Key Developments

• President Vladimir Putin has signed a draft treaty that would incorporate Crimea into the Russian Federation. Crimean Prime Minister Sergei Aksyonov and Speaker Vladimir Konstantinov of the Crimean Parliament were both present for the signing at the Kremlin.

• Putin declared that “Crimea has always been an integral part of Russia in the hearts and minds of people.”  Putin goes on to state that Russia does not want to partition Ukraine: “We are one people. We simply cannot exist without one another.”

• In a conciliatory speech delivered in Russian, Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk sought to reassure his country’s ethnic Russian population and Russia by pledging that Ukraine would not join NATO.

• A Twitter statement released by the Ukrainian government stated that Ukraine would never recognize Crimea’s new status.

• Legislation has been formally submitted to the Russian parliament to begin the process of annexation of Crimea and officially reverse a 60-year old decision made by the Soviet Union that transferred Crimea to Ukraine.

• In a press conference yesterday, President Obama expressed support for Ukraine and declared that the U.S. “stands with the people of Ukraine and their right to determine their own destiny.”

• William Hague, the British foreign secretary has condemned Russia’s actions as a “flagrant disregard of Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.”

• A statement released yesterday by the Foreign Ministers of the EU condemned the Crimean referendum and its outcome as illegal under the Ukrainian constitution and warned of further economic consequences if there are “any further steps by the Russian Federation to destabilize the situation in Ukraine.”

• Vice President Joe Biden has arrived in Warsaw for two days of meetings with the leaders of Poland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.  Biden’s trip is meant to reassure these eastern European countries of America’s continued support and commitment to NATO.

• Speaking together with Prime Minister Donald Tusk of Poland, Vice President Biden characterized Russia’s moves as “nothing more than a land grab.”

• Prime Minister Tusk declared that continued NATO solidarity enable “sufficient and strong reactions to Russia’s aggression.”

• Targets of EU sanctions include the prime minister of Crimea, the chairman of the Commonwealth of Independent States, three Russian military commanders and senior officials in the Russian legislature.

• French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius has warned Russia that France could cancel the Russian purchase of French-built amphibious assault warships as part of the next round of European sanctions against Russia.

• In response to U.S. sanctions against him, Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin of Russia has posted a message on Twitter: “Comrade Barack Obama, what should do those who [sic] have neither accounts nor property abroad?”

• President Obama has spoken with Chancellor Merkel to continue coordinating the response to the Ukrainian situation.

• Concerned with increasing tensions, Swedish leaders, including Deputy Prime Minister Jan Björklund, are considering joining the NATO alliance and boosting military spending.

• The leader of the Moldovan breakaway region of Transnistria has urged Russia to annex the region.  Responding to this appeal, President Nicolae Timofti of Moldova has warned Russia against any move to annex Transnistria.  Transnistria seceded from Moldova in 1990 on fears that Moldova would merge with Romania.  A brief war was fought in 1992, after which Transnistria declared itself an independent state, but remains unrecognized in the international community.  Russia maintains a force of “peacekeepers” in the region.  In a 2006 referendum, 97.2% of vote was in favor of joining Russia.

• With the crisis ongoing, Crimea is feeling the financial costs of instability, as tourism from Ukraine and the West has largely dried up.

Government Statements

Barack Obama, “Statement by the President on Ukraine,” The White House, March 17, 2014

William Hague, “Foreign secretary condemns Russia’s recognition of Crimea as a ‘sovereign state’,” March 17, 2014

The White House, “Background Press Briefing by a Senior Administration Official on the Vice President’s Trip to Poland and Lithuania,” March 17, 2014

Council of the European Union, “Council conclusions on Ukraine,” March 17, 2014

Analytical Pieces

Daniel Woker, “Russia-Ukraine: Who can mediate?,” The Interpreter, March 18, 2014

Jan Techau, “Ukraine, the Birthplace of Strategic Europe?,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace – Strategic Europe, March 18, 2014

Gordon Adams, “Don’t Poke the Russian Bear,” Foreign Policy, March 17, 2014

Steven Pifer, “Helping Ukraine is Punishing Russia,” Reuters, March 17, 2014

Michael Hirsh, “A New ‘Cool War’ With Russia Is About To Begin,” National Journal, March 17, 2014

