Politics and Governance

Daily Ukraine Crisis Updates – May 22, 2014

EWI offers a daily situation report on Ukraine.

Internal Security News

  • Ukrainian border guards thwarted an attempt by “several groups of armed militants carrying weapons and ammunition from the Russian Federation to break through the state border of Ukraine.” The groups attempted to enter Ukraine at the border of the Krasnodonsky region of Lugansk Oblast.
  • Ukraine's largest bank announced that militants affiliated with the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk people's republics have hijacked 15 cash-in-transit vehicles since early May.

Diplomacy News

  • Russian Deputy ambassador Alexander Kramarenko was due to meet British Foreign Office officials in London to “ask for clarification” regarding a statement allegedly made by the Prince of Wales in which he likened Russian President Putin’s actions in Crimea to those of Hitler. A spokesman for the Russian embassy in London called the alleged remark “outrageous” and “propaganda against Russia.”
  • (ITAR-TASS) Australia’s sanctions against Russia will not be unanswered, the Russian Foreign Ministry pledged. “We have been repeatedly saying that Russia does not accept attempts to speak to it in the language of sanctions,” the ministry said.
  • The Russian Ministry of Culture demanded the return of a Scythian gold collection on loan to a museum in the Netherlands since February, stating that a failure to return it could be considered “embezzlement.” The Netherlands does not recognize Crimea's unification with Russia, which took place after the opening of the exhibition, and the question arose as to whom the collection should be returned to once the exhibition closes in August. Ukraine previously requested that the gold be returned to Kiev.

International Observation News

Governance News

Daily Ukraine Crisis Updates – May 21, 2014

EWI offers a daily situation report on Ukraine.

Internal Security News

Diplomacy News

International Observation Missions News  

Constitutional Reform News  

Governance News

Amb. Sibal on Modi's New Indian Foreign Policy

India's election of Narendra Modi and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) party brings with it a new foreign policy approach. Writing for MailOnline India, EWI Board Member Amb. Kanwal Sibal offers his opinion on Modi's potential policies across a range of issues. Amb. Sibal was a member of the Indian Foreign Service who went on to serve as the country's foreign secretary. 

Read the full story here on MailOnline India.  

 

Foreign Ties will Blossom Under the New Modi Government 

The BJP's massive electoral victory brings us foreign policy gains. The prospect of a strong and stable government in India makes our external image more positive.

Other countries could conclude that the new government will have a more self-confident foreign policy, and will defend the country's interests with greater vigour. Since the BJP is widely characterised at home and abroad as a Hindu nationalist party, it will be assumed that the Modi-led government will be more "nationalistic" in its thinking and actions, and will pursue national goals more sturdily. 

Decisive

Notwithstanding their rhetoric about India's global role, big powers have for long seen us as a country too preoccupied by internal problems to be able to act on the international stage sufficiently energetically. 

Issues of poverty and managing our complex diversities apart, coalition politics in India has been seen by our external interlocutors as contributing to governmental delays in decision making and failures in implementation even in the foreign policy domain. Modi's personality gives us cards to play externally with advantage. He is seen as a strong and decisive leader, committed to making India vibrant economically, and more secure. 

For those eyeing more economic engagement with India, Modi's development agenda offers greater investment opportunities. For those seeking more engagement on security issues, Modi's India will appear as a more confident partner. For adversaries, habituated to passive and defensive responses to deliberate provocations, the likelihood of a less tolerant Indian response under a Modi-led government might induce rethinking on their part about the price they may have to pay for aggressive or assertive policies. 

These real and psychological advantages that India obtains under Modi's leadership should not be frittered away needlessly. Prudence and "responsible" conduct are often used as a cloak to cover diffidence and timidity. There will be those who would advise that having won such a massive mandate, with all the political strength that comes with it, a Modi-led government, burdened by a negative ideological image that worries sections at home and abroad, should send re-assuring signals to all. 

