegation to the annual U.S.-China High-Level Security Dialogue in Beijing, where we will meet with counterparts from the Chinese Communist Party, the Chinese government, and major Chinese think tanks and media organizations.  The experts on both sides will build on the trust and experience developed in recent years to discuss many of the issues that were on the agenda when China’s President Xi Jinping visited the United States this September and met both with President Obama and other world leaders at the United Nations General Assembly.  

From bilateral issues, to regional security challenges, to high-tech developments, this team will help deepen our understanding of the key issues both sides agree need to be addressed in order to head off conflicts before they start and anticipate new areas where our efforts to build trust can pay off in promoting stability in the years to come.

EWI will then return to Beijing in December with a team of former senior U.S. generals and military experts for the next iteration of the Sanya Initiative, in which we tackle Chinese and American mil-mil topics.  In the ranks of our distinguished delegation will be three former members of the United States Joint Chiefs of Staff.  Sanya is another of the processes in which EWI fosters deeper trust among those who continue to wield considerable influence with incumbent top defense officials in both countries.

It’s wonderful to be looking back at our achievements of the past; and it’s even more wonderful to see how that legacy is contributing to peace and stability in arguably the single most important bilateral relationship in the world today, that of China and America. There’s plenty more that EWI is planning before the end of the year, but these upcoming meetings in China, and the ongoing U.S.-China trust-building efforts they represent, show our deep commitment to building on the trust we help create and resolving outstanding issues before those issues become crises or conflicts.

To view an article about Firestein's speech at Consensus Media, click here. (In Chinese)

Firestein also appeared on NTDTV earlier this year to discuss his predictions for the elections. The question up for debate was whether America may elect an unconventional candidate as President over the more traditional politicians. Firestein's remarks are in English.

Firestein commented, "I still stand by my prediction very confidently, that she [Hillary Clinton] will be the nominee, and that she will become the next U.S. president." 

For the full inteview at NTDTV, click here.

On August 22, Colonel (Retired) Richard McEvoy, a dedicated soldier and truly great American, was killed in an Improvised Explosive Devise attack near the U.S Embassy in Kabul. My first squad leader in the Army and a fellow brigade commander at the 10th Mountain Division in Fort Drum, New York, Dick’s death caused me to reflect closely on the prospects for Afghanistan. After more than two years serving in Afghanistan as a brigade commander and chief planning officer at ISAF Joint Command, I have continued to be positive regarding the future of the country, but this incident made me question my convictions.

The EastWest Institute has sponsored the Afghanistan Reconnected Program for the last three years. The premise of the program is that in order to capitalize on the successes and progress made in Afghanistan over the last 14 years, Central and South Asian countries must work together to improve regional economic prosperity.

Our regular events involving regional business, governmental and academic leaders have centered on the opportunities associated with Afghanistan’s youthful and better-educated population, central location as a transportation hub, historic agriculture industry and potential mineral and energy sectors.

A high-ranking and dynamic group of private sector leaders and members of parliament from Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, Tajikistan, and other countries active in the region has identified concrete measures that can be taken to reduce border crossing procedures, improve the quality and timeliness of cross border commerce, capitalize on regional natural resource development, and streamline visa requirements, among other tangible actions that would serve to improve economic growth.

And while our team fully recognizes the challenges posed by historical mistrust, corruption, as well as an unstable security environment, it asserts that economic growth and regional stability are possible.

After successful trips to Islamabad and New Delhi, where the Afghanistan Reconnected team discussed the actions that could be taken with government and private officials including the president of Pakistan, and senior ministers in Islamabad, the EastWest Institute has been planning to carry these ideas and messages to senior leaders in Kabul.

However, Colonel (Retired) McEvoy’s death has caused EWI to seriously consider our underlying assumptions and analysis. The increase in violence in Kabul combined with Taliban advances in Helmand and Kunduz over the summer serves as another indicator of a tenuous situation. Government concerns regarding the flight of wealthy and educated Afghans are beginning to impact the growth potential of the country as a whole. President Ashraf Ghani’s unity government is only now filling all of its ministerial positions, which has slowed its internal anti-corruption reform and capacity building efforts. In addition, Ghani’s initial overtures, which had been seen as very positive in Islamabad, are not having the desired impact on bilateral cooperation with Pakistan.

The negative reports and indicators are worrisome when taken at face value but with some trepidation, I decided to accept an invitation to speak at the Sixth Regional Economic Cooperation Conference on Afghanistan (RECCA), hosted by the Afghan Foreign Ministry.

My arrival into Kabul International Airport after a four year absence helped alleviate some of my concerns. The airport itself now supports numerous regional and international carriers, and after the opening of a new international terminal in 2008 it now allows travel to over 15 destinations, and has the capacity to host over 100 aircraft.