Stewart M. Patrick, “Crimea: Stop Citing International Law and Start Condemning Russian Expansionism,” Council on Foreign Relations – The Internationalist, March 17, 2014

Jochen Bittner, “Is Crimea the Next Yugoslavia?,” The New York Times, March 17, 2014

Charlemagne, “Putin untouched,” The Economist, March 17, 2014

Dimiter Kenarov, “Watching Gogol in Simferopol,” Foreign Policy, March 17, 2014

Dan Lamothe, “Bad Romance: France’s $1.7 Billion Warship Deal with Russia Gets New Scrutiny,” Foreign Policy, March 17, 2014

Loren Thompson, “Ukraine Crisis: Poland’s Air Defense Become A Pressing Concern for Washington,” Forbes, March 17, 2014

Yong Kwon, “The IMF, Ukraine, and the Asian Financial Crisis Hangover,” The Diplomat, March 17, 2014

Pankaj Mishra, “Putin’s Eurasian Fantasy,” Bloomberg View, March 17, 2014

Peter Beinart, “America is Too Broke to Rescue Ukraine,” The Atlantic, March 17, 2014
 

Video

“Putin Announces Crimea Annexation,” The New York Times, March 18, 2014

Key Developments

• Crimean voters overwhelming chose to secede from Ukraine in the March 16 referendum, and the Crimean parliament accordingly has declared independence and formally applied to join the Russian Federation.

• The announced results reported that 97% of voters supported becoming part of Russia.  As the poll was boycotted by the Crimean Tatars and many ethnic Ukrainians (roughly 13% and 25% of the Crimean population, respectively), the officially reported turnout of 83% of the population seems incongruous.

• On Saturday, March 15, Russia vetoed a UN Security Council resolution that would have declared the Crimean referendum illegal.  Aside from China’s abstention, all the other members of the Security Council voted in favor of the resolution.

• Following Sunday’s referendum, Ukraine has mobilized 40,000 of its reservists and diverted $680 million from its cash-strapped budget to improve military readiness.

• Russia has deployed thousands of soldiers to the Ukrainian border for a series of military exercises to take place over the next two weeks.

• A truce between Ukrainian and Russian troops has been negotiated in the Crimea.  The truce, which will last through March 21, permits the Ukrainian military to resupply their surrounded bases and reduces the possibility of an immediate confrontation.

• According to a statement released on Sunday by the Russian Foreign Ministry, over the course of two phone conversations on Saturday and Sunday, Kerry and Lavrov have agreed to seek Ukrainian constitutional reforms to resolve the crisis.  The U.S. has not confirmed the statement.

• President Obama spoke with President Putin of Russia on Sunday, reiterating continued American opposition to the referendum as a violation of the Ukrainian constitution and sovereignty.  Obama went on to press Putin on the need for the de-escalation and a diplomatic resolution to the crisis.

• After condemning the referendum, both the U.S. and the EU have imposed sanctions, including travel bans and assets freezes, on Russian and Ukrainian leaders over Crimea’s move to join Russia.  Both the U.S. and the EU have warned that further sanctions may be imposed if the crisis remains unresolved.

• President Obama has issued an executive order targeting 11 individuals – seven Russians and four Ukrainians – including Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin, Crimean Prime Minister Sergey Aksyonov, former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich, Putin aides, Vladislav Surkov and Sergei Glazyev, Valentina Matviyenko, the head of the upper house of the Russian parliament, and Vladimir Konstantinov, the head of the Crimean parliament.  The executive order goes on to label Aksyonov and Konstantinov as separatists.

• The EU has announced sanctions targeting 21 individuals – thirteen Russians and eight Crimeans.  The names of these individuals were not immediately publicized, but do not include senior Russian leaders.

• In the largest demonstrations in nearly two years, as many as 50,000 protesters took part in a rally in Moscow to oppose the government’s intervention in Ukraine.

• Dmitry Kiselyov, the head of Rossiya Segodnya (Russia Today), the official Russian government owned news agency, and the host of a popular Russian Sunday television show has stirred Cold War fears by noting on the air that Russia is capable of turning the U.S. into radioactive dust.

• Several public NATO websites have been the targets of cyber-attacks purportedly perpetrated by pro-Russian hackers.