There should be no requirement for this, as it is India that has been long sinned against. Sections of our political class, intellectuals and media personalities have done great disservice to the country by their incessant vilification and demonisation of Modi, making untenable historical parallels with the rise of fascism in Europe and making egregious references to Hitler and abusively using words like "genocide" to castigate him.

Initiatives

That otherwise sensible people should have for so long lost all sense of proportion remains a puzzle. Maybe they felt their self-esteem rise in proportion to their revilement of Modi. This calumny of Modi has naturally coloured outsiders' views of him, which explains the negative commentaries on him in the liberal western press. 

Modi's exceptional mandate, however, is derived from the masses of India, and they have chosen him for what he is and stands for, unbothered by the obloquy of his detractors. 

Questions are being asked as to what "initiatives" Modi could take on the foreign policy front now that he has got a strong mandate. This suggests it has become somehow incumbent on the new government to prove its credentials in some way to the international community. It also carries the nuance that India could not meet the expectations of select countries because his party hobbled the choices of the previous Prime Minister. 

A feeling also exists that the previous government missed opportunities and was too passive in its foreign policy, a situation that the new government should redress. The sub-text of most such criticism is that India failed to live up to US expectations and allowed the relationship to slip into a lower gear, besides not being able to push the then prime minister's vision of peace with Pakistan. 

Assertiveness

Not having engaged in any provocative act against either China or Pakistan, India would be right to wait for China and Pakistan to signal a change of thinking towards it. In reality, repeated provocations have come from their side, which the previous government preferred, in China's case, either to downplay or not counter, or, in Pakistan's case, avoid retaliation in order not to have to admit the failure of the policy of engagement despite terrorism and Pakistan's enduring hostility towards us. 

China's assertiveness on the border will have to be watched, especially because its conduct in the South China and East China Seas flashes red signals to us that at a time of its choosing its posture towards us can suddenly harden.

The recent signals from Pakistan have been uniformly negative, whether on Kashmir, curbing anti-Indian religious extremists, trade and water, and these have been capped by the expulsion of two Indian journalists despite the much touted media role in improving relations as signified, for example, by the "Aman ki Asha" initiative. Nawaz Sharif's congratulatory message to Modi should be taken as a routine diplomatic exercise, with the invitation to visit Pakistan as a way of making himself look good and win an easy diplomatic point.

Our relationship with the US remains very important, but to reinvigorate it the US should not let short-term transactional considerations take precedence over the logic of the strategic relationship. Modi being the sole victim of the US legislation on religious freedom, the White House should be issuing an Executive Order to annul the State Department's decision to blacklist Modi in the first place. 

While Obama's gesture of telephoning Modi and alluding to a Washington visit by him can be appreciated, the fact that as Prime Minister he can now obtain an "A" category US visa does not erase the original insult.

Photo Credit: Al Jazeera English via Flickr. 

Daily Ukraine Crisis Updates – May 20, 2014

EWI offers a daily situation report on Ukraine.

Internal Security News

  • An unknown number of masked gunmen stormed nearly a dozen district election commissions in eastern Donetsk and Luhansk and demanded at gunpoint that officials turn over ballots and other documents pertaining to the May 25 presidential elections.
     
  • Steel magnate Rinat Akhmetov , Ukraine's richest man, called for a mass peace rally in the east, accusing separatists of leading Ukraine towards "genocide." Akhmetov urged tens of thousands of his employees to lead the protests. A similar initiative last week led to ethnic Russian separatists losing control of Mariupol.
     
  • (Interfax Ukraine) According to Interfax Ukraine, a 20-minute Peace March protest was held in the Donbas-Arena stadium in central Donetsk without incident.
     
  • Ukrainian Colonel Yuriy Lebid, acting head of the Eastern Operative-Territorial Junction, was released after being abducted by separatists on May 15, according to the Ukrainian National Guard press service on Facebook.
     
  • The head of the Ukrainian Interior Ministry's Department for Mass Public Events said that over 75,000 personnel, including 55,700 policemen and more than 20,000 volunteers, will maintain public order in Ukraine for the May 25 presidential elections.

