Politics and Governance

Daily Ukraine Crisis Updates – May 12, 2014

EWI offers a daily situation report on Ukraine.

Internal Security News

  • Ukraine's acting President and Parliament Speaker Oleksandr Turchynov said the situation in Mariupol has stabilized. Turchynov said the military operation in the eastern regions of the country continues, adding that "the situation is more or less stable in the northern part of the Luhansk region."
     
  • (RIA Novosti) The Ukrainian army began an artillery bombardment of the eastern city of Sloviansk following the referendum. Casualties were reported on May 12 following the shelling of a village near Sloviansk by Ukrainian troops. On May 11, the government in Kyiv announced the final phase of its “anti-terrorist” operation, with the Interior Ministry claiming to have razed roadblocks near Andreevka, as well as near other flashpoint cities in the southeast.
     
  • Self-proclaimed “People’s Governor” of Donetsk Pavel Gubarev accused Ukraine’s richest man, Rinat Akhmetov, of financing separatism in eastern Ukraine. Akhmetov denied the accusation. 
     

International Observation News

  • (Interfax Ukraine) OSCE Chairperson-in-Office and Swiss President Didier Burkhalter condemned the referendums held in Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine.
     
  • (ITAR-TASS) OSCE Chairman Didier Burkhalter said that the organization would send 1,000 observers to the Ukrainian presidential election on May 25; this represents the largest observation mission in the OSCE’s history. 
     
  • (Interfax Ukraine) The OSCE decided to appoint German Diplomat Wolfgang Ischinger as its negotiator on maintaining the dialogue in Ukraine.
     
  • German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President François Hollande stated that the OSCE should collect illegal weapons in Ukraine and observe the scheduled May 25 presidential election.
     
  • During a May 9 call with U.S. Secretary of State Kerry, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov called for urgent dialog, mediated by the OSCE, between Kiev and south-eastern regions of Ukraine.
     

Constitutional Reform News 

Diplomacy News

Governance News

Prominent U.S. and Chinese Party Officials Meet in D.C. and New Jersey

EWI holds 7th U.S.-China High-Level Political Party Leaders Dialogue.

As part of the ongoing U.S.-China High-Level Political Party Leaders Dialogue, organized by the EastWest Institute in partnership with the International Department of the Communist Party of China (CPC), a delegation of CPC senior officials met with U.S. Democratic and Republican Party leaders as well as current and former U.S. officials in Washington, D.C. and New Jersey on May 5-7, 2014.

The delegation, participating in the seventh U.S.-China High-Level Political Party Leaders Dialogue, was led by Wang Jiarui, vice chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference and the minister of the International Department of the CPC’s Central Committee (IDCPC). The U.S. delegation was headed by Edward G. Rendell, former general chair of the Democratic National Committee (DNC) and former governor of Pennsylvania, and Robert M. Duncan, former chairman of the Republican National Committee (RNC). The sitting party officers on the U.S. delegation included DNC Vice Chair and U.S. Representative Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI), DNC treasurer Andrew Tobias and RNC treasurer Anthony W. Parker.

Dialogue sessions highlighted the measures that the CPC has taken to implement the reform plan outlined last November at the Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee, as well as the upcoming U.S. midterm elections and their implications for the 2016 presidential elections. The delegates also discussed President Obama’s recent visit to Asia and the effects of U.S. and Chinese domestic politics on U.S.-China relations. In addition, the CPC delegation met with U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry in Washington, D.C., former U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger in New York and New Jersey Governor Chris Christie at the governor’s official residence in Princeton, New Jersey. The delegation also visited the headquarters of Johnson & Johnson in New Brunswick, New Jersey and discussed healthcare reform in the U.S. and China with the company’s senior executives.

The U.S.-China High-Level Political Party Leaders Dialogue seeks to build understanding and trust between political elites from the United States and China through an exchange of views on governance and foreign policy issues. Six previous rounds of dialogue have been held since its launch in 2010.

“The Dialogue bears great significance for a better mutual understanding of each other’s culture and governance structure. It also plays an irreplaceable role in promoting the state-to-state relations,” said the International Department of the Central Committee of the CPC in a press release on the event

English and Chinese media coverage of the event included:

Wang Jiarui attends and addresses the 7th China-US High-Level Leaders Dialogue in the U.S.,”
IDCPC, 5 May 2014

Governor Chris Christie Participates In EastWest Institute Party Official Dialogue,” State of New Jersey – Office of the Governor, 7 May 2014

Read the full event report here

Daily Ukraine Crisis Updates – May 9, 2014

EWI offers a daily situation report on Ukraine.

