Drawing links to the Cold War, EWI's Professorial Fellow Greg Austin spoke with New Europe's Andy Carling about Ukraine, Crimea and how this crisis might develop in the future.
Click here to watch the full interview: New Europe
The EastWest Institute hosted a discussion with Major General Gordon “Skip” Davis, deputy chief of staff, operations and intelligence for NATO on April 2 at its New York center.
Speaking to an audience of foreign policy and intelligence professionals, as well as global investors, Major General (MG) Davis addressed NATO’s response to the Ukraine crisis and the changing dynamic of NATO-Russia relations in recent months. MG Davis stressed the importance of fulfilling commitments to NATO partners such as Ukraine, in addition to its formal members, and in distinguishing the difference between “security partnerships versus a defense alliance.” Recent developments confirm Russia’s role as a competitor or challenger to NATO, rather than a strategic partner, and as such, the Trans-Atlantic community must conduct a joint threat assessment to re-think the implications of Russian actions and policy with respect to deterrence and defense.
NATO members must also revisit the assumption that eastern and southeastern expansion is a stabilizing force for international security, MG Davis explained. As reflected in Putin’s Kremlin speech on March 18, Russia’s worldview is fundamentally divergent from U.S. and European interests and deeply influenced by its historical context. With this in mind, MG Davis assessed that Russian grand actions—such as its annexation of Crimea—may not necessarily reflect a grand strategy. These actions could just as likely be driven by perceptions of opportunity or even narrow interests.
Both the U.S. and NATO must also face the reality of budgetary constraints and reduced defense spending. A review of threats to NATO’s collective defense may very well lead to capability adjustments in key areas, and in the near term, has already lead to a need to review defense plans, force posture and exercises. Looking forward, MG Davis expressed measured optimism, recognizing the need to execute well-prepared plans that reflect a new security environment and emerging challenges NATO faces in 21st century geopolitics.
EWI offers a daily situation report on Ukraine's unfolding crisis, featuring key developments and links to analytical pieces from foreign policy experts around the world.
James G. Neuger, “NATO Condemns Russia’s ‘Propaganda’ as Lavrov Cries Foul,” Bloomberg Businessweek, 4 April 2014
Mark Silva, “Obama’s Russian Reset Lost in Putin’s Translations,” Bloomberg Businessweek, 4 April 2014
Thomas Grove, “Russia recalls military representative in rebuke to NATO,” Reuters, 3 April 2014
Simon Shuster, “Ukraine and Russia Demonize Each Other With Claims of Terrorism,” Time, 3 April 2014
“Kiev Ignored Independent Sniper Case Assessment – Lavrov,” RIA Novosti, 4 April 2014
Natalia Zinets, Richard Balmforth and Paul Ingrassia, “Ukraine PM says will stick to austerity despite Moscow pressure,” Chicago Tribune, 4 April 2014
Agence France-Press, “Ukraine eyes coal after Russian gas price hike,” GlobalPost, 4 April 2014
Kathy Lally, “Pro-Russian protests diminish in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk region,” The Washington Post, 3 April 2014
Kenneth Rapoza, “Russia Helped Ukraine, But Now Ukraine Needs More, IMF's Lagarde Says,” Forbes, 3 April 2014
“EU must be ready with Russia sanctions over Ukraine: UK,” Reuters, 4 April 2014.
Fyodor Lukyanov, “Does Russia need America?,” Russia Beyond the Headlines, 4 April 2014
Sir Rodric Braithwaite, “Is the crisis in Ukraine a plum ripe for picking?,” Russia Beyond the Politics, 3 April 2014
EWI offers a daily situation report on Ukraine's unfolding crisis, featuring key developments and links to analytical pieces from foreign policy experts around the world.