The roads, which had been either dirt or in dire need of repair, are now paved with newer cars filling the lanes. The once ubiquitous donkey carts are now mostly replaced by small trucks and new stores. The children were in school and the ministries functioning.

Most importantly, although the security situation has forced international organizations, Afghan government and private entities to retreat behind “Jersey Barrier” walls, commerce and trade continue to flow. Afghanistan has maintained steady economic relations in the region, increasing the country’s trade value by 7.70 percent in 2014. Pakistan is the top trade partner, which, in 2014, benefitted from a strong cross-border trade worth over $1,500 million – up from $1,087 million in 2013 (39.4 percent).

My assessment after a week in Kabul is that despite the disturbing reports and security challenges on the ground, there is an opportunity to consolidate gains in Afghanistan and continue to grow regional economic capacity.

However, various challenges remain, particularly when it comes to securing the country. The Afghan National Security Force continues to have mixed performance reviews, as reflected by the Taliban’s increased presence in the South and North combined with high-profile attacks in and around the capital and Kunduz.

Still, things are not looking as bleak and there are reasons for cautious optimism. Closer analysis of the Afghan National Security Forces indicates that although tending to become fixed to bases and therefore less effective in some areas, they have demonstrated success in offensive capability and independent coordination, and have dramatically improved their special operations capability. The police have been less successful in preventing attacks in the cities but have also proven to be competent and professional in their responses to emergencies. For example, the attack in Kabul in June, where one suicide bomber and six gunmen targeted the parliament building demonstrated police competence. After the suicide bomber detonated a car bomb outside of the compound, the six gunmen attempted to enter the parliament building where members of parliament were meeting with acting Defense Minister Masoon Stanikzai. Afghan security forces reacted quickly and managed to prevent the attackers from entering the building. Ghani personally congratulated one soldier in particular, Sergeant Esa Khan, who played a large role in the counter attack that killed all six gunmen. The Ministry of Interior Affairs has also been vocal in attributing the success of this incident to the effectiveness of police forces.

On top of this, the enemy they are fighting is more fragmented, between competing Taliban elements, ISIS, and tribal elements. This could lead to greater effectiveness as the summer fighting season closes in the coming months.

The NATO led coalition sacrificed thousands of lives and trillions of dollars in order to achieve ultimate stability in Afghanistan. The gains that have been made so far have not met the expectations of either the governments or the people. But the substantial progress that has been achieved cannot be ignored.

The improvements in education, governance, economic capacity, and security from 2001 are substantial. Basic education continues to slowly improve. With the help of the U.S. and other international donors, the Ministry of Education has been able to build more than 13,000 schools and train 186,000 teachers. These improvements are reflected in the increased enrollment of students in public universities which has grown from 7,800 in 2001 to 123,000 in 2013. Challenges with security and stability associated with the Coalition withdrawal are to be expected, but are not catastrophic. The Afghan government, with a respected leader at the helm, continues to make strides in fighting corruption and reaching out to regional neighbors to explore ways to improve economic and political cooperation.

The international community should continue to support the Unity Government, promote regional economic cooperation, assist and train Afghan security forces, and help the Afghan people maintain a positive attitude as they move toward a more stable environment with better prospects for economic security and regional stability.

To ignore Afghanistan now and pull away as we did in the 1990s in Afghanistan and in 2011 in Iraq is to surrender the security and economic gains and squander the sacrifices that have been made, thus insuring ultimate victory to factionalism and extremist voices.

To read this piece at The Diplomat, click here.

To read our report on Afghanistan Reconnected: Regional Economic Security Beyond 2014, click here.

To learn about Afghanistan Reconnected: Advocacy and Outreach Mission to Tajikistan, click here.

To find out more about James Creighton's presentation at RECCA-VI in Kabul, Afghanistan, click here.

Japan's relationship with its armed forces was once a defining characteristic of the nation. Indeed, "Fukoku kyohei [Enrich the state, strengthen the military]" was the battle cry of the reformers who founded modern Japan during the so-called Meiji Restoration beginning in the 1860s.

In the first decades of the 20th Century, Japan, rather than a state with a military, the island nation slowly transformed into a military with a state - "one hundred million hearts beating as one", as a wartime propaganda slogan boasted.

That all changed after the World War Two.

From offence to defence

The country's complete defeat, not to forget the deaths of 2.7 million Japanese men and women, ended Japan's love affair with its military.

A new constitution, written by the victorious occupying Americans, outlawed the creation of any regular armed forces. Japan was to be a "heiwakokka [peace nation]".

However, after the outbreak of the Korean War in 1950, the United States, fearing Communist expansion in Asia, pushed Tokyo to rearm.