Internal Security News

  • At least 21 people died in clashes between Ukrainian forces and pro-Russian separatists in the eastern Ukrainian city of Mariupol (Donetsk), according to Interior Minister Arsen Avakov. Reports indicated that the police station was burnt to the ground, and a Ukrainian brigade commander was killed by a pro-Russian sniper. The police chief of Mariupol was abducted by militants.
     
  • More than 100 armed separatists surrounded the residence of government troops in Donetsk and fired some shots at the building, which holds 120 soldiers.
     
  • (ITAR-TASS) Russian media quoted the leader of the Donetsk People’s Republic as claiming Ukrainian troops “opened fire on civilians” in Mariupol.
     
  • Chemical factories Stirol and Azot, based in Ukraine’s two eastern oblasts, where Kremlin-backed separatist violence is high, said that they would temporarily suspend production until the situatlon settles down.

International Observation News

  • (ITAR-TASS) The Russian Foreign Ministry alleged that Kiev has essentially jeopardized the OSCE efforts to launch an inclusive dialogue in Ukraine.

Diplomacy News

  • Russian President Putin made his first visit to Crimea since the region’s annexation, arriving to take part in Victory Day celebrations. Putin hailed the return of Crimea to Russia as the restoration of "historic justice". The government in Kiev called the visit a “gross violation of Ukraine’s sovereignty.
     
  • Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin took part in ceremonies in Moldova's breakaway region of Transdniestr to mark the anniversary of the end of World War II. Rogozin, the Russian president's special representative for Transdniestr, said that Russia would do everything possible to guarantee the security of the self-declared republic.
     
  • (ITAR-TASS) Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry had a telephone call in which Lavrov urged the U.S. to influence Kiev authorities by encouraging them to de-escalate the situation and create conditions for direct and equal dialogue with representatives of the southeastern regions.
  • (RIA Novosti) Putin’s visit was met with criticism from world leaders, including the White Hosue and NATO Secretary General Rasmussen, who called it "inappropriate," adding: "we consider the Russian annexation of Crimea to be illegal, illegitimate and we don't recognize it."
     
  • (Interfax Ukraine) EU foreign ministers will consider the issue of expanding criteria for a second phase of sanctions against those who are involved in confiscating Ukrainian property in Crimea, a high-ranking European diplomat said.
     
  • French President Francois Hollande arrived in Germany for two days of talks with Chancellor Angela Merkel, during which the Ukraine crisis will figure prominently.
     
  • (ITAR-TASS) A poll conducted by the Pew Research Center concluded that 83% of Russian citizens are confident that President Putin is doing the right thing in world affairs.
     
  • Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk said he suspects Moscow is planning some form of "skirmish" to discredit Kiev when the country celebrates Victory Day, based on Putin’s remarks.

Governance News

  • (Interfax Ukraine) President Turchynov and PM Yatsenyuk issued a joint statement announcing that Ukrainian leadership is initiating all-Ukrainian national unity roundtables with the participation of political forces from all regions, as well as public and scientific circles.
     
  • (ITAR-TASS) The Ukrainian Prosecutor General's Office opened a case against two deputies of the Verkhovna Rada under suspicion of "rigged vote counting" during the plenary session of Parliament on January 16.
     
  • (ITAR-TASS) The U.S. expressed its support for the Ukrainian national unity roundtable initiative.
     
  • The governor appointed by the "Donetsk People's Republic," Denis Pushilin, predicted a "good result" for the May 11 secession referendum.

Gady: It's China's Turn to De-Escalate Cyber Tensions

EWI Senior Fellow Franz-Stefan Gady writes on steps needed to break the U.S.-China cyber stalemate, including a recommendation that China "remove the veils covering its activities in cyberspace."

Read the piece here on China-U.S. Focus

Both China and the United States have a vested interest in de-escalating tensions in cyberspace. In the post-Snowden world, the United States has lost its self-conferred leadership role in promoting global Internet freedom, whereas China is seen as recklessly expanding its cyber espionage activities.  Within only a year the fluctuant pendulum of world opinion has decisively swung back and forth between the two nations until finally reaching equilibrium that may be interpreted as a “cyber stalemate”. 