Government Statements

The White House, Fact Sheet: Ukraine-Related Sanctions,” March 17, 2014

The White House, Readout of the President’s Call with President Putin,” March 16, 2014

Jay Carney, “Statement by the Press Secretary on Ukraine,” The White House, March 16, 2014

Analytical Pieces

Dmitri Trenin, “Crimea’s Choice,” The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace – Eurasia Outlook, March 17, 2014

Sergei Aleksashenko, “The Day After: Is It Technically Difficult to Annex Crimea?,” The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace – Eurasia Outlook, March 17, 2014

Mike Callaghan, “Is the IMF a political football in the Ukraine crisis?,” The Interpreter, March 17, 2014

Council on Foreign Relations, Interview of John B. Bellinger III: Why the Crimean Referendum is Illegitimate,” March 16, 2014

Paul Pillar, “Ukraine and the Zero-Sum Impulse,” The National Interest, March 16, 2014

Thomas L. Friedman, “The Three Faces of President Obama,” The New York Times, March 16, 2014

Graham Allison, “A ‘Belgian Solution’ for Ukraine?,” The National Interest, March 15, 2014

Colum Lynch, “Russia Vetoes Last-Ditch U.N. Effort to Prevent Crimea Annexation,” The Cable- Foreign Policy, March 15, 2014

Andrew S. Bowen, “Chicken Kiev: Will Russia risk an all-out invasion of Ukraine?,” Foreign Policy, March 15, 2014

Peter Liberman and Julie A. George, “Will Conquest Pay?: In Crimea, Russia Might Come Out Ahead,” Foreign Affairs, March 14, 2014

John McCain, “Obama Has Made America Look Weak,” The New York Times, March 14, 2014

Taras Kuzio, “Farewell, Crimea: Why Ukrainians Don’t Mind Losing the Territory to Russia,” Foreign Affairs, March 13, 2014

Fareed Zakaria, “Why (this time) Obama Must Lead,” The Washington Post, March 13, 2014
 

Key Developments

• US Secretary of State John Kerry met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in London on Friday for six hours. Lavrov stated that Russia will "respect the will of the people of Crimea.” After the meeting, Lavrov called the talks “constructive” but stated that Russia and the U.S. did “not have a common vision” on the situation in Ukraine.
   
• Hundreds of pro-Russian and Kiev supporters clashed last night in the east Ukraine city of Donetsk in the worst display of violence since Ukraine President Viktor Yanukovych was ousted on  February 22. One person died in the violence, and several people were injured.
   
• On Friday morning, trucks, troops and at least one armored personnel carrier (APC) were unloaded from a Russian warship, the Yamal 156, at Kazachaya Bay near Sevastopol in Crimea. The large landing ship can carry more than 300 troops and up to a dozen APCs.
   
• Senior U.S. officials report that Ukraine's interim government has appealed to the U.S. for military aid, including arms, ammunition and intelligence support. Wary of aggravating tensions with Russia, the Obama administration has agreed to send only military rations at this time.
   
• Russia's ambassador to the United Nations, Vitaly Churkin, told an emergency meeting of the Security Council that Moscow "does not want war" with Ukraine, as a direct response to a question posed by Ukraine's interim Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk.
   
• A draft resolution has been circulated in the UN Security Council concerning the referendum in Crimea, planned for Sunday. Sponsored by the U.S., the resolution would declare the referendum illegal. According to council diplomats, Russia has pledged to veto the resolution.
   
• The U.S. aid package to Ukraine stalled in the Senate on Thursday because of Republican opposition to the bill. In addition to opposing the IMF reforms tied to the aid package, some opponents, such as  Senator Rand Paul (KY), also stated that the aid would indirectly benefit Russia because of the billions of dollars of debt Ukraine owes Russia. Some Republicans, however, support the bill, with Senator John McCain (AZ) harshly criticizing those in his party for their opposition to the proposed legislation. The bill will be taken up again when Congress reconvenes on March 24.
   
• Eight U.S. Senators, led by Senator John McCain (R-AZ), will travel to Ukraine this weekend to meet with the interim government.
   