Diplomacy News

  • The European Commission paid out a first loan tranche of 100 million euros ($137 million) to Ukraine, launching a €1.6 billion euro macro-financial assistance loan program to prop up the beleaguered economy.

Governance News

  • (Interfax Ukraine) According to a poll conducted by the Institute of World Policies, 70 out of 80 surveyed political science experts included Poroshenko on a list of three people worthy of the title of "European president," with 54 of the respondents putting him in first place. The project was supported by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID).
  • (Interfax Ukraine) Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council Secretary Andriy Parubiy said that new methods of so-called "hybrid warfare" have shown that Ukraine's defense sector requires comprehensive reform, in which NATO is ready to help. The statement was issued after a meeting of the joint NATO-Ukraine working group on defense reform in Brussels. 

Daily Ukraine Crisis Updates – May 19, 2014

EWI offers a daily situation report on Ukraine.

Internal Security

  • (Interfax Ukraine) Ukrainian President Turchynov said that the Donetsk and Luhansk regions have effectively been left with no security or police forces. “The reform of the law enforcement system is not happening fast. For instance, the Donetsk and Luhansk regions are effectively left without the Security Service and police who are supposed to be prepared to fulfill their constitutional duties. All these systems need to be restored virtually from scratch.”

  • Ukraine’s Security Services stated that it had arrested individuals who were planning a terrorist attack in Odessa on May 18. 

  • One pro-Russian separatist was killed, one wounded, and an unspecified number were taken prisoner, including two Russian journalists, in clashes near Izium, Kharkiv Oblast, and Sloviansk and Kramatorsk in Donetsk from May 17-19, Ukrainian authorities said. 

  • (Interfax Ukraine) A separate system for protecting law and order will be put in place in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions during the upcoming presidential elections, Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatseniuk said.

  • A top Ukrainian Interior Ministry official said that 32 pro-Russia protesters who retreated inside Odessa’s Trade Unions building after clashes with pro-Ukraine activists and later died when the building was torched on May 2 might have been poisoned with chloroform.

  • The payment of pensions and public sector salaries in Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, cities in eastern Ukraine's Donetsk region, will be suspended because of attacks on banks, post offices and infrastructural facilities, the interior minister said.
     

Constitutional Reform

Diplomacy

Governance 

Mining Laws Passed

Afghanistan's new mining laws will set the stage for vital, regional economic growth. 

After two years of protracted deliberations in parliament, the Lower House (“Wolesi Jirga”) has finally adopted a series of new mining laws to provide a stronger legal framework for investment in Afghanistan’s mining sector. Among other provisions, the law enables corporate businesses, already investing in the exploration of Afghanistan’s natural resources, to bid for extraction. A subsequent addendum to the legislation requires 5 percent of mining revenues to be allocated for development projects in mining areas.  

The EastWest Institute welcomes the adoption of these laws as a significant achievement. The new legislation could not come at a more critical time—just a few weeks before the second round of presidential elections—as Afghanistan  prepares for a historical political transition, with potential consequences to regional security. In this time of uncertainty, EWI is about to release a new report, Afghanistan Reconnected: Regional Economic Security Beyond 2014—focusing on the country’s regional economic potential. This work has engaged leading private sector leaders, parliamentarians and governmental officials from Asia and beyond. EWI plans to launch the report officially on June 11, 2014, at the institute’s Brussels Center.

Ramazan Jumazada, MP from Afghanistan and member of EWI’s Parliamentarians Network for Conflict Prevention, says: “We do believe this will have a very significant impact on attracting domestic and foreign investment in Afghanistan. The mining sector is a very good alternative for Afghanistan’s sustainability and will help Afghanistan to reduce its dependency on foreign aid.”

The mining sector is Afghanistan’s largest medium and long term economic asset. Official sources have estimated $1 trillion in proven mineral resources and the potential for an additional $3 trillion. 