The public outcry after the revelations of the 2013 Mandiant Report with its exposure of the Chinese military unit labeled “Advanced Persistent Threat 1,” and its alleged cyber espionage activities, yielded, based on the disclosures of Edward Snowden, to privacy fears of an all-intrusive NSA in the last few months. However, rather than perceiving it as a serious setback, the current cyber stalemate between the United States and the People’s Republic of China should be seized by political leaders in both countries as an urgent incentive to push for cooperation and strategic stability in cyberspace. In that respect the United States has recently taken the lead. 

The Obama administration’s briefing for the Chinese military leadership on the US military doctrine for defending against cyber attacks was an unprecedented step towards strategic stability in cyberspace. The US military is envisioning to spend USD 26 billion in the next five years on protecting its networks from intrusions, but also to continue to develop offensive cyber weapons. This naturally leads to uneasiness in the technologically inferior PLA as well as among the Chinese political leadership, which threatens to further destabilize an already precarious relationship. While the Pentagon is disappointed that the Chinese have so far not reciprocated its openness, indications from the briefing suggest that the U.S. military has finally come around to actively seek strategic stability in cyberspace through some form of cyber deterrence. 

One way to increase the deterrence factor vis-à-vis adversaries is to have a more systematic public display of nation states' cyber war capabilities. In the past, the media has been used to convey a country's cyber warfare capabilities with strategic leaks of classified information (e.g. Operation Olympic Games) to some news outlet as part of a country's unofficial cyber deterrence strategy. Now, the United States has taken a more direct, nuanced and official approach by outlining its military doctrine without, presumably, detailing the capabilities of U.S. offensive cyber weaponry. The Pentagon presentation made it easier for the Chinese leadership to discern the infamous “red line” for the United States regarding Chinese cyber attacks and improved the signaling mechanisms between the two countries. 

Another sign for the willingness towards de-escalation is the recent announcement by the Obama White House that the NSA will more openly share intelligence on zero-day vulnerabilities—security holes in software that are unknown to the vendor and are exploited by hackers before they can get fixed. There is a loophole of course: the NSA can still withhold information in case of a “clear national security or law enforcement need.” Yet, as a spokeswoman for the US National Security Council states:  “This process is biased toward responsibly disclosing such vulnerabilities.” 

This is almost certainly part of a carefully planned publicity campaign, and it is primarily meant to assuage the U.S. private sector, which, more than ever, is vulnerable to losing global market shares to foreign competition after the revelations of its tacit cooperation with US intelligence agencies. Nevertheless, the zero-day vulnerability announcement is also a clear signal to U.S. adversaries that the United States is interested in stabilizing cyberspace by its willingness to “unilaterally disarm”, parts of its cyber arsenal.   

Technological inferiority is still a grave concern to Chinese top military brass. As Major General Wu Jiangxing, president of the PLA Information Engineering University, stated in an interview: “The gap is that China does not have a cyber army, whereas the United States has established a Cyber Command, certainly with cyber warfare units.” This refrain, heard time and again from the Chinese side, however, has so far not yielded any diplomatic benefits.  The U.S. offer on quasi-unilateral disarmament (or at least the discussion thereof) may be a first step in mollifying corresponding Chinese fears. 

However, despite the recent emphasis by senior Chinese leadership on cyber security, the reaction by the Chinese government has so far been tepid and no discernible reciprocal steps have been taken by, for example, the People’s Liberation Army. On the contrary, as the 2014 Mandiant Report states:  

The Chinese government is expanding the scope of its cyber operations, and China-based advanced threat actors are keen to acquire data about how businesses operate—not just about how they make their product . . . Despite the recent accusations and subsequent international attention, APT1 and APT12’s reactions indicate a PRC interest in both obscuring and continuing its data theft. This suggests the PRC believes the benefits of its cyber espionage campaigns outweigh the potential costs of an international backlash. 

It is now China’s turn to remove some of the veils covering its activities in cyberspace in order to de-escalate tensions. While there is an inherent asymmetry between U.S. and Chinese military capabilities in related technology, this should not be used as an excuse by the Chinese leadership to avoid a more open engagement with the United States in the coming months and try to break the cyber stalemate between the two rivals. 

Photo Credit: U.S. Secretary of Defense via Flickr

Daily Ukraine Crisis Updates – May 8, 2014

EWI offers a daily situation report on Ukraine.

International Security News: 

  • Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council Secretary Andriy Parubiy announced that anti-terrorist operations in the east will continue regardless of any decision made by representatives of the "Donetsk People's Republic" concerning their referendum, set for May 11.

