Politics and Governance

Daily Ukraine Crisis Updates – May 5, 2014

EWI offers a daily situation report on Ukraine.

Internal Security News: 

  • (Interfax Ukraine) A Mi-24 helicopter of the Armed Forces of Ukraine was shot down from a heavy machine gun outside Sloviansk on May 5. The Ukrainian Defense Ministry indicated the pilots survived. 
     
  • The Ukrainian Interior Ministry reported four servicemen were killed and 30 injured during a military operation on May 5 outside Sloviansk. Ukrainian forces drove pro-Russian militants deeper into the city as they retook a TV tower. RIA Novosti reported that a civilian woman was killed by a stray bullet and six were injured during an attack on a separatist-manned roadblock in the city. Ukraine’s Security Services stated that pro-Russian activists continue to destabilize the situation in east Ukraine.
     
  • A unity rally in Odessa was attacked by pro-Russian separatists on May 2, which sparked violence in the city, resulting in a fire in the Trade Unions House. 46 people (mostly pro-Russian activists) were killed and over 200 injured, with 144 detained by security services. The Ukrainian Interior Ministry claimed that the fire was started by pro-Russians using Molotov cocktails inside the building, though other accounts cite the use of Molotov cocktails by both sides. Ukrainian PM Yatsenyuk accused Odessa’s security services and law enforcement office of being inefficient, saying they had “done nothing to stop this crackdown” and had “violated the law.” 
     
  • (Interfax Ukraine) Ukrainian police succumbed to pressure from a local mob on May 5 and released 67 individuals who had been detained for taking part in the clash in Odessa. The Ukrainian Interior Ministry’s public relations department stated that the decision was made by regional prosecutors “at the protesters’ request;” however, Reuters reported that protesters had been released after a crowd broke down the main gate of the prison at which they were held. Interior Minister Arsen Avakov stated that “police in Odessa acted in a totally disorderly, possibly criminal way” by releasing the detainees, while PM Yatsenyuk implied that they were corrupt. An additional 42 detainees were transported from Odessa to a central region of Ukraine.
     
  • PrivatBank, Ukraine's largest bank, "temporarily" closed branches in separatist-held Donetsk and Luhansk on May 5, saying it could no longer carry out cash transactions in regions riddled with crime that could "threaten the lives" of its workers. A PrivatBank branch in Mariupol was set on fire on May 4, while several other branches, ATMs and bank vehicles in Donetsk and Luhansk were vandalized, set on fire and broken into over the weekend. 
     
  • (ITAR-TASS) Fighting between government troops and pro-Russian militants continued in Kramatorsk over May 2-3, as Ukrainian forces retook a television station and the local SBU headquarters, resulting in the deaths of 10 insurgents. Some accounts maintained that the militants subsequently retook the SBU headquarters. RIA Novosti reported on May 5 that militants still held the buildings of the Interior Ministry and Security Service as well as others, with Ukrainian troops in control of most of the city excluding the center. 
     

International Observation News: 

  • OSCE Chairman Didier Burkhalter was scheduled to arrive in Moscow on May 7. 
     
  • OSCE observers held by pro-Russian separatists were released on May 3 “without conditions.” The special representative to Russian President Putin called the conditions in which the observers were held acceptable. 
     
  • (RIA Novosti) The Russian Civic Chamber announced on May 5 its intention to appeal to the UN and the European Council to postpone the presidential election in Ukraine currently scheduled for May 25.
     
  • (ITAR-TASS) Germany’s Ministry of Defense stated on May 5 that it does not intend to send military observers to Ukraine in the framework of a possible new mission of the OSCE.

 

Constitutional Reform News: 

  • (ITAR-TASS) Ukrainian PM Yatsenyuk submitted a bill to the Verkohvna Rada on May 5 proposing holding a poll on May 25 on issues related to the territorial integrity, national unity and the decentralization of power within Ukraine. 
     

Diplomacy News: 

  • German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier called on May 5 for a second international conference in Geneva. He said one way to "put an end" to Ukraine's violence was OSCE mediation at local level across Ukraine.
     
  • (Interfax Ukraine) The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry said on May 5 that a place and date for the second round of multilateral talks on Ukraine are not known yet, but it could take place on May 25, when the first round of early presidential elections is to be held in Ukraine. The ministry spokesman also stated that the talks could be held prior to the elections. 
     