With the withdrawal of most foreign troops by the end of 2014 and the reduction of foreign aid, Afghanistan’s economy will have to become more self-sustaining and generate sufficient state revenue. To ensure this transition, Afghanistan must increase domestic and foreign investment in key industries, such as the mining sector. Developing Afghanistan’s mineral resources—including copper, iron ore, gold, oil and natural gas—will increase the potential for prosperity and economic growth. 

Daily Ukraine Crisis Updates – May 16, 2014

EWI offers a daily situation report on Ukraine.

Internal Security News

International Observation News

  • A UN report compiled by 34 observers on the ground cited cases of targeted killings, torture, beatings, abductions, and sexual harassment, as well as intimidation of the media in what it deemed an "alarming deterioration" of human rights in eastern Ukraine.
     
  • (RIA Novosti)The UN Assistant Secretary-General for Human Rights stated that 127 people have been killed in the anti-terrorist operation in southeastern Ukraine. A total of 250 people have died in clashes in Ukraine since November 2013.
     
  • (Interfax Ukraine) OSCE High Commissioner on National Minorities Astrid Thors visited Ukraine.
     
  • (ITAR-TASS) A senior diplomat with the Russian Foreign Minstry said that an OSCE report on Ukraine distorts the reality of the situation in Ukraine, ignoring the Kyiv government’s violations of human rights as well as the rise of neo-nationalist and xenophobic sentiments in the society.
     
  • (ITAR-TASS) The Russian Foreign Ministry’s criticism of the UN human rights report stated that its authors “somehow forgot to mention the termination of Ukraine in Crimea supply of fresh water - an action that violates a number of human rights."
     
  • (RIA Novosti) The Russian Foreign Ministry said that the authors of a United Nations report on Ukraine attempting to justify the punitive operation in the country were trying to “whitewash” the authorities in Kyiv.
     

Diplomacy News

Governance News

 

Daily Ukraine Crisis Updates – May 15, 2014

EWI offers a daily situation report on Ukraine.

Internal Security News

International Observation News

Constitutional Reform News

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Governance News

  • Ukrainian presidential candidate, leader of the Batkivschyna Party, and former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko suggested holding a referendum on the day of the presidential election that will include governance issues, foreign policy and NATO relations.

Daily Ukraine Crisis Updates – May 14, 2014

EWI offers a daily situation report on Ukraine.

Internal Security News

  • Six members of the Ukrainian armed forces were killed in a "terrorist attack" near Kramatorsk, the Ukrainian Defense Ministry said in a statement on its website.

Constitutional Reform News

Diplomacy News

  • (ITAR-TASS) Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry referred to the OSCE roadmap on crisis settlement as an “auxiliary instrument.” Prime Minister Yatsenyuk, speaking from Brussels, provided no direct answer as to whether or not he supports the roadmap. In his words, the settlement plan should be “purely Ukrainian.”
  • (ITAR-TASS) The European Commission and members appointed by the Verkhovna Rada Cabinet of Ministers agreed on the need to investigate  events that occurred in Odessa on May 2, when fighting between pro-Ukrainian and pro-Russian crowds culminated with a fire and the deaths of over 40 people.
  • German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier, speaking from Kiev, warned that the situation in eastern Ukraine is "still dangerous and threatening," and backed the interim government’s efforts to start a national dialogue. Steinmeier said the May 25 elections would play a "decisive role" in restoring calm to Ukraine and urged steps to disarm illegal separatist groups who have seized key buildings in the east.
  • A Ukrainian delegation headed by PM Yatsenyuk visited Brussels on May 13 to meet with the European Commission.

Governance News

  • (Interfax Ukraine) The Verkhovna Rada adopted four remaining bills to allow a transition to the implementation phase of an action plan that will simplify a joint visa regime with the EU.
  • (ITAR-TASS) Ukrainian aviation authorities banned local airlines from making regular and charter flights to a number of Russian regions in the North Caucasus, including Chechnya, Dagestan, Ingushetia, Kabardino-Balkaria, Karachay-Cherkessia and North Ossetia.
  • An inter-faction union of MPs called the Anti-Crisis Group was created in the Verkhovna Rada.

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