Alexei Anishchuk, “Russian Diplomat: US Should ‘Practice Yoga, Stick to Food-Combining Diets,’ And Forget Crimea’s Annexation”, Business Insider, 4/3/14
Michelle Arrouas, “NATO Chief Says Russia Could Attack Ukraine Without Warning”, Time, 4/3/14
C.J. Chivers and David M. Herszenhorn, “In Crimea, Russia Showcases a Rebooted Army”, The New York Times, 4/2/14
Vladimir Soldatkin, “Russia Hikes Gas Prices for Ukraine by 80 Percent”, Reuters, 4/3/14
Tom Cohen, “Is Crimea gone? Annexation No Longer the Focus of Ukraine Crisis”, CNN, 4/1/14
Andrew Roth, “Ukraine Moves to Disarm Paramilitary Groups”, The New York Times, 4/1/14
EWI offers a daily situation report on Ukraine's unfolding crisis, featuring key developments and links to analytical pieces from foreign policy experts around the world.
John Kerry, “Press Availability at NATO,” U.S. Department of State, 1 April 2014
“NATO takes measures to reinforce collective defence, agrees on support for Ukraine,” NATO, 1 April 2014
Carol Kriel and Vladimir Isachenkov, “AP Interview: Yanuykovych Hopes for Crimea’s Return,” Associated Press, 2 April 2014
“Russia steps up pressure on Ukraine to disarm far-right,” Reuters, 2 April 2014
David Frum, “Russia’s Plans to Partition Ukraine,” The Atlantic, 2 April 2014
“Ukraine Constitution reform unlikely without teamwork with society – Russian FM,” ITAR-TASS, 2 April 2014
Rajan Menon, “Why the Ukraine Crisis Won’t Save NATO,” The National Interest, 1 April 2014
Robert Farley, “No, F-22s Can’t Save Ukraine,” Medium – War is Boring, 1 April 2014
Adrian Croft, “Russia could achieve Ukraine incursion in 3-5 days: NATO general,” Reuters, 1 April 2014
Michael R. Gordon, “NATO to Firm Up Its Presence in Eastern Europe as It Halts Cooperation with Russia,” The New York Times, 1 April 2014
Andrew E. Kramer, “Russia Tightens Pressure on Ukraine with Rise in Natural Gas Price,” The New York Times, 1 April 2014
Tom Cohen, “Is Crimea Gone? Annexation no longer the focus of Ukraine crisis,” CNN, 1 April 2014
Agnes Lovasz, “Dashed Ikea Dreams Show Decades Lost to Bribery in Ukraine,” Bloomberg, 31 March 2014
Alexander Kliment, “Putin’s Fairy Tale: Why Russia Will Try – and Fail – To Build a New Empire,” Foreign Affairs, 31 March 2014
Eugene Rumer, Andrew S. Weiss, Ulrich Speck, Lina Khatib, George Perkovich, and Douglas H. Paal, “What Are the Global Implications of the Ukraine Crisis?,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 27 March 2014
EWI offers a daily situation report on Ukraine's unfolding crisis, featuring key developments and links to analytical pieces from foreign policy experts around the world.
John Kerry, “Press Availability – Paris, France,” U.S. Department of State, March 30, 2014
“Readout of the President’s Call with President Putin,” The White House, March 28, 2014
“General Assembly Adopts Resolution Calling Upon States not to Recognize Changes in Status of Crimea Region – 100 Votes in Favour, 11 Against, 58 Abstentions for Text on Ukraine,” United Nations General Assembly, March 27, 2014
Paul Taylor, “Ten Ways the Ukraine Crisis May Change the World,” Reuters, March 31, 2014
Robert Spalding III, “America’s Secret Weapon to Stop Russia,” The National Interest, March 31, 2014
BBC, “Ukraine angered by Russia PM Medvedev’s visit to Crimea,” BBC News, March 31, 2014
Brad Knickerbocker, “Putin, Obama maneuver over crisis in Ukraine. Whose advantage?,” The Cristian Science Monitor, March 30, 2014
Anne Gearan, “Kerry, Russia’s Lavrov Fail to Reach Deal Over Ukraine, Say They Will Keep Talking,” The Washington Post, March 30, 2014
Nick Gass, “Russian Ambassador Says ‘Crimea is a Part’ of Russia,” Politico, March 30, 2014
Simon Tisdall and Rory Carroll, “Russia Sets Terms for Ukraine Deal as 40,000 Troops Mass on Border,” The Guardian, March 30, 2014
Andrew E. Kramer, “Ukraine’s Hopes Riding on Chocolatier,” The New York Times, March 29, 2014
Louis Charbonneau, “Russia Threatened Countries Ahead of UN Vote on Ukraine–Envoys,” Reuters, March 28, 2014
Jonathan Weisman, “Kremlin Finds a Defender in Congress,” The New York Times, March 28, 2014
Jonathan Marcus, “Analysis: Could Russia Absorb Eastern Ukraine?,” BBC News, March 28, 2014
James Traub, “The Enemy We’ve Been Waiting For,” Foreign Policy, March 27, 2014
Nate Jones, “Vladimir Channels the Gipper,” Foreign Policy, March 27, 2014
Clifford Krauss, “Potential Crackdown on Russia Risks Also Punishing Western Oil Companies,” The New York Times, March 27, 2014
BBC, "Vladimir Putin: The Rebuilding of ‘Soviet’ Russia,” BBC News, March 27, 2014
EWI offers a daily situation report on Ukraine's unfolding crisis, featuring key developments and links to analytical pieces from foreign policy experts around the world.