  • (RIA Novosti) The Russian Foreign Ministry said that FM Sergei Lavrov was due to attend a ministerial meeting at the Council of Europe in Vienna the week of May 5 amid the ongoing crisis in Ukraine.
     
  • (Interfax Ukraine) Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk was scheduled to visit the European Commission on May 13.
     
  • German Chancellor Merkel’s spokesperson stated on May 5 that Germany believes that a referendum planned by pro-Russian separatists in the eastern Ukraine city of Donetsk the week of May 12 would violate the constitution of the country and make the situation there even worse.
     
  • (RIA Novosti) The Russian Foreign Ministry issued a statement on May 5 announcing its compilation of a ‘white book’ detailing human rights violations allegedly committed in Ukraine. The book “shows the grossest violations of the fundamental international principles and norms in the area of human rights committed by the monopolizing protesters of Euro-Maidan and its radical nationalists, and sometimes with the direct promotion of the United States and the European Union, which confirms that these occurrences had a massive character.”
     
  • A Kremlin spokesman stated on May 3 that Russia is receiving is receiving “thousands” of calls for assistance from Russian speakers in eastern Ukraine, and it has not yet decided on a response.
     
  • US President Obama and German Chancellor Merkel announced in a joint press conference on May 2 that the US and Germany are prepared to launch broader sanctions against Russia should the Ukrainian election of May 25 be disrupted. Obama stated that the US would move to “a broader-based sectoral sanctions regime” should Russia impede the election, while Merkel voiced support for a move to wider sanctions and said the European Union and the United States would continue to work in concert on the issue.
     
  • US President Obama stated on May 2 that "It is obvious to the world that these Russian-backed groups are not peaceful protesters. They are heavily armed militants." 
     

Governance News: 

  • Dmitry Peskov, Vladimir Putin’s spokesman, said on 4 May that it would be “absurd” for Ukrainian authorities to push forward with the May 25 presidential vote following the violence in the southern port city of Odessa and Kiev’s military operations to dislodge pro-Russian separatists from towns in the east.
     
  • (Interfax Ukraine) Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry reiterated on May 5 its intent to move forward with elections, stating, “We do not accept any initiatives to put off the elections, set for May 25. The elections will be held as planned. All other initiatives are aimed exclusively at upsetting stability in Ukraine and continuing Russia's interference in Ukraine's internal affairs.”
     
  • A plenary meeting of the Verkhovna Rada was slated to be held behind closed doors on May 6. 
     
  • (RIA Novosti) Members of the Ukrainian parliament from the right-wing Svoboda party introduced a bill on May 5 intending to ban symbols associated with Russia, including the black-and-orange St. George ribbons adopted by pro-Russian militants, referred to in the bill as “extremism instigators and separatists.”

Chernobyl: Political Half-life of an Ongoing Nuclear Crisis

Reflecting on the 28th anniversary of the Chernobyl nuclear plant disaster, EWI's Nadiya Kostyuk warns that unless Europe commits to removing the remaining radioactive materials from the Chernobyl site, it will face a second nuclear catastrophe.  

Twenty-eight years ago on May 1, 1986, tens of thousands of children marched on the main street of Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital, in its Labor Day Parade. Unaware and unprotected, these smiling and laughing children celebrated the holiday without being told that only five days prior, a nuclear explosion took place in Chernobyl, a small city located 80 kilometers (approximately 50 miles) away. The government purposely hid the truth from the population to avoid dampening the joyous atmosphere of Den Pratsi—the biggest Soviet holiday celebrating the working class. Many of those children developed leukemia at various stages of their lives. No preventative measures were taken to ensure the public’s safety after the catastrophic Chernobyl events. If only those children had worn protective clothing–or been instructed to stay inside–their fates could have been different. 

