Politics and Governance

EWI’s U.S.-China High-Level Security Dialogue took place in Beijing on November 16-19. The American team—EWI staff and invited experts—was welcomed at the highest levels in China, from the think tanks of the Foreign and Defense Ministries to the Academy of Military Science of the People’s Liberation Army, from headquarters of the Communist Party's International Department to the Foreign Ministry to Peking. Yes, there is concern about terrorism, especially as a challenge in China’s west, where experts told us development has blunted efforts by extremists (and where the police keep things in check). Yes, there is concern about the increase in tensions in the South China Sea. But most of all, even among foreign policy and military experts, there is a focus on national goals internal to the country: doubling the GDP between 2010 and 2020 and achieving a “modernized country” by 2050.  

The Chinese leaders are more comfortable addressing climate change or proliferation in the context of their understanding of a multi-polar world, expressing repeatedly their commitment to win-win solutions and the common good. When pressed by visitors about how China can use its growing power to join the fight against the Islamic State, or contribute to settling the crisis of legitimacy in the Middle East, or stabilize Afghanistan, the answers reflected the primacy of domestic policy:  the importance of the reforms undertaken by President Xi. Even the One Belt, One Road policy is seen as much as a domestic project as a foreign one.

Most significant, perhaps, was the importance that the Chinese place in continued contact, and the enthusiasm with which they greeted the American team. It was clearly a priority that Wang Jiarui, Vice Chairman of the Chinese People’s Political Conference, emphasized in his meeting with the team. That there are ongoing challenges he readily admitted, both in domestic issues and with the outside world, including the United States. But he expressed very strong support for the ongoing programs of EWI with China, from the Sanya military-to-military initiative that will convene, also in Beijing, at the beginning of December, and the Party-to-Party talks that he personally hopes to attend in the U.S. late in 2016. Wang gave a frank appraisal as well of his own area of special competence, relations between China and North Korea. The Chinese are watchful, pragmatic, and very much engaged not only with their neighbors in the DPRK but also with the South Koreans and Japanese; Wang himself has made a strong effort to make sure that Beijing and Seoul understand one another well. He too, along with nearly every other foreign policy expert in the discussions, made clear that the future of the understanding built between groups of international experts relies, in the case of China, in close attention to the Chinese vision of their own internal developments. Without this, he noted, the basis on which relations are founded will be incomplete.

That said, it is clearly not enough to rely on bilateral links, successful as they may be in the efforts of EWI and the Chinese. The issues that America and China face are rarely issues limited to the two countries. In the South China Sea, let us not forget the role of Vietnam, the Philippines, or Malaysia, let alone the international conventions of the Law of the Sea.

In the course of the One Belt, One Road projects, the concerns of India, Pakistan and Afghanistan will be paramount. Indeed, there is clearly a need for more breadth of vision, breaking out of the straitjacket of bilateral meetings that sometimes repeat arguments that have been stated many times before. The Chinese and the American participants agreed that more partners and more issues will make that which EWI has built that much stronger. It will allow the other issues of the day—the terrorist threat in Europe, the challenges to stability in the Middle East—to enter the conversation between America and China in new ways as well.

Click here to listen to the podcast at The Diplomat. 

EWI's Board Member Kanwal Sibal was quoted in The Diplomat's Novermber 6 article "India May Have Quad Military Exercise with US, Japan, Australia: Ex-Top Diplomat."

As quoted in this article: Speaking at The Heritage Foundation, a Washington, D.C.-based think tank, on Tuesday, Kanwal Sibal, who previously served as Indian foreign secretary, expressed optimism at this convergence, suggesting that there may even be military exercises between the four countries in the next few years.

“To my mind, this is a step-by-step process, and I won’t be surprised if at some stage we also have the quadrilateral exercises in the Indian Ocean,” Sibal, who now serves as dean of the Center for International Relations and Diplomacy at the Vivekananda International Foundation, a New Delhi-based think tank, told the audience.

The four countries already did exercise together along with Singapore as part of Exercise MALABAR – which initially began as a bilateral naval exercise between the United States and India – back in 2007. While expanded exercises with all four countries have not occurred since then, as Sibal pointed out, there are already some signs that things are slowly moving in that direction.

Reflecting on these developments, Sibal said that India’s greater enthusiasm to participate in such exercises was testament to the changing security environment.

“Until a few years ago, it would not have been easy to imagine India to be a part of quad, or for that matter, even trilateral arrangements between the United States, Japan and India,” Sibal said.

“But times have changed, and nature of challenges has changed, and there is now need for these three or four countries to come together to see how these challenges can be addressed, not with a view to contain any country, but to ward off the possibility of peace and security to be disturbed.”

A big part of this, Sibal said, was China’s worrying assertiveness in the South China Sea, with policies which he described as “reckless” and a threat to freedom of navigation and overflight – a concern for India since 55 percent of its trade passes through those waters.

That said, Sibal also noted several challenges should the quad continue to take shape in the coming years. On China, Sibal said that the difficult task for the four nations would be to continue to maintain strong economic ties with Beijing for their own benefit while also challenging its assertiveness. China, he stressed, realizes this and is continuing to roll out new economic initiatives while also slowly testing Washington’s resolve in the security realm without triggering an all-out military clash.

“China is playing a game of brinksmanship, and, unfortunately, succeeding,” he said.

Sibal emphasized the need for the four countries to try to bring other partners – particularly the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) which is at the center of the emerging regional architecture – into the fold.

“The quad should not allow itself to be put in a position where we are at variance with the broader thinking in ASEAN because ASEAN is playing a very central role in terms of Asian security,” he said.

To read the full article at The Diplomat, click here. 

In order to advocate for continued regional economic cooperation in the face of a deteriorating security situation, EWI's Regional Security Initiative convened an event in Dushanbe on October 12-14, 2015. EWI's Vice President for Regional Security, Ambassador Martin Fleischer, led a delegation of senior political and business practitioners from Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, and Turkey, who met with high-ranking Tajik government officials. 

The mission highlighted the cross-border economic progress currently being seen, while exploring opportunities for continued intra-regional success and drawing attention to potential hurdles to further growth. Also on the discussion table were the significant security challenges currently facing Afghanistan and the greater Central Asian neighborhood, and how the region can continue to foster economic growth and development in a seemingly daunting situation.

Click here to download the full report. 

Click here to view pictures from the event.