“Full Transcript: President Obama Gives Speech Addressing Europe, Russia on March 26,” The Washington Post, 26 March 2014
Ian Bremmer, “A Tortured Policy Toward Russia” (Op-Ed), The New York Times, 26 March 2014
Natalia Zinets, “IMF Throws Ukraine Financial Lifeline, Russian Economy to Slump,” Reuters, 27 March 2014
Rumer et al, “What are the Global Implications of the Ukraine Crisis?” (Q&A), Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 27 March 2014
Robert Kahn, “Ukraine and IMF: Step Forward Now,” Council on Foreign Relations, 27 March 2014
The Economist, “America and the IMF: Dereliction of Duty,” The Economist, 29 March 2014 (print edition)
Ian Wallace, “Ukraine Crisis, Target Breach and Edward Snowden: What’s Next for U.S. Cyber Policy?” Brookings, 25 March 2014
James Surowiecki, “Putin’s Power Play,” The New Yorker, 24 March 2014
Writing for Foreign Policy, EWI board member Yousef Al Otaiba, UAE's Ambassador to the U.S., asserts the need for continued U.S. engagement in the Middle East. Despite the U.S. pivot towards Asia–and its focus on the current Ukraine crisis–there is a mutual interest in addressing regional security concerns and nurturing strong economic ties.
Read the full piece on Foreign Policy.
President Barack Obama heads to the Gulf this week at a time of major geopolitical turmoil, with events in Crimea and Russia dominating the headlines. None of this disorder is American-made, of course, and none will be solved by America on its own. But as the U.S. president will hear during his visit, American leadership is still as important to global stability and security as it ever was, and nowhere more than in the Middle East.
Recently, that leadership -- and the security partnerships that bolster it--have been tested and strained. Now facing ever more complex regional challenges from Egypt's transition to a potential nuclear deal with Iran, the president can use his meeting with Saudi King Abdullah this week to signal a new phase of engagement with Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and other regional allies of the United States.
"Those who used to chastise America for acting alone in the world cannot now stand by and wait for America to solve the world's problems alone. We have sought--in word and deed--a new era of engagement with the world," Obama said in his 2009 speech at the United Nations. We welcomed that sentiment then and embrace it as enthusiastically now.
So what should this engagement look like today? It starts with a strong U.S. reaffirmation of our shared vital interests in the Middle East. It is a long and difficult "to do" list that includes containing the Iranian nuclear threat, challenging extremism and fighting terrorism, stabilizing Egypt, ending the violence in Syria, advancing an Arab-Israeli peace, and protecting energy supplies and international shipping.
It also requires better communication. At a working level, there is a constant and productive rhythm of cabinet-level meetings and senior official visits. But relationships in the Middle East are built on personal contact, and maintaining a candid and vibrant dialogue with regular leader-to-leader contact is essential.
For our part, we understand that the path forward is close collaboration with the United States and other regional allies. A strong partnership is essential. In meeting shared threats, we will share the burden. Gulf defense capabilities have improved dramatically, and we are committed to investing even more. Gulf states have a range of sophisticated U.S.-made defense equipment on order; they are jointly deploying advanced missile defense systems; and our militaries continue to train and operate closely together.