Even though nuclear plant disasters had occurred prior to Chernobyl (such as the 1979 Three Mile Island disaster in Pennsylvania), the scale of the Chernobyl meltdown changed the world’s opinion on the use of nuclear power, and demonstrated the far-reaching effects of nuclear radiation, without respect for sovereign borders. Millions of people in Ukraine and neighboring nations, such as Belarus, western Russia, Finland and Sweden suffered significant emotional, psychological and physical injuries, which are still being felt today—28 years later. The level of radiation released from the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant (CNPP) was a hundred times “more powerful than the bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki” and caused the “release of over a hundred types of radioactive material into the environment.” Some of those elements—Strontium, Cesium (both linked to leukemia and liver cancers) and Iodine (which harms the thyroid gland in children)—contaminate the environment to this day, having spread over great distances. There are still hot regions, where the level of radiation is 15 times higher than the level produced during chest x-rays. According to a 2005 UN report, long-term cancers that occurred as a result of the Chernobyl Nuclear Disaster (CND) will eventually kill about 4,000 people. Moreover, over 2.25 million people have been affected as a result of the widespread radiation—among them, 260 liquidators (nuclear plant cleanup workers) and a half million children

The Ukrainian government has forsaken its Chernobyl victims. The main law addressing the disaster was adopted during Soviet times and paid for by the USSR budget. When Ukraine gained independence, it did not have enough financial resources to pay the same benefits to its population. Most benefits for the Chernobiltsi are recorded in laws, but inaccessible. For instance, a 55-year old Category A liquidator, disabled due to the CND, was “forced to work during the liquidation period… otherwise [he] would be sent to prison.” He shared that, “free medicine is only on paper… most procedures effective for my treatment are expensive, as they involve special equipment.” The Ukrainian bureaucracy’s ineffective handling of the CND legacy can be attributed to the its high level of corruption, which leads to a lack of funding, and thus, to the violation of the rights to “life, adequate standard of living and the enjoyment of the highest attainable standards of physical and mental health.”

Sadly, the liquidators and other CND victims are remembered only at politically-important times, such as an election season and before the Chernobyl anniversary. The government and media talk of new remedies and upcoming changes, such as “the need to improve pensions of Chernobyl victims.” Before the 2010 election, pensions were increased by 120 hryvnias ($10.6 USD). Yet once a politician is in office, “he [or she] totally forgets about the promises made.” New problems occur and “Chernobyl is forgotten,” at least until the next anniversary or election cycle. This year, as politicians debate the situation in Eastern Ukraine, no one even has time to talk about Chernobyl. 

Lack of funding has also limited Chernobyl responses. One proposed solution—the creation of a new safety cover that would cost approximately 980 million euros, and would ensure the safety of the reactor for about a 100 years—was set to be completed by 2015 by French Novarka Consortium. However, the international financial support has been significantly reduced. Additionally, the UN action plan Vision for 2016 assumes that national budgetary support “for contaminated regions [will be] substantially reduced,” and falsely assumes that the problem is mostly solved. Foreign aid, including €110 million from the EU in April 2011, is often criticized as an effort to “alleviate the Chernobyl situation in the eyes of many commentators and decision makers.” 

Tensions between Russia and Ukraine have further complicated ongoing Chernobyl cleanup projects, and the conflict could delay a $2.1 billion U.S. project—a 250-meter-wide sarcophagus to cover an existing, hastily-constructed structure next to the Belarussian-Ukrainian border—for two years. As a result, the replacement of temporary shelters, such as “Object Shelter,” originally meant for only short-term protection against radiation leakages, will be compromised. 

Ukrainian lawmaker Valerii Kalchenko doubts that Russia will continue to provide funding, as it has abandoned its G-8 obligations to lead fundraising for the sarcophagus cost overruns. Kalchenko forecasts that Ukrainians, together with the international community, have only three or four years to finish the project—time that we cannot afford to lose to the Ukrainian-Russian dispute.

Moreover, around 95 percent of the “original radioactive inventory of reactor Unit 4 remains inside the ruins of the reactor building.” It is far from hyperbole to say that without funding or adhering to containment schedules, Europe will face a second nuclear catastrophe from the same site. 

Thousands of people might be affected if Europe continues to falter at meeting already-established arrangements and fails to cooperate on this pressing issue. Even if these projects are built on time, the Chernobyl problem will not be completely solved: removing the remaining radioactive materials will be the next dangerous, costly and time-consuming task. 

Nadiya Kostyuk is a program coordinator for EWI's Worldwide Cybersecurity Initiative. She grew up in Berezne, Ukraine. 

Photo Credit: Pedro Moura Pinheiro/Flickr

Daily Ukraine Crisis Updates – May 2, 2014

EWI offers a daily situation report on Ukraine.