• Leonid Kravchuk, Ukraine's first president (1991-1994), earlier this month denounced Russia's invasion of Ukraine, stating that Russia has violated the Budapest Memorandum and that “Ukraine has every reason to go to international arbitration." Kravchuk vowed that he and every Ukrainian citizen would take up arms to fight for their homeland against Russian aggression.

Government Statements

Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk addressed the UN Security Council on March 13 at its sixth urgent meeting on the crisis in Ukraine

Press Briefing by U.S. Press Secretary Jay Carney, 3/13/2014

Analytical Pieces

The Editorial Board, “Fixing Ukraine’s Economy,” The New York Times, March 13, 2014. 

Wei Zongyou, “Ukraine Crisis: Can China Be More Helpful?,” The Diplomat, March 14, 2014.

Jamila Trindle, “Cutting off your Nose,” Foreign Policy, March 13, 2014. 

Alexander Motyl, “Why Ukraine Should Risk it All,” Foreign Policy, March 14, 2014. 

Susan B. Glasser, “Putin on the Couch,” Politico, March 14, 2014.

Robert Kahn, “Sanctions: What’s Next?,” Council on Foreign Relations, March 13, 2014.

John J. Mearsheimer, “Getting Ukraine Wrong,” The New York Times, March 13, 2014. 

Video

Ukraine's PM appeals to U.N. over Crimea (1:43)

Key Developments

• In a phone call on March 12, Didier Burkhalter, Swiss Foreign Minister and OSCE Chairperson-in-Office, urged Russian President Vladimir Putin to cooperate with the OSCE in sending observers to Crimea and called for a long-term perspective of Ukraine’s territorial integrity. The conversation between the two also focused on the possibility and conditions needed to establish an “international contact group” on the current Ukrainian crisis.
   
• 1,500 Russian paratroops have landed in the Rostov region of Russia that borders Ukraine to conduct military exercises, according to the Russian Defense Ministry. Troops will also be assembled in Belgorod and Kursk near Russia’s Ukrainian border.
   
• Interim Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk held a Q&A at the Atlantic Council on March 12 after his talks with President Obama and will hold an open meeting with the UN Security Council today in New York City.
   
• In joint remarks delivered following a private meeting between President Obama and Interim Ukrainian Prime Minister Yatsenyuk, Obama declared that “the most pressing challenge that Ukraine faces at the moment …is the threat to its territorial integrity and its sovereignty.” Obama also declared that the U.S. sees Russia’s actions in Crimea to be against international law. Yatsenyuk stated that the Ukrainian government is willing to consider bilateral talks with Russia but will not surrender its freedom or right to its territorial integrity.
     
• The Ukrainian Parliament has adopted a bill creating a Ukrainian National Guard comprising 60,000 troops. The force’s duty is to counteract “military aggression against Ukraine and liquidation of a military conflict by conducting military operations and fulfilling the tasks of territorial defense.” 
   
• The Senate Foreign Relations Committee voted 14-3 in support of a bill that includes a $1 billion loan guarantee to Ukraine. The bill now goes to the full Senate for a vote. If it passes, it would then go to the House of Representatives for approval before becoming law. However, a passage of the bill could be delayed, as several Republicans, including Representative Buck McKeon (R-CA), chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, have already expressed opposition to the bill because of its linkage with broader IMF reforms. 

Government Statements

The White House Office of the Press Secretary, remarks by President Obama and Ukraine Prime Minister Yatsenyuk after their Bilateral Meeting – March 12, 2014

Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine Statement on National Guards – March 13, 2014

OSCE – A briefing will be held in Vienna to discuss a recent visit to Ukraine – March 13, 2014

Analytical Pieces

Thomas De Waal, “Toward a Scottish Solution for Crimea,” The Wall Street Journal, March 11, 2014

Wojciech Konończuk, “Russia’s Real Aims in Crimea,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, March 13, 2014 

Geoff Dyer, “In the Battle for Crimea, China Wins: How Beijing stands to gain from Russia's invasion of Ukraine,” Foreign Policy, March 13, 2014

Daniel F. Runde, and Conor M. Savoy “Providing Aid to Ukraine is in the National Interest,” Center for Strategic and International Studies, March 12, 2014

Meghan L. O'Sullivan, “A Better Energy Weapon to Stop Putin,” Bloomberg View, March 11, 2014