 

  • (Interfax Ukraine) Ukrainian media reported that the representative of Svoboda Party leader and presidential candidate Oleh Tiahnybok was kidnapped by armed men from his home in Makiyivka (Donetsk). 

 

  • (Interfax Ukraine) The body of Valeriy Salo, the head of Donetsk’s Prosvita All-Ukrainian Society branch, was found in a burned car in Luhansk. Salo had been kidnapped by armed representatives of the ‘Donetsk People’s Republic’. 

 

 

 

  • (Interfax Ukraine) Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council Secretary Andriy Parubiy said that gunmen attacked a border unit between the Luhansk and Donetsk regions.

Internal Observation News: 

  • (ITAR-TASS) Lamberto Zannier, Secretary General of the OSCE, arrived in Kiev for meetings with Ukrainian government representatives. 

 

  • (Interfax Ukraine) Ukraine received a roadmap from the Swiss chairmanship of the OSCE on resolving its crisis. Ukrainian leaders are reviewing the document before providing a response. 

 

 

 

 

Constitutional Reform News: 

Diplomacy News: 

 

 

  • (Interfax Ukraine) Ukrainian PM Yatsenyuk expressed surprise that the Ukrainian crisis was actively discussed at a meeting between the presidents of Russia and Switzerland, without representatives of Ukraine, the U.S., or the EU.

 

  • (RIA Novosti) Russian strategic offensive and defensive forces are prepared and proficient, President Putin said after overseeing a routine drill of the country’s armed forces.

 

  • (RIA Novosti) Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko suggested to Russian President Vladimir Putin that the two countries could coordinate joint activities.

 

 

 

  • (RIA Novosti) President Putin convened an urgent meeting with the country's security council to discuss Ukraine in the context of his talk with OSCE Chairman Burkhalter. 

 

  • (ITAR-TASS) President Putin cited “irresponsible policy” as the main reason for the Ukraine crisis, stating that as a result, hundreds of thousands of people are unable to live a peaceful and prosperous life.

 

Governance New: 

 

 

 

 

 

  • (RIA Novosti) Pro-Russian activists in the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic said they are open for talks with Kiev, but fear the regime will deceive them.

 

  • The press service of national joint-stock company Naftogaz Ukrainy announced that a delegation of the European Commission visited Kiev in late April to discuss reform plans, efforts to fully integrate with the European energy market, and the start of accumulating natural gas stocks at Ukrainian underground storage facilities.

 

 

 

Daily Ukraine Crisis Updates – May 7, 2014

EWI offers a daily situation report on Ukraine.

Internal Security News

International Observation News

Constitutional Reform News

  • (Interfax Ukraine) Members of the Ukrainian Cabinet of Ministers will hold negotiations with representatives of the Kharkiv region on Wednesday to discuss constitutional reform in Kharkiv, Ukraine's foreign minister Andriy Deschytsia said.

Diplomacy News

  • Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Russia has withdrawn forces from its border with Ukraine, where NATO said there were approximately 40,000 Russian troops positioned. However, a NATO military official subsequently stated that NATO has no indication that Russia has withdrawn its forces from close to the Ukraine border despite Russian President Vladimir Putin's assertion that they had returned to their training areas.
     
  • U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Victoria Nuland said that should the Donetsk and Luhansk separatist referendum occur, and Russia follows up with recognition and deployment of forces, the actions will trigger sanctions on Russian’s finance, energy and defense sectors.
     
  • (RIA Novosti) The Russian Foreign Ministry issued a statement urging Kiev's government to stop what it alleges to be human rights violations. “The condemnation by the high-ranking official from the UN’s Human Rights body, violence and tyranny in Ukraine confirms that the illegitimate Kiev authorities under the cover of their Western patrons are continuing gross violations of conventional legal norms,” the statement said.
     
  • European Council President Van Rompuy said that the EU is open to holding more talks with Ukraine, Russia and the U.S. to try to defuse the Ukraine crisis.
     
  • Russia suspended a 2001 agreement on mutual military inspections with Lithuania amid growing worries in the Baltic region over Moscow's assertiveness in Ukraine.
     
  • A spokeswoman for German Chancellor Merkel’s office stated that Germany is involved in international efforts to stop an escalation of the Ukraine crisis and plan a follow-up process to April’s Geneva agreement.
     
  • Prime Minister of Japan Shinzo Abe said that Japan will send ten observers to help oversee Ukraine’s presidential elections scheduled for May 25.
     