Internal Security News:

  • An “anti-terror” operation was launched to clear the city of Sloviansk of pro-Russian militants. During this operation, militants shot down two of Ukraine's army helicopters; the Ukrainian government said that a pilot and serviceman had been killed, four suspected separatists held and 10 rebel checkpoints seized. Four insurgents in Sloviansk were later detained by Ukrainian law enforcement under suspicion of involvement in the helicopter shooting. 
     
  • The Ukrainian Interior Ministry announced that the National Guard had “practically cleared Sloviansk of the terrorists” following the military operation in the city. A source within the pro-Russian militant groups claimed that the Ukrainian military controlled only a few streets in the suburbs of Sloviansk, and that the “self-defense” fighters continued to remain in control of the majority of the city. 
     
  • (RIA Novosti) a representative of the self-proclaimed "people's mayor" of Sloviansk said that negotiations on the exchange of captive OSCE observers for arrested militia leaders were held but were halted due to the military operation in Sloviansk. 
     
  • A 1,000-person rally for Ukrainian unity in Odessa was attacked by pro-Russian activists. Shots were fired, and some noise grenades were used in the clash. Police were seen interfering in the clash.
     
  • The Interior Ministry said that pro-Russian separatists left the prosecutor's office and television center in Luhansk.
     
  • (Interfax Ukraine) Ukrainian President Turchynov signed a decree reinstituting military conscription for male citizens aged 18-25. The decree cites “undisguised aggression” of pro-Russian armed groups and the “exacerbation” of the sociopolitical situation in southeastern Ukraine as impetus and stipulates that the draft campaign will be conducted in May-July 2014.
     
  • Ukrainian PM Yatsenyuk said that his country was entering its "most dangerous 10 days" since independence in 1991 and was struggling to counter pro-Russian separatists on the verge of taking over the industrialized eastern heartland.
     

Diplomacy:

  • (RIA Novosti) A Kremlin spokesman called the Ukrainian military’s operation to clear Sloviansk “a punitive operation that destroyed the last hope for Geneva Accords to be effective.”
     
  • The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry rejected the Russian side's accusations that Ukraine is not fulfilling the Geneva agreements.
     
  • (RIA Novosti) A statement from the Central Committee of the Communist Party in Russia said that the Ukrainian military’s operation in Sloviansk was, “fully sanctioned by the U.S. and its NATO allies.” The statement also asserted that, “all this poses a threat to Russia's security."
     
  • Russia's Foreign Ministry called on Western powers to give up their "destructive" policy on Ukraine and urged Kyiv to stop its "punitive operation" in the south-east of the country. "This will allow a real process of de-escalation to begin," the ministry said in a statement.
     
  • (ITAR-TASS) Ukraine banned Russian passenger airline flights to Donetsk or Kharkiv. 
     
  • A spokeswoman for EU Foreign Policy Chief Catherine Ashton told reporters that, “We are following with growing concern the events in eastern Ukraine.”
     
  • (ITAR-TASS) The European Commissioner for Energy said that the EU believes the price of Russia’s gas should be the same for all member countries and noted the need to create a pan-European gas and electricity distribution networks. "We want a single price for (Russian) gas on the common European market.”
     
  • (RIA Novosti) Russian, Ukraine and the EU failed to agree on gas supply issues at a meeting in Warsaw. Further tripartite meetings were expected to take place in subsequent weeks.
     

Governance: 

  • The leader of the Third Ukrainian Republic movement, former Ukrainian Interior Minister Yuriy Lutsenko, said that there are legal grounds to ban the Regions Party and the Communist Party.

Daily Ukraine Crisis Updates – April 30, 2014

EWI offers a daily situation report on Ukraine.

Internal Security News:

  • Unrest continued in eastern Ukraine. Pro-Russian militants seized the Alchevsk city council building in Luhansk. Militants also took over the government tax collection office and eastern customs office in Donetsk and kidnapped a Donetsk Electoral Commission member. In Horlivka, armed pro-Russian men stormed a city council building.
  • (Interfax Ukraine) Ukrainian armed forces were placed on combat alert due to the threat of Russian hostilities said Oleksandr Turchynov, Ukraine’s acting president.
  • In a meeting with regional governors, acting Ukrainian President Oleksandr Turchynov said that the country is "helpless" to quell pro-Russian separatist movements in the east.

Constitutional Reform News:

International Observation News:

  • (ITAR-TASS) A German Foreign Ministry spokesman stated that negotiations with those holding OSCE members hostage in Sloviansk are difficult as “there is still no direct contact.”
  • (Interfax Ukraine) Austria’s Foreign Minister said that Austria hopes the OSCE hostages will be released “without any additional conditions.”