In the United Arab Emirates (UAE), we know also that a security partnership can only be strengthened by constant interaction. The UAE has proved its value and commitment both on and off the battlefield, alongside the United States. As a five-time participant in multinational peacekeeping coalitions, we have been fighting together for more than 12 years in Afghanistan, and in Libya we conducted joint air missions. Ongoing UAE-U.S. intelligence cooperation has disrupted illicit money and arms flows. And joint naval and air operations maintain freedom of navigation in the Gulf.
U.S. relationships in the Middle East, of course, are rooted in more than just shared security interests. There are ever stronger cultural and commercial ties. In 2013, Gulf states imported more than $50 billion in U.S. goods and services, and they have hundreds of billions of dollars invested in America. U.S. universities and cultural and medical institutions such as New York University, the Cleveland Clinic, and the Guggenheim have outposts throughout the region. And tens of thousands of our students are attending colleges throughout the United States.
In short, there is a lot that binds us together. And we have to continue to count on each other to meet the challenges and opportunities ahead in what is still the most dangerous of neighborhoods. As friends and allies, we may not agree on every issue or every tactic, but there are urgent initiatives that we can work on together that set the stage now for more positive developments later. These include: cooperating on an economic stabilization plan for Egypt, shutting down money flows to the extremist opposition in Syria, building governance capacity in Libya, and joint planning for the "day after" the Iran talks conclude -- deal or no deal.
When Obama visits, the president will be reminded that in the Gulf we still see the United States as an irreplaceable pillar of regional security. With unsteady neighbors, expansionist dreamers, and violent nonstate actors all around us, we cannot go it alone. We need friends; and no friend is more important to us than Washington.
In turn, the United States should know that we are eager and willing to contribute to our collective security interests. While the talk out of Washington continues about a "pivot to Asia," U.S. energy independence, and new budget priorities, very few in the Middle East truly believe the U.S. commitment is waning. Even so, it is important for the president to reaffirm America's sustained commitment to the region during his visit.
Yet we are realistic--all partnerships must adapt with the times. But we also know that the vital interests that connect us--the threat of aggression and terrorism, the benefits of trade and commerce, the values of peace and moderation--remain as strong today as ever before.
EWI offers a daily situation report on Ukraine's unfolding crisis, featuring key developments and links to analytical pieces from foreign policy experts around the world.
“Transcript: Obama addresses NATO strength at March 26 news conference in Brussels:”
Carol E. Lee and Matthew Dalton, “U.S., EU Aim to Cut Europe's Reliance on Russian Energy,” The Wall Street Journal, 26 March 2014.
Daryna Krasnolutska, “Ukraine Nears End of IMF Aid Talks as Obama Warns Russia,” Bloomberg, 26 March 2014.
Darya Korsunskaya, “Crimea Only a Temporary Distraction from Russia's Economic Woes, Expert Says,” Reuters, 26 March 2014.
Mike Dorning and Julianna Goldman, “Obama Deflecting Criticism Calls Russia a Regional Power,” BloombergBusinessweek, 26 March 2014.
Associated Press, “Congress on Track to Pass Ukraine Aid Bill,” The Washington Post, 26 March 2014.
Ayesha Rascoe, “U.S. lawmakers mull speedier gas exports to help Ukraine, Europe,” Reuters, 25 March 2014.
Luke Harding, “Shooting of Far-Right Leader Threatens to Raise Tensions in Ukraine,” The Guardian, 25 March 2014.
Peter Spiegel and Neil Buckley, “IMF Rushes through $15bn Ukraine Bailout,” Financial Times, 26 March 2014.
Reuters, “China Says Supports International Financial Aid for Ukraine,” Reuters, 26 March 2014
Anne-Marie Slaughter, “The War of Words over Ukraine Plays into Putin’s Hands,” The Washington Post, 25 March.
Michael A. Levi and David M. Rubenstein, “Hot Air About American Gas Will Not Scare Putin,” Council on Foreign Relations, 25 March 2014.