To fight off "Red China", the US established the Japan Self-Defence Forces, a military that to this day has not fired a single shot in anger.

Unable to prove their worth in battle and confronted by an almost cult-like anti-militarism, throughout the Cold War, the JSDF suffered from public ridicule and disdain.

Just watch any of the early Godzilla movies showing the JSDF as an unimaginative and - more importantly - ineffective group of men incapable of defending Tokyo from the monster's wrath, and you can capture some of the public sentiments during that time.

Service members walking city streets in uniform in the early days of the JSDF were even pelted with stones.

Accidental heroes

At the end of the Cold War, in the 1990s, Japan's armed forces were finally able to polish up their image - not on the battlefield of course, but as an international peacekeeping force.

The JSDF deployed briefly in southern Iraq as part of the US "coalition of the willing", although they had to rely on others, including the Iraqis, for protection. Indeed, the JSDF are so adverse to violence that when a machine gun went off by accident, it made national headlines.

They also won plaudits for their role in rescue and relief missions after, for example, the Kobe-Awaji earthquake in 1995 and the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster.

To this day, this is how the majority of Japanese see the JSDF - a disaster relief force.

Fast forward to 2015, where things appear to be changing under the leadership of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and his Liberal Democratic Party.

Two controversial security bills that passed the upper house of the Japanese Diet - Japan's parliament - this September, will allow the JSDF to come to the defence of its allies even when Japan itself is not under attack.

Formidable fighting force

Despite much domestic and international hysteria that Japan could now be drawn into foreign conflicts, and potentially even launch a war, closer scrutiny reveals it still has a long way to go to cast off its pacific post-War legacy.

For one thing, under the new legislation, the JSDF can only come to the aid of an ally under three conditions:

• Japan's survival is at stake
• All other non-military options have been exhausted
• The use of force is limited to the minimum necessary to deter aggression

In addition, the JSDF can come to the rescue of other UN peacekeeping troops and Japanese civilians in danger and would be allowed to use their weapons first, not just strictly for self-defence.

Notwithstanding the narrow circumstances of action, the JSDF at least have the potential to become a formidable fighting force.

For one thing, the Japanese culture with its traditional emphasis on group cohesion, careful planning, and attention to detail - particularly important in today's hi-tech military environment- is an ideal for modern soldiering.

Indeed, American sailors, soldiers and marines who train with the JSDF and participate in various joint military exercises every year to increase operability are generally impressed by the competence of their Japanese counterparts.

The JSDF also sport some of the most modern military equipment in all of Asia, including modern fourth-generation main battle tanks, licence-built Apache attack helicopters, modern reconnaissance drones, and will soon receive new fifth-generation fighter jets.

Japan's navy, the Japanese Maritime Self-Defence Force (JMSDF), is considered to be technologically more advanced, more experienced, and more highly trained than its likely adversary - China's the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN). It also has its own highly trained special forces outfit - the Special Boarding Unit.

However, major, cultural, legal and budgetary restrictions remain.

For example, Japan continues to ban "offensive" weapons such as bombers, aircraft carriers, and long-range ballistic missiles and has no plans to acquire them in the foreseeable future, since they remain unconstitutional.

In addition, despite some improvements, the JSDF continue to enjoy a somewhat dubious reputation as a pool for "ochikobore [drop-outs from the regular school system]" and "inakamono [country bumpkins with strong regional dialects from Kyushu in the south and northern Honshu]".

How would the JSDF do in a military conflict with China over let's say the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu islands - a scenario that the US and Japan are practising every other year?

The JSDF would probably suffer initial setbacks under the chaotic conditions of the battlefield like any other force with no experience in combat, but - given their penchant for constant drill and exercises for such a contingency as well as their excellent planning ability - would do very well on the defence.

Godzilla can rest easy

However, the truth is that Japan's military would not be able to defend Japan alone in the long-run nor go on the offensive, primarily because of its lack of offensive weapons, limited manpower and equipment pool.

Behind the JSDF stands the US, and therein lies any strength it might wield.

Japan still has no obligation to support the United States in a conflict - the two countries, despite public impressions to the contrary, still have no mutual defence pact.

Japan can pick and choose whether it would like to support the United States in a conflict or not. In reality, this means that Japanese support for the United States in any future conflict is not a foregone conclusion.

This undermines their bilateral defence cooperation.

So what are the chances that the JSDF will fire a shot in anger anytime soon? Unless, China attempts an invasion of the Land of the Rising Sun, or North Korea launches one of its missiles against Tokyo, I'd say chances are as high as Godzilla re-emerging in the Sea of Japan.

To read this article at BBC NEWS, click here.