Diplomacy News:

  • (ITAR-TASS) German Chancellor Merkel stated that further sanctions against Russia could be imposed if the situation with Ukraine does not de-escalate.
     
  • European Council President Herman Van Rompuy stated that the Ukrainian government has taken a number of steps to fulfill its obligations as part of the Geneva accords.
  • (RIA Novosti) Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Deshchytsia stated that he hopes to hold talks with his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, on the release of OSCE military observers detained in eastern Ukraine.

Governance News:

  • (ITAR-TASS) The Party of Regions called for the removal of Interior Minister Arsen Avakov from an investigation into the attempted assassination of Kharkiv’s mayor, citing known hostility between the two.

 

 

In the Presence of Raw Courage

Riveting Roundtable Discussion on EWI’s Stronger Together Report 

The EastWest Institute hosted a lively roundtable discussion where it launched its Stronger Together: Women Parliamentarians in Joint Action for Peace and Security report on April 29, 2014, at its New York center. The report focuses on the partnership activities that the institute’s Parliamentarians Network for Conflict Prevention has been undertaking with Women’s Action for New Directions (WAND) in consolidating international support for the implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1325 on Women, Peace and Security. 

State Senator Nan Orrock from Georgia, currently the president of Women Legislators' Lobby (WiLL), is a veteran of the civil rights movement, and in reflecting on the exchanges, said she felt that she was once again “in the presence of raw courage” when she heard about the stories of politicians in Afghanistan or Pakistan receiving death threats. 

Two international exchanges with parliamentarians from Afghanistan, Egypt, Tunisia, Morocco and Pakistan, joined by U.S. state legislators resulted in a coalition of women political leaders ready to take on the challenges of promoting the Women, Peace and Security agenda both domestically as well as on international platforms.

Throughout the well-attended roundtable discussion by members from civil society organizations, representatives of governments and of UN, the issue of the National Action Plan (NAP) came up several times. Participants pointed out that only 46 countries in the world have one and that the NAP content, when it does exist, lacks the budgeting for implementation. The countries that claim that they do not need NAP, because they are societies that do not suffer from conflict, most often seen in the traditional sense of the word, are not recognizing a systemic problem with insidious consequences.

Ambassador Chowdhury, former Under Secretary General and High Representative of the United Nations stood at the bedrock of Resolution 1325 as the president of the UN Security Council back in 2000. He has a clear message for countries hiding behind such excuses. “No country can claim not to be in conflict if women do not have equal rights,” Ambassador Chowdhury said. 

As the 15th anniversary of resolution 1325 in 2015 approaches, participants want to see a seismic shift  from commitments to accomplishments. This means more NAPs, more budgets to implement existing NAPs, and more innovative drafting of NAPs, rather than a listing of current activities on gender mainstreaming. It is essential that the global community works to guarantee the fundamental rights of half the world’s population. 

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Click here to view pictures from the event on Flickr

Click here to read a write up of the event on The Celock Report

 

The Internet’s First Town Meeting?

EWI’s Senior Vice President Bruce McConnell attended the NETmundial meeting in São Paulo and comments on its historical significance.

“The Internet is the greatest revolution in human history.” Neelie Kroes, Vice President, European Commission, at NETmundial.  

Just weeks before the World Cup, the Brazilian government hosted 800 people in São Paulo at the two-day “NETmundial” meeting to discuss Internet governance principles and institutional structures. Roughly equally divided among representatives of governments, corporations, civil society and technologists, the in-person participants were supplemented by hundreds of netizens assembled in “remote hubs” on every continent.

The meeting opened with a video featuring vignettes of young people smiling and saying “It’s My Internet!” Brazilian president Dilma Rousseff followed by signing with great flourish the just-passed “Marco Civil,” a law establishing a comprehensive framework of privacy and other legal protections for consumers and providers of the Internet in Brazil. With three billion users now online, and the impending arrival of billions more from developing countries, it is surely time to figure out how this global resource will be managed.   