  • The United Kingdom will pressure Russia into fulfilling the Geneva commitments, British Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs William Hague said at a press conference in Kiev.

Governance News

Daily Ukraine Crisis Updates – May 6, 2014

EWI offers a daily situation report on Ukraine.

Internal Security News

  • Donetsk authorities reported 8 dead and 16 injured in Sloviansk.
     
  • 24 individuals remained hostages in Donetsk.
     
  • (ITAR-TASS) Russian media reported that 48 people remained unaccounted for following an Odessa fire on May 2. Additionally, approximately 20 bodies remained unidentified out of the 46 recovered.
     
  • Militants imposed a curfew in Konstantinovka (Donetsk), and reportedly refused entry to vehicles. A similar curfew was in place in Sloviansk where heavy fighting took place.
     
  • (Interfax Ukraine) Ukraine’s State Aviation Service temporarily closed the Donetsk airport, before abolishing the resolution to suspend flights later in the day.
     
  • (Interfax Ukraine) The Verkhovna Rada supported assigning combatant status to people involved in eastern Ukraine’s anti-terrorist operations.
     
  • Speaking to journalists in the Verkhovna Rada, billionaire presidential candidate Petro Poroshenko said there was evidence that toxic chemicals were used in the Odessa fire.

International Observation News

  • UN Under-Secretary General for Political Affairs Jeffry Feltman is scheduled to visit Ukraine from May 7-8. According to the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry, the visit was initiated by UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon to assist with a diplomatic settlement.
     
  • (RIA Novosti) A senior Russian diplomat called on UN officials to be as impartial as possible while assessing ongoing events in Ukraine, the Russian Foreign Ministry said.
     
  • (ITAR-TASS) Russian President Vladimir Putin is slated to discuss the Ukrainian crisis with Swiss President Didier Burkhalter, current Chairman-in-Office of the OSCE, on May 7.

Constitutional Reform News

  • (Interfax Ukraine) The Verkhovna Rada did not back the idea of holding a referendum on decentralization on May 25. The decision resulted from a closed-door session. "It needs to be held, but not during a war…. a referendum cannot be held at a gunpoint," parliamentarian Oleksandr Bryhynets wrote on Facebook.
     
  • (Interfax Ukraine) The Verkhovna Rada will hold the first vote on a bill amending the Ukrainian constitution in May, and the bill should be adopted by October or November, Deputy Prime Minister Volodymyr Hroisman told journalists.

Diplomacy News

  • Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov ruled out holding fresh talks in Geneva to defuse the crisis, unless pro-Russian opposition groups are involved.
     
  • The Russian Foreign Ministry released its White Book on Violations of Human Rights and Rule of Law in Ukraine. The report was presented to President Putin and alleged “widespread and gross violations of human rights and freedoms on the part of the self-proclaimed government and its supporters.”
     
  • The Foreign Ministers of Ukraine and Russia were scheduled to meet in Vienna for a "working dinner" after a Council of Europe committee meeting on May 6.
     
  • (ITAR-TASS) Ukraine is willing to hold another round of Geneva talks “if Russia is ready to support elections and stop the threat,” said Ukrainian FM Andrei Deshchytsa.
     
  • (ITAR-TASS) European Council President Herman Van Rompuy ruled out military intervention in Ukraine, stating that the EU should "use other tools" to help resolve the crisis.
     
  • White House spokesman Jay Carney stated that the U.S. is prepared to escalate sanctions if necessary. “We have a wide range of tools available to us up to and including sectoral sanctions.  And should Russia take actions that we and our partners decide or view as meriting further escalation costs on Russia, then that's what we will do.  We will impose those costs.”
  • Foreign Minister Lavrov urged national dialogue in Ukraine as foreign ministers met in Vienna, Austria, in the latest international effort to rein in the spiraling crisis. Lavrov called on Kiev’s interim authorities to listen to opposition activists who want greater autonomy in Ukraine's south and east.

Governance News  

  • Foreign Minister Lavrov said it would be "unusual" to hold a presidential election in Ukraine while the army was being deployed against Ukrainians.
     
  • Ukrainian President Turchynov dismissed the Odessa governor in response to the fire and violence that took place there.
     
  • (RIA Novosti) The Party of Regions, Ukraine’s ruling party under ousted President Viktor Yanukovych, warned Kiev’s current authorities that Ukraine’s disintegration is becoming irreversible. The party, which draws most of its electoral support from rebel eastern and southeastern regions, laid the blame for mounting tensions on the “coup-imposed” government.

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