A sense of being present at an unprecedented moment in the discourse regarding the future of the Net pervaded the proceedings. The purpose of the conference, announced last summer by Rousseff after she learned her cell phone had been hacked by NSA, shifted in the ensuing months from a potential NSA-bashfest to an experiment using “multistakeholderism” to produce a 12-page non-binding “outcomes” document. While a majority present may have shared the view of one young Indian netizen that governments and companies are merely trustees of the Internet on behalf of the people who use it, the advocates of more traditional values and international decision-making processes were a vocal, if at times, unwelcome minority.

On the government side, senior delegations came from Brazil, Canada, the EU, Germany and the U.S., along with official representation from China, India, Iran, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Korea and most of Latin America. Governmental attitudes ranged from hopeful, to cynical, to disoriented. Civil society, on the other hand, enjoyed the limelight and the opportunity to advocate publically on human rights, gender balance, net neutrality, free access to information and surveillance. These themes are reflected, albeit somewhat tentatively, in the conference’s final product. The technical and academic community was fascinated, and very much in their element. Companies, with good reason, were nervous: while the outcome is non-binding, it could become fodder for incorporation in the International Telecommunication Regulations that will be revised in October at a meeting in South Korea. 

Multistakeholderism, like many young life forms, is an awkward and somewhat tentative thing. Seven languages spoken with consecutive translation, four sectors represented plus the remote hubs, representatives standing in line to make two-minute interventions, and the open observation of the small drafting groups produced a slow and only “rough” consensus. And, with no governmental representatives on the drafting groups, one had the unique experience of seeing Canadian, German and U.S. cyber ambassadors leaning in, straining to try to hear the deliberations. 

The agenda for human rights (and precious little was heard about the responsibilities that attend rights) was fired by post-Snowden concerns: freedom of expression requires privacy, and governments have the primary legal and political responsibility to enforce human rights. And yet they are the architects of mass surveillance, coercing unwilling firms into participation. Indeed, even a Chinese data services provider argued for a safe harbor from liability to their customers in such coerced situations. The outcome document implies that the actions of such intermediaries should be subject to international human rights norms, as a matter of policy if not of law. Rousseff noted that human rights thrive under the shelter of the state, not in its absence. 

This meeting may have been the first convocation of a global Internet polity, focused on “what benefits humanity as a whole” and working toward what World Wide Web inventor Tim Berners-Lee termed a “global Magna Carta” to make the Internet a “territory of trust.” Yet, a variety of governments, including China, Cuba, Ecuador, India, Indonesia, Russia and Saudi Arabia defended traditional multilateral processes for making global decisions, along with the sovereign rights of the state in Internet matters within their boundaries. The state is apparently not dead yet, even on the Internet. 

In the end, the answer to the question, “Is the meeting about governance of the Internet on the Internet, or in the era of the Internet?” seemed to be “All of the above.” The Internet, a force for democratization, must itself be democratically managed, and the movement to inculcate multistakeholderism into other international organizations was just launched in São Paulo. 

Photo credit: Blog do Planalto

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Bruce McConnell piece also appeared on the Foreign Policy Association Blog and the International Policy Digest

Daily Ukraine Crisis Updates – April 29, 2014

EWI offers a daily situation report on Ukraine.

Internal Security News

  • The self-declared mayor of a separatist-held town in eastern Ukraine said he would discuss the release of detained military observers with the West only if the EU dropped sanctions against rebel leaders.
  • (Interfax Ukraine) Police freed participants in a Donetsk rally for Ukraine's unity who were detained by pro-Russian activists.
  • Ukraine's deputy foreign minister, Danylo Lubkivsky, said that Ukraine and the OSCE have jointly devised a plan to liberate OSCE military inspectors from captivity in Sloviansk.
  • The mayor of Kharkiv, who was targeted in an assassination attempt on April 28, was flown to an Israeli hospital where he remained in critical but stable condition.

Constitutional Reform News

  • (Interfax Ukraine) Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatseniuk urged MPs to prepare and agree on a bill of constitutional amendments by May 25.
     
  • (ITAR-TASS) Ukrainian Prime Minister Yatsenyuk said that constitutional reform should be aimed at power decentralization and transferring authority to the local level.
     
  • An all-Ukrainian referendum could be held during the second round of presidential elections when there is the “necessary legal framework for its holding,” according to acting Batkivschyna faction leader Serhiy Sobolev.

International Observation News

Diplomacy News

  • (RIA Novosti) Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said that Moscow has drafted its response to Western sanctions imposed this week, with a range of measures expected to be introduced soon.
  • Ryabkov also stated that Russia was "not at all inclined to repeat the so-called Crimea scenario in southeastern Ukraine".
  • Moscow voiced concern over an "unprecedented" increase in U.S. and NATO military activity near Russian borders.
  • Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said that the U.S. had "essentially lowered an 'Iron Curtain'" by targeting Russia's high-tech sector.
  • U.S. credit card firm Visa said it would suspend network services to two Russian banks sanctioned by the United States.
  • (Interfax Ukraine) EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton expressed concern over the deteriorating security situation in southeastern Ukraine, and the "downward spiral of violence and intimidation" undermining the functioning of the legitimate state institutions.

Governance News

  • (RIA Novosti) Pro-Russian presidential candidate Oleg Tsarev withdrew from the race ahead of the May 25 referendum.

Austin Writes for New Europe on Failures of Diplomacy in Ukraine

There were clear warning signs to the Ukraine crisis, says EWI's Professorial Fellow Greg Austin. "If we want to get that future plan right, we do need to have some understanding of what went wrong."  

Read the full piece here on New Europe

Perhaps the current situation of Ukraine was inevitable in some way, given the emerging realities through the last several years. Inevitable or not, it was certainly foreseen.

In 2009, a group of eminent persons convened by the EastWest Institute warned of a possible crisis in and around Ukraine. The report documented a collapse of trust between NATO and the West, especially after the short military conflict in Georgia in 2008, and the failure of Europe’s institutions to address the basic challenges that surfaced in that unhappy event. “NATO and Russia have declared that they are no longer enemies”, the report noted. “They need to agree just what that means in terms of a number of important military/political issues.” It went on to say that the “heated debates over NATO expansion … provide the proof that the two sides have not yet made that fundamental settlement.”

It was absence of a fundamental settlement that prevented collaboration between Russia, Europe and the United States to help Ukraine through its crisis in the last five years and, more recently, since November last year.

The 2009 report warned that “If not corrected, those trends will produce negative strategic consequences for the future stability of Europe as a whole. This may be playing out in Ukraine, which is experiencing high levels of internal political tension at a time of a profound economic crisis.” And so it came to pass.

The report, titled EuroAtlantic Security: One Vision, Three Paths made several recommendations. Some are still relevant today, albeit with some adjustment. One set of recommendations (one of the three paths) that argued for a fundamental transformation of security relations, had warned that “there will be no reversal of the deteriorating trends in security relationships unless political leaders find a way to move decisively toward the joint decision-making and joint problem-solving in this sphere that are foreshadowed in the NATO-Russia Founding Act.” To address this, some members of the group recommended a mechanism to escape the unstable and narrowly conceived structure represented by the NATO Russia Council (NRC). One proposal was to create a new structure at EuroAtlantic level that would bring the heads of state of Russia, the EU and the United States together to create the necessary political channel which was missing in the NRC. This idea also had the advantage of modernising the Europe/Russia security relationship through a structure not dependent on NATO, Moscow’s historic adversary. Russians often complained that the NRC was really a “28 against 1” structure in which its voice was not taken seriously.

Given events in Ukraine so far in 2014, it is hard to imagine that the relationship between NATO and Russia will stabilise any time soon. Also, it may seem to many observers that the time is simply not right to think about the bigger picture while the very future of Ukraine is in peril. Yet we do need to look ahead to begin to imagine what a new, predictable and trusting security relationship between Russia and the rest of Europe will look like.

If we want to get that future plan right, we do need to have some understanding of what went wrong. Why was this crisis not avoided? One answer to this is that powerful NATO leaders wanted Ukraine to have the right to join it, while Russia was opposed to that right—the two views were irreconcilable and thus a security crisis in and over Ukraine was inevitable. Another answer, more serious in its implications, is that the diplomats on both sides failed to heed the clear warning signs, visible at least five years out, and failed to take appropriate preventive measures.

Photo credit: Sasha Maksymenko 

Gady Discusses Ukraine on PBS NewsHour

What can history tell us about today's unrest in Ukraine? 

EWI Senior Fellow Franz-Stefan Gady weighs in on Ukraine's complicated past with Russia that dates back centuries. "Ukraine in one way or the other was always a pawn between great powers throughout its history; and that, I think, is not something that's going to go away," says Gady.

View the full clip here at PBS NewsHour

Gady appears at 3:51 and 10:01.

Photo Credit: spylaw01

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